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Bitcoin Power Law ModelBitcoin Power Law Model with Cycle Predictions Scientific Price Modeling for Bitcoin This indicator implements **Dr. Giovanni Santostasi's Bitcoin Power Law Theory** - a discovery that Bitcoin's price follows mathematical laws similar to natural phenomena. Unlike traditional financial models, this treats Bitcoin as a scale-invariant system that grows predictably over time. What Makes This Special Dr. Santostasi, an astrophysicist who studied gravitational waves, discovered that Bitcoin's price forms a perfect straight line when plotted on a log-log scale over its entire 15-year history. This isn't just another technical indicator - it's a fundamental law that has held true through multiple 80%+ crashes and recoveries. Core Features Power Law Model - Orange Line: The power law trajectory showing Bitcoin's long-term growth path - Yellow Line: Fair value (geometric mean between support and resistance) - Green/Red Bands: Support and resistance levels that have historically contained price movements - Band Position %: Shows exactly where price sits within the power law channel (0-100%) How to Use It For Long-term Investors 1. Accumulate when price is near the green support line (band position < 20%) 2. Hold when price is between the bands 3. Consider profits when approaching red resistance (band position > 80%) 4. Never panic - the model shows $30K+ is now the permanent floor Key Metrics to Watch - **Band Position: <20% = Oversold, >80% = Overbought - Fair Value: Price above = Overvalued, below = Undervalued - Support Line: Breaking below suggests model invalidation Current Cycle Projections Based on the November 2022 bottom at ~$15,500: - Cycle Peak: ~$155,000-$230,000 (October 2025) - Next Bottom: ~$70,000-$100,000 (October 2026) - Long-term: $1 million by 2033 (power law projection) Customizable Settings Model Parameters - Intercept & Slope: Fine-tune the power law formula - Band Offsets: Adjust support/resistance distances Display Options - Toggle each visual element on/off - Show/hide future projections - Enable/disable cycle analysis - Customize halving markers Understanding the Math The model uses the formula: **Price = 10^(A + B × log10(days since genesis))** Where: - A = -17.01 (intercept) - B = 5.82 (slope) - Days counted from Bitcoin's genesis block (Jan 3, 2009) This creates parallel support/resistance lines in log-log space that have contained Bitcoin's price for 15+ years. Important 1.Not Financial Advice: This is a mathematical model, not a guarantee 2. Long-term Focus: Best suited for macro analysis, not day trading 3. Model Limitations: Past performance doesn't ensure future results 4. Volatility Expected: 50-80% drawdowns are normal within the model Background Dr. Giovanni Santostasi discovered this model while analyzing Bitcoin through the lens of physics. He found that Bitcoin behaves more like a city or organism than a financial asset, growing according to universal power laws found throughout
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CryptoForMoney tarafından
Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Price Bands# Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Price Bands Overview This indicator implements the famous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model created by PlanB (@100trillionUSD), which uses Bitcoin's scarcity to predict its long-term value. The S2F model has gained significant attention for its historical accuracy in capturing Bitcoin's price movements across multiple market cycles. What is Stock-to-Flow? Stock-to-Flow is a ratio that measures scarcity by dividing the current supply (stock) by the annual production (flow). The model suggests that as Bitcoin becomes scarcer through halving events, its value should increase proportionally. This indicator features: Dynamic S2F Calculation - Automatically calculates Bitcoin's current supply based on block height - Adjusts for halving events (every 210,000 blocks) - Updates the S2F ratio in real-time Visual Elements - Orange Line: S2F model price based on the formula: Price = 0.4 × S2F³ - Confidence Bands: Upper (red) and lower (green) bands showing expected price ranges - Colored Candles: Green when above model price, red when below - Info Table: Displays current S2F ratio, model price, actual price, and price multiple Customizable Parameters - Model Coefficient: Adjust the multiplier (default: 0.4) - Model Exponent: Modify the power factor (default: 3.0) - Band Width: Control confidence band spread (1-5 standard deviations) - Display Options: Toggle individual elements on/off Built-in Alerts - Price crossing above/below S2F model price - Price exceeding upper/lower confidence bands How to Use 1. Trend Identification: When price is above the orange S2F line, Bitcoin may be overvalued; below suggests undervaluation 2. Cycle Analysis: The model steps up at each halving, creating distinct price "floors" 3. Risk Management: Use confidence bands to identify extreme deviations from the model 4. Long-term Perspective: Best suited for macro analysis rather than short-term trading Important to understand: This is a model, not a guarantee. The S2F model: - Assumes scarcity is the primary driver of value - Doesn't account for demand-side factors - Has shown deviations during certain market conditions - Should be used alongside other analysis methods Model Performance Historically, the S2F model has captured major Bitcoin price movements: - 2013 Bull Run: Price followed model predictions - 2017 Peak: Reached model targets - 2021 Cycle: Initially tracked, then deviated - 2024-2025: Model suggests $500k-$1M potential Technical Details - Uses logarithmic regression similar to the original S2F model - Accounts for "lost" coins (est. 1M BTC from early mining) - Implements dynamic supply calculation through halving cycles - Confidence bands use log-normal distribution Best Timeframes - Weekly/Monthly: Ideal for long-term trend analysis Credits Based on the Stock-to-Flow model by PlanB (@100trillionUSD) Original article: "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity" (2019)
Pine Script® göstergesi
CryptoForMoney tarafından
Normalized Price Line with Adjustable Slope‑EMAThis anchored, normalized chart lets you see true percentage moves and swing pivots at a glance—removing guesswork about entry and exit levels. The noise‑filtered, slope‑colored EMAs then highlight only meaningful trend shifts, so you act on real momentum rather than every price twitch. By anchoring price to a single starting bar, the indicator turns absolute price into a scale‑free “performance” line, where a value of 1.25 means price is up 25% since the anchor, and 0.80 means it’s down 20%. Overlaying that with a midpoint “shelf” line shows key swing levels where price has historically bounced or broken through. When your normalized price crosses above or below this reclaim level, you get an immediate read on whether a swing recovery or breakdown is occurring. Layered on top are dynamically colored EMAs: a custom “Slope EMA” that changes color based on its recent slope, and classic 83‑ and 200‑period EMAs on the normalized series. The Slope EMA filters out noise by only turning your chosen up, down, or flat colors when its acceleration truly shifts. Meanwhile, crossovers of the faster 83‑EMA over the slower 200‑EMA give you traditional trend‑following confirmation. Together, these elements blend relative performance, structural support, and trend strength into one view—helping you spot higher‑probability entries and stay aligned with market momentum. Intended for advanced users because user options are nuanced. For example, this indicator plots relative performance rather than raw price, you’ll want to toggle between linear and logarithmic scales (via the “Log” button on the y‑axis) and use the “Anchor” button to lock in your starting reference. That way, every move is shown in the same “language” of percentage moves, ensuring you’re comparing apples to apples across timeframes.
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Crypto_Moses tarafından
Timed Trade Close AlertEnables you to set up alerts that can be used to close all trades when used in conjunction with web hooks. Firstly, you can enable a daily alert at a regular time to avoid spread blow outs during roll overs. ie: This will alert at the same time each day Additionally, you can enable and program up to 8 individual alerts to address news events or any other situations that you would want to halt your trading. The day, hour and minute can be adjusted according
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Shawn_Miles tarafından
1
Bollinger Bands📊 Bollinger Bands Strategy: Ride the Waves of Volatility 🌊 Bollinger Bands are a powerful tool to identify overbought and oversold conditions, volatility breakouts, and price reversals. This strategy uses: 🔹 Middle Band – 20-period simple moving average 🔹 Upper & Lower Bands – 2 standard deviations away from the SMA 💡 Strategy Logic: Buy Entry: When price closes below the lower band and RSI < 30 → Expect mean reversion. Sell Entry: When price closes above the upper band and RSI > 70 → Possible pullback. Exit: Near middle band or opposite band. 📈 You can also use Bollinger Band squeezes to detect upcoming breakouts. Less distance = low volatility → Expansion = potential big move! 🧠 Great for swing trading or intraday scalping with proper risk management.
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accountsbnlew tarafından
Trent_Finder V3EMA Inputs It uses 6 EMAs with customizable lengths (defaults: 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60). Trend Conditions Bullish Trend: All EMAs are strictly ordered from smallest to largest, meaning short-term prices are leading long-term prices upward. Bearish Trend: All EMAs are ordered from largest to smallest, meaning short-term prices are falling below long-term ones. Neutral: EMAs are mixed and do not meet the above criteria. Trend Tracking The script remembers the current trend and only flips when a full trend reversal condition is confirmed. Signals A Buy Signal appears when a bearish or neutral trend changes to bullish. A Sell Signal appears when a bullish or neutral trend flips to bearish. Visual Aids All 6 EMAs are plotted on the chart. Green Lines = Bullish trend Red Lines = Bearish trend Gray Lines = No trend (neutral) Buy/Sell markers appear at turning points.
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R-AlgoAI tarafından
1
Trent_Finder V3EMA Inputs It uses 6 EMAs with customizable lengths (defaults: 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60). Trend Conditions Bullish Trend: All EMAs are strictly ordered from smallest to largest, meaning short-term prices are leading long-term prices upward. Bearish Trend: All EMAs are ordered from largest to smallest, meaning short-term prices are falling below long-term ones. Neutral: EMAs are mixed and do not meet the above criteria. Trend Tracking The script remembers the current trend and only flips when a full trend reversal condition is confirmed. Signals A Buy Signal appears when a bearish or neutral trend changes to bullish. A Sell Signal appears when a bullish or neutral trend flips to bearish. Visual Aids All 6 EMAs are plotted on the chart. Green Lines = Bullish trend Red Lines = Bearish trend Gray Lines = No trend (neutral) Buy/Sell markers appear at turning points.
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R-AlgoAI tarafından
EMA 6/16/55/100/200 ฺBy Smurojคำอธิบายเป็นภาษาไทย ชุด EMA นี้ประกอบด้วยเส้นค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่แบบเอ็กซ์โปเนนเชียล (EMA) ระยะเวลาต่าง ๆ ซึ่งถูกนำมาใช้เพื่อวิเคราะห์แนวโน้มราคาในระยะต่าง ๆ ดังนี้: EMA 6 และ 16: ใช้สำหรับดูแนวโน้มระยะสั้นและการเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาที่รวดเร็ว EMA 55: เป็นแนวโน้มระยะกลาง EMA 100 และ 200: เป็นแนวโน้มระยะยาว ซึ่งช่วยดูภาพรวมของแนวโน้มตลาดในระดับลึก การใช้งานในการเทรด: ถ้าราคาอยู่เหนือ EMA ระยะต่าง ๆ แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้น ถ้าราคาอยู่ต่ำกว่า EMA ระยะต่าง ๆ แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง การตัดกันของ EMA สั้นและยาว เช่น EMA 6 ตัด EMA 16 ขึ้นบน อาจเป็นสัญญาณซื้อ การตัดกันในทางตรงกันข้าม อาจเป็นสัญญาณขาย การใช้หลายเส้นช่วยยืนยันแนวโน้มและลดความผิดพลาดในการตัดสินใจ English Explanation This EMA set consists of various Exponential Moving Average lines over different periods, which are used to analyze price trends across various timeframes: EMA 6 and 16: For short-term trend analysis and quick price changes. EMA 55: Represents a medium-term trend. EMA 100 and 200: Indicate long-term trends, helping to view the overall market direction. How to use in trading: When price is above these EMA lines, it suggests an uptrend. When price is below these EMA lines, it indicates a downtrend. Crossovers between short and longer EMAs (e.g., EMA 6 crossing above EMA 16) can signal buy opportunities. Conversely, crossovers downward can signal sell opportunities. Using multiple EMA lines helps confirm the trend and reduce false signals.
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smuroj tarafından
EMA 6/16/55/100/200คำอธิบายเป็นภาษาไทย ชุด EMA นี้ประกอบด้วยเส้นค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่แบบเอ็กซ์โปเนนเชียล (EMA) ระยะเวลาต่าง ๆ ซึ่งถูกนำมาใช้เพื่อวิเคราะห์แนวโน้มราคาในระยะต่าง ๆ ดังนี้: EMA 6 และ 16: ใช้สำหรับดูแนวโน้มระยะสั้นและการเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาที่รวดเร็ว EMA 55: เป็นแนวโน้มระยะกลาง EMA 100 และ 200: เป็นแนวโน้มระยะยาว ซึ่งช่วยดูภาพรวมของแนวโน้มตลาดในระดับลึก การใช้งานในการเทรด: ถ้าราคาอยู่เหนือ EMA ระยะต่าง ๆ แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้น ถ้าราคาอยู่ต่ำกว่า EMA ระยะต่าง ๆ แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง การตัดกันของ EMA สั้นและยาว เช่น EMA 6 ตัด EMA 16 ขึ้นบน อาจเป็นสัญญาณซื้อ การตัดกันในทางตรงกันข้าม อาจเป็นสัญญาณขาย การใช้หลายเส้นช่วยยืนยันแนวโน้มและลดความผิดพลาดในการตัดสินใจ English Explanation This EMA set consists of various Exponential Moving Average lines over different periods, which are used to analyze price trends across various timeframes: EMA 6 and 16: For short-term trend analysis and quick price changes. EMA 55: Represents a medium-term trend. EMA 100 and 200: Indicate long-term trends, helping to view the overall market direction. How to use in trading: When price is above these EMA lines, it suggests an uptrend. When price is below these EMA lines, it indicates a downtrend. Crossovers between short and longer EMAs (e.g., EMA 6 crossing above EMA 16) can signal buy opportunities. Conversely, crossovers downward can signal sell opportunities. Using multiple EMA lines helps confirm the trend and reduce false signals.
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smuroj tarafından
Breakout Detector (5-min)//@version=5 indicator("Breakout Detector (5-min)", overlay=true) // Define breakout range length = input.int(20, minval=1, title="Lookback Period") bullColor = color.green bearColor = color.red // Calculate highest high and lowest low of lookback period highestHigh = ta.highest(high, length) lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, length) // Detect breakout bullBreakout = close > highestHigh bearBreakout = close < lowestLow // Plot breakout signals plotshape(bullBreakout, title="Bullish Breakout", location=location.abovebar, color=bullColor, style=shape.triangleup, size=size.small) plotshape(bearBreakout, title="Bearish Breakout", location=location.belowbar, color=bearColor, style=shape.triangledown, size=size.small) // Optional: Background color for breakout bars bgcolor(bullBreakout ? color.new(bullColor, 85) : na) bgcolor(bearBreakout ? color.new(bearColor, 85) : na)
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toddkz2g4 tarafından
Multi-School Signal Indicator (Text Only)//@version=5 indicator("Multi-School Signal Indicator (Text Only)", overlay=true) // === المتوسطات (Trend) === maShort = ta.sma(close, 9) maLong = ta.sma(close, 21) ma200 = ta.sma(close, 200) trendUp = maShort > maLong and close > ma200 trendDown = maShort < maLong and close < ma200 // === الزخم (RSI) === rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14) rsiBull = rsi > 50 rsiBear = rsi < 50 // === الحجم (Volume) === vol = volume volMA = ta.sma(vol, 20) volHigh = vol > volMA // === شموع ابتلاعية === bullishEngulf = close < open and close > open and close > open and open < close bearishEngulf = close > open and close < open and close < open and open > close // === CHOCH (بسيط) === chochUp = close > high and low > low chochDown = close < low and high < high // === بولنجر باند === basis = ta.sma(close, 20) dev = ta.stdev(close, 20) upper = basis + 2 * dev lower = basis - 2 * dev bollingerBreakUp = close > upper bollingerBreakDown = close < lower // === دعم ومقاومة === support = ta.lowest(close, 20) resistance = ta.highest(close, 20) nearSupport = math.abs(close - support) / close < 0.01 nearResistance = math.abs(close - resistance) / close < 0.01 // === فيبوناتشي مبسط === fibLevel1 = close >= ta.valuewhen(close > maLong, close * 0.618, 0) fibLevel2 = close <= ta.valuewhen(close < maLong, close * 0.382, 0) // === إشارات الدخول === buyConditions = trendUp and rsiBull and volHigh and bullishEngulf and chochUp and bollingerBreakUp and nearSupport and fibLevel1 sellConditions = trendDown and rsiBear and volHigh and bearishEngulf and chochDown and bollingerBreakDown and nearResistance and fibLevel2 // === رسم الاختصارات بدون ألوان === if buyConditions label.new(bar_index, low, "BUY", style=label.style_label_up, textcolor=color.black, size=size.small, textalign=text.align_center) if sellConditions label.new(bar_index, high, "SELL", style=label.style_label_down, textcolor=color.black, size=size.small, textalign=text.align_center)
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taim1433 tarafından
SMC Smart Money Concepts//@version=5 indicator("SMC Smart Money Concepts", overlay=true) // === إعداد الهيكل السعري === // تحديد HH, HL, LL, LH pivotHigh = ta.pivothigh(high, 5, 5) pivotLow = ta.pivotlow(low, 5, 5) plotshape(pivotHigh, location=location.abovebar, style=shape.triangleup, color=color.red, title="Lower High") plotshape(pivotLow, location=location.belowbar, style=shape.triangledown, color=color.green, title="Higher Low") // === Break of Structure & CHoCH === bos = pivotHigh and close > high choch = pivotLow and close < low plotshape(bos, location=location.abovebar, color=color.blue, style=shape.labelup, text="BOS") plotshape(choch, location=location.belowbar, color=color.orange, style=shape.labeldown, text="CHOCH") // === Order Blocks (OB) === // نأخذ آخر شمعة صاعدة قبل هبوط قوي كمثال على OB bearishOB = high < high and close < open bullishOB = low > low and close > open plotshape(bearishOB, location=location.abovebar, color=color.maroon, style=shape.square, title="Bearish OB") plotshape(bullishOB, location=location.belowbar, color=color.lime, style=shape.square, title="Bullish OB") // === Fair Value Gap (FVG) === // إذا لم تلامس الشمعة التالية قاع أو قمة شمعتين قبليتين fvgBull = low > high fvgBear = high < low plotshape(fvgBull, location=location.belowbar, color=color.teal, style=shape.circle, title="Bullish FVG") plotshape(fvgBear, location=location.abovebar, color=color.fuchsia, style=shape.circle, title="Bearish FVG") // === السيولة (Liquidity Pools) === // تعتبر السيولة موجودة عند قمم أو قيعان واضحة liquidityHigh = high == ta.highest(high, 20) liquidityLow = low == ta.lowest(low, 20) plotshape(liquidityHigh, location=location.abovebar, color=color.purple, style=shape.cross, title="Liquidity High") plotshape(liquidityLow, location=location.belowbar, color=color.purple, style=shape.cross, title="Liquidity Low")
Pine Script® göstergesi
taim1433 tarafından
SMC Smart Money Concepts//@version=5 indicator("SMC Smart Money Concepts", overlay=true) // === إعداد الهيكل السعري === // تحديد HH, HL, LL, LH pivotHigh = ta.pivothigh(high, 5, 5) pivotLow = ta.pivotlow(low, 5, 5) plotshape(pivotHigh, location=location.abovebar, style=shape.triangleup, color=color.red, title="Lower High") plotshape(pivotLow, location=location.belowbar, style=shape.triangledown, color=color.green, title="Higher Low") // === Break of Structure & CHoCH === bos = pivotHigh and close > high choch = pivotLow and close < low plotshape(bos, location=location.abovebar, color=color.blue, style=shape.labelup, text="BOS") plotshape(choch, location=location.belowbar, color=color.orange, style=shape.labeldown, text="CHOCH") // === Order Blocks (OB) === // نأخذ آخر شمعة صاعدة قبل هبوط قوي كمثال على OB bearishOB = high < high and close < open bullishOB = low > low and close > open plotshape(bearishOB, location=location.abovebar, color=color.maroon, style=shape.square, title="Bearish OB") plotshape(bullishOB, location=location.belowbar, color=color.lime, style=shape.square, title="Bullish OB") // === Fair Value Gap (FVG) === // إذا لم تلامس الشمعة التالية قاع أو قمة شمعتين قبليتين fvgBull = low > high fvgBear = high < low plotshape(fvgBull, location=location.belowbar, color=color.teal, style=shape.circle, title="Bullish FVG") plotshape(fvgBear, location=location.abovebar, color=color.fuchsia, style=shape.circle, title="Bearish FVG") // === السيولة (Liquidity Pools) === // تعتبر السيولة موجودة عند قمم أو قيعان واضحة liquidityHigh = high == ta.highest(high, 20) liquidityLow = low == ta.lowest(low, 20) plotshape(liquidityHigh, location=location.abovebar, color=color.purple, style=shape.cross, title="Liquidity High") plotshape(liquidityLow, location=location.belowbar, color=color.purple, style=shape.cross, title="Liquidity Low")
Pine Script® göstergesi
taim1433 tarafından
Descending Candle Strategy//@version=5 indicator("Descending Candle Strategy", overlay=true) // الشموع المرجعية candle_A_close = close candle_A_open = open candle_B_close = close candle_B_open = open // الشروط المفترضة من الملف: descending_condition = candle_A_close < candle_A_open and candle_A_close < candle_B_close // فتح صفقة بيع إذا تحقق الشرط enterShort = descending_condition // مستوى وقف الخسارة - مثلاً أعلى شمعة B stopLoss = high // رسم إشارات البيع plotshape(enterShort, title="Sell Signal", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="Sell") // رسم وقف الخسارة على الشارت plot(enterShort ? stopLoss : na, title="Stop Loss", style=plot.style_line, color=color.orange)
Pine Script® göstergesi
taim1433 tarafından