[3Commas] Turtle StrategyTurtle Strategy
🔷 What it does: This indicator implements a modernized version of the Turtle Trading Strategy, designed for trend-following and automated trading with webhook integration. It identifies breakout opportunities using Donchian channels, providing entry and exit signals.
Channel 1: Detects short-term breakouts using the highest highs and lowest lows over a set period (default 20).
Channel 2: Acts as a confirmation filter by applying an offset to the same period, reducing false signals.
Exit Channel: Functions as a dynamic stop-loss (wait for candle close), adjusting based on market structure (default 10 periods).
Additionally, traders can enable a fixed Take Profit level, ensuring a systematic approach to profit-taking.
🔷 Who is it for:
Trend Traders: Those looking to capture long-term market moves.
Bot Users: Traders seeking to automate entries and exits with bot integration.
Rule-Based Traders: Operators who prefer a structured, systematic trading approach.
🔷 How does it work: The strategy generates buy and sell signals using a dual-channel confirmation system.
Long Entry: A buy signal is generated when the close price crosses above the previous high of Channel 1 and is confirmed by Channel 2.
Short Entry: A sell signal occurs when the close price falls below the previous low of Channel 1, with confirmation from Channel 2.
Exit Management: The Exit Channel acts as a trailing stop, dynamically adjusting to price movements. To exit the trade, wait for a full bar close.
Optional Take Profit (%): Closes trades at a predefined %.
🔷 Why it’s unique:
Modern Adaptation: Updates the classic Turtle Trading Strategy, with the possibility of using a second channel with an offset to filter the signals.
Dynamic Risk Management: Utilizes a trailing Exit Channel to help protect gains as trades move favorably.
Bot Integration: Automates trade execution through direct JSON signal communication with your DCA Bots.
🔷 Considerations Before Using the Indicator:
Market & Timeframe: Best suited for trending markets; higher timeframes (e.g., H4, D1) are recommended to minimize noise.
Sideways Markets: In choppy conditions, breakouts may lead to false signals—consider using additional filters.
Backtesting & Demo Testing: It is crucial to thoroughly backtest the strategy and run it on a demo account before risking real capital.
Parameter Adjustments: Ensure that commissions, slippage, and position sizes are set accurately to reflect real trading conditions.
🔷 STRATEGY PROPERTIES
Symbol: BINANCE:ETHUSDT (Spot).
Timeframe: 4h.
Test Period: All historical data available.
Initial Capital: 10000 USDT.
Order Size per Trade: 1% of Capital, you can use a higher value e.g. 5%, be cautious that the Max Drawdown does not exceed 10%, as it would indicate a very risky trading approach.
Commission: Binance commission 0.1%, adjust according to the exchange being used, lower numbers will generate unrealistic results. By using low values e.g. 5%, it allows us to adapt over time and check the functioning of the strategy.
Slippage: 5 ticks, for pairs with low liquidity or very large orders, this number should be increased as the order may not be filled at the desired level.
Margin for Long and Short Positions: 100%.
Indicator Settings: Default Configuration.
Period Channel 1: 20.
Period Channel 2: 20.
Period Channel 2 Offset: 20.
Period Exit: 10.
Take Profit %: Disable.
Strategy: Long & Short.
🔷 STRATEGY RESULTS
⚠️Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
Net Profit: +516.87 USDT (+5.17%).
Max Drawdown: -100.28 USDT (-0.95%).
Total Closed Trades: 281.
Percent Profitable: 40.21%.
Profit Factor: 1.704.
Average Trade: +1.84 USDT (+1.80%).
Average # Bars in Trades: 29.
🔷 How to Use It:
🔸 Adjust Settings:
Select your asset and timeframe suited for trend trading.
Adjust the periods for Channel 1, Channel 2, and the Exit Channel to align with the asset’s historical behavior. You can visualize these channels by going to the Style tab and enabling them.
For example, if you set Channel 2 to 40 with an offset of 40, signals will take longer to appear but will aim for a more defined trend.
Experiment with different values, a possible exit configuration is using 20 as well. Compare the results and adjust accordingly.
Enable the Take Profit (%) option if needed.
🔸Results Review:
It is important to check the Max Drawdown. This value should ideally not exceed 10% of your capital. Consider adjusting the trade size to ensure this threshold is not surpassed.
Remember to include the correct values for commission and slippage according to the symbol and exchange where you are conducting the tests. Otherwise, the results will not be realistic.
If you are satisfied with the results, you may consider automating your trades. However, it is strongly recommended to use a small amount of capital or a demo account to test proper execution before committing real funds.
🔸Create alerts to trigger the DCA Bot:
Verify Messages: Ensure the message matches the one specified by the DCA Bot.
Multi-Pair Configuration: For multi-pair setups, enable the option to add the symbol in the correct format.
Signal Settings: Enable the option to receive long or short signals (Entry | TP | SL), copy and paste the messages for the DCA Bots configured.
Alert Setup:
When creating an alert, set the condition to the indicator and choose "alert() function call only".
Enter any desired Alert Name.
Open the Notifications tab, enable Webhook URL, and paste the Webhook URL.
For more details, refer to the section: "How to use TradingView Custom Signals".
Finalize Alerts: Click Create, you're done! Alerts will now be sent automatically in the correct format.
🔷 INDICATOR SETTINGS
Period Channel 1: Period of highs and lows to trigger signals
Period Channel 2: Period of highs and lows to filter signals
Offset: Move Channel 2 to the right x bars to try to filter out the favorable signals.
Period Exit: It is the period of the Donchian channel that is used as trailing for the exits.
Strategy: Order Type direction in which trades are executed.
Take Profit %: When activated, the entered value will be used as the Take Profit in percentage from the entry price level.
Use Custom Test Period: When enabled signals only works in the selected time window. If disabled it will use all historical data available on the chart.
Test Start and End: Once the Custom Test Period is enabled, here you select the start and end date that you want to analyze.
Check Messages: Check Messages: Enable this option to review the messages that will be sent to the bot.
Entry | TP | SL: Enable this options to send Buy Entry, Take Profit (TP), and Stop Loss (SL) signals.
Deal Entry and Deal Exit: Copy and paste the message for the deal start signal and close order at Market Price of the DCA Bot. This is the message that will be sent with the alert to the Bot, you must verify that it is the same as the bot so that it can process properly.
DCA Bot Multi-Pair: You must activate it if you want to use the signals in a DCA Bot Multi-pair in the text box you must enter (using the correct format) the symbol in which you are creating the alert, you can check the format of each symbol when you create the bot.
👨🏻💻💭 We hope this tool helps enhance your trading. Your feedback is invaluable, so feel free to share any suggestions for improvements or new features you'd like to see implemented.
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The information and publications within the 3Commas TradingView account are not meant to be and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by 3Commas and any of the parties acting on behalf of 3Commas, including its employees, contractors, ambassadors, etc.
Volatilite
Bollinger Bands by Abu ElyasBollinger Bands with Adjustable Stop Loss (Long-Only)
This strategy uses a Bollinger Band breakout approach to enter long positions and incorporates an adjustable stop loss for risk management.
Below is an overview of the logic, parameters, and usage instructions.
1. Bollinger Bands Logic
Basis (Middle Band): A moving average (type selectable by the user) of the chosen source, typically the closing price.
Upper Band: The basis plus a specified number of standard deviations (user-defined multiplier).
Lower Band: The basis minus the same number of standard deviations.
2. Entry Triggers
The strategy enters a long position when the close price rises above the upper Bollinger Band , suggesting a potential bullish breakout.
This logic is only applied within a user-specified date range (adjustable in the strategy’s inputs).
3. Exit Triggers
1. Bollinger Band Exit:
If the close price drops below the lower Bollinger Band , the strategy closes the position, indicating a loss of bullish momentum.
2. Stop Loss Exit:
A default 8% stop loss is set, which automatically exits the trade if the close falls 8% below the entry price.
This stop-loss percentage is adjustable from the strategy’s settings, allowing users to tailor risk based on their preferences.
3. Date Range:
If the current bar is outside of the specified start/end dates, the strategy will also exit any open positions.
4. Position Sizing & Other Settings
1- Position Size:
By default, the script uses 100% of account equity for each trade.
2- Commissions & Slippage:
Commission is set to 0%, and slippage is set to 3 ticks.
3- Timeframe Handling:
You can select a custom timeframe or leave it blank to use the chart’s timeframe.
5. Customization
1. Bollinger Bands Parameters:
Length of the moving average, type of moving average (SMA, EMA, etc.), and the standard deviation multiplier can be adjusted.
2. Stop Loss (%)
The default stop loss of 8% can be changed in the script’s input settings to any percentage you prefer.
3. Date Filter:
Modify the start/end dates to control the historical period over which the strategy executes trades.
6. Notes & Best Practices
1- No Short Trades:
This is a long‐only strategy. It will either be in a long position or flat (no open position).
2- Risk Management:
An 8% stop loss may or may not align with your personal risk tolerance. Always adjust according to market conditions and your own trading style.
3- Market Gaps & Volatility:
In highly volatile markets, slippage or gaps can cause the actual exit price to be worse than the intended stop-loss level.
4- Test Thoroughly:
Backtest on different timeframes and market conditions. No single strategy works in all scenarios.
7. Disclaimer
Educational Use Only: This script is for informational and illustrative purposes and should not be considered financial advice.
No Guarantee of Profit: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves substantial risk, and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment.
Consult a Professional: Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Use this script as a foundation and personalize it based on your trading style, tolerance for drawdowns, and market conditions.
Enhanced BarUpDn StrategyEnhanced BarUpDn Strategy
The Enhanced BarUpDn Strategy is a refined price action-based trading approach that identifies market trends and reversals using bar formations. It focuses on detecting bullish and bearish momentum by analyzing consecutive price bars and key support/resistance levels.
Key Features:
✅ Trend Confirmation – Uses a combination of bar patterns and indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI) to confirm momentum shifts.
✅ Entry Signals – A buy signal is triggered when an "Up Bar" (higher high, higher low) follows a bullish setup; a sell signal when a "Down Bar" (lower high, lower low) confirms bearish momentum.
✅ Enhanced Filters – Incorporates volume analysis and additional conditions to reduce false signals.
✅ Stop-Loss & Risk Management – Uses recent swing highs/lows for stop placement and dynamic trailing stops for maximizing gains.
IronBot v4IronBot v4 – Trading Strategy Overview
1. Quick Context
IronBot v4 is a trading strategy designed for users who want a simple yet effective approach to reading the markets. It uses a combination of Fibonacci retracement levels, custom logic triggers, and innovative modules (EMA validation, Iron Impulse Shield and Iron Auto Volume Detector) to identify potential entry and exit points, strengthening the strategy’s detection of sudden market volatility or shifts in trading volume.
2. Theoretical Details
Fibonacci Analysis
The script identifies recent market highs and lows, then calculates key Fibonacci levels (high- and low-based). These levels can help confirm potential reversals or trends.
EMA Option
When enabled, the exponential moving average (EMA) offers additional validation for trade entries. If the current price remains above a certain EMA threshold, long positions may be favored; conversely, if it stays below the EMA, short positions may be initiated.
IIS (Iron Impulse Shield)
IIS helps to filter out risky trades by measuring recent price shocks or surges. If an extreme movement is detected, the strategy may temporarily disable longs or shorts to avoid false signals.
IAVD (Iron Auto Volume Detector)
This functionality automatically detects the average market volume over a defined period (regardless of the market, since it relies on real data). When entering a position, it ensures that overall volume is high enough to confirm a genuinely active, robust market. By providing an additional filter, it can strengthen the decision-making process whenever the market’s participation level is in question.
Panel
IronBot v4 displays a real-time backtest panel that summarizes the selected configuration (including the current pair, analysis window, enabled filters), as well as showing net profit, applicable exchange fees, country taxes, and the final net balance. This gives traders an immediate overview of strategy performance and risk metrics.
What Pinescript Adds Visually
The script plots:
Fibonacci levels (highlighting potential reversal zones)
Trend lines indicating bullish (green) or bearish (red) lean
Optional EMA line
Optional Fibonacci forecast lines for anticipating future moves
Automatic labeling of entry, take-profit, and stop-loss levels, indicating the profit percentage of each trade.
3. Explanation of Inputs
The strategy exposes multiple inputs that can be toggled or configured by the user:
Analysis Window : Dictates how many bars to consider for high/low calculations and the fib retracement thresholds.
TRADES
Display TP/SL: For displaying Take profits and Stop loss.
Display Forecast: When enabled, this feature calculates and projects possible future Fibonacci retracements using historical data, helping traders anticipate potential upcoming trade setups.
Leverage: Only used for the Panel and not for trades. Lets you amplify your position size; higher leverage increases potential gains but also heightens risk. TradingView strategy is using properties for doing this.
Exchange Maker Fees & Exchange Taker Fees: Only used for the Panel and not for trades. Define the percentage cost applied by your exchange for maker and taker trades, respectively. These fees are accounted for in final profit calculations of the Panel.
Country Tax: Only used for the Panel and not for trades. Specifies a tax percentage to be deducted from net profits.
STOP LOSS and TAKE PROFITS
Stop-Loss & Take-Profit Parameters: Controls the percentage distances at which the strategy will exit positions. Additionally, you can configure up to four distinct take-profit levels (TP1 through TP4). Each level should be higher target than the previous one, and you can assign a specific percentage of the total position to close at each TP, ensuring the sum equals 100%. A break-even feature is also available when multiple TPs are used.
EMA
EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Option: When enabled, the strategy opens long trades only if the current price is above the specified EMA length, and opens short trades only if it is below that threshold.
PANELS
Show Panel: For displaying the backtest integrated panel.
IRON IMPULSE SHIELD (IIS)
IIS (Iron Impulse Shield) Option: When enabled, IIS continuously monitors recent price volatility depending on the analysis window set. If the market experiences an extreme surge or drop beyond a specified threshold, IIS temporarily blocks new long or short positions.
IRON AUTO VOLUME DETECTOR (IAVD)
IAVD (Iron Auto Volume Detector) Option: When enabled, it continuously measures the average market volume over a special period, irrespective of the specific trading pair. This ensures that IronBot v4 focuses on markets with robust participation, reducing the likelihood of entering trades during low-liquidity conditions.
By changing these values, IronBot v4 reacts differently to market structure and risk management requirements. Stop-loss and take-profit levels will adjust accordingly, while advanced filters (like EMA or IIS) influence when trades can open.
4. TradingView Strategy Properties
IronBot v4 uses the built-in TradingView “strategy” functionality. In particular:
Order Placement: The code calls strategy.entry() and strategy.close() for direct orders, ensuring signals are sent immediately (no limit orders are used). This helps connect with exchange signal bots for automated execution.
Initial Capital: The code uses initial capital defined in properties for calculating Net balance in the integrated panel.
On bar close: This strategy fill orders on bar close.
Pyramiding: This strategy can take only 1 successive trade in the same direction
Be careful to configure your leverage input depending on your strategy properties.
5. Visualization
5. Purpose & Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always confirm your own risk tolerance and consult a financial professional before placing live trades. Trading leveraged products can involve substantial risk of loss.
3 Red / 3 Green Strategy with Volatility CheckStrategy Name: 3 Red / 3 Green Strategy with Volatility Check by AlgoTradeKit
Overview
This long-only strategy is designed for daily bars on NASDAQ (or similar instruments) and combines simple price action with a volatility filter. It “tells it like it is” – enter when the market shows weakness, but only in sufficiently volatile conditions, and exit either on signs of a reversal or after a set number of days.
Entry Conditions
- Price Action :
Enter a long position when there are 3 consecutive red days (each day's close is below its open).
- Volatility Filter :
The entry is allowed only if the current ATR (Average True Range) calculated over the specified ATR Period (default 12) is greater than its 30-day simple moving average. This ensures the market has enough volatility to justify the trade.
Exit Conditions
- Reversal Signal :
Exit the long position when 3 consecutive green days occur (each day's close is above its open), signaling a potential reversal.
- Time Limit :
Regardless of market conditions, any open trade is closed if it reaches the Maximum Trade Duration (default 22 days). This helps limit exposure during stagnant or unfavorable market conditions.
- You can toggle the three-green-day exit if you want to isolate the time-based exit.
Input Parameters
- Maximum Trade Duration (days): Default is 22 days.
- ATR Period: Default is 12.
- Use 3 Green Days Exit: Toggle to enable or disable the three-green-day exit condition.
How It Works
1. Entry: The strategy monitors daily price action for 3 consecutive down days. When this occurs and if the market is volatile enough (current ATR > 30-day ATR average), it opens a long position.
2. Exit: The position is closed if the price action reverses with 3 consecutive up days or if the trade has been open for the maximum allowed duration - i.e. use it on daily chart.
Risk Management
- The built-in maximum trade duration prevents trades from lingering too long in a non-trending or consolidating market.
- The volatility filter helps ensure that trades are only taken when there is sufficient price movement, potentially increasing the odds of a meaningful move.
Disclaimer
This strategy is provided “as is” without any warranties. It is essential to backtest and validate the performance on your specific instrument and market conditions before deploying live capital. Trading involves significant risk, and you should adjust parameters to match your risk tolerance.
Test and tweak this strategy to see if it fits your trading style and market conditions. Happy trading!
Smart MA Crossover BacktesterSmart MA Crossover Backtester - Strategy Overview
Strategy Name: Smart MA Crossover Backtester
Published on: TradingView
Applicable Markets: Works well on crypto (tested profitably on ETH)
Strategy Concept
The Smart MA Crossover Backtester is an improved Moving Average (MA) crossover strategy that incorporates a trend filter and an ATR-based stop loss & take profit mechanism for better risk management. It aims to capture trends efficiently while reducing false signals by only trading in the direction of the long-term trend.
Core Components & Logic
Moving Averages (MA) for Entry Signals
Fast Moving Average (9-period SMA)
Slow Moving Average (21-period SMA)
A trade signal is generated when the fast MA crosses the slow MA.
Trend Filter (200-period SMA)
Only enters long positions if price is above the 200-period SMA (bullish trend).
Only enters short positions if price is below the 200-period SMA (bearish trend).
This helps in avoiding counter-trend trades, reducing whipsaws.
ATR-Based Stop Loss & Take Profit
Uses the Average True Range (ATR) with a multiplier of 2 to calculate stop loss.
Risk-Reward Ratio = 1:2 (Take profit is set at 2x ATR).
This ensures dynamic stop loss and take profit levels based on market volatility.
Trading Rules
✅ Long Entry (Buy Signal):
Fast MA (9) crosses above Slow MA (21)
Price is above the 200 MA (bullish trend filter active)
Stop Loss: Below entry price by 2× ATR
Take Profit: Above entry price by 4× ATR
✅ Short Entry (Sell Signal):
Fast MA (9) crosses below Slow MA (21)
Price is below the 200 MA (bearish trend filter active)
Stop Loss: Above entry price by 2× ATR
Take Profit: Below entry price by 4× ATR
Why This Strategy Works Well for Crypto (ETH)?
🔹 Crypto markets are highly volatile – ATR-based stop loss adapts dynamically to market conditions.
🔹 Long-term trend filter (200 MA) ensures trading in the dominant direction, reducing false signals.
🔹 Risk-reward ratio of 1:2 allows for profitable trades even with a lower win rate.
This strategy has been tested on Ethereum (ETH) and has shown profitable performance, making it a strong choice for crypto traders looking for trend-following setups with solid risk management. 🚀
Universal Strategy | QuantEdgeBIntroducing the Universal Strategy by QuantEdgeB
The Universal Strategy | QuantEdgeB is a dynamic, multi-indicator strategy designed to operate across various asset classes with precision and adaptability. This cutting-edge system utilizes four sophisticated methodologies, each integrating advanced trend-following, volatility filtering, and normalization techniques to provide robust signals. Its modular architecture and customizable features ensure suitability for diverse market conditions, empowering traders with data-driven decision-making tools. Its adaptability to different price behaviors and volatility levels makes it a robust and versatile tool, equipping traders with data-driven confidence in their market decisions.
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1. Core Methodologies and Features
1️⃣ DEMA ATR
Strength : Fast responsiveness to trend shifts.
The double exponential moving average is inherently aggressive, designed to reduce lag and quickly identify early signs of trend reversals or breakout opportunities. ATR bands add a volatility-sensitive layer, dynamically adjusting the breakout thresholds to match current market conditions, ensuring it remains responsive while filtering out noise
How It Fits :
This indicator is the first responder, providing early signals of potential trend shifts. While its aggressiveness can result in quick entries, it may occasionally overreact in noisy markets. This is where the smoother indicators step in to confirm signals.
2️⃣ Gaussian - VIDYA ATR (Variable Index Dynamic Average)
Strength : Smooth, adaptive trend identification.
Unlike DEMA, VIDYA adapts to market volatility through its standard deviation-based formula, making it smoother and less reactive to short-term fluctuations. ATR filtering ensures the indicator remains effective in volatile markets by dynamically adjusting its sensitivity.
How It Fits :
The smoother complement to DEMA ATR, VIDYA ATR filters out false signals from minor price movements. It provides confirmation for the trends identified by DEMA ATR, ensuring entries are based on robust, sustained price movements.
3️⃣ VIDYA Loop Trend Scoring
Strength : Historical trend scoring for consistent momentum detection.
This module evaluates the relative strength of trends by comparing the current VIDYA value to its historical values over a defined range. The loop mechanism provides a trend confidence score, quantifying the momentum behind price movements.
How It Fits :
VIDYA For-Loop adds a quantitative measure of trend strength, ensuring that trades are backed by sustained momentum. It balances the early signals from DEMA ATR and the smoothness of VIDYA ATR by providing a statistical check on the underlying trend.
4️⃣ Median SD with Normalization
Strength : Precision in breakout detection and market normalization.
The Median price serves as a robust baseline for detecting breakouts and reversals.
SD bands expand dynamically during periods of high volatility, making the indicator particularly effective for spotting strong trends or breakout opportunities. Normalization ensures the indicator adapts seamlessly across different assets and timeframes, providing consistent performance.
How It Fits :
The Median SD module provides final confirmation by focusing on price breakouts and market normalization. While the other indicators focus on momentum and trend strength, Median SD emphasizes precision, ensuring entries align with significant price movements rather than random fluctuations.
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2. How The Single Components Work Together
1️⃣ Balance of Speed and Smoothness :
The strategy blends quick responsiveness (DEMA ATR) with smooth and adaptive confirmation (VIDYA ATR & For-Loop), ensuring timely reactions without overreacting to market fluctuations. Median SD with Normalization refines breakout detection and stabilizes performance across assets using statistical anchors like price median and standard deviation.
Adaptability to Market Dynamics:
2️⃣ Adaptability to Market Dynamics :
The indicators complement each other seamlessly in trending markets, with the DEMA ATR and Median SD with Normalization quickly identifying shifts and confirming sustained momentum. In volatile or choppy markets, normalization and SD bands work together to filter out noise and reduce false signals, ensuring precise entries and exits. Meanwhile, the For-Loop scoring and Gaussian-Filtered VIDYA ATR focus on providing smoother, more reliable trend detection, offering consistent performance regardless of market conditions.
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3. Scoring and Signal Confirmation
The Universal Strategy consolidates signals from all four methodologies, calculating a Trend Probability Index (TPI). The four core indicators operate independently but contribute to a unified TPI, enabling highly adaptive behavior across asset classes.
- Each methodology generates a trend score: 1 for bullish trends, -1 for bearish trends.
- The TPI averages the scores, creating a unified signal.
- Long Position: Triggered when the TPI exceeds the long threshold (default: 0).
- Short Position: Triggered when the TPI falls below the short threshold (default: 0).
The strategy’s customizable settings allow traders to tailor its behavior to different market conditions—whether smoother trends in low-volatility assets or quick reaction to high-volatility breakouts. The long and short thresholds can be fine-tuned to match a trader’s risk tolerance and preferences.
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4. Use Cases:
The Universal Strategy | QuantEdgeB is designed to excel across a wide range of trading scenarios, thanks to its modular architecture and adaptability. Whether you're navigating trending, volatile, or range-bound markets, this strategy offers robust tools to enhance your decision-making. Below are the key use cases for its application:
1️⃣ Trend Trading
The strategy’s Gaussian-Filtered DEMA ATR and VIDYA ATR modules are perfect for identifying and riding sustained trends.
Ideal For: Traders looking to capture long-term momentum or position trades.
2️⃣ Breakout and Volatility-Based Strategies
With its Median SD with Normalization, the strategy excels in detecting volatility breakouts and significant price movements.
Ideal For: Traders aiming to capitalize on sudden market movements, especially in assets like cryptocurrencies and commodities.
3️⃣ Momentum and Strength Assessment
By generating a trend confidence score, the VIDYA For-Loop quantifies momentum strength—helping traders distinguish temporary spikes from sustainable trends.
Ideal For: Swing traders and those focusing on momentum-driven setups.
4️⃣ Adaptability Across Multiple Assets
The strategy’s robust framework ensures it performs consistently across different assets and timeframes.
Ideal For: Traders managing diverse portfolios or shifting between asset classes.
5️⃣ Backtesting and Optimization
Built-in backtesting and equity visualization tools make this strategy ideal for testing and refining parameters in real-world conditions.
• How It Helps: The strategy equity curve and metrics table offer a clear picture of performance, helping traders identify optimal settings for their chosen market and timeframe.
• Ideal For: Traders focused on rigorous testing and long-term optimization.
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5. Signal Composition Table:
This table presents a real-time breakdown of each indicator’s trend score (+1 bullish, -1 bearish) alongside the final aggregated signal. By visualizing the contribution of each methodology, traders gain greater transparency, confidence, and clarity in identifying long or short opportunities.
6. Customized Settings:
1️⃣ General Inputs
• Strategy Long Threshold (Lu): 0
• Strategy Short Threshold (Su): 0
2️⃣ Gaussian Filter
• Gaussian Length (len_FG): 4
• Gaussian Source (src_FG): close
• Gaussian Sigma (sigma_FG): 2.0
3️⃣ DEMA ATR
• DEMA Length (len_D): 30
• DEMA Source (src_D): close
• ATR Length (atr_D): 14
• ATR Multiplier (mult_D): 1.0
4️⃣ VIDYA ATR
• VIDYA Length (len_V1): 9
• SD Length (len_VHist1): 30
• ATR Length (atr_V): 14
• ATR Multiplier (mult_V): 1.7
5️⃣ VIDYA For-Loop
• VIDYA Length (len_V2): 2
• SD Length (len_VHist2): 5
• VIDYA Source (src_V2): close
• Start Loop (strat_loop): 1
• End Loop (end_loop): 60
• Long Threshold (long_t): 40
• Short Threshold (short_t): 8
6️⃣ Median SD
• Median Length (len_m): 24
• Normalized Median Length (len_msd): 50
• SD Length (SD_len): 32
• Long SD Weight (w1): 0.98
• Short SD Weight (w2): 1.02
• Long Normalized Smooth (smooth_long): 1
• Short Normalized Smooth (smooth_short): 1
Conclusion
The Universal Strategy | QuantEdgeB is a meticulously crafted, multi-dimensional trading system designed to thrive across diverse market conditions and asset classes. By combining Gaussian-Filtered DEMA ATR, VIDYA ATR, VIDYA For-Loop, and Median SD with Normalization, this strategy provides a seamless balance between speed, smoothness, and adaptability. Each component complements the others, ensuring traders benefit from early responsiveness, trend confirmation, momentum scoring, and breakout precision.
Its modular structure ensures versatility across trending, volatile, and consolidating markets. Whether applied to equities, forex, commodities, or crypto, it delivers data-driven precision while minimizing reliance on randomness, reinforcing confidence in decision-making.
With built-in backtesting tools, traders can rigorously evaluate performance under real-world conditions, while customization options allow fine-tuning for specific market dynamics and individual trading styles.
Why It Stands Out
The Universal Strategy | QuantEdgeB isn’t just a trading algorithm—it’s a comprehensive framework that empowers traders to make confident, informed decisions in the face of ever-changing market conditions. Its emphasis on precision, reliability, and transparency makes it a powerful tool for both professional and retail traders seeking consistent performance and enhanced risk management.
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🔹 Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy can guarantee success in financial markets.
🔹 Strategic Advice: Always backtest, optimize, and align parameters with your trading objectives and risk tolerance before live trading.
Stochastic-Dynamic Volatility Band ModelThe Stochastic-Dynamic Volatility Band Model is a quantitative trading approach that leverages statistical principles to model market volatility and generate buy and sell signals. The strategy is grounded in the concepts of volatility estimation and dynamic market regimes, where the core idea is to capture price fluctuations through stochastic models and trade around volatility bands.
Volatility Estimation and Band Construction
The volatility bands are constructed using a combination of historical price data and statistical measures, primarily the standard deviation (σ) of price returns, which quantifies the degree of variation in price movements over a specific period. This methodology is based on the classical works of Black-Scholes (1973), which laid the foundation for using volatility as a core component in financial models. Volatility is a crucial determinant of asset pricing and risk, and it plays a pivotal role in this strategy's design.
Entry and Exit Conditions
The entry conditions are based on the price’s relationship with the volatility bands. A long entry is triggered when the price crosses above the lower volatility band, indicating that the market may have been oversold or is experiencing a reversal to the upside. Conversely, a short entry is triggered when the price crosses below the upper volatility band, suggesting overbought conditions or a potential market downturn.
These entry signals are consistent with the mean reversion theory, which asserts that asset prices tend to revert to their long-term average after deviating from it. According to Poterba and Summers (1988), mean reversion occurs due to overreaction to news or temporary disturbances, leading to price corrections.
The exit condition is based on the number of bars that have elapsed since the entry signal. Specifically, positions are closed after a predefined number of bars, typically set to seven bars, reflecting a short-term trading horizon. This exit mechanism is in line with short-term momentum trading strategies discussed in literature, where traders capitalize on price movements within specific timeframes (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Market Adaptability
One of the key features of this strategy is its dynamic nature, as it adapts to the changing volatility environment. The volatility bands automatically adjust to market conditions, expanding in periods of high volatility and contracting when volatility decreases. This dynamic adjustment helps the strategy remain robust across different market regimes, as it is capable of identifying both trend-following and mean-reverting opportunities.
This dynamic adaptability is supported by the adaptive market hypothesis (Lo, 2004), which posits that market participants evolve their strategies in response to changing market conditions, akin to the adaptive nature of biological systems.
References:
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
Bollinger, J. (1980). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. Wiley.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Lo, A. W. (2004). The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Market Efficiency from an Evolutionary Perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(5), 15-29.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Volatility Arbitrage Spread Oscillator Model (VASOM)The Volatility Arbitrage Spread Oscillator Model (VASOM) is a systematic approach to capitalizing on price inefficiencies in the VIX futures term structure. By analyzing the differential between front-month and second-month VIX futures contracts, we employ a momentum-based oscillator (Relative Strength Index, RSI) to signal potential market reversion opportunities. Our research builds upon existing financial literature on volatility risk premia and contango/backwardation dynamics in the volatility markets (Zhang & Zhu, 2006; Alexander & Korovilas, 2012).
Volatility derivatives have become essential tools for managing risk and engaging in speculative trades (Whaley, 2009). The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility derived from S&P 500 option prices (CBOE, 2018). Term structures in VIX futures often exhibit contango or backwardation, depending on macroeconomic and market conditions (Alexander & Korovilas, 2012).
This strategy seeks to exploit the spread between the front-month and second-month VIX futures as a proxy for term structure dynamics. The spread’s momentum, quantified by the RSI, serves as a signal for entry and exit points, aligning with empirical findings on mean reversion in volatility markets (Zhang & Zhu, 2006).
• Entry Signal: When RSI_t falls below the user-defined threshold (e.g., 30), indicating a potential undervaluation in the spread.
• Exit Signal: When RSI_t exceeds a threshold (e.g., 70), suggesting mean reversion has occurred.
Empirical Justification
The strategy aligns with findings that suggest predictable patterns in volatility futures spreads (Alexander & Korovilas, 2012). Furthermore, the use of RSI leverages insights from momentum-based trading models, which have demonstrated efficacy in various asset classes, including commodities and derivatives (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
References
• Alexander, C., & Korovilas, D. (2012). The Hazards of Volatility Investing. Journal of Alternative Investments, 15(2), 92-104.
• CBOE. (2018). The VIX White Paper. Chicago Board Options Exchange.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
• Zhang, C., & Zhu, Y. (2006). Exploiting Predictability in Volatility Futures Spreads. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(6), 62-72.
• Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual EditionOverview:
The Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual Edition is designed to capture potential reversal moves at price extremes—often termed “bounce points”—by using a combination of technical indicators. The strategy integrates Bollinger Bands, MACD, and volume analysis, and it provides rich on‑chart visual cues to help traders understand its signals and conditions. Additionally, the strategy enforces a maximum of 5 trades per day and uses fixed risk management parameters. This publication is intended for educational purposes and offers a systematic, transparent approach that you can further adjust to fit your market or risk profile.
How It Works:
Bollinger Bands:
A 20‑period simple moving average (SMA) and a user‑defined standard deviation multiplier (default 2.0) are used to calculate the Bollinger Bands.
When the price reaches or crosses these bands (i.e. falls below the lower band or rises above the upper band), it suggests that the price is in an extreme, potentially oversold or overbought, state.
MACD Filter:
The MACD (calculated with standard lengths, e.g. 12, 26, 9) provides momentum information.
For a bullish (long) signal, the MACD line should be above its signal line; for a bearish (short) signal, the MACD line should be below.
Volume Confirmation:
The strategy uses a 20‑period volume moving average to determine if current volume is strong enough to validate a signal.
A signal is confirmed only if the current volume is at or above a specified multiple (by default, 1.0×) of this moving average, ensuring that the move is supported by increased market participation.
Visual Cues:
Bollinger Bands and Fill: The basis (SMA), upper, and lower Bollinger Bands are plotted, and the area between the upper and lower bands is filled with a semi‑transparent color.
Signal Markers: When a long or short signal is generated, corresponding markers (labels) appear on the chart.
Background Coloring: The chart’s background changes color (green for long signals and red for short signals) on the bars where signals occur.
Information Table: An on‑chart table displays key indicator values (MACD, signal line, volume, average volume) and the number of trades executed that day.
Entry Conditions:
Long Entry:
A long trade is triggered when the previous bar’s close is below the lower Bollinger Band and the current bar’s close crosses above it, combined with a bullish MACD condition and strong volume.
Short Entry:
A short trade is triggered when the previous bar’s close is above the upper Bollinger Band and the current bar’s close crosses below it, with a bearish MACD condition and high volume.
Risk Management:
Daily Trade Limit: The strategy restricts trading to no more than 5 trades per day.
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit:
For each position, a stop loss is set at a fixed percentage away from the entry price (typically 2%), and a take profit is set to target a 1:2 risk-reward ratio (typically 4% from the entry price).
Backtesting Setup:
Initial Capital: $10,000
Commission: 0.1% per trade
Slippage: 1 tick per bar
These realistic parameters help ensure that backtesting results reflect the conditions of an average trader.
Disclaimer:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This strategy is experimental and provided solely for educational purposes. It is essential to backtest extensively and paper trade before any live deployment. All risk management practices are advisory, and you should adjust parameters to suit your own trading style and risk tolerance.
Conclusion:
By combining Bollinger Bands, MACD, and volume analysis, the Bollinger Bounce Reversal Strategy – Visual Edition provides a clear, systematic method to identify potential reversal opportunities at price extremes. The added visual cues help traders quickly interpret signals and assess market conditions, while strict risk management and a daily trade cap help keep trading disciplined. Adjust and refine the settings as needed to better suit your specific market and risk profile.
Bollinger Bands Long Strategy
This strategy is designed for identifying and executing long trades based on Bollinger Bands and RSI. It aims to capitalize on potential oversold conditions and subsequent price recovery.
Key Features:
- Bollinger Bands (10,2): The strategy uses Bollinger Bands with a 10-period moving average and a multiplier of 2 to define price volatility.
- RSI Filter: A trade is only triggered when the RSI (14-period) is below 30, ensuring entry during oversold conditions.
- Entry Condition: A long trade is entered immediately when the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI is under 30.
- Exit Condition: The position is exited when the price reaches or crosses above the Bollinger Band basis (20-period moving average).
Best Used For:
- Identifying oversold conditions with a strong potential for a rebound.
- Markets or assets with clear oscillations and volatility e.g., BTC.
**Disclaimer:** This strategy is for educational purposes and should be used with caution. Backtesting and risk management are essential before live trading.
GOLD Volume-Based Entry StrategyShort Description:
This script identifies potential long entries by detecting two consecutive bars with above-average volume and bullish price action. When these conditions are met, a trade is entered, and an optional profit target is set based on user input. This strategy can help highlight momentum-driven breakouts or trend continuations triggered by a surge in buying volume.
How It Works
Volume Moving Average
A simple moving average of volume (vol_ma) is calculated over a user-defined period (default: 20 bars). This helps us distinguish when volume is above or below recent averages.
Consecutive Green Volume Bars
First bar: Must be bullish (close > open) and have volume above the volume MA.
Second bar: Must also be bullish, with volume above the volume MA and higher than the first bar’s volume.
When these two bars appear in sequence, we interpret it as strong buying pressure that could drive price higher.
Entry & Profit Target
Upon detecting these two consecutive bullish bars, the script places a long entry.
A profit target is set at current price plus a user-defined fixed amount (default: 5 USD).
You can adjust this target, or you can add a stop-loss in the script to manage risk further.
Visual Cues
Buy Signal Marker appears on the chart when the second bar confirms the signal.
Green Volume Columns highlight the bars that fulfill the criteria, providing a quick visual confirmation of high-volume bullish bars.
Works fine on 1M-2M-5M-15M-30M. Do not use it on higher TF. Due the lack of historical data on lower TF, the backtest result is limited.
ATR SuperTrend - IonJauregui-ActivTradesEste script en Pine Script utiliza el indicador SuperTrend basado en el ATR para identificar tendencias y generar señales de compra y venta.
¿Cómo funciona?
Detecta la volatilidad con el ATR para calcular niveles dinámicos de soporte y resistencia.
Dibuja la tendencia:
Línea verde: Tendencia alcista.
Línea roja: Tendencia bajista.
Genera señales de trading:
Compra cuando la tendencia pasa de bajista a alcista.
Venta cuando cambia de alcista a bajista.
Opera de forma automática:
Abre posiciones según las señales.
Establece stop loss y take profit para gestionar el riesgo.
Este indicador ayuda a seguir la tendencia y automatizar operaciones, filtrando el ruido del mercado.
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This Pine Script uses the SuperTrend indicator based on ATR to identify trends and generate buy and sell signals.
How it works:
Detects volatility with ATR to calculate dynamic support and resistance levels.
Plots the trend:
Green line: Bullish trend.
Red line: Bearish trend.
Generates trading signals:
Buy when the trend switches from bearish to bullish.
Sell when it switches from bullish to bearish.
Trades automatically:
Opens positions based on the signals.
Sets stop loss and take profit to manage risk.
This indicator helps follow the trend and automate trades, filtering out market noise.
High-Low Breakout Strategy with ATR traling Stop LossThis script is a TradingView Pine Script strategy that implements a High-Low Breakout Strategy with ATR Trailing Stop.created by SK WEALTH GURU, Here’s a breakdown of its key components:
Features and Functionality
Custom Timeframe and High-Low Detection
Allows users to select a custom timeframe (default: 30 minutes) to detect high and low levels.
Tracks the high and low within a user-specified period (e.g., first 30 minutes of the session).
Draws horizontal lines for high and low, persisting for a specified number of days.
Trade Entry Conditions
Long Entry: If the closing price crosses above the recorded high.
Short Entry: If the closing price crosses below the recorded low.
The user can choose to trade Long, Short, or Both.
ATR-Based Trailing Stop & Risk Management
Uses Average True Range (ATR) with a multiplier (default: 3.5) to determine a dynamic trailing stop-loss.
Trades reset daily, ensuring a fresh start each day.
Trade Execution and Partial Profit Taking
Stop-loss: Default at 1% of entry price.
Partial profit: Books 50% of the position at 3% profit.
Max 2 trades per day: If the first trade hits stop-loss, the strategy allows one re-entry.
Intraday Exit Condition
All positions close at 3:15 PM to ensure no overnight risk.
IU Range Trading StrategyIU Range Trading Strategy
The IU Range Trading Strategy is designed to identify range-bound markets and take trades based on defined price ranges. This strategy uses a combination of price ranges and ATR (Average True Range) to filter entry conditions and incorporates a trailing stop-loss mechanism for better trade management.
User Inputs:
- Range Length: Defines the number of bars to calculate the highest and lowest price range (default: 10).
- ATR Length: Sets the length of the ATR calculation (default: 14).
- ATR Stop-Loss Factor: Determines the multiplier for the ATR-based stop-loss (default: 2.00).
Entry Conditions:
1. A range is identified when the difference between the highest and lowest prices over the selected range is less than or equal to 1.75 times the ATR.
2. Once a valid range is formed:
- A long trade is triggered at the range high.
- A short trade is triggered at the range low.
Exit Conditions:
1. Trailing Stop-Loss:
- The stop-loss adjusts dynamically using ATR targets.
- The strategy locks in profits as the trade moves in your favor.
2. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are visually plotted for transparency and easier decision-making.
Features:
- Automated box creation to visualize the trading range.
- Supports one position at a time, canceling opposite-side entries.
- ATR-based trailing stop-loss for effective risk management.
- Clear visual representation of stop-loss and take-profit levels with colored bands.
This strategy works best in markets with defined ranges and can help traders identify breakout opportunities when the price exits the range.
Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM)The Dynamic Ticks Oscillator Model (DTOM) is a systematic trading approach grounded in momentum and volatility analysis, designed to exploit behavioral inefficiencies in the equity markets. It focuses on the NYSE Down Ticks, a metric reflecting the cumulative number of stocks trading at a lower price than their previous trade. As a proxy for market sentiment and selling pressure, this indicator is particularly useful in identifying shifts in investor behavior during periods of heightened uncertainty or volatility (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
Theoretical Basis
The DTOM builds on established principles of momentum and mean reversion in financial markets. Momentum strategies, which seek to capitalize on the persistence of price trends, have been shown to deliver significant returns in various asset classes (Carhart, 1997). However, these strategies are also susceptible to periods of drawdown due to sudden reversals. By incorporating volatility as a dynamic component, DTOM adapts to changing market conditions, addressing one of the primary challenges of traditional momentum models (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Sentiment and Volatility as Core Drivers
The NYSE Down Ticks serve as a proxy for short-term negative sentiment. Sudden increases in Down Ticks often signal panic-driven selling, creating potential opportunities for mean reversion. Behavioral finance studies suggest that investor overreaction to negative news can lead to temporary mispricings, which systematic strategies can exploit (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By incorporating a rate-of-change (ROC) oscillator into the model, DTOM tracks the momentum of Down Ticks over a specified lookback period, identifying periods of extreme sentiment.
In addition, the strategy dynamically adjusts entry and exit thresholds based on recent volatility. Research indicates that incorporating volatility into momentum strategies can enhance risk-adjusted returns by improving adaptability to market conditions (Moskowitz, Ooi, & Pedersen, 2012). DTOM uses standard deviations of the ROC as a measure of volatility, allowing thresholds to contract during calm markets and expand during turbulent ones. This approach helps mitigate false signals and aligns with findings that volatility scaling can improve strategy robustness (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
Practical Implications
The DTOM framework is particularly well-suited for systematic traders seeking to exploit behavioral inefficiencies while maintaining adaptability to varying market environments. By leveraging sentiment metrics such as the NYSE Down Ticks and combining them with a volatility-adjusted momentum oscillator, the strategy addresses key limitations of traditional trend-following models, such as their lagging nature and susceptibility to reversals in volatile conditions.
References
• Barroso, P., & Santa-Clara, P. (2015). Momentum Has Its Moments. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 111–120.
• Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.
• De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805.
• Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
• Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228–250.
Volatility-Adjusted Rate of Change (VARC) ModelThe Volatility-Adjusted Rate of Change (VARC) Model is a dynamic trading strategy designed to identify potential market opportunities by incorporating volatility and skewness data. The model relies on the CBOE Skew Index (CBOE:SKEW) and adjusts the traditional Rate of Change (ROC) indicator based on market volatility, offering a more refined approach to trading based on price momentum.
1. CBOE Skew Index (SKEW) and ROC Calculation
At its core, the VARC model uses the CBOE Skew Index as a measure of market sentiment. The SKEW index represents the perceived risk of extreme negative movements in the S&P 500, providing insight into the balance of risks in the market (CBOE, 2021). This sentiment-based index is often used by traders and analysts to gauge the likelihood of a market downturn.
The Rate of Change (ROC) is applied to the Skew Index, calculated over a specified lookback period (rocLength = 29). The ROC measures the percentage change in price from one period to another and is widely used to gauge the momentum of an asset (Chande & Kroll, 1994). In the VARC model, the ROC of the Skew Index is employed to assess shifts in market sentiment that may signal turning points or potential volatility.
2. Volatility Adjustment
Volatility plays a significant role in market behavior and risk management. The VARC model uses a volatility-adjusted threshold to dynamically adjust the sensitivity of the trading signals. This is achieved by calculating the standard deviation of the ROC over a defined volatility lookback period (volatilityLookback = 20) and applying a volatility multiplier (volatilityMultiplier = 1.5). These parameters define upper and lower thresholds for trade entry and exit.
The model adjusts the sensitivity of the ROC signals based on market volatility, ensuring that the strategy adapts to changing market conditions. When volatility is high, the thresholds are widened, allowing the model to filter out noise and avoid unnecessary trades. Conversely, during periods of low volatility, the thresholds tighten, enabling the model to capture smaller price movements.
3. Entry and Exit Conditions
The VARC model generates trading signals based on the behavior of the ROC relative to the dynamically adjusted volatility thresholds. A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses below the lower threshold, indicating that the market is becoming oversold or showing signs of excessive pessimism. The position is closed when the ROC exceeds the upper threshold, signaling a potential reversal or a return to normal market conditions. These entry and exit conditions are defined as follows:
• Long Condition: The ROC is below the lower threshold (roc < dynamicThresholdLow).
• Exit Condition: The ROC is above the upper threshold (roc > dynamicThresholdHigh).
This approach provides a systematic method for entering and exiting positions based on volatility-adjusted momentum, helping traders to capitalize on shifts in market sentiment.
4. Visualization and Signal Highlighting
The model includes several visual aids to help traders interpret the signals. The ROC, dynamic thresholds, and a zero line are plotted on the chart to provide a clear representation of market momentum and the current trading range. Furthermore, a background color is used to highlight periods when a position is open, visually reinforcing the model’s decisions.
5. Conclusion
The VARC model offers a robust framework for trading by combining momentum (through the ROC) with a volatility-adjusted approach that refines trade signals based on market conditions. The use of the CBOE Skew Index adds an additional layer of market sentiment analysis, providing context to the ROC values. This volatility-adaptive strategy offers traders a more nuanced way to navigate the markets, making it suitable for both short-term and longer-term trading horizons.
References:
• CBOE. (2021). CBOE Skew Index (SKEW). Chicago Board Options Exchange. Retrieved from www.cboe.com
• Chande, T., & Kroll, J. (1994). The New Technical Trader: Boost Your Profit by Plugging into the Latest Indicators. Wiley.
This model can be particularly useful in volatile markets, where traditional fixed thresholds may not perform as well. By adjusting the thresholds dynamically based on the underlying volatility, the VARC model offers a more flexible and responsive approach to market trading.
Liquidity Trading Algorithm (LTA)
The Liquidity Trading Algorithm is an algorithm designed to provide trade signals based on
liquidity conditions in the market. The underlying algorithm is based on the Liquidity
Dependent Price Movement (LDPM) metric and the Liquidity Dependent Price Stability (LDPS)
algorithm.
Together, LDPM and LDPS demonstrate statistically significant forecasting capabilities for price-
action on equities, cryptocurrencies, and futures. LTA takes these liquidity measurements and
translates them into actionable insights by way of entering or exiting a position based
on the future outlooks, as measured by the current liquidity status.
The benefit of LTA is that it can incorporate these powerful liquidity measurements into
actionable insights with several features designed to help you tailor LTA's behavior and
measurements to your desired vantage point. These customizable features come by the way of determining LTA's assessment style, and additional monitoring systems for avoiding bear and bull traps, along with various other quality of life features, discussed in more detail below.
First, a few quick facts:
- LTA is compatible on a wide array of instruments, including Equities, Futures, Cryptocurrencies, and Forex.
- LTA is compatible on most intervals in so long as the data can be calculated appropriately,
(be sure to do a backtest on timescales less than 1-minue to ensure the data can be computed).
- LTA only measures liquidity at the end of the interval of the chart chosen, and does not respond to conditions during the candle interval, unless specified (such as with `Stops`).
- LTA is interval-dependent, this means it will measure and behave differently on different
intervals as the underlying algorithms are dependent on the interval chosen.
- LTA can utilize fractional share sizing for cryptocurrencies.
- LTA can be restricted to either bullish or bearish indications.
- Additional Monitoring Systems are available for additional risk mitigation.
In short, LTA is a widely applicable, unique algorithm designed to translate liquidity measurements into liquidity insights.
Before getting more into the details, here is a quick list of the main features and settings
available for customization:
- Backtesting Start Date: Manual selection of the start date for the algorithm during backtesting.
- Assessment Style: adjust how LDPM and LDPS measure and respond to changes in liquidity.
- Impose Wait: force LTA to wait before entering or exiting a position to ensure conditions have remained conducive.
- Trade Direction Allowance: Restrict LTA to only long or only short, if desired.
- Position Sizing Method: determine how LTA calculates position sizing.
- Fractional Share Sizing: allow LTA to calculate fractional share sizes for cryptocurrencies
- Max Size Limit: Impose a maximum size on LTA's positions.
- Initial Capital: Indicate how much capital LTA should stat with.
- Portfolio Allotment: Indicate to LTA how much (in percentages) of the available balance should be considered when calculating position size.
- Enact Additional Monitoring Systems: Indicate if LTA should impose additional safety criteria when monitoring liquidity.
- Configure Take Profit, Stop-Loss, Trailing Stop Loss
- Display Information tables on the current position, overall strategy performance, along
with a text output showing LTA's processes.
- Real-time text output and updates on LTA's inner workings.
Let's get into some more of the details.
LTA's Assessment Style
LTA's assessment style determines how LTA collects and responds to changing data. In traditional terms, this is akin to (but not quite exactly the same as) the sensitivity versus specificity spectrum, whereby on one end (the sensitive end), an algorithm responds to changes in data in a reactive manner (which tends to lower its specificity, or how often it is correct in its indications), and on the other end, the opposite one, the algorithm foresakes quick changes for longevity of outlook.
While this is in part true, it is not a full view of the underlying mechanisms that changing the assessment style augments. A better analogy would be that the sensitive end of the spectrum (`Aggressive`) is in a state such that the algorithm wants to changing its outlooks, and as such, with changes in data, the algorithm has to be convinced as to why that is not a good idea to change outlooks, whereas the the more specific states (`Conservative`, `Diamond`) must be convinced that their view is no longer valid and that it needs to be changed.
This means the `Aggressive` and the `Diamond` settings fundamentally differ not just in their
data collection, but also in the data processing such that the `Aggressive` decision tree has to
be convinced that the data is the same (as its defualt is that it has changed),
and the `Diamond` decision tree has to be convinced that the data is not the same, and as such, the outlook need changed.
From there, the algorithm cooks through the data and determines to what the outlook should be changed to, given the current state of liquidity.
`Balanced` lies in the middle of this balance, attempting to balance being open to new ideas while not removing the wisdom of the past, as it were.
On a scale of most `sensitive` to most `specific`, it is as follows: `Aggressive`, `Balanced`,
`Conservative`, `Diamond`.
Functionally, these different modes can help in different liquidity environments, as certain
environments are more conducive to an eager approach (such as found near `Aggressive`) or are more conducive to a more conservative approach, where sudden changes in liquidity are known to be short-lived and unremarkable (such as many previously identified bull or bear traps).
For instance, on low interval views, it can often-times be beneficial to keep the algorithm towards the `Sensitive` end, since on the lower-timeframes, the crosswinds can change quite dramatically; whereas on the longer intervals, it may be useful to maintain a more `Specific` algorithm (such as found near `Diamond` mode) setting since longer intervals typically lend themselves to longer time-horizons, which themselves typically lend themselves to "weathering the storm", as it were.
LTA's Assessment Style is also supported by the Additional Monitoring Systems which works
to add sensitivity without sacrificing specificity by enacting a separate monitoring system, as described below.
Additional Monitoring Systems
The Additional Monitoring System (AMS) attempts to add more context to any changes in liquidity conditions as measured, such that LTA as a whole will have an expanded view into any rapidly changing liquidity conditions before these changes manifest in the traditional data streams. The ideal is that this allows for early exits or early entrances to positions "a head of time".
The traditional use of this system is to indicate when liquidity is suggestive of the end of a particular run (be it a bear run or a bull run), so an early exit can be initiated (and thus,
downside averted) even before the data officially showcase such changes. In such cases (when AMS becomes activated), the algorithm will signal to exit any open positions, and will restrict the opening of any new positions.
When a position is exited because of AMS, it is denoted as an `Early Exit` and if a position is prevented from being entered, the text output will display `AM prevented entry...` to indicate that conditions are not meeting AMS' additional standards.
The algorithm will wait to make any actions while `AMS` is `active` and will only enter into a new position once `AMS` has been `deactivated` and overall liquidity conditions are appropriate.
Functionally, the benefits of AMS translate to:
- Toggeling AMS on will typically see a net reduction in overall profitability, but
- AMS will typically (almost always) reduce max drawdown,
an increases in max runup, and increase return-over-maxdrawdown, and
- AMS can provide benefit for equities that experience a lot of "traps" by navigating early
entrance and early exits.
So in short, AMS is way of adding an additional level of liquidity monitoring that attempts to
exit positions if conditions look to be deteriorating, and to enter conditions if they look to be
improving. The cost of this additional monitoring, however, is a greater number of trades indicated, and a lower overall profitability.
Impose Wait
Note: `Impose Wait` will not force Take Profit, Stop Loss, or Trailing Stop Loss to
wait.
LTA can be indicated to `wait` before entering or exiting a position if desired. This means that if conditions change, whereas without a `wait` imposed, the algorithm would immediately indicate this change via a signal to alter the strategy's position, with a `wait` imposed, the algorithm will `wait` the indicated number of bars, and then re-check conditions before proceeding.
If, while waiting, conditions change to a state that is no longer compatible with the "order-in-
waiting", then the order-in-waiting is removed, and the counts reset (i.e.: conditions must remain favorable to the intended positional change throughout the wait period).
Since LTA works at the end-of-intervals, there is an inherently "built-in" wait of 1 bar when
switching directly from long to short (i.e.: if a full switch is indicated, then it is indicated as
conditions change -> exit new position -> wait until -> check conditions ->
enter new position as indicated). Thus, to impose a wait of `1 bar` would be to effectively have a total of two candles' ends prior to the entrance of the new position).
There are two main styles of `Impose Wait` that you can utilize:
- `Wait` : this mode will cause LTA to `wait` when both entering and exiting a position (in so long as it is not an exit signaled via a Take Profit, Stop Loss or Trailing Stop Loss).
- `Exit-Wait` : This mode will >not< cause LTA to `wait` if conditions require the closing of a position, but will force LTA to wait before entering into a position.
Position:
In addition to the availability to restrict LTA to either a long-only or short-only strategy, LTA
also comprises additional flexibility when deciding on how it should navigate the markets with
regards to sizing. Notably, this flexibility benefits several aspects of LTA's existence, namely the ability to determine the `Sizing Method`, or if `Fractional Share Sizing` should be employed, and more, as discussed below.
Position Sizing Method
There are two main ways LTA can determine the size of a position. Either via the `Fixed-Share` choice, or the `Fixed-Percentage` choice.
- `Fixed-Share` will use the amount indicated in the `Max Sizing Limit` field as the position size, always.
Note: With `Fixed-Share` sizing, LTA will >not< check if the balance is sufficient
prior to signaling an entrance.
- `Fixed-Percentage` will use the percentage amount indicated in the `Portfolio Allotment` field as the percentage of available funds to use when calculating the position size. Additionally, with the `Fixed-Percentage` choice, you can set the `Max Sizing Limit` if desired, which will ensure that no position will be entered greater than the amount indicated in the field.
Fractional Share Sizing
If the underlying instrument supports it (typically only cryptocurrencies), share sizing can be
fractionalized. If this is done, the resulting positin size is rounded to `4 digits`. This means any
position with a size less than `0.00005` will be rounded to `0.0000`
Note: Ensure that the underlying instrument supports fractional share sizing prior
to initiating.
Max Sizing Limit
As discussed above, the `Max Sizing Limit` will determine:
- The position size for every position, if `Sizing Method : Fixed-Share` is utilized, or
- The maximum allowed size, regardless of available capital, if `Sizing Method : Fixed-Percentage` is utilized.
Note: There is an internal maximum of 100,000 units.
Initial Capital
Note: There are 2 `Initial Capital` settings; one in LTA's settings and one in the
`Properties` tab. Ensure these two are the same when doing backtesting.
The initial capital field will be used to determine the starting balanace of the strategy, and
is used to calculate the internal data reporting (the data tables).
Portfolio Allotment
You can specify how much of the total available balance should be used when calculating the share size. The default is 100%.
Stops
Note: Stops over-ride `AMS` and `Impose Wait`, and are not restricted to only the
end-of-candle and will occur instantaneously upon their activation. Neither `AMS` nor `Impose Wait` can over-ride a signal from a `Take-Profit`, `Stop-Loss`, or a `Trailing-Stop Loss`.
LTA enhouses three stops that can be configured, a `Take-Profit`, a `Stop-Loss` and a `Trailing-Stop Loss`. The configurations can be set in the settings in percent terms. These exit signals will always over-ride AMS or any other restrictions on position exit.
Their configuration is rather standard; set the percentages you want the signal to be sent at and so it will be done.
Some quick notes on the `Trailing-Stop Loss`:
- The activation percentage must be reached (in profits) prior to the `Traililng-Stop Loss`
from activating the downside protection. For example, if the `Activation Percentage` is 10%, then unless the position reaches (at any point) a 10% profit, then it will not signal any exits on the downside, should it occur.
- The downside price-point is continuously updated and is calculated from the maximum profit reached in the given position and the loss percentage placed in the appropriate field.
Data Tables and Data Output
LTA provides real-time data output through a variety of mechanisms:
- `Position Table`
The `Position Table` displays information about the current position, including:
> Position Duration : how long the position has been open for.
> Indicates if the side is Long or Short, depending on if it is long or short.
> Entry Price: the price the position was entered at.
> Current Price (% Dif): the current price of the underlying and the %-difference between the entry price and the current price.
> Max Profit ($/%): the maximum profit reached in $ and % terms.
> Current PnL ($/%) : the current PnL for the open position.
- `Performance Table`
The `Performance Table` displays information regarding the overall performance of the algorithm since its `Start Date`. These data include:
> Initial Equity ($): The initial equity the algorithm started with.
> Current Equity ($): The current total equity of the account (including open positions)
> Net Profits ($|%) : The overall net profit in $ and % terms.
> Long / Short Trade Counts: The respective trade counts for the positions entered.
> Total Closed Trades: The running sum of the number of trades closed.
> Profitability: The calculation of the number of profitable trades over the total number of
trades.
> Avg. Profit / Trade: The calculation of the average profit per trade in both $ and % terms.
> Avg. Loss / Trade: The calculation of the average loss per trade in both $ and % terms.
> Max Run-Up: The maximum run-up the algorithm has seen in both $ and % terms.
> Max Drawdown: The maximum draw-down the algorithm has seen in both $ and % terms.
> Return-Over-Max-Drawdown: the ratio of the maximum drawdown against the current net profits.
- `Text Output`
LTA will output, if desired, signals to the text output field every time it analysis or performs and action. These messages can include information such as:
"
08:00:00 >> AM Protocol activated ... exiting position ...
08:00:00 >> Exit Order Created for qty: 2, profit: 380 (4.34%)
...
09:30:00 >> Checking conditions ...
09:30:00 >> AM protocol prevented entry ... waiting ...
"
This way, you can keep an eye out on what is happening "under the hood", as it were.
LTA will produce a message at the end of its assessment at the end of each candle interval, as well as when a position is exited due to a `Stop` or due to `AMS` being activated.
Additionally, the `Text Output` includes a initial message, but for space-constraints, this
can be toggled off with the `Blank Text Output` option within LTA's configurations.
For additional information, please refer to the Author's Instructions below.
Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi StrategySunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy
The Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy is a trend-following trading strategy that combines Bollinger Bands with Heikin-Ashi candles for precise market entries and exits. It aims to capitalize on price volatility while ensuring controlled risk through dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels based on a user-defined Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Key Features:
Trading Window:
The strategy operates within a user-defined time window (e.g., from 09:20 to 15:00) to align with market hours or other preferred trading sessions.
Trade Direction:
Users can select between Long Only, Short Only, or Long/Short trade directions, allowing flexibility depending on market conditions.
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are used to identify potential breakout or breakdown zones. The strategy enters trades when price breaks through the upper or lower Bollinger Band, indicating a possible trend continuation.
Heikin-Ashi Candles:
Heikin-Ashi candles help smooth price action and filter out market noise. The strategy uses these candles to confirm trend direction and improve entry accuracy.
Risk Management (Risk-to-Reward Ratio):
The strategy automatically adjusts the take-profit (TP) level and stop-loss (SL) based on the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR). This ensures that trades are risk-managed effectively.
Automated Alerts and Webhooks:
The strategy includes automated alerts for trade entries and exits. Users can set up JSON webhooks for external execution or trading automation.
Active Position Tracking:
The strategy tracks whether there is an active position (long or short) and only exits when price hits the pre-defined SL or TP levels.
Exit Conditions:
The strategy exits positions when either the take-profit (TP) or stop-loss (SL) levels are hit, ensuring risk management is adhered to.
Default Settings:
Trading Window:
09:20-15:00
This setting confines the strategy to the specified hours, ensuring trading only occurs during active market hours.
Strategy Direction:
Default: Long/Short
This allows for both long and short trades depending on market conditions. You can select "Long Only" or "Short Only" if you prefer to trade in one direction.
Bollinger Band Length (bbLength):
Default: 19
Length of the moving average used to calculate the Bollinger Bands.
Bollinger Band Multiplier (bbMultiplier):
Default: 2.0
Multiplier used to calculate the upper and lower bands. A higher multiplier increases the width of the bands, leading to fewer but more significant trades.
Take Profit Multiplier (tpMultiplier):
Default: 2.0
Multiplier used to determine the take-profit level based on the calculated stop-loss. This ensures that the profit target aligns with the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Default: 1.0
The ratio used to calculate the take-profit relative to the stop-loss. A higher RRR means larger profit targets.
Trade Automation (JSON Webhooks):
Allows for integration with external systems for automated execution:
Long Entry JSON: Customizable entry condition for long positions.
Long Exit JSON: Customizable exit condition for long positions.
Short Entry JSON: Customizable entry condition for short positions.
Short Exit JSON: Customizable exit condition for short positions.
Entry Logic:
Long Entry:
The strategy enters a long position when:
The Heikin-Ashi candle shows a bullish trend (green close > open).
The price is above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a breakout.
The previous candle also closed higher than it opened.
Short Entry:
The strategy enters a short position when:
The Heikin-Ashi candle shows a bearish trend (red close < open).
The price is below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a breakdown.
The previous candle also closed lower than it opened.
Exit Logic:
Take-Profit (TP):
The take-profit level is calculated as a multiple of the distance between the entry price and the stop-loss level, determined by the selected Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Stop-Loss (SL):
The stop-loss is placed at the opposite Bollinger Band level (lower for long positions, upper for short positions).
Exit Trigger:
The strategy exits a trade when either the take-profit or stop-loss level is hit.
Plotting and Visuals:
The Heikin-Ashi candles are displayed on the chart, with green candles for uptrends and red candles for downtrends.
Bollinger Bands (upper, lower, and basis) are plotted for visual reference.
Entry points for long and short trades are marked with green and red labels below and above bars, respectively.
Strategy Alerts:
Alerts are triggered when:
A long entry condition is met.
A short entry condition is met.
A trade exits (either via take-profit or stop-loss).
These alerts can be used to trigger notifications or webhook events for automated trading systems.
Notes:
The strategy is designed for use on intraday charts but can be applied to any timeframe.
It is highly customizable, allowing for tailored risk management and trading windows.
The Sunil BB Blast Heikin Ashi Strategy combines two powerful technical analysis tools (Bollinger Bands and Heikin-Ashi candles) with strong risk management, making it suitable for both beginners and experienced traders.
Feebacks are welcome from the users.
Optimized Engulfing StrategyOptimized Engulfing Strategy
The Optimized Engulfing Strategy is a trend-following system designed to capitalize on bullish and bearish engulfing patterns in the market. It uses a combination of price action, trend direction, and volatility-based risk management to execute high-probability trades.
Key Components:
Bullish Engulfing Pattern:
A bullish engulfing candle is identified when:
The current candle closes above its open (bullish).
The previous candle closes below its open (bearish).
The current candle's close is higher than the previous candle's open.
The current candle's open is lower than the previous candle's close.
This pattern signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Engulfing Pattern:
A bearish engulfing candle is identified when:
The current candle closes below its open (bearish).
The previous candle closes above its open (bullish).
The current candle's close is lower than the previous candle's open.
The current candle's open is higher than the previous candle's close.
This pattern signals potential bearish momentum.
Trend Confirmation:
Trades are only taken in the direction of the trend:
Buy: When the 50-period SMA (simple moving average) is above the 200-period SMA, indicating an uptrend.
Sell: When the 50-period SMA is below the 200-period SMA, indicating a downtrend.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Placed below the low of the engulfing candle (for buys) or above the high (for sells), with an additional buffer based on the ATR (Average True Range) multiplied by a user-defined factor (default: 1.5).
Take Profit: Calculated using a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (default: 1:2), ensuring a potential reward that is double the risk.
Session Filtering:
Trades can be limited to specific trading hours using a customizable session filter (default: 24 hours).
Trade Execution:
Separate logic is implemented for buy and sell trades, allowing independent toggling of long or short positions via user inputs.
Visualization:
Bullish and bearish engulfing candles are highlighted on the chart for clarity.
The ATR value is displayed in the top-right corner of the chart for reference.
How It Works:
Identify a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern.
Confirm the direction of the trend using the 50 SMA and 200 SMA.
Ensure the market is within the allowed session filter (e.g., London or New York sessions).
Enter a trade if all conditions are met:
Long trades for bullish engulfing patterns in an uptrend.
Short trades for bearish engulfing patterns in a downtrend.
Manage the trade using a stop loss and take profit based on ATR and the risk-reward ratio.
Systematic Risk Aggregation ModelThe “Systematic Risk Aggregation Model” is a quantitative trading strategy implemented in Pine Script™ designed to assess and visualize market risk by aggregating multiple financial risk factors. This model uses a multi-dimensional scoring approach to quantify systemic risk, incorporating volatility, drawdowns, put/call ratios, tail risk, volume spikes, and the Sharpe ratio. It derives a composite risk score, which is dynamically smoothed and plotted alongside adaptive Bollinger Bands to identify trading opportunities. The strategy’s theoretical framework aligns with modern portfolio theory and risk management literature (Markowitz, 1952; Taleb, 2007).
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Key Components of the Model
1. Volatility as a Risk Proxy
The model calculates the standard deviation of the closing price over a specified period (volatility_length) to quantify market uncertainty. Volatility is normalized to a score between 0 and 100, using its historical minimum and maximum values.
Reference: Volatility has long been regarded as a critical measure of financial risk and uncertainty in capital markets (Hull, 2008).
2. Drawdown Assessment
The drawdown metric captures the relative distance of the current price from the highest price over the specified period (drawdown_length). This is converted into a normalized score to reflect the magnitude of recent losses.
Reference: Drawdown is a key metric in risk management, often used to measure potential downside risk in portfolios (Maginn et al., 2007).
3. Put/Call Ratio as a Sentiment Indicator
The strategy integrates the put/call ratio, sourced from an external symbol, to assess market sentiment. High values often indicate bearish sentiment, while low values suggest bullish sentiment (Whaley, 2000). The score is normalized similarly to other metrics.
4. Tail Risk via Modified Z-Score
Tail risk is approximated using the modified Z-score, which measures the deviation of the closing price from its moving average relative to its standard deviation. This approach captures extreme price movements and potential “black swan” events.
Reference: Taleb (2007) discusses the importance of considering tail risks in financial systems.
5. Volume Spikes as a Proxy for Market Activity
A volume spike is defined as the ratio of current volume to its moving average. This ratio is normalized into a score, reflecting unusual trading activity, which may signal market turning points.
Reference: Volume analysis is a foundational tool in technical analysis and is often linked to price momentum (Murphy, 1999).
6. Sharpe Ratio for Risk-Adjusted Returns
The Sharpe ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of the asset, using the mean log return divided by its standard deviation over the same period. This ratio is transformed into a score, reflecting the attractiveness of returns relative to risk.
Reference: Sharpe (1966) introduced the Sharpe ratio as a standard measure of portfolio performance.
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Composite Risk Score
The composite risk score is calculated as a weighted average of the individual risk factors:
• Volatility: 30%
• Drawdown: 20%
• Put/Call Ratio: 20%
• Tail Risk (Z-Score): 15%
• Volume Spike: 10%
• Sharpe Ratio: 5%
This aggregation captures the multi-dimensional nature of systemic risk and provides a unified measure of market conditions.
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Dynamic Bands with Bollinger Bands
The composite risk score is smoothed using a moving average and bounded by Bollinger Bands (basis ± 2 standard deviations). These bands provide dynamic thresholds for identifying overbought and oversold market conditions:
• Upper Band: Signals overbought conditions, where risk is elevated.
• Lower Band: Indicates oversold conditions, where risk subsides.
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Trading Strategy
The strategy operates on the following rules:
1. Entry Condition: Enter a long position when the risk score crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating elevated market activity.
2. Exit Condition: Close the long position when the risk score drops below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a reduction in risk.
These conditions are consistent with momentum-based strategies and adaptive risk control.
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Conclusion
This script exemplifies a systematic approach to risk aggregation, leveraging multiple dimensions of financial risk to create a robust trading strategy. By incorporating well-established risk metrics and sentiment indicators, the model offers a comprehensive view of market dynamics. Its adaptive framework makes it versatile for various market conditions, aligning with contemporary advancements in quantitative finance.
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References
1. Hull, J. C. (2008). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. Pearson Education.
2. Maginn, J. L., Tuttle, D. L., McLeavey, D. W., & Pinto, J. E. (2007). Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process. Wiley.
3. Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91.
4. Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance.
5. Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Business, 39(1), 119–138.
6. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.
7. Whaley, R. E. (2000). The Investor Fear Gauge. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12–17.
Dynamic Volatility Differential Model (DVDM)The Dynamic Volatility Differential Model (DVDM) is a quantitative trading strategy designed to exploit the spread between implied volatility (IV) and historical (realized) volatility (HV). This strategy identifies trading opportunities by dynamically adjusting thresholds based on the standard deviation of the volatility spread. The DVDM is versatile and applicable across various markets, including equity indices, commodities, and derivatives such as the FDAX (DAX Futures).
Key Components of the DVDM:
1. Implied Volatility (IV):
The IV is derived from options markets and reflects the market’s expectation of future price volatility. For instance, the strategy uses volatility indices such as the VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq 100), or RVX (Russell 2000), depending on the target market. These indices serve as proxies for market sentiment and risk perception (Whaley, 2000).
2. Historical Volatility (HV):
The HV is computed from the log returns of the underlying asset’s price. It represents the actual volatility observed in the market over a defined lookback period, adjusted to annualized levels using a multiplier of \sqrt{252} for daily data (Hull, 2012).
3. Volatility Spread:
The difference between IV and HV forms the volatility spread, which is a measure of divergence between market expectations and actual market behavior.
4. Dynamic Thresholds:
Unlike static thresholds, the DVDM employs dynamic thresholds derived from the standard deviation of the volatility spread. The thresholds are scaled by a user-defined multiplier, ensuring adaptability to market conditions and volatility regimes (Christoffersen & Jacobs, 2004).
Trading Logic:
1. Long Entry:
A long position is initiated when the volatility spread exceeds the upper dynamic threshold, signaling that implied volatility is significantly higher than realized volatility. This condition suggests potential mean reversion, as markets may correct inflated risk premiums.
2. Short Entry:
A short position is initiated when the volatility spread falls below the lower dynamic threshold, indicating that implied volatility is significantly undervalued relative to realized volatility. This signals the possibility of increased market uncertainty.
3. Exit Conditions:
Positions are closed when the volatility spread crosses the zero line, signifying a normalization of the divergence.
Advantages of the DVDM:
1. Adaptability:
Dynamic thresholds allow the strategy to adjust to changing market conditions, making it suitable for both low-volatility and high-volatility environments.
2. Quantitative Precision:
The use of standard deviation-based thresholds enhances statistical reliability and reduces subjectivity in decision-making.
3. Market Versatility:
The strategy’s reliance on volatility metrics makes it universally applicable across asset classes and markets, ensuring robust performance.
Scientific Relevance:
The strategy builds on empirical research into the predictive power of implied volatility over realized volatility (Poon & Granger, 2003). By leveraging the divergence between these measures, the DVDM aligns with findings that IV often overestimates future volatility, creating opportunities for mean-reversion trades. Furthermore, the inclusion of dynamic thresholds aligns with risk management best practices by adapting to volatility clustering, a well-documented phenomenon in financial markets (Engle, 1982).
References:
1. Christoffersen, P., & Jacobs, K. (2004). The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(2), 375-397.
2. Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.
3. Hull, J. C. (2012). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. Pearson Education.
4. Poon, S. H., & Granger, C. W. J. (2003). Forecasting volatility in financial markets: A review. Journal of Economic Literature, 41(2), 478-539.
5. Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
This strategy leverages quantitative techniques and statistical rigor to provide a systematic approach to volatility trading, making it a valuable tool for professional traders and quantitative analysts.
Adaptive Momentum Reversion StrategyThe Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy: An Empirical Approach to Market Behavior
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy seeks to capitalize on market price dynamics by combining concepts from momentum and mean reversion theories. This hybrid approach leverages a Rate of Change (ROC) indicator along with Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions, triggering trades based on the crossing of specific thresholds. The strategy aims to detect momentum shifts and exploit price reversions to their mean.
Theoretical Framework
Momentum and Mean Reversion: Momentum trading assumes that assets with a recent history of strong performance will continue in that direction, while mean reversion suggests that assets tend to return to their historical average over time (Fama & French, 1988; Poterba & Summers, 1988). This strategy incorporates elements of both, looking for periods when momentum is either overextended (and likely to revert) or when the asset’s price is temporarily underpriced relative to its historical trend.
Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC is a straightforward momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price over a specified period (Wilder, 1978). The strategy calculates the ROC over a 2-period window, making it responsive to short-term price changes. By using ROC, the strategy aims to detect price acceleration and deceleration.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are used to identify volatility and potential price extremes, often signaling overbought or oversold conditions. The bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bounds that adjust dynamically with price volatility (Bollinger, 2002).
The strategy employs two sets of Bollinger Bands: one for short-term volatility (lower band) and another for longer-term trends (upper band), with different lengths and standard deviation multipliers.
Strategy Construction
Indicator Inputs:
ROC Period: The rate of change is computed over a 2-period window, which provides sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
Bollinger Bands:
Lower Band: Calculated with a 18-period length and a standard deviation of 1.7.
Upper Band: Calculated with a 21-period length and a standard deviation of 2.1.
Calculations:
ROC Calculation: The ROC is computed by comparing the current close price to the close price from rocPeriod days ago, expressing it as a percentage.
Bollinger Bands: The strategy calculates both upper and lower Bollinger Bands around the ROC, using a simple moving average as the central basis. The lower Bollinger Band is used as a reference for identifying potential long entry points when the ROC crosses above it, while the upper Bollinger Band serves as a reference for exits, when the ROC crosses below it.
Trading Conditions:
Long Entry: A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift from a period of low momentum to an increase in price movement.
Exit Condition: A position is closed when the ROC crosses under the upper Bollinger Band, or when the ROC drops below the lower band again, indicating a reversal or weakening of momentum.
Visual Indicators:
ROC Plot: The ROC is plotted as a line to visualize the momentum direction.
Bollinger Bands: The upper and lower bands, along with their basis (simple moving averages), are plotted to delineate the expected range for the ROC.
Background Color: To enhance decision-making, the strategy colors the background when extreme conditions are detected—green for oversold (ROC below the lower band) and red for overbought (ROC above the upper band), indicating potential reversal zones.
Strategy Performance Considerations
The use of Bollinger Bands in this strategy provides an adaptive framework that adjusts to changing market volatility. When volatility increases, the bands widen, allowing for larger price movements, while during quieter periods, the bands contract, reducing trade signals. This adaptiveness is critical in maintaining strategy effectiveness across different market conditions.
The strategy’s pyramiding setting is disabled (pyramiding=0), ensuring that only one position is taken at a time, which is a conservative risk management approach. Additionally, the strategy includes transaction costs and slippage parameters to account for real-world trading conditions.
Empirical Evidence and Relevance
The combination of momentum and mean reversion has been widely studied and shown to provide profitable opportunities under certain market conditions. Studies such as Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) confirm that momentum strategies tend to work well in trending markets, while mean reversion strategies have been effective during periods of high volatility or after sharp price movements (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By integrating both strategies into one system, the Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy may be able to capitalize on both trending and reverting market behavior.
Furthermore, research by Chan (1996) on momentum-based trading systems demonstrates that adaptive strategies, which adjust to changes in market volatility, often outperform static strategies, providing a compelling rationale for the use of Bollinger Bands in this context.
Conclusion
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy provides a robust framework for trading based on the dual concepts of momentum and mean reversion. By using ROC in combination with Bollinger Bands, the strategy is capable of identifying overbought and oversold conditions while adapting to changing market conditions. The use of adaptive indicators ensures that the strategy remains flexible and can perform across different market environments, potentially offering a competitive edge for traders who seek to balance risk and reward in their trading approaches.
References
Bollinger, J. (2002). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. McGraw-Hill Professional.
Chan, L. K. C. (1996). Momentum, Mean Reversion, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681-1713.
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
