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Probability ConesA probability cone is an indicator that forecasts a statistical distribution from a set point in time into the future. Features Forecast a Standard or Laplace distribution. Change the how many bars the cones will lookback and sample in their calculations. Set how many bars to forecast the cones. Let the cones follow price from a set number of bars back. Anchor the cones and they will not update from their last location. Show or hide any set of cones. Change the deviation used of any cone's upper or lower line. Change any line's color, style, or width. Change or toggle the fill colors between any two cone lines. Basic Interpretations First, there is an assumption that the distribution starting from the cone's origin, based on the number of historical bars sampled, is likely to represent the distribution of future price. Price typically hangs around the mean. About 68% of price stays within the first deviation cones. About 95% of price stays within the second deviation cones. About 99.7% of price stays within the third deviation cones. When price is between the first and second deviation cones, there is a higher probability for a reversal. However, strong momentum while above or below the first deviation can indicate a trend where price maintains itself past the first deviation. For this reason it's recommended to use a momentum indicator alongside the cones. There is no mean reversion assumption when price deviates. Price can continue to stay deviated. It's recommended that the cones are placed at the beginning of calendar periods. Like the month, week, or day. Be mindful when using the cones on various timeframes. As the lookback setting, which selects the number of bars back to load from the cone's origin, will load the number of bars back based on the current timeframe. Second Deviation Strategy How to react when price goes beyond the second deviation is contingent on your trading position. If you are holding a losing trade and price has moved past the second deviation, it could be time to stop trading and exit. If you are holding a winning trade and price has moved past the second deviation, it would be best to look at exit strategies to capitalize on the outperformance. If price has moved beyond the second deviation and you hold no position, then do not open any new trades.
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joebaus tarafından
62
Levels Of Fear [AstrideUnicorn]"Buy at the level of maximum fear when everyone is selling." - says a well-known among traders wisdom. If an asset's price declines significantly from the most recent highest value or established range, traders start to worry. The higher the drawdown gets, the more fear market participants experience. During a sell-off, a feedback loop arises, in which the escalating fear and price decline strengthen each other. The Levels Of Fear indicator helps analyze price declines and find the best times to buy an asset after a sell-off. In finance, volatility is a term that describes the degree of variation of an asset price over time. It is usually denoted by the letter σ (sigma) and estimated as the standard deviation of the asset price or price returns. The Levels Of Fear indicator helps measure the current price decline in the standard deviation units. It plots seven levels at distances of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 standard deviations (sigmas) below the base price (the recent highest price or upper bound of the established range). In what follows, we will refer to these levels as levels of fear. HOW TO USE When the price in its decline reaches a certain level of fear, it means that it has declined from its recent highest value by a corresponding number of standard deviations. The indicator helps traders see the minimum levels to which the price may fall and estimate the potential depth of the current decline based on the cause of the actual market shock. Five-seven sigma declines are relatively rare events and correspond to significant market shocks. In the lack of information, 5-7 sigma levels are good for buying an asset. Because when the price falls that deep, it corresponds to the maximum fear and pessimism in the market when most people are selling. In such situations, contrarian logic becomes the best decision. SETTINGS Window: the averaging window or period of the indicator. The algorithm uses this parameter to calculate the base level and standard deviations. Higher values are better for measuring deeper and longer declines. Levels Stability: the parameter used in the decline detection. The higher the value is, the more stable and long the fear levels are, but at the same time, the lag increases. The lower it is, the faster the indicator responds to the price changes, but the fear levels are recalculated more frequently and are less stable. This parameter is mostly for fine-tuning. It does not change the overall picture much. Mode: the parameter that defines the style for the labels. In the Cool Guys Mode , the indicator displays the labels as emojis. In the Serious Guys Mode , labels show the distance from the base level measured in standard deviation units or sigmas.
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AstrideUnicorn tarafından
11
rv_iv_vrpThis script provides realized volatility (rv), implied volatility (iv), and volatility risk premium (vrp) information for each of CBOE's volatility indices. The individual outputs are: - Blue/red line: the realized volatility. This is an annualized, 20-period moving average estimate of realized volatility--in other words, the variability in the instrument's actual returns. The line is blue when realized volatility is below implied volatility, red otherwise. - Fuchsia line (opaque): the median of realized volatility. The median is based on all data between the "start" and "end" dates. - Gray line (transparent): the implied volatility (iv). According to CBOE's volatility methodology, this is similar to a weighted average of out-of-the-money ivs for options with approximately 30 calendar days to expiration. Notice that we compare rv20 to iv30 because there are about twenty trading periods in thirty calendar days. - Fuchsia line (transparent): the median of implied volatility. - Lightly shaded gray background: the background between "start" and "end" is shaded a very light gray. - Table: the table shows the current, percentile, and median values for iv, rv, and vrp. Percentile means the value is greater than "N" percent of all values for that measure. ----- Volatility risk premium (vrp) is simply the difference between implied and realized volatility. Along with implied and realized volatility, traders interpret this measure in various ways. Some prefer to be buying options when there volatility, implied or realized, reaches absolute levels, or low risk premium, whereas others have the opposite opinion. However, all volatility traders like to look at these measures in relation to their past values, which this script assists with. By the way, this script is similar to my "vol premia," which provides the vrp data for all of these instruments on one page. However, this script loads faster and lets you see historical data. I recommend viewing the indicator and the corresponding instrument at the same time, to see how volatility reacts to changes in the underlying price.
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taylor_o tarafından
2
Creentrend Pressure SignalsThe hull moving average is my favorite moving average, as well as slower (55ma Bollinger Bands dev@(1.618)) is my favorite standard deviation indicator. Lets combine the two to evaluate overbought, oversold, and pressure. Use for all time frames- I PREFER daily. Bollinger band MA at 55 Hull ma at 55 The Hull is more reactive and faster than any band on the BB (both at 55) When HULL closes BELOW LOWER BAND- it will print a buy signal, remember- over sold and overbought in VOLATILITY could be dangerous on low time frames, as swift moves typically have short term reversals but return to the main trend eventually, this is why i reccomend daily candles. When PRICE closes ABOVE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND- it will print a green ^ signal under candle indicating upward pressure. When HULL closes ABOVE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND- it will print a red resistance line. Complex tops happen a lot with bitcoin so take a 1-5% stop above it if shorting.
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creengrack tarafından
6
GreatBlueTradingTeam FibDev SignalsScript Purpose: This script was designed to look for trend reversals and be used with other TA tools to help build confluence for day traders. TA Used: Without diverging too much information, this script relies on Highs, Lows, Opens, EMAs, Standard Deviations, Fib Numbers, and Fib Levels. Script Overview: First we look at the price action found on the Daily chart to create a set of zones using Fibs and Standard Deviations thats serves as our gauge on how far the price will move on any given day. Then, we create another set of zones ("intraday" zones if you will) that are built on much faster price action and relevant to the chart time period that is selected. These zones are also created using a combination of Fibs and Standard Deviations. From here, we compare the intraday price action with these two zones and look for areas where we feel overbought or oversold conditions are forming to create the bullish or bearish signals provided by the indicator. Script Shortcomings: Due to the fact this script is looking for breaks in trends, or trend reversals, it is subject to high risk especially in times of strong market trends where it could experience repeated failed signals. We recommend using this script in combination with other forms of TA for additional confluence as well as general market awareness that may influence trends and market behavior. Script Access: Please PM us to obtain information about accessing this script, or view our profile for contact information.
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GreatBlueTrades tarafından
NVTNetwork Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) is defined as the ratio of market capitalization divided by transacted volume. NVT Ratio can be thought of as an indicator that measures whether the blockchain network is overvalued or not. If it is upper than red line, it means overvalued. NVT Golden Cross targets to generate short or long signals by comparing the short-term trend of NVT and the long-term trend of NVT. If the short-term trend is way greater than the long-term trend is, the network can be interpreted as overpriced and will soon revert to mean value, meaning short signal. Similarly, the opposite case may imply a long signal. Over the red line is short signal and under the green line is long signal. You can find divergence in this indicator. There are two sources cryptocap glassnode
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erfan_abedi tarafından
1
DMI & ST DEV zone intersection [LM]Hello Traders, This indicator uses two indicators st dev extremes and DMI extremes and visualize intersection of both indicators extreme zones using crosses. It means where cross is rendered intersection of extremes has occurred. The standard deviation uses the same calculation as my Standard deviation zones Support & Resistance indicator, DMI indicator measures both the strength and direction of a price movement. I am using both indicators to find the intersection of extreme zones between them. ST DEV settings: source tops setting bottom setting DMI settings: length settings extreme zone setting Enjoy, Lukas
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lmatl tarafından
6
Cyatophilum VWAP StrategyAn indicator to backtest and automate VWAP custom strategies. Use the Trend Mode to create Swing Trading strategies or Rotation Mode for Intraday Trading. Configure your strategy using the Entry Condition Builder and Risk Management features, such as Trailing Stop & Take Profits, Safety Orders, and VWAP Exit conditions. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ █  HOW IT WORKS VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. It is like a simple moving average that takes volume into account. It is used by a lot of traders since it has everything one needs to know: price and volume. The cummulated volume calculation resets every session, which interval can be configured. From that we can calculate the MVWAP and the Standard Deviation Bands and create strategies around that. █  HOW TO USE Trend Mode Trend Mode is the name for strategies built upon VWAP and price/MVWAP cross, most often for Swing Trading on high timeframes trending markets. The side traded is often long and trying to beat Buy & Hold. The trade exit can be triggered by a reversal signal (top chart), or a trailing stop (bottom chart) and take profit. Rotation Mode This is the mode for Intraday on low timeframes. It will work best on ranging markets. We use the Standard Deviation Bands to buy/sell the price at overbougth/oversold levels. The indicator allows to create complex entry conditions such as "Break out of 3rd bands AND break back in 2nd bands" within a certain amount of time. We will use either the exit options to close the trade when prices reach an opposite band, or the risk management features explained below. █  FEATURES  • VWAP settings Configure the VWAP.  • Entry settings Choose to go long, short, and if the strategy should reverse or not.  • Trend Mode Choose to create entries from VWAP cross with price or MVWAP.  • Rotation Mode Configure the 3 bands and build a condition for entry. The multiple inputs allow to add up different events required to trigger an entry, using 3 logical gates that can be linked together using a AND or OR condition. The events being: "break out", "Break back in" or "Just touches" any of the 3 bands. The condition must be met within a certain period of time to be valid.  • Exit settings Options to exit trades at the end of every session or when the price reaches an opposite band.  • Stop Loss & Take Profit Configure your stop loss and take profit for long and short trades. You can also make a trailing stoploss and a trailing take profit.  • Safety Orders (DCA) Create a strategy with up to 100 safety orders. Configure their placement and order size using the price deviation, step scale, take profit type (from base order or total volume), and volume scale settings. Graphics A Configuration panel with all the indicator settings, useful for sharing a strategy. A Backtest Results panel with buy & Hold Comparator. █  ALERTS Configure your alert messages for all events in the indicator settings. Then click "Add Alert". In the popup window, select the option "alert() function calls only", give the alert a name and you are good to go! █  BACKTEST RESULTS The backtest settings used in this snapshot are the following: Initial Capital: 10 000€ Order size: 10% equity Commission: 0.1€ per order Slippage : 10 ticks Please read the author instructions below for access.
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cyatophilum tarafından
NEXT Regressive VWAPOverview: This version of the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) indicator features an extended algorithm, which, in addition to volume and price, also incorporates regression analysis. The result is a more responsive, often leading VWAP slope with a degree of statistical predictability built in. Just like with the original VWAP, NEXT Regressive VWAP offers two optional Standard Deviation bands that parallel it. These can be set to any deviation level, with the default being 1 and -1, indicating one standard deviation above and one below Regressive VWAP, respectively. Below is a screenshot comparing NEXT Regressive VWAP (green) to the original VWAP (blue) on CME_MINI:ES1! M3 chart. Application and Strategy Ideas: Price above NEXT Regressive VWAP is interpreted to have a bullish bias, and below, bearish. You can use TradingView's native Set Alert functionality to be notified, in real-time, when price crosses Regressive VWAP, and/or any of its standard deviation bands. Another popular "probability play" strategy is to scalp price when it crosses under the upper band (short) and crosses over the lower band (long). The screenshot below visualizes such a strategy on NASDAQ:QQQ M1 chart: Input Parameters: There are 3 groups of input. Regression Settings Length - controls the length of time (in bars) for regression analysis with higher values yielding smoother, more responsive values. Regression Weighting - controls the degree of regression analysis incorporated into VWAP, with 5 being average, 0-4 less, 6-10 more. The higher the value, the more responsive the Regressive VWAP curve. VWAP Settings Anchor Period - controls the origin of VWAP calculations, start of session being the default. Source - data used for calculating the VWAP, typically HLC/3, but can be used with other price formats and data sources as well. Offset - shifting of the VWAP line forward (+) or backward (-). Standard Deviation Bands Settings Calculate Bands - checking this will add 2 bands, each equidistant (by the amount of Multiplier) from the NEXT Regressive VWAP line. Bands Multiplier - standard deviation multiplier, with 1 being the default Signals and Alerts: Here is how to set price (close) crossing NEXT Regressive VWAP alerts: open a chart, attach NEXT Regressive VWAP, and right-click on chart -> Add Alert. Condition: Symbol e.g. ES (close) >> Crossing >> Regressive VWAP >> VWAP >> Once Per Bar Close.
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ChartVPS tarafından
6
M.Right_Top & Bottom Finder 1.0Thank you @Lazybear for the calculations for squeeze and BB, and all of the other great pine-coders who inspired me to create my own indicator to share! This is the result of hours of work learning to code pine and tweaking until everything fits exactly what I was looking for. After using it for a while and seeing the benefits personally, I figured now might be a good time to share with everyone while we are in such great market volatility, maybe I can save you some losses. Basically, my indicator is meant to use volatility and standard deviations to show you the top and bottom of trends. It does indeed work on lower timeframes, I typically use it on 5m, 30m, 4hr, and 1d. What to look for: When it detects the trend bottoming it will send a green histogram bar down, I also created a different shade green for even more likely bottoms. When it detects the top of the trend it will send a red bar up, I have a brighter red for more certain tops. The length of the histogram bar is also an indication as well. Sometimes there will be a reversal while still just showing the gray bar. I just added alerts, so hopefully those work. If not, I will update. Let me know if you have any questions, and enjoy. Cheers!
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UPRIGHTTrading tarafından
1
Exponential Regression Channel with novel volatilityThis code is a modified version of the built-in "linear regression" script of Tradingviews which can be plotted correctly on logarithmic charts The log reg code of Forza was adjusted by altustro to generate an exponential regression (or a correct linear regression on the log scale, this is equivalent). The standard deviation in the log scale is a better volatility measure which we call novola, and which defines the trend channel displayed in addition to the main indicator. The exponential regression slope and channel also defines the typical holding time of the stock and the SL/TP boundaries, which are calculated and displayed at the last bar. The display works both in log and regular scale. But only in the log scale it can be compared to the linear extension, which can also be plotted when activated in the properties. The underlying exponential fit can not be displayed in regular scale as only lines can be plotted by TV. But with the related script Exponental Regression also the exponential regression can be exactly displayed using a workaround.
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altustro tarafından
6
SMADIF4 IndicatorIt shows a percentage difference between close and 4-SMA, 20, 50, 100 and 200. As it turns greener, the stock is more expensive, and vice versa, it turns redder when it becomes cheaper relative to the SMA. It will print the green backgraound as long as the bar closes above the 200 SMA and red as long as the bar closes below the 200 SMA. It uses by default 1.3 sigma to discriminate non-representative values and 100 bars in the past.
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ihsuka942 tarafından
Bar StatisticsThis script calculates and displays some bar statistics. For the bar length statistics, it takes every length of upper or lower movements and calculates their average (with SD), median, and max. That way, you can see whether there is a bias in the market or not. Eg.: If for 10 bars, the market moved 2 up, then 1 down, then 3 up, then 2 down, and 2 up, the average up bars length would be at 2.33, while the average for the down length would be at 1.5, showing that upper movements last longer than down movements. For the range statistics, it takes the true range of each bar and calculates where the close of the bar is in relation to the true low of it. So if the closing of the bar is at 10.0, the low is at 9.0, and the high is at 10.2, the candle closed in the upper third of the bar. This process is calculated for every bar and for both closing prices and open prices. It is very useful to locate biasses, and they can you a better view of the market, since for most of the time a bar will open on an extreme and close on another extreme. Eg.: Here on the DJI, we can see that for most of the time, a month opens at the lower third (near the low) and closes at the upper third (near the high). We can also see that it is very difficult for a month to open or close on the middle of the candle, showing how important the first and the last day are for determining the trend of the rest of the month.
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EduardoMattje tarafından
1
Exponential RegressionIn Tradingview it is not possible to actually display arbitrary non-linear functions retrospectively. Series objects can only depend on the current or past bars Thus, while regression is possible, display of a non-linear curve into the past is not possible This script is a workaround to be able to still display an exponential fit of the last n bars. It is based on a linear regression of the log(close). The parameters of this regression are printed in the label. To create the correct plot, these parameters have to be written into the properties of the indicator. The functions displayed follow the expression exp(A)* exp(pot*t+d) where d =0 for the center line, and d = +-std * upperMult for the upper and lower line respectiveley. The parameters of the function are: amplitude in log scale A exponent of the exponential function pot standard deviation of the linear regression std number of bars of the current chart bindex multiplicator of the std of the upper and lower exponential line upperMult and lowerMult + This code is a version of the built-in "linear regression" script of Tradingview alztered by Forza so it can be plotted correctly on logarithmic charts The code of Forza was further adjusted by altustro to be able to plot the full exponential curve also in regular scale
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altustro tarafından
[KL] Double Bollinger Bands Strategy (for Crypto/FOREX)This strategy uses a setup consisting of two Bollinger Bands based on the 20 period 20-SMA +/- (a) upper/lower bands of two standard deviations apart, and (b) upper/lower bands of one standard deviation apart. We consider price at +/- one standard deviation apart from 20-SMA as the "Neutral Zone". If price closes above Neutral Zone after a period of consolidation, then it's an opportunity for entry. Strategy will long, anticipating for breakout. The illustration below shows price closing above the Neutral Zone after a period of consolidation. a.c-dn.net Position is exited when prices closes at Neutral Zone (being lower than prior bars)
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DojiEmoji tarafından
Ultimate Moving Average Bands [CC+RedK]The Ultimate Moving Average Bands were created by me and @RedKTrader and this converts our Ultimate Moving Average into volatility bands that use the same adaptive logic to create the bands. I have enabled everything to be fully adjustable so please let me know if you find a more useful setting than what I have here by default. I'm sure everyone is familiar with volatility bands but generally speaking if a price goes above the volatility bands then this is either a sign of an extremely strong uptrend or a potential reversal point and vice versa. I have included strong buy and sell signals in addition to normal ones so darker colors are strong signals and lighter colors are normal ones. Buy when the lines turn green and sell when they turn red. Let me know if there are any other scripts you would like to see me publish!
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cheatcountry tarafından
12
Zigzag CloudThis is Bollinger Band built on top of Zigzags instead of regular price + something more. Indicator presents 7 lines and cloud around it. This can be used to visualize how low or high price is with respect to its past movement. Middle line is moving average of last N zigzag pivots Lines adjacent to moving average are also moving averages. But, they are made of only pivot highs and pivot lows. Means, line above moving average is pivot high moving average and line below moving average is pivot low moving average. Lines after pivot high/low moving averages are upper and lower bolllinger bands based on Moving Average Line with 2 standard deviation difference. Outermost lines are bollinger band top of Moving average pivot high and bollinger band bottom of moving average pivot low.
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Trendoscope tarafından
27
pricing_tableThis script helps you evaluate the fair value of an option. It poses the question "if I bought or sold an option under these circumstances in the past, would it have expired in the money, or worthless? What would be its expected value, at expiration, if I opened a position at N standard deviations, given the volatility forecast, with M days to expiration at the close of every previous trading day?" The default (and only) "hv" volatility forecast is based on the assumption that today's volatility will hold for the next M days. To use this script, only one step is mandatory. You must first select days to expiration. The script will not do anything until this value is changed from the default (-1). These should be CALENDAR days. The script will convert to these to business days for forecasting and valuation, as trading in most contracts occurs over ~250 business days per year. Adjust any other variables as desired: model: the volatility forecasting model window: the number of periods for a lagged model (e.g. hv) filter: a filter to remove forecasts from the sample filter type: "none" (do not use the filter), "less than" (keep forecasts when filter < volatility), "greater than" (keep forecasts when filter > volatility) filter value: a whole number percentage. see example below discount rate: to discount the expected value to present value precision: number of decimals in output trim outliers: omit upper N % of (generally itm) contracts The theoretical values are based on history. For example, suppose days to expiration is 30. On every bar, the 30 days ago N deviation forecast value is compared to the present price. If the price is above the forecast value, the contract has expired in the money; otherwise, it has expired worthless. The theoretical value is the average of every such sample. The itm probabilities are calculated the same way. The default (and only) volatility model is a 20 period EWMA derived historical (realized) volatility. Feel free to extend the script by adding your own. The filter parameters can be used to remove some forecasts from the sample. Example A: filter: filter type: none filter value: Default: the filter is not used; all forecasts are included in the the sample. Example B: filter: model filter type: less than filter value: 50 If the model is "hv", this will remove all forecasts when the historical volatility is greater than fifty. Example C: filter: rank filter type: greater than filter value: 75 If the model volatility is in the top 25% of the previous year's range, the forecast will be included in the sample apart from "model" there are some common volatility indexes to choose from, such as Nasdaq (VXN), crude oil (OVX), emerging markets (VXFXI), S&P; (VIX) etc. Refer to the middle-right table to see the current forecast value, its rank among the last 252 days, and the number of business days until expiration. NOTE: This script is meant for the daily chart only.
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taylor_o tarafından
4