BTC - VDD Multiple (Approx)

Overview & Philosophy
⚠️ Note: This indicator is optimized for the Daily (1D) Timeframe. Please switch your chart to 1D for accurate signal reading.

The BTC – VDD Multiple (Approx) is an advanced oscillator designed to identify market overheating and cycle tops by analyzing the velocity of value moving through the market.

In traditional On-Chain Analysis, Value Days Destroyed (VDD) is a premier metric for spotting macro tops. It multiplies the coin age (how long a coin was held) by the price at which it was moved. When old coins (HODLer money) move at high prices, VDD spikes, signaling massive profit-taking.

The Problem: Real "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD) data is typically locked behind institutional paywalls or unavailable on standard TradingView plans.
The Solution: This script calculates a Deterministic Proxy. By analyzing the relationship between Exchange Volume, Price, and a Dormancy Constant, we can approximate the structure of the VDD Multiple without needing a premium data feed.

Methodology
The VDD Multiple works by comparing short-term market velocity against a long-term baseline.

1. The Proxy Calculation
Since we cannot directly access the age of coins on TradingView, we model the economic weight of the move:
Proxy Value = Exchange Volume * Price * Dormancy Factor
This creates a synthetic representation of "Value Throughput."

2. The Multiple
We compare the immediate heat of the market against the yearly trend:
• Short-Term MA (2 Days): Captures flash spikes and sudden liquidity exit events.
• Long-Term MA (365 Days): Represents the baseline "hum" of network activity.

VDD Multiple = Short Term MA / Long Term MA

How to Read the Chart
The indicator plots the Multiple as a line and uses background highlighting to signal extreme regimes.

🔴 The Red Zone (Overheated > 2.9)
Meaning: Current value transfer is ~3x higher than the yearly average.
Interpretation: Historically, sharp spikes into the Red Zone correlate with Local or Cycle Tops. This indicates that massive volume is changing hands at high prices—typically a sign of "Smart Money" distributing into "Dumb Money" FOMO.
Note: In strong bull runs, price can push higher even after a VDD spike, but the risk/reward ratio is extremely poor here.

🟢 The Green Zone (Undervalued < 0.75)
Meaning: Market activity is quiet and below the yearly baseline.
Interpretation: These are periods of apathy or accumulation. Historically, extended time spent in the Green Zone (the "flatline") has offered the best asymmetric buying opportunities.

🟠 The Orange Line (Neutral)
Meaning: The market is in transition or equilibrium.

Strategy & Context
This indicator is best used as a Macro Cycle Tool, not a day-trading signal.

• Exit Strategy: Look for "Clusters" of Red Spikes. A single spike often marks a local correction, but a cluster of intense spikes while price makes new highs (Divergence) is a strong Cycle Top warning.
• Entry Strategy: Historically the best entries occur when the indicator flattens out in the Green Zone for weeks or months. This suggests sellers are exhausted and the market has reached a floor.

Credits
This script is an approximation of the original VDD Multiple concept. Full credit for the underlying on-chain theory goes to the pioneers of this metric:
• Concept: The original Value Days Destroyed metric was popularized by Hans Hauge and Glassnode.
• The Multiple: The specific application of a Short/Long MA Multiple on VDD is widely attributed to analysts like TXMC and Bitbo.
This script adapts these concepts for the free TradingView environment using exchange volume proxies.

Settings
• Data Source: Defaults to BINANCE:BTCUSDT to capture high-volume liquidity.
• Short MA: Default is 2 Days to capture rapid velocity spikes.
• Long MA: Default is 365 Days to track the annual trend.

Disclaimer
This tool is an approximation based on exchange volume, not raw blockchain data. While exchange volume and on-chain volume are highly correlated during cycle extremes, they are not identical. This script is for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Tags
bitcoin, btc, onchain, vdd, cdd, valuation, cycle, top, bottom, Rob Maths