Correlation HeatMap [TradingFinder] Sessions Data Science Stats🔵 Introduction
n financial markets, correlation describes the statistical relationship between the price movements of two assets and how they interact over time. It plays a key role in both trading and investing by helping analyze asset behavior, manage portfolio risk, and understand intermarket dynamics. The Correlation Heatmap is a visual tool that shows how the correlation between multiple assets and a central reference asset (the Main Symbol) changes over time.
It supports four market types forex, stocks, crypto, and a custom mode making it adaptable to different trading environments. The heatmap uses a color-coded grid where warmer tones represent stronger negative correlations and cooler tones indicate stronger positive ones. This intuitive color system allows traders to quickly identify when assets move together or diverge, offering real-time insights that go beyond traditional correlation tables.
🟣 How to Interpret the Heatmap Visually ?
Each cell represents the correlation between the main symbol and one compared asset at a specific time.
Warm colors (e.g. red, orange) suggest strong negative correlation as one asset rises, the other tends to fall.
Cool colors (e.g. blue, green) suggest strong positive correlation both assets tend to move in the same direction.
Lighter shades indicate weaker correlations, while darker shades indicate stronger correlations.
The heatmap updates over time, allowing users to detect changes in correlation during market events or trading sessions.
One of the standout features of this indicator is its ability to overlay global market sessions such as Tokyo, London, New York, or major equity opens directly onto the heatmap timeline. This alignment lets traders observe how correlation structures respond to real-world session changes. For example, they can spot when assets shift from being inversely correlated to moving together as a new session opens, potentially signaling new momentum or macro flow. The customizable symbol setup (including up to 20 compared assets) makes it ideal not only for forex and crypto traders but also for multi-asset and sector-based stock analysis.
🟣 Use Cases and Advantages
Analyze sector rotation in equities by tracking correlation to major indices like SPX or DJI.
Monitor altcoin behavior relative to Bitcoin to find early entry opportunities in crypto markets.
Detect changes in currency alignment with DXY across trading sessions in forex.
Identify correlation breakdowns during market volatility, signaling possible new trends.
Use correlation shifts as confirmation for trade setups or to hedge multi-asset exposure
🔵 How to Use
Correlation is one of the core concepts in financial analysis and allows traders to understand how assets behave in relation to one another. The Correlation Heatmap extends this idea by going beyond a simple number or static matrix. Instead, it presents a dynamic visual map of how correlations shift over time.
In this indicator, a Main Symbol is selected as the reference point for analysis. In standard modes such as forex, stocks, or crypto, the symbol currently shown on the main chart is automatically used as the main symbol. This allows users to begin correlation analysis right away without adjusting any settings.
The horizontal axis of the heatmap shows time, while the vertical axis lists the selected assets. Each cell on the heatmap shows the correlation between that asset and the main symbol at a given moment.
This approach is especially useful for intermarket analysis. In forex, for example, tracking how currency pairs like OANDA:EURUSD EURUSD, FX:GBPUSD GBPUSD, and PEPPERSTONE:AUDUSD AUDUSD correlate with TVC:DXY DXY can give insight into broader capital flow.
If these pairs start showing increasing positive correlation with DXY say, shifting from blue to light green it could signal the start of a new phase or reversal. Conversely, if negative correlation fades gradually, it may suggest weakening relationships and more independent or volatile movement.
In the crypto market, watching how altcoins correlate with Bitcoin can help identify ideal entry points in secondary assets. In the stock market, analyzing how companies within the same sector move in relation to a major index like SP:SPX SPX or DJ:DJI DJI is also a highly effective technique for both technical and fundamental analysts.
This indicator not only visualizes correlation but also displays major market sessions. When enabled, this feature helps traders observe how correlation behavior changes at the start of each session, whether it's Tokyo, London, New York, or the opening of stock exchanges. Many key shifts, breakouts, or reversals tend to happen around these times, and the heatmap makes them easy to spot.
Another important feature is the market selection mode. Users can switch between forex, crypto, stocks, or custom markets and see correlation behavior specific to each one. In custom mode, users can manually select any combination of symbols for more advanced or personalized analysis. This makes the heatmap valuable not only for forex traders but also for stock traders, crypto analysts, and multi-asset strategists.
Finally, the heatmap's color-coded design helps users make sense of the data quickly. Warm colors such as red and orange reflect stronger negative correlations, while cool colors like blue and green represent stronger positive relationships. This simplicity and clarity make the tool accessible to both beginners and experienced traders.
🔵 Settings
Correlation Period: Allows you to set how many historical bars are used for calculating correlation. A higher number means a smoother, slower-moving heatmap, while a lower number makes it more responsive to recent changes.
Select Market: Lets you choose between Forex, Stock, Crypto, or Custom. In the first three options, the chart’s active symbol is automatically used as the Main Symbol. In Custom mode, you can manually define the Main Symbol and up to 20 Compared Symbols.
Show Open Session: Enables the display of major trading sessions such as Tokyo, London, New York, or equity market opening hours directly on the timeline. This helps you connect correlation shifts with real-world market activity.
Market Mode: Lets you select whether the displayed sessions relate to the forex or stock market.
🔵 Conclusion
The Correlation Heatmap is a robust and flexible tool for analyzing the relationship between assets across different markets. By tracking how correlations change in real time, traders can better identify alignment or divergence between symbols and gain valuable insights into market structure.
Support for multiple asset classes, session overlays, and intuitive visual cues make this one of the most effective tools for intermarket analysis.
Whether you’re looking to manage portfolio risk, validate entry points, or simply understand capital flow across markets, this heatmap provides a clear and actionable perspective that you can rely on.
Komut dosyalarını "entry" için ara
Daily Manipulation Probability Dashboard📜 Summary
Tired of getting stopped out on a "Judas Swing" just before the price moves in your intended direction? This indicator is designed to give you a statistical edge by quantifying the daily manipulation move.
The Daily Manipulation Probability Dashboard analyzes thousands of historical trading days to reveal the probability of the initial "stop-hunt" or "fakeout" move reaching certain percentage levels. It presents this data in a clean, intuitive dashboard right on your chart, helping you make more data-driven decisions about stop-loss placement and entry timing.
🧠 The Core Concept
The logic is simple but powerful. For every trading day, we measure two things:
Amplitude Above Open (AAO): The distance price travels up from the daily open (High - Open).
Amplitude Below Open (ABO): The distance price travels down from the daily open (Open - Low).
The indicator defines the "Manipulation" as the smaller of these two moves. The idea is that this smaller move often acts as a liquidity grab to trap traders before the day's primary, larger move ("Distribution") begins.
This tool focuses exclusively on providing deep statistical insight into this crucial manipulation phase.
🛠️ How to Use This Tool
This dashboard is designed to be a practical part of your daily analysis and trade planning.
1. Smarter Stop-Loss Placement
This is the primary use case. The "Prob. (%)" column tells you the historical chance of the manipulation move being at least a certain size.
Example: If the table shows that for EURUSD, the ≥ 0.25% level has a probability of 30%, you can flip this information: there is a 70% probability that the daily manipulation move will be less than 0.25%.
Action: Placing your stop-loss just beyond a level with a low probability gives you a statistically sound buffer against typical stop-hunts.
2. Entry Timing and Patience
The live arrow (→) shows you where the current day's manipulation falls.
Example: If the arrow is pointing at ≥ 0.10% and you know there is a high probability (e.g., 60%) of the manipulation reaching ≥ 0.20%, you might wait for a deeper pullback before entering, anticipating that the "Judas Swing" hasn't completed yet.
3. Assessing Daily Character
Quickly see if the current day's action is unusual. If the manipulation move is already in a very low probability zone (e.g., > 1.00%), it might indicate that your Bias is wrong, or signal a high-volatility day or a potential trend reversal.
📊 Understanding the Dashboard
Ticker: The top-right shows the current symbol you are analyzing.
→ (Arrow): Points to the row that corresponds to the current, live day's manipulation amplitude.
Manip. Level: The percentage threshold being analyzed (e.g., ≥ 0.20%).
Days Analyzed: The raw count of historical days where the manipulation move met or exceeded this level.
Prob. (%): The key statistic. The cumulative probability of the manipulation move being at least the size of the level.
⚙️ Settings
Position: Choose where you want the dashboard to appear on your chart.
Text Size: Adjust the font size for readability.
Max Historical Days to Analyze: Set the number of past daily candles to include in the statistical analysis. A larger number provides a more robust sample size.
I believe this tool provides a unique, data-driven edge for intraday traders across all markets (Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices). Your feedback and suggestions are highly welcome!
- @traderprimez
CnagdaCnagda indicator fuses multiple concepts: anchored VWAP, average of key MAs, volatility stops, swing and scalp trading logic, advanced volume and RSI usage, and visually handy outputs. It’s intended to give clear, multi-layered signals and adapt to different trading styles (trend following, swing, and scalp).
Here’s the entry and exit logic of this strategy in simple
Buy Entry (SCALP):
When a special moving average crossover happens, the script waits until the price rises above a recent high — then it signals a buy.
Sell Entry (SCALP):
When the crossover happens in the other direction, the script waits until the price falls below a recent low — then it signals a sell.
Exit from Buy/Sell
when condition neutral
Swing Trades:
If both price and its low are above an important average, it suggests a buy signal.
If both price and its high are below this average, it suggests a sell signal.
RSI/Volume Special Signals:
The strategy also checks for extra conditions combining momentum (RSI) and high volume spikes for more buy/sell signals, but only when the price's location supports it.
It buys when price shows fresh strength and sells when price shows fresh weakness
Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF) [PhenLabs]📊 PhenLabs - Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF)
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF) is an advanced Pine Script indicator designed to dynamically adjust moving average calculations based on real time market regimes detected through the Hurst Exponent. The intention behind the creation of this indicator was not a buy/sell indicator but rather a tool to help sharpen traders ability to distinguish regimes in the market mathematically rather than guessing. By analyzing price persistence, it identifies whether the market is trending, mean-reverting, or exhibiting random walk behavior, automatically adapting the MA length to provide more responsive alerts in volatile conditions and smoother outputs in stable ones. This helps traders avoid false signals in choppy markets and capitalize on strong trends, making it ideal for adaptive trading strategies across various timeframes and assets.
Unlike traditional moving averages, HEAF incorporates fractal dimension analysis via the Hurst Exponent to create a self-tuning filter that evolves with market conditions. Traders benefit from visual cues like color coded regimes, adaptive bands for volatility channels, and an information panel that suggests appropriate strategies, enhancing decision making without constant manual adjustments by the user.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Dynamic MA length adjustment using Hurst Exponent for regime-aware filtering, reducing lag in trends and noise in ranges.
Integrated market regime classification (trending, mean-reverting, random) with visual and alert-based notifications.
Customizable color themes and adaptive bands that incorporate ATR for volatility-adjusted channels.
Built-in information panel providing real-time strategy recommendations based on detected regimes.
Power sensitivity parameter to fine-tune adaptation aggressiveness, allowing personalization for different trading styles.
Support for multiple MA types (EMA, SMA, WMA) within an adaptive framework.
🔧 Core Components
Hurst Exponent Calculation: Computes the fractal dimension of price series over a user-defined lookback to detect market persistence or anti-persistence.
Adaptive Length Mechanism: Maps Hurst values to MA lengths between minimum and maximum bounds, using a power function for sensitivity control.
Moving Average Engine: Applies the chosen MA type (EMA, SMA, or WMA) to the adaptive length for the core filter line.
Adaptive Bands: Creates upper and lower channels using ATR multiplied by a band factor, scaled to the current adaptive length.
Regime Detection: Classifies market state with thresholds (e.g., >0.55 for trending) and triggers alerts on regime changes.
Visualization System: Includes gradient fills, regime-colored MA lines, and an info panel for at-a-glance insights.
🔥 Key Features
Regime-Adaptive Filtering: Automatically shortens MA in mean-reverting markets for quick responses and lengthens it in trends for smoother signals, helping traders stay aligned with market dynamics.
Custom Alerts: Notifies on regime shifts and band breakouts, enabling timely strategy adjustments like switching to trend-following in bullish regimes.
Visual Enhancements: Color-coded MA lines, gradient band fills, and an optional info panel that displays market state and trading tips, improving chart readability.
Flexible Settings: Adjustable lookback, min/max lengths, sensitivity power, MA type, and themes to suit various assets and timeframes.
Band Breakout Signals: Highlights potential overbought/oversold conditions via ATR-based channels, useful for entry/exit timing.
🎨 Visualization
Main Adaptive MA Line: Plotted with regime-based colors (e.g., green for trending) to visually indicate market state and filter position relative to price.
Adaptive Bands: Upper and lower lines with gradient fills between them, showing volatility channels that widen in random regimes and tighten in trends.
Price vs. MA Fills: Color-coded areas between price and MA (e.g., bullish green above MA in trending modes) for quick trend strength assessment.
Information Panel: Top-right table displaying current regime (e.g., "Trending Market") and strategy suggestions like "Follow trends" or "Trade ranges."
📖 Usage Guidelines
Core Settings
Hurst Lookback Period
Default: 100
Range: 20-500
Description: Sets the period for Hurst Exponent calculation; longer values provide more stable regime detection but may lag, while shorter ones are more responsive to recent changes.
Minimum MA Length
Default: 10
Range: 5-50
Description: Defines the shortest possible adaptive MA length, ideal for fast responses in mean-reverting conditions.
Maximum MA Length
Default: 200
Range: 50-500
Description: Sets the longest adaptive MA length for smoothing in strong trends; adjust based on asset volatility.
Sensitivity Power
Default: 2.0
Range: 1.0-5.0
Description: Controls how aggressively the length adapts to Hurst changes; higher values make it more sensitive to regime shifts.
MA Type
Default: EMA
Options: EMA, SMA, WMA
Description: Chooses the moving average calculation method; EMA is more responsive, while SMA/WMA offer different weighting.
🖼️ Visual Settings
Show Adaptive Bands
Default: True
Description: Toggles visibility of upper/lower bands for volatility channels.
Band Multiplier
Default: 1.5
Range: 0.5-3.0
Description: Scales band width using ATR; higher values create wider channels for conservative signals.
Show Information Panel
Default: True
Description: Displays regime info and strategy tips in a top-right panel.
MA Line Width
Default: 2
Range: 1-5
Description: Adjusts thickness of the main MA line for better visibility.
Color Theme
Default: Blue
Options: Blue, Classic, Dark Purple, Vibrant
Description: Selects color scheme for MA, bands, and fills to match user preferences.
🚨 Alert Settings
Enable Alerts
Default: True
Description: Activates notifications for regime changes and band breakouts.
✅ Best Use Cases
Trend-Following Strategies: In detected trending regimes, use the adaptive MA as a trailing stop or entry filter for momentum trades.
Range Trading: During mean-reverting periods, monitor band breakouts for buying dips or selling rallies within channels.
Risk Management in Random Markets: Reduce exposure when random walk is detected, using tight stops suggested in the info panel.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Apply on higher timeframes for regime confirmation, then drill down to lower ones for entries.
Volatility-Based Entries: Use upper/lower band crossovers as signals in adaptive channels for overbought/oversold trades.
⚠️ Limitations
Lagging in Transitions: Regime detection may delay during rapid market shifts, requiring confirmation from other tools.
Not a Standalone System: Best used in conjunction with other indicators; random regimes can lead to whipsaws if traded aggressively.
Parameter Sensitivity: Optimal settings vary by asset and timeframe, necessitating backtesting.
💡 What Makes This Unique
Hurst-Driven Adaptation: Unlike static MAs, it uses fractal analysis to self-tune, providing regime-specific filtering that's rare in standard indicators.
Integrated Strategy Guidance: The info panel offers actionable tips tied to regimes, bridging analysis and execution.
Multi-Regime Visualization: Combines adaptive bands, colored fills, and alerts in one tool for comprehensive market state awareness.
🔬 How It Works
Hurst Exponent Computation:
Calculates log returns over the lookback period to derive the rescaled range (R/S) ratio.
Normalizes to a 0-1 value, where >0.55 indicates trending, <0.45 mean-reverting, and in-between random.
Length Adaptation:
Maps normalized Hurst to an MA length via a power function, clamping between min and max.
Applies the selected MA type to close prices using this dynamic length.
Visualization and Signals:
Plots the MA with regime colors, adds ATR-based bands, and fills areas for trend strength.
Triggers alerts on regime changes or band crosses, with the info panel suggesting strategies like momentum riding in trends.
💡 Note:
For optimal results, backtest settings on your preferred assets and combine with volume or momentum indicators. Remember, no indicator guarantees profits—use with proper risk management. Access premium features and support at PhenLabs.
Optimized MA Strategy (4+1) - Мои скользящие # Optimized Cryptocurrency Trading Script Based on Moving Averages
This script is a trend analysis system based on 5 moving averages with periods 9, 18, 36, 72, and 144, specifically optimized for trading on 30-minute, 2H, 4H, and daily timeframes. The geometric progression of periods eliminates the "line clustering" problem common in standard combinations.
Key features:
- Color gradient from green to maroon for visual importance determination
- Golden crosses and death crosses as primary signals
- Volume confirmation through VWMA for trend strength
Moving averages and their purposes:
Line | Period | Type | Color | Purpose
-----|--------|------|-------|--------
EMA 9 | 9 | Exponential | Bright green | Quick pullbacks and short-term entries
WMA 18 | 18 | Weighted | Light green | Medium-term trend, noise filter
SMA 36 | 36 | Simple | Olive | Main trend, false signal filter
VWMA 72 | 72 | Volume-weighted | Red | Trend strength confirmation through volume
SMA 144 | 144 | Simple | Maroon | Long-term trend, basis for crosses
Main signals:
- Golden cross: SMA 36 crosses above SMA 144 (buy signal)
- Death cross: SMA 36 crosses below SMA 144 (sell signal)
Example on 4-hour chart (ETH/USDT):
- Golden cross forms with rising VWMA 72
- Long entry on pullback to WMA 18 with above-average volume
- Stop-loss below SMA 36, take-profit near VWMA 72
- Result: entry at $3,450, exit at $3,720, 7.8% profit over 5 days
Professional recommendations:
- Don't enter trades without VWMA 72 direction confirmation
- Avoid signals in sideways markets (less than 5% range)
- Don't trade against SMA 144 direction
- Use RSI combined with EMA 9 for entries
- Risk management: position size no more than 2% of deposit
Advantages of this combination:
- Even line distribution thanks to geometric progression
- Periods are multiples of 9, matching crypto market cycles
- VWMA 72 accounts for volume, critical for crypto
- Universality: lines correspond to 4.5h, 9h, 18h, 36h, 72h on 30-minute chart
The script provides clear line separation across all timeframes, minimizes false signals through multi-level confirmation, and accounts for crypto market specifics. It works without adjustments on all your charts and suits both beginners and experienced traders.
Custom P&L Tool (EUR/USD)This tool lets you visually calculate potential Profit & Loss, Risk:Reward, and pip distances for a trade based on your:
Entry price
Stop Loss (SL)
Take Profit (TP)
Lot size (0.01 up to 10 lots)
Trade direction (Long or Short)
🔹 Automatically shows horizontal lines for Entry, TP, and SL
🔹 Displays a live P&L table with:
TP pips
SL pips
Estimated profit/loss in USD
Risk:Reward ratio
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
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US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
Aruoba, S. B., Diebold, F. X., & Scotti, C. (2009). Real-time measurement of business conditions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4), 417-427.
Basseville, M., & Nikiforov, I. V. (1993). Detection of abrupt changes: Theory and application. Prentice Hall.
Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
Cormen, T. H., Leiserson, C. E., Rivest, R. L., & Stein, C. (2009). Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press.
Doz, C., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2011). A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), 188-205.
Dzeng, R. J., & Lin, Y. C. (2004). Intelligent agents for supporting construction procurement negotiation. Expert Systems with Applications, 27(1), 107-119.
Elliot, A. J., & Maier, M. A. (2014). Color psychology: Effects of perceiving color on psychological functioning in humans. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 95-120.
Few, S. (2006). Information dashboard design: The effective visual communication of data. O'Reilly Media.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Foley, J. D., van Dam, A., Feiner, S. K., & Hughes, J. F. (1995). Computer graphics: Principles and practice. Addison-Wesley.
Gordon, M. J. (1962). The investment, financing, and valuation of the corporation. Richard D. Irwin.
Hasbrouck, J. (2007). Empirical market microstructure: The institutions, economics, and econometrics of securities trading. Oxford University Press.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
Nielsen, J. (1993). Usability engineering. Academic Press.
Norman, D. A. (2013). The design of everyday things: Revised and expanded edition. Basic Books.
OECD (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing.
Oppenheim, A. V., & Schafer, R. W. (2009). Discrete-time signal processing. Prentice Hall.
Sahm, C. (2019). Direct stimulus payments to individuals. In Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy (pp. 67-92). The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
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Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
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Yardeni, E. (2003). Stock valuation models. Topical Study, 38. Yardeni Research.
Tradeable Candle Detection By Raja SaienTradeable Candle Detection By Raja Saien
Overview:
This advanced candle detection tool is designed to help traders identify high-quality trade setups and avoid fake moves, based on candle structure, volume, and RSI conditions. Unlike many indicators that are limited to specific sessions, this script works across all market sessions, giving you full flexibility to trade 24/7.
🔍 Key Features:
All Session Support (24/7 Trading)
Detects tradeable setups during any time of the day, including Asian, London, New York, and overlapping hours.
No restriction to any specific session — trade when the opportunity is there!
Fake Move Detection 🚫
Identifies candles with long wicks, small bodies, and low volume — typical signs of manipulation or indecision.
Displays a “No Trade Zone – Fake Move” label to help you avoid poor entries.
Real Move Detection ✅
Highlights candles with strong bodies, short wicks, and high volume — ideal conditions for trade entries.
Helps you focus only on high-probability, momentum-driven moves.
RSI-Based Confirmation
Uses RSI to ensure trade entries align with momentum:
Bullish Entry Allowed: Candle is bullish + RSI between 50–75.
Bearish Entry Allowed: Candle is bearish + RSI between 25–50.
Avoid Trades: RSI is overbought/oversold or showing divergence.
Divergence Detection
Detects bearish divergence in bullish setups and bullish divergence in bearish setups — warns against risky entries.
Visual Zones & Candle Highlights
Plots horizontal lines at candle highs/lows and extended zones based on candle range.
Dominant candles are highlighted in black for quick visual spotting.
⚙️ Custom Inputs:
Minimum Body Size Threshold
Wick-to-Body Ratio for Fake Move
Volume Strength Multiplier
Candle Dominance Precision (% of range)
RSI Period and Source
Optional session filter (can be turned off to enable all-session detection)
🛎️ Alerts Included:
✅ Long Entry Confirmed – Strong bullish candle with supporting RSI
✅ Short Entry Confirmed – Strong bearish candle with supporting RSI
🚫 Fake Move Detected – Weak structure + low volume, no trade
🧠 How to Use:
Wait for a dominant black candle to appear.
Read the label to understand:
✅ Green = Trade Allowed
⚠️ Orange = Avoid (due to RSI or divergence)
🚫 Red = Fake Move (stay out)
Combine with support/resistance, SMC, or price action strategy for confluence.
🟢 "Trade any session, any time – with confidence, precision, and control. Powered by Raja Saien."
Built for traders who value smart entries and reliable signals across all time zones.
Зміщена MA з урахуванням волатильності (ATR)This is an experimental script designed to mark potential entry points for spot or long futures trades.
It uses a moving average (SMA or EMA) that is dynamically shifted downward based on current ATR (volatility). When the price crosses above this adjusted MA, a potential long entry signal is generated.
A stoploss line is plotted below the adjusted MA — offset
RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR V3📊 RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR – Lot Size, Profit & R:R Tool
This script is designed to help traders instantly calculate lot size, expected profit, and risk/reward ratio based on their trade plan.
✅ Features:
Input your Risk Amount ($), Entry, Stop Loss, and up to 3 Take Profits
Calculates:
✅ Lot Size based on risk
✅ Split profits per TP level (equally weighted)
✅ Total Profit & Risk/Reward (R:R)
Displays everything in a clean bottom-right table
Optimized for both:
🖥️ Desktop mode (larger layout)
📱 Mobile mode (toggle compact view)
💡 How to Use:
Enter your planned Entry, Stop Loss, and Risk Amount
Set any TP1, TP2, or TP3 prices (set TP to 0 if not used)
The system will auto-compute your ideal lot size and show estimated profits
🔧 Parameters:
Risk Amount ($) – how much you’re willing to lose
Entry Price – your trade entry
Stop Loss Price – your SL level
Take Profit 1/2/3 – optional TP targets
Pip Value – profit/loss per point for 1 standard lot
📱 Mobile Mode – compact the table for small screens
🔐 Notes:
No trades are executed – this is a risk planning tool only
Designed for all markets (forex, gold, indices, crypto)
TP profits are equally split (e.g. 2 TP = 50% / 50%)
RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR📊 RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR – Lot Size, Profit & R:R Tool
This script is designed to help traders instantly calculate lot size, expected profit, and risk/reward ratio based on their trade plan.
✅ Features:
Input your Risk Amount ($), Entry, Stop Loss, and up to 3 Take Profits
Calculates:
✅ Lot Size based on risk
✅ Split profits per TP level (equally weighted)
✅ Total Profit & Risk/Reward (R:R)
Displays everything in a clean bottom-right table
Optimized for both:
🖥️ Desktop mode (larger layout)
📱 Mobile mode (toggle compact view)
💡 How to Use:
Enter your planned Entry, Stop Loss, and Risk Amount
Set any TP1, TP2, or TP3 prices (set TP to 0 if not used)
The system will auto-compute your ideal lot size and show estimated profits
🔧 Parameters:
Risk Amount ($) – how much you’re willing to lose
Entry Price – your trade entry
Stop Loss Price – your SL level
Take Profit 1/2/3 – optional TP targets
Pip Value – profit/loss per point for 1 standard lot
📱 Mobile Mode – compact the table for small screens
🔐 Notes:
No trades are executed – this is a risk planning tool only
Designed for all markets (forex, gold, indices, crypto)
TP profits are equally split (e.g. 2 TP = 50% / 50%)
Footprint-Style Order Flow by Kalibea📊 Indicator: "Footprint-Style Order Flow by Kalibea"
Simplified Order Flow Analysis for TradingView
This indicator was created by Kalibea to bring you the power of Order Flow analysis in a clear, practical way—without technical complexity and fully compatible with TradingView.
While TradingView doesn’t support traditional footprint charts, this tool simulates institutional market reading using a smart calculation of estimated volume delta, helping you make more informed trading decisions.
🔍 What does this indicator do?
Estimated Delta: Calculates the difference between buying and selling pressure per candle, based on price movement and volume.
Smart Visual Signals:
🔼 Green Triangle: Potential buy entry (buyer dominance).
🔽 Red Triangle: Potential sell entry (seller dominance).
Delta Histogram: Displays whether each candle was driven more by buyers or sellers.
Live Labels: Shows real-time delta values above each candle for quick interpretation.
🧠 How does it help your trading?
Detects real-time market imbalances (who's in control: buyers or sellers).
Improves entry and exit timing, especially on lower timeframes.
Helps you confirm other strategies such as supply/demand zones, support/resistance, or candlestick patterns.
Provides an institutional-style reading simplified for use within TradingView.
⚙️ Fully Customizable to Your Style
Adjust the delta sensitivity to suit any market: Forex, Crypto, Indices, and more.
Turn on/off visual signals and histogram as needed.
🔑 Recommended by Kalibea for:
✅ Intraday traders and scalpers
✅ Traders looking to take the next step into institutional-style analysis
✅ Those seeking precise entries without overcomplicating their charts
💬 “Order Flow is the market’s internal voice. This indicator helps you hear it—no expensive footprint software required.”
— Kalibea
Dual Supertrend tohungmc tikDual Supertrend is an advanced trend-following indicator that combines two Supertrend strategies — a Large Supertrend and a Small Supertrend — to provide you with more precise entry and exit signals.
This indicator plots two Supertrend lines:
Large Supertrend (Blue and Orange): A broader trend that reacts slower to price movements.
Small Supertrend (Green and Red): A faster trend that responds quicker to market changes.
Key Features:
Customizable ATR Periods and Multipliers for both Large and Small Supertrends.
Buy/Sell Signals: When the Small Supertrend trend changes, and it's aligned with the Large Supertrend, you get reliable buy and sell signals.
Highlighting: The background can be highlighted in green or red, depending on whether the Large Supertrend is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Alerts: Alerts can be set for buy/sell signals or when the trend direction changes.
Use Case:
This indicator is designed for traders looking to follow both long-term and short-term trends. By combining the slower Large Supertrend with the faster Small Supertrend, it gives a more comprehensive view of market trends and better entry/exit points.
Indicator Inputs:
ATR Periods and Multipliers: Control how sensitive the Supertrend reacts to market changes.
Highlighting: Enable/Disable background highlighting.
Buy/Sell Signals: Option to show buy/sell signals based on trend direction changes.
HF Crypto Scalping BotHigh-Frequency Crypto Scalping Bot for ETHUSDT
This bot is designed for scalping ETHUSDT on a 1-minute chart using a blend of technical indicators and market structure logic.
🔍 Strategy Highlights:
Range Mode: Uses RSI and MFI to identify overbought/oversold zones near support/resistance.
Trend Mode: Detects MACD momentum combined with confirmed S/R breakouts.
Smart Risk Management: Dynamic stop loss and take profit based on risk:reward ratio.
Adaptive Market Logic: Automatically switches between trend and range conditions.
Real-Time Table: Displays RSI, MFI, MACD trend, market mode, entry/exit prices, and stop/target levels.
Visual Cues: Buy/Sell/Exit signals plotted directly on the chart with color-coded levels.
Alerts: Integrated long/short entry and exit alerts with live price and indicator values.
Customize the input parameters to fit your risk profile and asset volatility. Ideal for fast-paced scalping with dynamic conditions.
ombs- PONY Breakout Alert
🧠 תקציר הסקריפט: **PONY Breakout Alert 📈
🔍 **מטרה**:
לזהות **פריצה מעלה של רמת 14.15** תוך כדי **מחזור מסחר גבוה מהממוצע**, כדי לאתר **הזדמנות מסחר שורית**.
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⚙️ רכיבי הסקריפט:
* 📌 **רמת כניסה**:
`entryLevel = 14.15`
* 📊 **תנאי כניסה**:
* סגירת מחיר **מעל 14.15**
* נפח מסחר **גבוה ב־20% מהממוצע ל־20 הימים האחרונים**
* 🔔 **התראה ויזואלית**:
* סמל ירוק "Entry" מופיע מתחת לנר על הגרף
* קווים קבועים לרמות יעד וסטופלוס
* 🎯 **יעדי רווח**:
* Target 1 – 15.15
* Target 2 – 16.00
* Target 3 – 17.00
* 🛑 **סטופלוס**:
* שמרני: 13.20
* אגרסיבי: 12.80
* 🔔 **התראה אוטומטית** (`alertcondition`):
תשלח הודעה:
*"PONY פרצה מעל 14.15 עם מחזור גבוה – שקול כניסה לעסקה."*
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📝 מתאים עבור:
* סוחרי ניתוח טכני 🧮
* מי שמחפש כניסה מבוססת על פריצה + נפח 📊
* שימוש על גרף יומי בלבד 📅
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🧠 Script Summary: PONY Breakout Alert 📈
🔍 Objective:
Detect a breakout above the 14.15 level accompanied by high trading volume, in order to identify a bullish trading opportunity.
⚙️ Script Components:
📌 Entry Level:
entryLevel = 14.15
📊 Entry Conditions:
Price closes above 14.15
Volume is 20% higher than the 20-day average
🔔 Visual Alert:
A green "Entry" label appears below the bar on the chart
Static horizontal lines mark targets and stop-loss levels
🎯 Profit Targets:
Target 1 – 15.15
Target 2 – 16.00
Target 3 – 17.00
🛑 Stop Loss:
Conservative: 13.20
Aggressive: 12.80
🔔 Automated Alert (alertcondition):
Sends a message:
"PONY has broken above 14.15 with high volume – consider a long position."
📝 Ideal For:
Technical traders 🧮
Those seeking breakouts confirmed by volume 📊
Daily chart setups only 📅
High Volume Reversal CandlesIdentifies candles which display reversal patterns (mainly hammers, inverted hammers, spinning top) on unusually high volume.
This makes the candlestick pattern more likely to fulfil.
Remember to always wait for confirmation; should only be used as an entry locator, not entry trigger.
Dynamic S/R System - Pivot + ChannelDynamic S/R System - Pivot + Channel
A comprehensive Support & Resistance indicator combining dual methodologies for institutional-grade price level analysis
📊 CORE FEATURES
Dual Detection System
• Pivot-Based Levels - Historical turning points with intelligent touch counting
• Dynamic Channel S/R - Trend-aware linear regression boundaries
• Smart Level Management - Auto-merges similar levels, removes weak/outdated ones
Volume Integration
• Multi-timeframe volume analysis using EMA oscillator and spike detection
• Volume confirmation for all breakout signals to filter false moves
• Real-time volume status (Normal/High/Spike) in live information panel
Intelligent Touch Counting
• Automatic level validation through touch frequency analysis
• Strength classification with visual differentiation (colors/thickness)
• Level labels showing exact touch count (S3, R5, etc.)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎨 VISUAL ELEMENTS
Line System
Solid Lines: Pivot-based S/R levels
Dashed Lines: Dynamic channel boundaries
Color Coding:
• 🔵 Blue/🔴 Red: Standard support/resistance
• 🟠 Orange: Strong levels (multiple touches)
• 🟣 Purple: Channel S/R levels
Signal Labels
• "B" - Pivot S/R breakout with volume confirmation
• "CB" - Channel boundary breakout
• "Bull/Bear Wick" - False breakout detection (wick rejections)
Information Panel
Real-time analysis displays:
• Total resistance/support levels detected
• Closest S/R levels to current price
• Volume status and position relative to levels
• Current market position assessment
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
✅ KEY ADVANTAGES
Multi-Method Validation
Combines historical pivot analysis with dynamic trend channels for comprehensive market view
False Breakout Protection
• Volume confirmation requirements
• Wick analysis to identify failed attempts
• Multiple validation criteria before signal generation
Adaptive Level Management
• Automatically updates as new pivots form
• Removes outdated/weak levels
• Maintains clean, relevant level display
Institutional-Grade Analysis
• Touch counting reveals institutional respect levels
• Volume integration shows smart money activity
• Strength classification identifies high-probability zones
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⏰ OPTIMAL USE CASES
Best Timeframes
• Daily - Primary recommendation for swing trading
• 4-Hour - Intraday analysis and entries
• Weekly - Long-term position planning
Ideal Markets
• Crypto pairs (especially ETH/BTC, BTC/USD)
• Forex majors with good volume data
• Large-cap stocks with institutional participation
Trading Applications
• Entry/exit planning around key S/R levels
• Breakout confirmation with volume validation
• Risk management using nearest S/R for stops
• Trend analysis through channel dynamics
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚙️ CONFIGURATION GUIDELINES
Conservative Setup (Higher Confidence)
Min Pivot Strength: 3-4
Volume Threshold: 25-30%
Max Levels: 6-8
Aggressive Setup (More Signals)
Min Pivot Strength: 2
Volume Threshold: 15-20%
Max Levels: 10-12
🔔 ALERT SYSTEM
Breakout Alerts
• Resistance/Support breaks with volume confirmation
• Channel boundary violations
• Approaching strong S/R levels
Advanced Notifications
• Strong level approaches (within 0.5% of price)
• False breakout detection
• Volume spike confirmations
📈 TRADING STRATEGY GUIDE
Entry Strategy
1. Wait for price to approach identified S/R level
2. Confirm with volume analysis (spike/high volume preferred)
3. Watch for wick formations indicating rejection
4. Enter on confirmed breakout with volume or bounce with rejection
Risk Management
• Use nearest S/R level for stop placement
• Scale position size based on level strength (touch count)
• Monitor volume confirmation for exit signals
Market Context
• Combine with higher timeframe trend analysis
• Consider overall market sentiment and volatility
• Use channel direction for bias confirmation
Transform complex S/R analysis into actionable trading intelligence with institutional-level insights for professional trading decisions.
Drawdown Distribution Analysis (DDA) ACADEMIC FOUNDATION AND RESEARCH BACKGROUND
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator implements quantitative risk management principles, drawing upon decades of academic research in portfolio theory, behavioral finance, and statistical risk modeling. This tool provides risk assessment capabilities for traders and portfolio managers seeking to understand their current position within historical drawdown patterns.
The theoretical foundation of this indicator rests on modern portfolio theory as established by Markowitz (1952), who introduced the fundamental concepts of risk-return optimization that continue to underpin contemporary portfolio management. Sharpe (1966) later expanded this framework by developing risk-adjusted performance measures, most notably the Sharpe ratio, which remains a cornerstone of performance evaluation in financial markets.
The specific focus on drawdown analysis builds upon the work of Chekhlov, Uryasev and Zabarankin (2005), who provided the mathematical framework for incorporating drawdown measures into portfolio optimization. Their research demonstrated that traditional mean-variance optimization often fails to capture the full risk profile of investment strategies, particularly regarding sequential losses. More recent work by Goldberg and Mahmoud (2017) has brought these theoretical concepts into practical application within institutional risk management frameworks.
Value at Risk methodology, as comprehensively outlined by Jorion (2007), provides the statistical foundation for the risk measurement components of this indicator. The coherent risk measures framework developed by Artzner et al. (1999) ensures that the risk metrics employed satisfy the mathematical properties required for sound risk management decisions. Additionally, the focus on downside risk follows the framework established by Sortino and Price (1994), while the drawdown-adjusted performance measures implement concepts introduced by Young (1991).
MATHEMATICAL METHODOLOGY
The core calculation methodology centers on a peak-tracking algorithm that continuously monitors the maximum price level achieved and calculates the percentage decline from this peak. The drawdown at any time t is defined as DD(t) = (P(t) - Peak(t)) / Peak(t) × 100, where P(t) represents the asset price at time t and Peak(t) represents the running maximum price observed up to time t.
Statistical distribution analysis forms the analytical backbone of the indicator. The system calculates key percentiles using the ta.percentile_nearest_rank() function to establish the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of the historical drawdown distribution. This approach provides a complete picture of how the current drawdown compares to historical patterns.
Statistical significance assessment employs standard deviation bands at one, two, and three standard deviations from the mean, following the conventional approach where the upper band equals μ + nσ and the lower band equals μ - nσ. The Z-score calculation, defined as Z = (DD - μ) / σ, enables the identification of statistically extreme events, with thresholds set at |Z| > 2.5 for extreme drawdowns and |Z| > 3.0 for severe drawdowns, corresponding to confidence levels exceeding 99.4% and 99.7% respectively.
ADVANCED RISK METRICS
The indicator incorporates several risk-adjusted performance measures that extend beyond basic drawdown analysis. The Sharpe ratio calculation follows the standard formula Sharpe = (R - Rf) / σ, where R represents the annualized return, Rf represents the risk-free rate, and σ represents the annualized volatility. The system supports dynamic sourcing of the risk-free rate from the US 10-year Treasury yield or allows for manual specification.
The Sortino ratio addresses the limitation of the Sharpe ratio by focusing exclusively on downside risk, calculated as Sortino = (R - Rf) / σd, where σd represents the downside deviation computed using only negative returns. This measure provides a more accurate assessment of risk-adjusted performance for strategies that exhibit asymmetric return distributions.
The Calmar ratio, defined as Annual Return divided by the absolute value of Maximum Drawdown, offers a direct measure of return per unit of drawdown risk. This metric proves particularly valuable for comparing strategies or assets with different risk profiles, as it directly relates performance to the maximum historical loss experienced.
Value at Risk calculations provide quantitative estimates of potential losses at specified confidence levels. The 95% VaR corresponds to the 5th percentile of the drawdown distribution, while the 99% VaR corresponds to the 1st percentile. Conditional VaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, estimates the average loss in the worst 5% of scenarios, providing insight into tail risk that standard VaR measures may not capture.
To enable fair comparison across assets with different volatility characteristics, the indicator calculates volatility-adjusted drawdowns using the formula Adjusted DD = Raw DD / (Volatility / 20%). This normalization allows for meaningful comparison between high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies and lower-volatility instruments like government bonds.
The Risk Efficiency Score represents a composite measure ranging from 0 to 100 that combines the Sharpe ratio and current percentile rank to provide a single metric for quick asset assessment. Higher scores indicate superior risk-adjusted performance relative to historical patterns.
COLOR SCHEMES AND VISUALIZATION
The indicator implements eight distinct color themes designed to accommodate different analytical preferences and market contexts. The EdgeTools theme employs a corporate blue palette that matches the design system used throughout the edgetools.org platform, ensuring visual consistency across analytical tools.
The Gold theme specifically targets precious metals analysis with warm tones that complement gold chart analysis, while the Quant theme provides a grayscale scheme suitable for analytical environments that prioritize clarity over aesthetic appeal. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color coding, using green to represent greed-driven market conditions and red to indicate fear-driven environments.
Additional themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes, each designed for specific market conditions or user preferences. All themes function effectively with both dark and light mode trading platforms, ensuring accessibility across different user interface configurations.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Asset allocation and portfolio construction represent primary use cases for this analytical framework. When comparing multiple assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, traders can examine Risk Efficiency Scores to identify instruments offering superior risk-adjusted performance. The 95% VaR provides worst-case scenario comparisons, while volatility-adjusted drawdowns enable fair comparison despite varying volatility profiles.
The practical decision framework suggests that assets with Risk Efficiency Scores above 70 may be suitable for aggressive portfolio allocations, scores between 40 and 70 indicate moderate allocation potential, and scores below 40 suggest defensive positioning or avoidance. These thresholds should be adjusted based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions.
Risk management and position sizing applications utilize the current percentile rank to guide allocation decisions. When the current drawdown ranks above the 75th percentile of historical data, indicating that current conditions are better than 75% of historical periods, position increases may be warranted. Conversely, when percentile rankings fall below the 25th percentile, indicating elevated risk conditions, position reductions become advisable.
Institutional portfolio monitoring applications include hedge fund risk dashboard implementations where multiple strategies can be monitored simultaneously. Sharpe ratio tracking identifies deteriorating risk-adjusted performance across strategies, VaR monitoring ensures portfolios remain within established risk limits, and drawdown duration tracking provides valuable information for investor reporting requirements.
Market timing applications combine the statistical analysis with trend identification techniques. Strong buy signals may emerge when risk levels register as "Low" in conjunction with established uptrends, while extreme risk levels combined with downtrends may indicate exit or hedging opportunities. Z-scores exceeding 3.0 often signal statistically oversold conditions that may precede trend reversals.
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND VALIDATION
The indicator provides 95% confidence intervals around current drawdown levels using the standard formula CI = μ ± 1.96σ. This statistical framework enables users to assess whether current conditions fall within normal market variation or represent statistically significant departures from historical patterns.
Risk level classification employs a dynamic assessment system based on percentile ranking within the historical distribution. Low risk designation applies when current drawdowns perform better than 50% of historical data, moderate risk encompasses the 25th to 50th percentile range, high risk covers the 10th to 25th percentile range, and extreme risk applies to the worst 10% of historical drawdowns.
Sample size considerations play a crucial role in statistical reliability. For daily data, the system requires a minimum of 252 trading days (approximately one year) but performs better with 500 or more observations. Weekly data analysis benefits from at least 104 weeks (two years) of history, while monthly data requires a minimum of 60 months (five years) for reliable statistical inference.
IMPLEMENTATION BEST PRACTICES
Parameter optimization should consider the specific characteristics of different asset classes. Equity analysis typically benefits from 500-day lookback periods with 21-day smoothing, while cryptocurrency analysis may employ 365-day lookback periods with 14-day smoothing to account for higher volatility patterns. Fixed income analysis often requires longer lookback periods of 756 days with 34-day smoothing to capture the lower volatility environment.
Multi-timeframe analysis provides hierarchical risk assessment capabilities. Daily timeframe analysis supports tactical risk management decisions, weekly analysis informs strategic positioning choices, and monthly analysis guides long-term allocation decisions. This hierarchical approach ensures that risk assessment occurs at appropriate temporal scales for different investment objectives.
Integration with complementary indicators enhances the analytical framework. Trend indicators such as RSI and moving averages provide directional bias context, volume analysis helps confirm the severity of drawdown conditions, and volatility measures like VIX or ATR assist in market regime identification.
ALERT SYSTEM AND AUTOMATION
The automated alert system monitors five distinct categories of risk events. Risk level changes trigger notifications when drawdowns move between risk categories, enabling proactive risk management responses. Statistical significance alerts activate when Z-scores exceed established threshold levels of 2.5 or 3.0 standard deviations.
New maximum drawdown alerts notify users when historical maximum levels are exceeded, indicating entry into uncharted risk territory. Poor risk efficiency alerts trigger when the composite risk efficiency score falls below 30, suggesting deteriorating risk-adjusted performance. Sharpe ratio decline alerts activate when risk-adjusted performance turns negative, indicating that returns no longer compensate for the risk undertaken.
TRADING STRATEGIES
Conservative risk parity strategies can be implemented by monitoring Risk Efficiency Scores across a diversified asset portfolio. Monthly rebalancing maintains equal risk contribution from each asset, with allocation reductions triggered when risk levels reach "High" status and complete exits executed when "Extreme" risk levels emerge. This approach typically results in lower overall portfolio volatility, improved risk-adjusted returns, and reduced maximum drawdown periods.
Tactical asset rotation strategies compare Risk Efficiency Scores across different asset classes to guide allocation decisions. Assets with scores exceeding 60 receive overweight allocations, while assets scoring below 40 receive underweight positions. Percentile rankings provide timing guidance for allocation adjustments, creating a systematic approach to asset allocation that responds to changing risk-return profiles.
Market timing strategies with statistical edges can be constructed by entering positions when Z-scores fall below -2.5, indicating statistically oversold conditions, and scaling out when Z-scores exceed 2.5, suggesting overbought conditions. The 95% VaR serves as a stop-loss reference point, while trend confirmation indicators provide additional validation for position entry and exit decisions.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
Several statistical limitations affect the interpretation and application of these risk measures. Historical bias represents a fundamental challenge, as past drawdown patterns may not accurately predict future risk characteristics, particularly during structural market changes or regime shifts. Sample dependence means that results can be sensitive to the selected lookback period, with shorter periods providing more responsive but potentially less stable estimates.
Market regime changes can significantly alter the statistical parameters underlying the analysis. During periods of structural market evolution, historical distributions may provide poor guidance for future expectations. Additionally, many financial assets exhibit return distributions with fat tails that deviate from normal distribution assumptions, potentially leading to underestimation of extreme event probabilities.
Practical limitations include execution risk, where theoretical signals may not translate directly into actual trading results due to factors such as slippage, timing delays, and market impact. Liquidity constraints mean that risk metrics assume perfect liquidity, which may not hold during stressed market conditions when risk management becomes most critical.
Transaction costs are not incorporated into risk-adjusted return calculations, potentially overstating the attractiveness of strategies that require frequent trading. Behavioral factors represent another limitation, as human psychology may override statistical signals, particularly during periods of extreme market stress when disciplined risk management becomes most challenging.
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION
Performance optimization ensures reliable operation across different market conditions and timeframes. All technical analysis functions are extracted from conditional statements to maintain Pine Script compliance and ensure consistent execution. Memory efficiency is achieved through optimized variable scoping and array usage, while computational speed benefits from vectorized calculations where possible.
Data quality requirements include clean price data without gaps or errors that could distort distribution analysis. Sufficient historical data is essential, with a minimum of 100 bars required and 500 or more preferred for reliable statistical inference. Time alignment across related assets ensures meaningful comparison when conducting multi-asset analysis.
The configuration parameters are organized into logical groups to enhance usability. Core settings include the Distribution Analysis Period (100-2000 bars), Drawdown Smoothing Period (1-50 bars), and Price Source selection. Advanced metrics settings control risk-free rate sourcing, either from live market data or fixed rate specification, along with toggles for various risk-adjusted metric calculations.
Display options provide flexibility in visual presentation, including color theme selection from eight available schemes, automatic dark mode optimization, and control over table display, position lines, percentile bands, and standard deviation overlays. These options ensure that the indicator can be adapted to different analytical workflows and visual preferences.
CONCLUSION
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator provides risk management tools for traders seeking to understand their current position within historical risk patterns. By combining established statistical methodology with practical usability features, the tool enables evidence-based risk assessment and portfolio optimization decisions.
The implementation draws upon established academic research while providing practical features that address real-world trading requirements. Dynamic risk-free rate integration ensures accurate risk-adjusted performance calculations, while multiple color schemes accommodate different analytical preferences and use cases.
Academic compliance is maintained through transparent methodology and acknowledgment of limitations. The tool implements peer-reviewed statistical techniques while clearly communicating the constraints and assumptions underlying the analysis. This approach ensures that users can make informed decisions about the appropriate application of the risk assessment framework within their broader trading and investment processes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M. and Heath, D. (1999) 'Coherent Measures of Risk', Mathematical Finance, 9(3), pp. 203-228.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S. and Zabarankin, M. (2005) 'Drawdown Measure in Portfolio Optimization', International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 8(1), pp. 13-58.
Goldberg, L.R. and Mahmoud, O. (2017) 'Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again', Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 10(2), pp. 140-152.
Jorion, P. (2007) Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Markowitz, H. (1952) 'Portfolio Selection', Journal of Finance, 7(1), pp. 77-91.
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) 'Mutual Fund Performance', Journal of Business, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
Sortino, F.A. and Price, L.N. (1994) 'Performance Measurement in a Downside Risk Framework', Journal of Investing, 3(3), pp. 59-64.
Young, T.W. (1991) 'Calmar Ratio: A Smoother Tool', Futures, 20(1), pp. 40-42.
Elite MA Trend Overlay [9/21/50/200 + VWAP + HMA]🔍 What It Is:
The Elite MA Trend Overlay is a professional-grade moving average system built for day traders, scalpers, and swing traders who need clear, visual trend confirmation and precise entry zones across all timeframes.
This overlay combines 5 industry-proven tools into one compact indicator for sniper-level decision making:
EMA 9 – Entry momentum
EMA 21 – Microstructure guide
EMA 50 – Trend bias filter
EMA 200 – Institutional macro direction
VWAP – Intraday fair value (used by pros)
Hull MA (HMA) – Early shift detector
It also features auto-detected trend zones using color-coded background shading to help you instantly know if the market is in a bullish or bearish regime.
🧠 How It Works:
The script dynamically plots the short-term to long-term moving averages to reflect real-time market structure. When all EMAs are aligned in one direction, a colored background highlights the dominant trend:
✅ Green background = Bullish trend (9 > 21 > 50 > 200)
🔻 Red background = Bearish trend (9 < 21 < 50 < 200)
The VWAP line acts as a magnet and decision zone—traders use it for intraday entries or exits. The Hull Moving Average adapts quickly to price shifts, making it perfect for spotting early reversals before the EMAs cross.
🎯 Why It Helps Traders Succeed:
This indicator:
Removes guesswork: Know instantly if you’re in a strong trend or chop zone.
Filters bad trades: Avoid entering against structure or into volatility traps.
Improves timing: Use pullbacks to EMAs or Hull MA flips for sniper entries.
Works across timeframes: From scalping 1-minute to swing trading daily charts.
Whether you're trading gold, forex, stocks, or crypto — this overlay gives you clean, professional structure that keeps you disciplined and sharp.
⚙️ Features:
On/off toggles for VWAP & Hull MA
Minimalist, clutter-free plotting
Auto background color zones
Supports Pine Script v6 (latest version)
👑 Recommended Use:
Confirm trend with background + EMA alignment
Enter on pullbacks to EMA 21 or 50
Use Hull MA or RSI for early reversal detection
Exit at VWAP reversion or trend exhaustion
💬 “Structure is everything. Trade with the flow, not against it.”
Opening Range v3 (Dynamic)Opening Range Signals v3 (Dynamic) - Indicator Guide
Created by: MecarderoAurum
Why This Indicator Exists: An Overview
The "Opening Range Signals" indicator is a sophisticated tool designed for day traders who focus their strategy on the price action that unfolds during the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) of the New York session (09:30 - 16:00 ET). The opening period of the market, often called the "initial balance," is a critical time where institutions and traders establish the early high and low for the day. Trading the breakout of this range is a classic and effective strategy, but it's often plagued by false moves and "head fakes."
This indicator was built to solve that problem. It not only identifies the initial range but also incorporates a powerful dynamic expansion feature. This allows the indicator to intelligently adapt to early session volatility, filter out false breakouts, and establish more reliable support and resistance levels for the rest of the trading day. It provides a clear, visual framework for executing opening range strategies with more confidence.
Key Features & How to Use Them
1. Customizable Opening Range
This is the foundation of the indicator. It draws the high and low of the initial trading period on your chart.
What it does: Establishes the initial support and resistance levels for the day.
How to use it: In the settings under "Time Settings," you can set the "Opening Range Duration" from 1 to 30 minutes. A shorter duration (e.g., 5 minutes) will be more sensitive and give earlier signals, while a longer duration (e.g., 30 minutes) will establish a wider, more robust range.
2. Dynamic Range Expansion
This is the indicator's most powerful and unique feature. It helps you avoid getting trapped in false breakouts.
What it does: If the price breaks out of the initial range but then quickly closes back inside, the indicator will automatically expand the range to include the full wick of the failed breakout. This tells you the market is still establishing its true range.
How to use it: In the settings under "Dynamic Range," you can:
"Enable Dynamic Range Expansion": This is on by default.
"Expansion Time Limit (Min)": Set how long the indicator should look for these failed breakouts. After this time, the range will be locked for the day.
3. Clear Visual Trading Signals
The indicator provides three distinct signals to help you interpret the price action around the opening range.
Breakout Body (Yellow plotshape):
What it means: The first confirmation that the price has decisively moved outside the established range. It appears when a candle's body closes entirely above the high or below the low.
How to use it: This is your alert that a potential breakout is underway. Do not enter yet; wait for confirmation.
Continuation (Green plotshape):
What it means: This signal appears on the candle immediately following a breakout if it shows momentum in the same direction. It confirms that the breakout has strength.
How to use it: This is a potential entry trigger. A continuation signal suggests the breakout is valid and may continue.
Failure (Red plotshape):
What it means: This signal appears if, after a breakout and continuation, the price quickly reverses and closes back inside the range. It's a strong indication of a false breakout.
How to use it: If you are in a breakout trade, a failure signal is a clear sign to exit. It can also be used as a setup for a reversal trade in the opposite direction.
Sample Strategy: The Breakout-Continuation Trade
This strategy uses the indicator's signals to trade a classic opening range breakout with added confirmation.
Setup:
Set the "Opening Range Duration" to your preferred time (e.g., 5 or 15 minutes).
Ensure the "Dynamic Range Expansion" is enabled to filter out early noise.
Entry Trigger:
Wait for a Breakout signal (yellow) to appear. This puts you on high alert.
Wait for a Continuation signal (green) on the very next candle. This is your entry trigger. Enter a long trade on a bullish continuation or a short trade on a bearish continuation.
Stop-Loss:
For a bullish (long) trade, a common stop-loss placement is just below the low of the continuation candle or, for a more conservative stop, just inside the opening range high.
For a bearish (short) trade, place your stop-loss just above the high of the continuation candle or just inside the opening range low.
Trade Management:
If a Failure signal (red) appears after you've entered, it indicates the breakout has failed. This is a strong signal to exit your trade immediately to protect your capital.
If the trade moves in your favor, you can manage it by taking profits at key levels or using a trailing stop.
Volume Footprint Anomaly Scanner [PhenLabs]📊 PhenLabs - Volume Footprint Anomaly Scanner (VFAS)
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The PhenLabs Volume Footprint Anomaly Scanner (VFAS) is an advanced Pine Script indicator designed to detect and highlight significant imbalances in buying and selling pressure within individual price bars. By analyzing a calculated "Delta" – the net difference between estimated buy and sell volume – and employing statistical Z-score analysis, VFAS pinpoints moments when buying or selling activity becomes unusually dominant. This script was created not in hopes of creating a "Buy and Sell" indicator but rather providing the user with a more in-depth insight into the intrabar volume delta and how it can fluctuate in unusual ways, leading to anomalies that can be capitalized on.
This indicator helps traders identify high-conviction points where strong market participants are active, signaling potential shifts in momentum or continuation of a trend. It aims to provide a clearer understanding of underlying market dynamics, allowing for more informed decision-making in various trading strategies, from identifying entry points to confirming trend strength.
🚀 Points of Innovation
● Z-Score for Delta Analysis : Utilizes statistical Z-scores to objectively identify statistically significant anomalies in buying/selling pressure, moving beyond simple, arbitrary thresholds.
● Dynamic Confidence Scoring : Assigns a multi-star confidence rating (1-4 stars) to each signal, factoring in high volume, trend alignment, and specific confirmation criteria, providing a nuanced view of signal strength.
● Integrated Trend Filtering : Offers an optional Exponential Moving Average (EMA)-based trend filter to ensure signals align with the broader market direction, reducing false positives in ranging markets.
● Strict Confirmation Logic : Implements specific confirmation criteria for higher-confidence signals, including price action and a time-based gap from previous signals, enhancing reliability.
● Intuitive Info Dashboard : Provides a real-time summary of market trend and the latest signal's direction and confidence directly on the chart, streamlining information access.
🔧 Core Components
● Core Delta Engine : Estimates the net buying/selling pressure (bar Delta) by analyzing price movement within each bar relative to volume. It also calculates average volume to identify bars with unusually high activity.
● Anomaly Detection (Z-Score) : Computes the Z-score for the current bar's Delta, indicating how many standard deviations it is from its recent average. This statistical measure is central to identifying significant anomalies.
● Trend Filter : Utilizes a dual Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross-over system to define the prevailing market trend (uptrend, downtrend, or range), providing contextual awareness.
● Signal Processing & Confidence Algorithm : Evaluates anomaly conditions against trend filters and confirmation rules, then calculates a dynamic confidence score to produce actionable, contextualized signal information.
🔥 Key Features
● Advanced Delta Anomaly Detection : Pinpoints bars with exceptionally high buying or selling pressure, indicating potential institutional activity or strong market conviction.
● Multi-Factor Confidence Scoring : Each signal comes with a 1-4 star rating, clearly communicating its reliability based on high volume, trend alignment, and specific confirmation criteria.
● Optional Trend Alignment : Users can choose to filter signals, so only those aligned with the prevailing EMA-defined trend are displayed, enhancing signal quality.
● Interactive Signal Labels : Displays compact labels on the chart at anomaly points, offering detailed tooltips upon hover, including signal type, direction, confidence, and contextual information.
● Customizable Bar Colors : Visually highlights bars with Delta anomalies, providing an immediate visual cue for strong buying or selling activity.
● Real-time Info Dashboard : A clean, customizable dashboard shows the current market trend and details of the latest detected signal, keeping key information accessible at a glance.
● Configurable Alerts : Set up alerts for bullish or bearish Delta anomalies to receive real-time notifications when significant market pressure shifts occur.
🎨 Visualization
Signal Labels :
* Placed at the top/bottom of anomaly bars, showing a "📈" (bullish) or "📉" (bearish) icon.
* Tooltip: Hovering over a label reveals detailed information: Signal Type (e.g., "Delta Anomaly"), Direction, Confidence (e.g., "★★★☆"), and a descriptive explanation of the anomaly.
* Interpretation: Clearly marks actionable signals and provides deep insights without cluttering the chart, enabling quick assessment of signal strength and context.
● Info Dashboard :
* Located at the top-right of the chart, providing a clean summary.
* Displays: "PhenLabs - VFAS" header, "Market Trend" (Uptrend/Downtrend/Range with color-coded status), and "Direction | Conf." (showing the last signal's direction and star confidence).
* Optional "💡 Hover over signals for details" reminder.
* Interpretation: A concise, real-time summary of the market's pulse and the most recent high-conviction event, helping traders stay informed at a glance.
📖 Usage Guidelines
Setting Categories
⚙️ Core Delta & Volume Engine
● Minimum Volume Lookback (Bars)
○ Default: 9
○ Range: Integer (e.g., 5-50)
○ Description: Defines the number of preceding bars used to calculate the average volume and delta. Bars with volume below this average won't be considered for high-volume signals. A shorter lookback is more reactive to recent changes, while a longer one provides a smoother average.
📈 Anomaly Detection Settings
Delta Z-Score Anomaly Threshold
○ Default: 2.5
○ Range: Float (e.g., 1.0-5.0+)
○ Description: The number of standard deviations from the mean that a bar's delta must exceed to be considered a significant anomaly. A higher threshold means fewer, but potentially stronger, signals. A lower threshold will generate more signals, which might include less significant events. Experiment to find the optimal balance for your trading style.
🔬 Context Filters
Enable Trend Filter
○ Default: False
○ Range: Boolean (True/False)
○ Description: When enabled, signals will only be generated if they align with the current market trend as determined by the EMAs (e.g., only bullish signals in an uptrend, bearish in a downtrend). This helps to filter out counter-trend noise.
● Trend EMA Fast
○ Default: 50
○ Range: Integer (e.g., 10-100)
○ Description: The period for the faster Exponential Moving Average used in the trend filter. In combination with the slow EMA, it defines the trend direction.
● Trend EMA Slow
○ Default: 200
○ Range: Integer (e.g., 100-400)
○ Description: The period for the slower Exponential Moving Average used in the trend filter. The relationship between the fast and slow EMA determines if the market is in an uptrend (fast > slow) or downtrend (fast < slow).
🎨 Visual & UI Settings
● Show Info Dashboard
○ Default: True
○ Range: Boolean (True/False)
○ Description: Toggles the visibility of the dashboard on the chart, which provides a summary of market trend and the last detected signal.
● Show Dashboard Tooltip
○ Default: True
○ Range: Boolean (True/False)
○ Description: Toggles a reminder message in the dashboard to hover over signal labels for more detailed information.
● Show Delta Anomaly Bar Colors
○ Default: True
○ Range: Boolean (True/False)
○ Description: Enables or disables the coloring of bars based on their delta direction and whether they represent a significant anomaly.
● Show Signal Labels
○ Default: True
○ Range: Boolean (True/False)
○ Description: Controls the visibility of the “📈” or “📉” labels that appear on the chart when a delta anomaly signal is generated.
🔔 Alert Settings
Alert on Delta Anomaly
○ Default: True
○ Range: Boolean (True/False)
○ Description: When enabled, this setting allows you to set up alerts in TradingView that will trigger whenever a new bullish or bearish delta anomaly is detected.
✅ Best Use Cases
Early Trend Reversal / Continuation Detection: Identify strong surges of buying/selling pressure at key support/resistance levels that could indicate a reversal or the continuation of a strong move.
● Confirmation of Breakouts: Use high-confidence delta anomalies to confirm the validity of price breakouts, indicating strong conviction behind the move.
● Entry and Exit Points: Pinpoint precise entry opportunities when anomalies align with your trading strategy, or identify potential exhaustion signals for exiting trades.
● Scalping and Day Trading: The indicator’s sensitivity to intraday buying/selling imbalances makes it highly effective for short-term trading strategies.
● Market Sentiment Analysis: Gain a real-time understanding of underlying market sentiment by observing the prevalence and strength of bullish vs. bearish anomalies.
⚠️ Limitations
Estimated Delta: The script uses a simplified method to estimate delta based on bar close relative to its range, not actual order book or footprint data. While effective, it’s an approximation.
● Sensitivity to Z-Score Threshold: The effectiveness heavily relies on the `Delta Z-Score Anomaly Threshold`. Too low, and you’ll get many false positives; too high, and you might miss valid signals.
● Confirmation Criteria: The 4-star confidence level’s “confirmation” relies on specific subsequent bar conditions and previous confirmed signals, which might be too strict or specific for all contexts.
● Requires Context: While powerful, VFAS is best used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and price action to form a comprehensive trading strategy. It is not a standalone “buy/sell” signal.
💡 What Makes This Unique
Statistical Rigor: The application of Z-score analysis to bar delta provides an objective, statistically-driven way to identify true anomalies, moving beyond arbitrary thresholds.
● Multi-Factor Confidence Scoring: The unique 1-4 star confidence system integrates multiple market dynamics (volume, trend alignment, specific follow-through) into a single, easy-to-interpret rating.
● User-Friendly Design: From the intuitive dashboard to the detailed signal tooltips, the indicator prioritizes clear and accessible information for traders of all experience levels.
🔬 How It Works
1. Bar Delta Calculation:
● The script first estimates the “buy volume” and “sell volume” for each bar. This is done by assuming that volume proportional to the distance from the low to the close represents buying, and volume proportional to the distance from the high to the close represents selling.
● How this contributes: This provides a proxy for the net buying or selling pressure (delta) within that specific price bar, even without access to actual footprint data.
2. Volume & Delta Z-Score Analysis:
● The average volume over a user-defined lookback period is calculated. Bars with volume less than twice this average are generally considered of lower interest.
● The Z-score for the calculated bar delta is computed. The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the current bar’s delta is from its average delta over the `Minimum Volume Lookback` period.
● How this contributes: A high positive Z-score indicates a bullish delta anomaly (significantly more buying than usual), while a high negative Z-score indicates a bearish delta anomaly (significantly more selling than usual). This identifies statistically unusual levels of pressure.
3. Trend Filtering (Optional):
● Two Exponential Moving Averages (Fast and Slow EMA) are used to determine the prevailing market trend. An uptrend is identified when the Fast EMA is above the Slow EMA, and a downtrend when the Fast EMA is below the Slow EMA.
● How this contributes: If enabled, the indicator will only display bullish delta anomalies during an uptrend and bearish delta anomalies during a downtrend, helping to confirm signals within the broader market context and avoid counter-trend signals.
4. Signal Generation & Confidence Scoring:
● When a delta Z-score exceeds the user-defined anomaly threshold, a signal is generated.
● This signal is then passed through a multi-factor confidence algorithm (`f_calculateConfidence`). It awards stars based on: high volume presence, alignment with the overall trend (if enabled), and a fourth star for very strong Z-scores (above 3.0) combined with specific follow-through candle patterns after a cooling-off period from a previous confirmed signal.
● How this contributes: Provides a qualitative rating (1-4 stars) for each anomaly, allowing traders to quickly assess the potential significance and reliability of the signal.
💡 Note:
The PhenLabs Volume Footprint Anomaly Scanner is a powerful analytical tool, but it’s crucial to understand that no indicator guarantees profit. Always backtest and forward-test the indicator settings on your chosen assets and timeframes. Consider integrating VFAS with your existing trading strategy, using its signals as confirmation for entries, exits, or trend bias. The Z-score threshold is highly customizable; lower values will yield more signals (including potential noise), while higher values will provide fewer but potentially higher-conviction signals. Adjust this parameter based on market volatility and your risk tolerance. Remember to combine statistical insights from VFAS with price action, support/resistance levels, and your overall market outlook for optimal results.
Elite 30 Min Pivot - by TenAM Trader.🔍 How It Works
Trend Detection:
A trend is defined when a configurable number (default: 3) of same-colored candles (green or red) appear in a row.
The pivot is marked by the first opposite-color candle after the trend.
Signal Logic:
After the pivot forms, the script watches the next few candles (default: 2) for a breakout or close beyond the pivot high/low.
A BUY signal is triggered when price breaks/closes above a pivot high from a downtrend.
A SELL signal is triggered when price breaks/closes below a pivot low from an uptrend.
Entry & Risk Tools:
Optional features include:
Pivot Line – dashed level showing pivot entry point.
Stop Loss Line – opposite side of the pivot candle.
Labels – toggle labels for clarity on entry and risk.
Time Filter – exclude signals during specific hours (e.g. 11 AM–2 PM) to avoid lunchtime chop.
Alerts:
Enable alerts for automated notifications when buy or sell conditions are met.
⚙️ Customizable Settings
Consecutive candles required before pivot
Max bars allowed after pivot for signal
Signal trigger: Break or Close
Toggle visibility of pivot lines, stop loss, and labels
Set excluded time blocks
Enable/disable real-time alerts
✅ Use Case Example
If you set trend length to 3 and signal trigger to “Break,” the script will look for 3 consecutive red candles, then a green candle (pivot). If price breaks above the pivot high within the next 2 candles, a Buy signal will fire.
⚠️ Legal Note
This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions. Use at your own risk.
