Fisher Transform Trend Navigator [QuantAlgo]🟢 Overview
The Fisher Transform Trend Navigator applies a logarithmic transformation to normalize price data into a Gaussian distribution, then combines this with volatility-adaptive thresholds to create a trend detection system. This mathematical approach helps traders identify high-probability trend changes and reversal points while filtering market noise in the ever-changing volatility conditions.
🟢 How It Works
The indicator's foundation begins with price normalization, where recent price action is scaled to a bounded range between -1 and +1:
highestHigh = ta.highest(priceSource, fisherPeriod)
lowestLow = ta.lowest(priceSource, fisherPeriod)
value1 = highestHigh != lowestLow ? 2 * (priceSource - lowestLow) / (highestHigh - lowestLow) - 1 : 0
value1 := math.max(-0.999, math.min(0.999, value1))
This normalized value then passes through the Fisher Transform calculation, which applies a logarithmic function to convert the data into a Gaussian normal distribution that naturally amplifies price extremes and turning points:
fisherTransform = 0.5 * math.log((1 + value1) / (1 - value1))
smoothedFisher = ta.ema(fisherTransform, fisherSmoothing)
The smoothed Fisher signal is then integrated with an exponential moving average to create a hybrid trend line that balances statistical precision with price-following behavior:
baseTrend = ta.ema(close, basePeriod)
fisherAdjustment = smoothedFisher * fisherSensitivity * close
fisherTrend = baseTrend + fisherAdjustment
To filter out false signals and adapt to market conditions, the system calculates dynamic threshold bands using volatility measurements:
dynamicRange = ta.atr(volatilityPeriod)
threshold = dynamicRange * volatilityMultiplier
upperThreshold = fisherTrend + threshold
lowerThreshold = fisherTrend - threshold
When price momentum pushes through these thresholds, the trend line locks onto the new level and maintains direction until the opposite threshold is breached:
if upperThreshold < trendLine
trendLine := upperThreshold
if lowerThreshold > trendLine
trendLine := lowerThreshold
🟢 Signal Interpretation
Bullish Candles (Green): indicate normalized price distribution favoring bulls with sustained buying momentum = Long/Buy opportunities
Bearish Candles (Red): indicate normalized price distribution favoring bears with sustained selling pressure = Short/Sell opportunities
Upper Band Zone: Area above middle level indicating statistically elevated trend strength with potential overbought conditions approaching mean reversion zones
Lower Band Zone: Area below middle level indicating statistically depressed trend strength with potential oversold conditions approaching mean reversion zones
Built-in Alert System: Automated notifications trigger when bullish or bearish states change, allowing you to act on significant developments without constantly monitoring the charts
Candle Coloring: Optional feature applies trend colors to price bars for visual consistency and clarity
Configuration Presets: Three parameter sets available - Default (balanced settings), Scalping (faster response with higher sensitivity), and Swing Trading (slower response with enhanced smoothing)
Color Customization: Four color schemes including Classic, Aqua, Cosmic, and Custom options for personalized chart aesthetics
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RSI Trendlines and Divergences█OVERVIEW
The "RSI Trendlines and Divergences" indicator is an advanced technical analysis tool that leverages the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to draw trendlines and detect divergences. Designed for traders seeking precise market signals, the indicator identifies key pivot points on the RSI chart, draws trendlines between pivots, and detects bullish and bearish divergences. It offers flexible settings, background coloring for breakout signals, and divergence labels, supported by alerts for key events. The indicator is universal and works across all markets (stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies) and timeframes.
█CONCEPTS
The indicator was developed to provide an alternative signal source for the RSI oscillator. Trendline breakouts and bounces off trendlines offer a broader perspective on potential price behavior. Combining these with traditional RSI signal interpretation can serve as a foundation for creating various trading strategies.
█FEATURES
- RSI and Pivot Calculation: Calculates RSI based on the selected source price (default: close) with a customizable period (default: 14). Identifies pivot points on RSI and price for trendlines and divergences.
- RSI Trendlines: Draws trendlines connecting RSI pivots (upper for downtrends, lower for uptrends) with optional extension (default: 30 bars). The trendline appears and generates a signal only after the first RSI crossover. Lines are colored (red for upper, green for lower).
- Trendline Fill: Widens the trendline with a tolerance margin expressed in RSI points, reducing signal noise and visually highlighting trend zones. Breaking this zone is a condition for generating signals, minimizing false signals. The tolerance margin can be increased or decreased.
- Divergence Detection: Identifies bullish and bearish divergences based on RSI and price pivots, displaying labels (“Bull” for bullish, “Bear” for bearish) with adjustable transparency. Divergence labels appear with a delay equal to the specified pivot length (default: 5). Higher values yield stronger signals but with greater delay.
- Breakout Signals: Generates signals when RSI crosses the trendline (bullish for upper lines, bearish for lower lines), with background coloring for signal confirmation.
- Alerts: Built-in alerts for:
Detection of bullish and bearish divergences.
Upper trendline crossover (bullish signal).
Lower trendline crossover (bearish signal).
- Customization: Allows adjustment of RSI length, pivot settings, line colors, fills, labels, and transparency of signals and background.
█HOW TO USE
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart via the Pine Editor or Indicators menu.
Configuring Settings.
RSI Settings
- RSI Length: Period for RSI calculation (default: 14).
- SMA Length: Period for RSI moving average (default: 9).
- Source: Source price for RSI (default: close).
Pivot Settings for Trend
- Left Bars for Pivot: Number of bars back for detecting pivots (default: 10).
- Right Bars for Pivot: Number of bars forward for confirming pivots (default: 10).
- Extension after Second Pivot: Number of bars to extend the trendline (default: 30, 0 = none). Extension increases the number of signals, while shortening reduces them.
- Tolerance: Deviation in RSI points to widen the breakout margin, reducing signal noise (default: 3.0).
Divergence Settings
- Enable Divergence Detection: Enables/disables divergence detection (default: enabled).
- Pivot Length for Divergence: Pivot period for divergences (default: 5).
Style Settings
- Upper Trendline Color: Color for downtrend lines (default: red).
- Upper Fill Color: Fill color for upper lines (default: red, transparency 70).
- Lower Trendline Color: Color for uptrend lines (default: green).
- Lower Fill Color: Fill color for lower lines (default: green, transparency 70).
- SMA Color: Color for RSI moving average (default: yellow).
- Bullish Divergence Color: Color for bullish labels (default: green).
- Bearish Divergence Color: Color for bearish labels (default: red).
- Text Color: Color for label text (default: white).
- Divergence Label Transparency: Transparency of labels (0-100, default: 40).
- Signal Background Transparency: Transparency of breakout signal background (0-100, default: 80).
Interpreting Signals
- Trendlines: Upper lines (red) indicate RSI downtrends, lower lines (green) indicate uptrends. The trendline appears and generates a signal only after the first RSI crossover. Trendline breakouts suggest potential trend reversals.
- Divergences: “Bull” labels indicate bullish divergence (potential rise), “Bear” labels indicate bearish divergence (potential decline), with a delay based on pivot length (default: 5). Divergences serve as confirmation or warning of trend reversal, not as standalone signals.
- Signal Background: Green background signals bullish breakouts, red background signals bearish breakouts.
- RSI Levels: Horizontal lines at 70 (overbought), 50 (midline), and 30 (oversold) help assess market zones.
- Alerts: Set up alerts in TradingView for divergences or trendline breakouts.
Combining with Other Tools: Use with support/resistance levels, Fibonacci levels, or other indicators for signal confirmation.
█APPLICATIONS
The "RSI Trendlines and Divergence" indicator is designed to identify trends and potential reversal points, supporting both trend-following and reversal strategies:
- Trend Confirmation: Trendlines indicate the RSI trend direction, with breakouts signaling potential reversals. The indicator is functional in traditional RSI usage, allowing classic RSI interpretation (e.g., returning from overbought/oversold zones). Combining trendline breakouts with RSI signal levels, such as a return from overbought or oversold zones paired with a trendline breakout, strengthens the signal.
- Divergence Detection: Divergences serve as confirmation or warning of trend reversal, not as standalone signals.
█NOTES
- Adjust settings (e.g., RSI length, pivots, tolerance) to suit your trading style and timeframe.
- Combine with other technical analysis tools to enhance signal accuracy.
Extreme Pressure Zones Indicator (EPZ) [BullByte]Extreme Pressure Zones Indicator(EPZ)
The Extreme Pressure Zones (EPZ) Indicator is a proprietary market analysis tool designed to highlight potential overbought and oversold "pressure zones" in any financial chart. It does this by combining several unique measurements of price action and volume into a single, bounded oscillator (0–100). Unlike simple momentum or volatility indicators, EPZ captures multiple facets of market pressure: price rejection, trend momentum, supply/demand imbalance, and institutional (smart money) flow. This is not a random mashup of generic indicators; each component was chosen and weighted to reveal extreme market conditions that often precede reversals or strong continuations.
What it is?
EPZ estimates buying/selling pressure and highlights potential extreme zones with a single, bounded 0–100 oscillator built from four normalized components. Context-aware weighting adapts to volatility, trendiness, and relative volume. Visual tools include adaptive thresholds, confirmed-on-close extremes, divergence, an MTF dashboard, and optional gradient candles.
Purpose and originality (not a mashup)
Purpose: Identify when pressure is building or reaching potential extremes while filtering noise across regimes and symbols.
Originality: EPZ integrates price rejection, momentum cascade, pressure distribution, and smart money flow into one bounded scale with context-aware weighting. It is not a cosmetic mashup of public indicators.
Why a trader might use EPZ
EPZ provides a multi-dimensional gauge of market extremes that standalone indicators may miss. Traders might use it to:
Spot Reversals: When EPZ enters an "Extreme High" zone (high red), it implies selling pressure might soon dominate. This can hint at a topside reversal or at least a pause in rallies. Conversely, "Extreme Low" (green) can highlight bottom-fish opportunities. The indicator's divergence module (optional) also finds hidden bullish/bearish divergences between price and EPZ, a clue that price momentum is weakening.
Measure Momentum Shifts: Because EPZ blends momentum and volume, it reacts faster than many single metrics. A rising MPO indicates building bullish pressure, while a falling MPO shows increasing bearish pressure. Traders can use this like a refined RSI: above 50 means bullish bias, below 50 means bearish bias, but with context provided by the thresholds.
Filter Trades: In trend-following systems, one could require EPZ to be in the bullish (green) zone before taking longs, or avoid new trades when EPZ is extreme. In mean-reversion systems, one might specifically look to fade extremes flagged by EPZ.
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: The dashboard can fetch a higher timeframe EPZ value. For example, you might trade a 15-minute chart only when the 60-minute EPZ agrees on pressure direction.
Components and how they're combined
Rejection (PRV) – Captures price rejection based on candle wicks and volume (see Price Rejection Volume).
Momentum Cascade (MCD) – Blends multiple momentum periods (3,5,8,13) into a normalized momentum score.
Pressure Distribution (PDI) – Measures net buy/sell pressure by comparing volume on up vs down candles.
Smart Money Flow (SMF) – An adaptation of money flow index that emphasizes unusual volume spikes.
Each of these components produces a 0–100 value (higher means more bullish pressure). They are then weighted and averaged into the final Market Pressure Oscillator (MPO), which is smoothed and scaled. By combining these four views, EPZ stands out as a comprehensive pressure gauge – the whole is greater than the sum of parts
Context-aware weighting:
Higher volatility → more PRV weight
Trendiness up (RSI of ATR > 25) → more MCD weight
Relative volume > 1.2x → more PDI weight
SMF holds a stable weight
The weighted average is smoothed and scaled into MPO ∈ with 50 as the neutral midline.
What makes EPZ stand out
Four orthogonal inputs (price action, momentum, pressure, flow) unified in a single bounded oscillator with consistent thresholds.
Adaptive thresholds (optional) plus robust extreme detection that also triggers on crossovers, so static thresholds work reliably too.
Confirm Extremes on Bar Close (default ON): dots/arrows/labels/alerts print on closed bars to avoid repaint confusion.
Clean dashboard, divergence tools, pre-alerts, and optional on-price gradients. Visual 3D layering uses offsets for depth only,no lookahead.
Recommended markets and timeframes
Best: liquid symbols (index futures, large-cap equities, major FX, BTC/ETH).
Timeframes: 5–15m (more signals; consider higher thresholds), 1H–4H (balanced), 1D (clear regimes).
Use caution on illiquid or very low TFs where wick/volume geometry is erratic.
Logic and thresholds
MPO ∈ ; 50 = neutral. Above 50 = bullish pressure; below 50 = bearish.
Static thresholds (defaults): thrHigh = 70, thrLow = 30; warning bands 5 pts inside extremes (65/35).
Adaptive thresholds (optional):
thrHigh = min(BaseHigh + 5, mean(MPO,100) + stdev(MPO,100) × ExtremeSensitivity)
thrLow = max(BaseLow − 5, mean(MPO,100) − stdev(MPO,100) × ExtremeSensitivity)
Extreme detection
High: MPO ≥ thrHigh with peak/slope or crossover filter.
Low: MPO ≤ thrLow with trough/slope or crossover filter.
Cooldown: 5 bars (default). A new extreme will not print until the cooldown elapses, even if MPO re-enters the zone.
Confirmation
"Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" (default ON) gates extreme markers, pre-alerts, and alerts to closed bars (non-repainting).
Divergences
Pivot-based bullish/bearish divergence; tags appear only after left/right bars elapse (lookbackPivot).
MTF
HTF MPO retrieved with lookahead_off; values can update intrabar and finalize at HTF close. This is disclosed and expected.
Inputs and defaults (key ones)
Core: Sensitivity=1.0; Analysis Period=14; Smoothing=3; Adaptive Thresholds=OFF.
Extremes: Base High=70, Base Low=30; Extreme Sensitivity=1.5; Confirm Extremes on Bar Close=ON; Cooldown=5; Dot size Small/Tiny.
Visuals: Heatmap ON; 3D depth optional; Strength bars ON; Pre-alerts OFF; Divergences ON with tags ON; Gradient candles OFF; Glow ON.
Dashboard: ON; Position=Top Right; Size=Normal; MTF ON; HTF=60m; compact overlay table on price chart.
Advanced caps: Max Oscillator Labels=80; Max Extreme Guide Lines=80; Divergence objects=60.
Dashboard: what each element means
Header: EPZ ANALYSIS.
Large readout: Current MPO; color reflects state (extreme, approaching, or neutral).
Status badge: "Extreme High/Low", "Approaching High/Low", "Bullish/Neutral/Bearish".
HTF cell (when MTF ON): Higher-timeframe MPO, color-coded vs extremes; updates intrabar, settles at HTF close.
Predicted (when MTF OFF): Simple MPO extrapolation using momentum/acceleration—illustrative only.
Thresholds: Current thrHigh/thrLow (static or adaptive).
Components: ASCII bars + values for PRV, MCD, PDI, SMF.
Market metrics: Volume Ratio (x) and ATR% of price.
Strength: Bar indicator of |MPO − 50| × 2.
Confidence: Heuristic gauge (100 in extremes, 70 in warnings, 50 with divergence, else |MPO − 50|). Convenience only, not probability.
How to read the oscillator
MPO Value (0–100): A reading of 50 is neutral. Values above ~55 are increasingly bullish (green), while below ~45 are increasingly bearish (red). Think of these as "market pressure".
Extreme Zones: When MPO climbs into the bright orange/red area (above the base-high line, default 70), the chart will display a dot and downward arrow marking that extreme. Traders often treat this as a sign to tighten stops or look for shorts. Similarly, a bright green dot/up-arrow appears when MPO falls below the base-low (30), hinting at a bullish setup.
Heatmap/Candles: If "Pressure Heatmap" is enabled, the background of the oscillator pane will fade green or red depending on MPO. Users can optionally color the price candles by MPO value (gradient candles) to see these extremes on the main chart.
Prediction Zone(optional): A dashed projection line extends the MPO forward by a small number of bars (prediction_bars) using current MPO momentum and acceleration. This is a heuristic extrapolation best used for short horizons (1–5 bars) to anticipate whether MPO may touch a warning or extreme zone. It is provisional and becomes less reliable with longer projection lengths — always confirm predicted moves with bar-close MPO and HTF context before acting.
Divergences: When price makes a higher high but EPZ makes a lower high (bearish divergence), the indicator can draw dotted lines and a "Bear Div" tag. The opposite (lower low price, higher EPZ) gives "Bull Div". These signals confirm waning momentum at extremes.
Zones: Warning bands near extremes; Extreme zones beyond thresholds.
Crossovers: MPO rising through 35 suggests easing downside pressure; falling through 65 suggests waning upside pressure.
Dots/arrows: Extreme markers appear on closed bars when confirmation is ON and respect the 5-bar cooldown.
Pre-alert dots (optional): Proximity cues in warning zones; also gated to bar close when confirmation is ON.
Histogram: Distance from neutral (50); highlights strengthening or weakening pressure.
Divergence tags: "Bear Div" = higher price high with lower MPO high; "Bull Div" = lower price low with higher MPO low.
Pressure Heatmap : Layered gradient background that visually highlights pressure strength across the MPO scale; adjustable intensity and optional zone overlays (warning / extreme) for quick visual scanning.
A typical reading: If the oscillator is rising from neutral towards the high zone (green→orange→red), the chart may see strong buying culminating in a stall. If it then turns down from the extreme, that peak EPZ dot signals sell pressure.
Alerts
EPZ: Extreme Context — fires on confirmed extremes (respects cooldown).
EPZ: Approaching Threshold — fires in warning zones if no extreme.
EPZ: Divergence — fires on confirmed pivot divergences.
Tip: Set alerts to "Once per bar close" to align with confirmation and avoid intrabar repaint.
Practical usage ideas
Trend continuation: In positive regimes (MPO > 50 and rising), pullbacks holding above 50 often precede continuation; mirror for bearish regimes.
Exhaustion caution: E High/E Low can mark exhaustion risk; many wait for MPO rollover or divergence to time fades or partial exits.
Adaptive thresholds: Useful on assets with shifting volatility regimes to maintain meaningful "extreme" levels.
MTF alignment: Prefer setups that agree with the HTF MPO to reduce countertrend noise.
Examples
Screenshots captured in TradingView Replay to freeze the bar at close so values don't fluctuate intrabar. These examples use default settings and are reproducible on the same bars; they are for illustration, not cherry-picking or performance claims.
Example 1 — BTCUSDT, 1h — E Low
MPO closed at 26.6 (below the 30 extreme), printing a confirmed E Low. HTF MPO is 26.6, so higher-timeframe pressure remains bearish. Components are subdued (Momentum/Pressure/Smart$ ≈ 29–37), with Vol Ratio ≈ 1.19x and ATR% ≈ 0.37%. A prior Bear Div flagged weakening impulse into the drop. With cooldown set to 5 bars, new extremes are rate-limited. Many traders wait for MPO to curl up and reclaim 35 or for a fresh Bull Div before considering countertrend ideas; if MPO cannot reclaim 35 and HTF stays weak, treat bounces cautiously. Educational illustration only.
Example 2 — ETHUSD, 30m — E High
A strong impulse pushed MPO into the extreme zone (≥ 70), printing a confirmed E High on close. Shortly after, MPO cooled to ~61.5 while a Bear Div appeared, showing momentum lag as price pushed a higher high. Volume and volatility were elevated (≈ 1.79x / 1.25%). With a 5-bar cooldown, additional extremes won't print immediately. Some treat E High as exhaustion risk—either waiting for MPO rollover under 65/50 to fade, or for a pullback that holds above 50 to re-join the trend if higher-timeframe pressure remains constructive. Educational illustration only.
Known limitations and caveats
The MPO line itself can change intrabar; extreme markers/alerts do not repaint when "Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" is ON.
HTF values settle at the close of the HTF bar.
Illiquid symbols or very low TFs can be noisy; consider higher thresholds or longer smoothing.
Prediction line (when enabled) is a visual extrapolation only.
For coders
Pine v6. MTF via request.security with lookahead_off.
Extremes include crossover triggers so static thresholds also yield E High/E Low.
Extreme markers and pre-alerts are gated by barstate.isconfirmed when confirmation is ON.
Arrays prune oldest objects to respect resource limits; defaults (80/80/60) are conservative for low TFs.
3D layering uses negative offsets purely for drawing depth (no lookahead).
Screenshot methodology:
To make labels legible and to demonstrate non-repainting behavior, the examples were captured in TradingView Replay with "Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" enabled. Replay is used only to freeze the bar at close so plots don't change intrabar. The examples use default settings, include both Extreme Low and Extreme High cases, and can be reproduced by scrolling to the same bars outside Replay. This is an educational illustration, not a performance claim.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets involve risk; past behavior does not guarantee future results. You are responsible for your own testing, risk management, and decisions.
MK_OSFT-Momentum Confluence DetectorMOMENTUM CONFLUENCE DETECTOR - Trading Indicator Overview
What This Indicator Does
The Momentum Confluence Detector is a comprehensive Pine Script indicator designed to identify high-probability trading opportunities by detecting momentum bars that align with multiple confluence factors. It combines traditional technical analysis with advanced Smart Money Concepts to filter out noise and highlight the most significant price movements.
CORE FUNCTIONALITY
📊 Momentum Bar Detection Identifies unusual volume and bar size expansion using customizable multipliers
Detects bullish, bearish, and neutral momentum bars based on OHLC relationships
Uses moving averages to establish baseline volume and bar size thresholds
🔄 Multi-Filter Confluence System
The indicator employs up to 5 different filter types to validate momentum signals:
Level Concept Filter - Choose between:
- Support/Resistance Levels : Traditional pivot-based S/R zones with touch counting and break tracking
- Smart Money Concepts : Institutional order flow analysis including Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and market structure breaks
Trend Filter : EMA/SMA-based trend direction confirmation with alignment requirements
Breakout Filter : Detects price breakouts beyond recent highs/lows with percentage thresholds
Volatility Filter : ATR expansion confirmation to ensure signals occur during active market conditions
Market Session Filter : Filters signals to specific trading sessions (Tokyo, London, New York)
ADVANCED FEATURES
🎯 Smart Money Concepts Integration
Order Blocks : Identifies institutional supply/demand zones from major and minor structure breaks
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) : Detects price imbalances and tracks their evolution through partial fills and inversions
Market Structure : Recognizes Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) patterns
Retracement Patterns : Tracks HLH (Higher-Low-Higher) and LHL (Lower-High-Lower) institutional patterns
📈 Support/Resistance System
Multi-timeframe pivot detection (3, 5, 7-bar spans)
Volume-weighted strength calculation for level importance
Dynamic level merging and break tracking
Automatic level type classification (Support/Resistance/Flip zones)
⚙️ Intelligent Filtering Logic
ALL Mode : Requires all enabled filters to pass (high precision)
ANY Mode : Requires at least one filter to pass (higher frequency)
Real-time filter status tracking and visualization
Visual Features
Signal Markers : Clear triangular markers for qualified momentum bars
Unfiltered Signals : Optional display of raw momentum bars for comparison
Level Visualization : Dynamic S/R level boxes and lines with strength indicators
Structure Lines : BOS/CHoCH break visualization with major/minor classification
Fair Value Gaps : Color-coded boxes showing bullish/bearish FVGs with partial fill tracking and IFVG conversion
Order Blocks : Institutional supply/demand zones displayed as colored boxes with major/minor classification
Information Table : Real-time display of signal details and filter status
Session Boxes : Visual representation of active trading sessions
Practical Applications
✅ Swing Trading : Identify high-probability reversal and continuation setups
✅ Day Trading : Spot intraday momentum shifts with institutional backing
✅ Multi-Timeframe Analysis : Combine major and minor structure analysis
✅ Risk Management : Filter out low-quality setups using confluence requirements
✅ Educational : Understand market structure and institutional order flow
Customization Options
Adjustable momentum thresholds for different market conditions
Comprehensive filter settings with individual enable/disable controls
Visual customization for colors, sizes, and display preferences
Alert system with detailed signal information
Performance optimization settings for different chart timeframes
Who Should Use This Indicator
This indicator is suitable for traders who:
Want to combine multiple technical analysis approaches
Seek to understand institutional market behavior
Prefer confluence-based trading setups
Need customizable filtering for different market conditions
Value comprehensive signal validation over high-frequency alerts
The Momentum Confluence Detector transforms complex market analysis into clear, actionable signals by requiring multiple forms of confirmation before highlighting trading opportunities.
Aggregated Scores Oscillator [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated risk-adjusted performance measurement system that combines Omega Ratio and Sortino Ratio methodologies to create a comprehensive market assessment oscillator. Utilizing advanced statistical band calculations with expanding and rolling window analysis, this indicator delivers institutional-grade overbought/oversold detection based on risk-adjusted returns rather than traditional price movements. The system's dual-ratio aggregation approach provides superior signal accuracy by incorporating both upside potential and downside risk metrics with dynamic threshold adaptation for varying market conditions.
🔶 Advanced Statistical Framework
Implements dual statistical methodologies using expanding and rolling window calculations to create adaptive threshold bands that evolve with market conditions. The system calculates cumulative statistics alongside rolling averages to provide both historical context and current market regime sensitivity with configurable window parameters for optimal performance across timeframes.
🔶 Dual Ratio Integration System
Combines Omega Ratio analysis measuring excess returns versus deficit returns with Sortino Ratio calculations focusing on downside deviation for comprehensive risk-adjusted performance assessment. The system applies configurable smoothing to both ratios before aggregation, ensuring stable signal generation while maintaining sensitivity to regime changes.
// Omega Ratio Calculation
Excess_Return = sum((Daily_Return > Target_Return ? Daily_Return - Target_Return : 0), Period)
Deficit_Return = sum((Daily_Return < Target_Return ? Target_Return - Daily_Return : 0), Period)
Omega_Ratio = Deficit_Return ≠ 0 ? (Excess_Return / Deficit_Return) : na
// Sortino Ratio Framework
Downside_Deviation = sqrt(sum((Daily_Return < Target_Return ? (Daily_Return - Target_Return)² : 0), Period) / Period)
Sortino_Ratio = (Mean_Return / Downside_Deviation) * sqrt(Annualization_Factor)
// Aggregated Score
Aggregated_Score = SMA(Omega_Ratio, Omega_SMA) + SMA(Sortino_Ratio, Sortino_SMA)
🔶 Dynamic Band Calculation Engine
Features sophisticated threshold determination using both expanding historical statistics and rolling window analysis to create adaptive overbought/oversold levels. The system incorporates configurable multipliers and sensitivity adjustments to optimize signal timing across varying market volatility conditions with automatic band convergence logic.
🔶 Signal Generation Framework
Generates overbought conditions when aggregated score exceeds adjusted upper threshold and oversold conditions below lower threshold, with neutral zone identification for range-bound markets. The system provides clear binary signal states with background zone highlighting and dynamic oscillator coloring for intuitive market condition assessment.
🔶 Enhanced Visual Architecture
Provides modern dark theme visualization with neon color scheme, dynamic oscillator line coloring based on signal states, and gradient band fills for comprehensive market condition visualization. The system includes zero-line reference, statistical band plots, and background zone highlighting with configurable transparency levels.
snapshot
🔶 Risk-Adjusted Performance Analysis
Utilizes target return parameters for customizable risk assessment baselines, enabling traders to evaluate performance relative to specific return objectives. The system's focus on downside deviation through Sortino analysis provides superior risk-adjusted signals compared to traditional volatility-based oscillators that treat upside and downside movements equally.
🔶 Multi-Timeframe Adaptability
Features configurable calculation periods and rolling windows to optimize performance across various timeframes from intraday to long-term analysis. The system's statistical foundation ensures consistent signal quality regardless of timeframe selection while maintaining sensitivity to market regime changes through adaptive band calculations.
🔶 Performance Optimization Framework
Implements efficient statistical calculations with optimized variable management and configurable smoothing parameters to balance responsiveness with signal stability. The system includes automatic band adjustment mechanisms and rolling window management for consistent performance across extended analysis periods.
This indicator delivers sophisticated risk-adjusted market analysis by combining proven statistical ratios in a unified oscillator framework. Unlike traditional overbought/oversold indicators that rely solely on price movements, the ASO incorporates risk-adjusted performance metrics to identify genuine market extremes based on return quality rather than price volatility alone. The system's adaptive statistical bands and dual-ratio methodology provide institutional-grade signal accuracy suitable for systematic trading approaches across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets with comprehensive visual feedback and configurable risk parameters for optimal strategy integration.
RSI: chart overlay
This indicator maps RSI thresholds directly onto price. Since the EMA of price aligns with RSI’s 50-line, it draws a volatility-based band around the EMA to reveal levels such as 70 and 30.
By converting RSI values into visible price bands, the overlay lets you see exactly where price would have to move to hit traditional RSI boundaries. These bands adapt in real time to both price movement and market volatility, keeping the classic RSI logic intact while presenting it in the context of price action. This approach helps traders interpret RSI signals without leaving the main chart window.
The calculation uses the same components as the RSI: alternative derivation script: Wilder’s EMA for smoothing, a volatility-based unit for scaling, and a normalization factor. The result is a dynamic band structure on the chart, representing RSI boundary levels in actual price terms.
Key components and calculation breakdown:
Wilder’s EMA
Used as the anchor point for measuring price position.
myEMA = ta.rma(close, Length)
Volatility Unit
Derived from the EMA of absolute close-to-close price changes.
CC_vol = ta.rma(math.abs(close - close ), Length)
Normalization Factor
Scales the volatility unit to align with the RSI formula’s structure.
normalization_factor = 1 / (Length - 1)
Upper and Lower Boundaries
Defines price bands corresponding to selected RSI threshold values.
up_b = myEMA + ((upper - 50) / 50) * (CC_vol / normalization_factor)
down_b = myEMA - ((50 - lower) / 50) * (CC_vol / normalization_factor)
Inputs
RSI length
Upper boundary – RSI level above 50
Lower boundary – RSI level below 50
ON/OFF toggle for 50-point line (EMA of close prices)
ON/OFF toggle for overbought/oversold coloring (use with line chart)
Interpretation:
Each band on the chart represents a chosen RSI level.
When price touches a band, RSI is at that threshold.
The distance between moving average and bands adjusts automatically with volatility and your selected RSI length.
All calculations remain fully consistent with standard RSI values.
Feedback and code suggestions are welcome, especially regarding implementation efficiency and customization.
ORB Pro w/ Filters + Debug + ORB Fib + Golden Pocket + HTF Trend🚀 ORB Pro – Advanced Opening Range Breakout System
A professional ORB indicator with built-in filters, retest confirmation, EMA/HTF trend alignment, and automatic risk/reward targets. Designed to eliminate false breakouts and give traders clean LONG/SHORT signals with Fibonacci and debug overlays for maximum precision.
This script is an advanced Opening Range Breakout (ORB) system designed for futures, indices, and options traders who want more precision, cleaner entries, and higher win probability. It combines classic ORB logic with modern filters, Fibonacci confluence, and higher-timeframe trend confirmation.
The indicator automatically:
Plots the ORB box based on user-defined NY session times (default: 9:30–9:45 EST).
Generates long/short signals when price breaks the ORB range, with optional conditions like:
Candle close outside the range
Retest confirmation (with tolerance %)
Volume spike validation
EMA trend alignment
Higher-timeframe EMA slope alignment
Cooldown filters to prevent over-trading
Integrates Fibonacci retracements & extensions from the ORB box for confluence levels.
Includes Golden Pocket (0.5–0.618) retests for precision entries
Risk/Reward visualization — automatically plots stop loss and take profit levels based on user-defined R:R or fixed % levels.
Debug mode overlay to show why a signal is blocked (e.g., low volume, ORB too small, too late, wrong trend).
This tool is built for scalpers, day traders, and 0DTE options traders who need both flexibility and discipline.
⚙️ Inputs & Features
ORB Settings
ORB Start & End Time (NY) → Default: 9:30–9:45
Require Candle Close → Ensures breakouts are confirmed, not wick traps.
Retest Confirmation → Optional retest before entry (tolerance % adjustable).
Filters
Volume Spike → Validates breakouts only with above-average volume.
EMA Trend Filter → Confirms trade direction with EMA slope.
Higher Timeframe Trend → Optional (e.g., 15m ORB with 1h EMA alignment).
Cooldown Bars → Prevents consecutive false signals.
ORB Size Filter → Blocks signals when ORB is too small/too large.
Fibonacci Levels
Retracements: 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786
Extensions: 1.272, 1.618
Golden Pocket Retest filter for high-probability trades
Risk Management
R:R Stops/Targets → Automatically plots SL/TP levels.
Custom Stop % / Take Profit % if not using R:R
Debug Overlay → Explains why signals are blocked
🧑💻 How to Use
Load the indicator on your chart (works best on 1m, 5m, and 15m).
Adjust ORB window (default 9:30–9:45 EST).
Select filters (candle close, retest, volume, EMA, HTF trend).
Watch for Long/Short labels outside ORB box with filters aligned.
Manage trades using plotted SL/TP levels or your own Webull/R:R calculator.
✅ Best Use Cases
Futures (NQ1!, ES1!)
ETFs (QQQ, SPY, IWM)
0DTE Options Trading
Scalping around market open
⚠️ Disclaimer
This tool is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always test on paper trading before using real capital.
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ORB Pro w/ Filters + Debug + ORB Fib + Golden Pocket + HTF Trend
A professional Opening Range Breakout (ORB) toolkit designed for intraday traders who want precision entries, risk-managed exits, and layered confirmation filters. Built for futures, stocks, and ETFs (e.g. NQ, ES, QQQ).
🔎 Core Logic
This script plots and trades breakouts from the Opening Range (9:30 – 9:45 NY time), then applies multiple confirmation filters before signaling a LONG or SHORT setup:
ORB Box: Defines the first 15 minutes of market activity (customizable).
Breakout Candle Confirmation: Requires a candle close outside the ORB box.
Retest Confirmation: Price must retest the ORB edge within tolerance before triggering.
Trend Filter: EMA confirmation to align trades with intraday trend.
Higher-Timeframe Trend Filter: Optional (default: 45-minute EMA) to avoid countertrend trades.
Fibonacci Levels: Auto-plot retracements (0.236 → 0.786) for confluence and trade management.
Golden Pocket Retest (Optional): Adds an extra precision filter at 0.5–0.618 retracement.
⚙️ Default Settings (Optimized for Beginners)
These are the pre-configured inputs so traders can load and trade immediately:
ORB Session: 9:30 – 9:45 NY
✅ Require Candle Close Outside ORB
✅ Require Retest Confirmation (tolerance 0.333%)
❌ Require Volume Spike (off by default, optional toggle)
✅ Require EMA Trend (50 EMA intraday)
✅ Require Higher-TF Trend (45m, EMA 21)
❌ Higher-TF EMA slope required (off)
✅ Cooldown Between Signals (10 bars)
ORB % Range: Min 0.3%, Max 0.5%
Max Minutes After ORB: 180
✅ ORB-based Risk/Reward Stops & Targets (default: 2R)
Stop Loss: 0.5% (if not R:R)
Take Profit: 1% (if not R:R)
✅ Debug Overlay (shows why signals are blocked)
✅ Fibonacci Retracements Plotted
❌ Extensions (off by default, toggle if needed)
✅ Golden Pocket Retest available, tolerance 0.11 (optional)
📈 Signals
Green "LONG" Label: Valid breakout above ORB with trend confirmation.
Red "SHORT" Label: Valid breakdown below ORB with trend confirmation.
Blocked (debug text): Signal suppressed by filters (low volume, too late, no retest, etc.).
🎯 Trade Management
Default R:R is 2:1 (stop at ORB edge, TP projected).
For manual trading (e.g., Webull, IBKR), you can use the plotted TP/SL boxes directly.
Fibonacci + Golden Pocket give additional profit-taking levels and retest filters.
✅ Best Practices
Use 15m chart for main ORB entries.
Confirm direction with HTF trend (45m EMA by default).
Avoid signals blocked by “Low Volume” or “Too Late” (debug helps identify).
Adjust ORB % range for asset volatility (tight for ETFs, wider for futures).
🚀 Why ORB Pro?
This is more than a standard ORB indicator. It’s a professional breakout system with filters designed to avoid false breakouts, automatically handle risk/reward, and guide traders with clear visual signals. Perfect for both systematic day traders and discretionary scalpers who want structure and confidence.
👉 Recommended starting point:
Load defaults → trade the 15m ORB with EMA + HTF filters on → let the script handle retests and stop/target placement.
💎DrFX Diamond Algo 💎Diamond Algo - Multi-Feature Trading System
Advanced trading system combining Supertrend signals with multiple confirmation filters, risk management tools, and a comprehensive market analysis dashboard.
═══ CORE FEATURES ═══
• Smart Buy/Sell signals using modified Supertrend algorithm
• Multi-timeframe trend analysis (M1 to D1)
• Support & Resistance zone detection
• Risk management with automatic TP/SL levels (1:1, 2:1, 3:1)
• Real-time market dashboard with key metrics
• Multiple trend cloud overlays for visual confirmation
═══ SIGNAL GENERATION ═══
BUY Signal:
• Supertrend bullish crossover
• Price above SMA filter
• Optional smart signals (EMA 200 confirmation)
SELL Signal:
• Supertrend bearish crossunder
• Price below SMA filter
• Optional smart signals (EMA 200 confirmation)
═══ DASHBOARD COMPONENTS ═══
• Multi-timeframe trend status (8 timeframes)
• Current position indicator
• Market state analysis (Trending/Ranging/No trend)
• Volatility percentage
• Institutional activity monitor
• Trading session tracker (NY/London/Tokyo/Sydney)
• Trend pressure indicator
═══ VISUAL OVERLAYS ═══
• Trend Cloud: Long-term trend visualization
• Trend Follower: Adaptive trend line
• Comulus Cloud: Dual ALMA-based trend zones
• Cirrus Cloud: Short-term trend bands
• Smart Trail: Fibonacci-based trailing stop
• Dynamic trend lines with breakout alerts
═══ RISK MANAGEMENT ═══
• Automatic Stop-Loss placement (ATR-based)
• Three Take-Profit levels with Risk:Reward ratios
• Entry price labeling
• Optional distance and decimal customization
• Visual lines connecting entry to targets
═══ INPUT PARAMETERS ═══
Sensitivity (1-20): Controls signal frequency
Smart Signals Only: Filters for high-probability setups
Bar Coloring: Trend-based or gradient coloring
Dashboard Location/Size: Customizable placement
Multiple overlay toggles for clean charts
═══ BEST PRACTICES ═══
• Lower sensitivity (1-5) for swing trading
• Higher sensitivity (10-20) for scalping
• Enable Smart Signals for conservative approach
• Use dashboard to confirm multi-timeframe alignment
• Monitor volatility % before entering trades
═══ ALERT CONDITIONS ═══
• Buy Alert: Triggered on bullish signal
• Sell Alert: Triggered on bearish signal
• Trend line breakout alerts (automated)
═══ VERSION INFO ═══
Pine Script: v5
Max Labels: 500
Repainting: Minimal (uses confirmed bars for signals)
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Long Elite Squeeze (LES 2.1) NV/CDV AI LindsayLES 2.1 — Long Elite Squeeze
Creator: Hunter Hammond •: Elite × FineFir H.H (AI “Lindsay”)
Discord: elitexfinefir
LES (“Long Elite Squeeze”) is a momentum + flow-aware long strategy built for small-float, high-velocity stocks. It blends a classic squeeze engine (BB/KC), adaptive RVOL/RSI gating, VWAP slope, ADX trend filtering, WaveTrend timing, and new Net-Volume/CVD flow exits—all wrapped with on-chart HUDs, a trade tracker, trap detection, and a lightweight AI selector to adapt entries to live conditions.
Who it’s for (and where it thrives)
LES 2.1 is tuned for the morning session and stocks that can really move:
Top Pre-Market and Day Gainers
Highest or Top Volume on Day
Float: ≤ 40M
Price: ≤ $20
Volume: ≥ 5× the 30-day average (intraday RVOL pop)
Catalyst: ideally a fresh news driver / “day gainer”
Timeframe: 1-minute (designed & tuned for 1m). Works on 2m/3m/5m, but wasn’t specifically designed for them (see tuning tips below).
Evolution at a glance
LES 1.0 — The foundation
Squeeze engine using Bollinger vs. Keltner to detect expansion (“squeeze OFF”).
EMA – ATR offset line (dynamic risk anchor) with EMA as trend filter.
RSI guard for overheated moves.
RVOL confirmation using average volume lookback.
WaveTrend (WT + Signal) to time entries/exits.
Basic buy/sell logic + simple on-chart labels.
LES 2.0 — Quality-of-life & timing upgrades
AI Lindsay assistant v2 (periodic / contextual commentary).
VWAP Slope Detector with sensitivity modes (Loose → Very Strict).
Manual defaults pre-tuned for ease of use.
Double-EMA trailing (visual take-profit helper).
Improved on-chart commentary and Trade Summary (10:30am snapshot).
AI Version Suggester (V1/V2/V3 modes) with stickiness/cooldown.
Trap Detector Pro (sweep, VWAP reject, blow-off, etc.) with scored severity.
Trade Tracker HUD + Entry Checklist HUD.
Overall stability & UX polish.
LES 2.1 — Flow-based exit superpowers
New Flow Exit: integrates 1m Net Volume and 5m CVD-style pressure:
1m NetVol window (rolling sum of signed volume)
5m CVD window (downsampled, smoothed)
Debounce (consecutive red bars to avoid one-tick fakes)
Optional ATR Guard (only exit if the move is meaningful vs ATR)
Cooldown after a flow exit to avoid re-chop
Chart labels: “SELL (NV/CVD)” when flow triggers
Keeps you in good trends, but kicks you out when aggressive sellers actually show up.
How the engine works (plain English)
Market prep: We confirm trend & energy using EMA/ATR, RSI, RVOL, Squeeze OFF, and Price > VWAP.
Entry mode (V1/V2/V3):
V1 — Balanced trades (default “safe” behavior)
V2 — Fast trades (more aggressive when action heats up)
V3 — Trending trades (stricter; waits for strong slope & trend)
You can pick a version manually or let the AI Suggester switch modes based on slope/ADX/RVOL/acceleration (with a cooldown so it doesn’t flip-flop).
Entry timing: WaveTrend and squeeze momentum improve timing while VWAP slope avoids buying flat tape.
Risk anchor: The EMA – (ATR × Multiplier) “offset line” is your dynamic stop/line in the sand.
Exits:
Base exits (version-aware): WT crossback, momentum fade, price losing offsetLine or EMA.
Flow Exit (2.1): If 1m NetVol and 5m CVD both turn decisively red (with debounce and optional ATR guard), close—no arguing.
Entry rules (exactly what has to be true)
Buy (Core) — fires when all are true:
Not already in a trade
Close > EMA and Close > OffsetLine (offsetLine = EMA − ATR × Mult)
RVOL confirmed (meets dynamic RVOL multiplier)
RSI below the overbought ceiling (version-aware slack in V3)
Squeeze OFF (BBs expanded outside Keltner)
Price > VWAP (toggleable)
Extra for V3 (Trending trades):
VWAP slope gate passes (and, if set, VWAP must be green)
ADX strong (≥ 25 by design, ≥ 20 baseline)
Minimum slopePctPerBar met (default V3 expects ≥ 0.05%/bar)
AI Suggester (optional):
Scores V1/V2/V3 from conditions like ADX, VWAP slope, RVOL, intrabar acceleration, then locks a pick for aiSwitchCoolBars bars.
On-chart help:
Checklist HUD lights up ✅/❌ for each gate (EMA, ATR, RVOL, RSI, VWAP, Slope, etc.).
Trade Quality Rating (🌟x/10) appears on buy bars if enabled.
Exit rules (every sell condition)
Base sells (V1/V2):
WaveTrend crossback (signal crosses over WT) OR
Momentum fade (two darker squeeze momentum bars) OR
Close < OffsetLine OR Close < EMA
Base sells (V3):
Close < OffsetLine OR Close < EMA (trend-respecting; ignores WT/momentum so you’re not shaken out early)
Flow Exit (2.1, applies to all versions if enabled):
In trade AND Flow Exit enabled
1m NetVol window is red (and ≥ Min |NetVol|)
5m CVD (smoothed) is red
**Deb
*** FYI: Play with settings until it fits your style, everything thats set default when script is loaded is what I run currently. I made LES 2.1 more customizable than ever to meet every trades style and execution. LES 2.1 with Lindsay upgrade new AI trade tracking feature (when enabled) and risk management LES 2.1 is something special to meet many challenges a trader faces everyday.
John Bollinger's Bollinger BandsJapanese below / 日本語説明は下記
This indicator replicates how John Bollinger, the inventor of Bollinger Bands, uses Bollinger Bands, displaying Bollinger Bands, %B and Bandwidth in one indicator with alerts and signals.
Bollinger Bands is created by John Bollinger in 1980s who is an American financial trader and analyst. He introduced %B and Bandwidth 30 years later.
🟦 What's different from other Bollinger Bands indicator?
Unlike the default Bollinger Bands or other custom Bollinger Bands indicators on TradingView, this indicator enables to display three Bollinger Bands tools into a single indicator with signals and alerts capability.
You can plot the classic Bollinger Bands together with either %B or Bandwidth or three tools altogether which requires the specific setting(see below settings).
This makes it easy to quantitatively monitor volatility changes and price position in relation to Bollinger Bands in one place.
🟦 Features:
Plots Bollinger Bands (Upper, Basis, Lower) with fill between bands.
Option to display %B or Bandwidth with Bollinger Bands.
Plots highest and lowest Bandwidth levels over a customizable lookback period.
Adds visual markers when Bandwidth reaches its highest (Bulge) or lowest (Squeeze) value.
Includes ready-to-use alert conditions for Bulge and Squeeze events.
📈Chart
Green triangles and red triangles in the bottom chart mark Bulges and Squeezes respectively.
🟦 Settings:
Length: Number of bars used for Bollinger Band middleline calculation.
Basis MA Type: Choose SMA, EMA, SMMA (RMA), WMA, or VWMA for the midline.
StdDev: Standard deviation multiplier (default = 2.0).
Option: Select "Bandwidth" or "%B" (add the indicator twice if you want to display both).
Period for Squeeze and Bulge: Lookback period for detecting the highest and lowest Bandwidth levels.(default = 125 as specified by John Bollinger )
Style Settings: Colors, line thickness, and transparency can be customized.
📈Chart
The chart below shows an example of three Bollinger Bands tools: Bollinger Band, %B and Bandwidth are in display.
To do this, you need to add this indicator TWICE where you select %B from Option in the first addition of this indicator and Bandwidth from Option in the second addition.
🟦 Usage:
🟠Monitor Volatility:
Watch Bandwidth values to spot volatility contractions (Squeeze) and expansions (Bulge) that often precede strong price moves.
John Bollinger defines Squeeze and Bulge as follows;
Squeeze:
The lowest bandwidth in the past 125 period, where trend is born.
Bulge:
The highest bandwidth in the past 125 period where trend is going to die.
According to John Bollinger, this 125 period can be used in any timeframe.
📈Chart1
Example of Squeeze
You can see uptrends start after squeeze(red triangles)
📈Chart2
Example of Bulge
You can see the trend reversal from downtrend to uptrends at the bulge(green triangles)
📈Chart3
Bulge DOES NOT NECESSARILY mean the beginning of a trend in opposite direction.
For example, you can see a bulge happening in the right side of the chart where green triangles are marked. Nevertheless, uptrend still continues after the bulge.
In this case, the bulge marks the beginning of a consolidation which lead to the continuation of the trend. It means that a phase of the trend highlighted in the light blue box came to an end.
Note: light blue box is not drawn by the indicator.
Like other technical analysis methods or tools, these setups do not guarantee birth of new trends and trend reversals. Traders should be carefully observing these setups along with other factors for making decisions.
🟠Track Price Position:
Use %B to see where price is located in relation to the Bollinger Bands.
If %B is close to 1, the price is near upper band while %B is close to 0, the price is near lower band.
🟠Set Alerts:
Receive alerts when Bandwidth hits highest and lowest values of bandwidth, helping you prepare for potential breakout, ending of trends and trend reversal opportunities.
🟠Combine with Other Tools:
This indicator would work best when combined with price action, trend analysis, or
market environmental analysis.
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このインジケーターはボリンジャーバンドの考案者であるジョン・ボリンジャー氏が提唱するボリンジャーバンドの使い方を再現するために、ボリンジャーバンド、%B、バンドウィズ(Bandwidth) の3つを1つのインジケーターで表示可能にしたものです。シグナルやアラートにも対応しています。
ボリンジャーバンドは1980年代にアメリカ人トレーダー兼アナリストのジョン・ボリンジャー氏によって開発されました。彼はその30年後に%Bとバンドウィズを導入しました。
🟦 他のボリンジャーバンドとの違い
TradingView標準のボリンジャーバンドや他のボリンジャーバンドとは異なり、このインジケーターでは3つのボリンジャーバンドツールを1つのインジケーターで表示し、シグナルやアラート機能も利用できるようになっています。
一般的に知られている通常のボリンジャーバンドに加え、%Bやバンドウィズを組み合わせて表示でき、設定次第では3つすべてを同時にモニターすることも可能です。これにより、価格とボリンジャーバンドの位置関係とボラティリティ変化をひと目で、かつ定量的に把握することができます。
🟦 機能:
ボリンジャーバンド（アッパーバンド・基準線・ロワーバンド）を描画し、バンド間を塗りつぶし表示。
オプションで%Bまたはバンドウィズを追加表示可能。
バンドウィズの最高値・最安値を、任意の期間で検出して表示。
バンドウィズが指定期間の最高値（バルジ※）または最安値（スクイーズ）に達した際にシグナルを表示。
※バルジは一般的にボリンジャーバンドで用いられるエクスパンションとほぼ同じ意味ですが、定義が異なります。(下記参照)
バルジおよびスクイーズ発生時のアラート設定が可能。
📈 チャート例
下記チャートの緑の三角と赤の三角は、それぞれバルジとスクイーズを示しています。
🟦 設定:
Length: ボリンジャーバンドの基準線計算に使う期間。
Basis MA Type: SMA, EMA, SMMA (RMA), WMA, VWMAから選択可能。
StdDev: 標準偏差の乗数（デフォルト2.0）。
Option: 「Bandwidth」または「%B」を選択（両方表示するにはこのインジケーターを2回追加）。
Period for Squeeze and Bulge: Bandwidthの最高値・最安値を検出する期間（デフォルトはジョン・ボリンジャー氏が推奨する125）。
Style Settings: 色、線の太さ、透明度などをカスタマイズ可能。
📈 チャート例
下のチャートは「ボリンジャーバンド」「%B」「バンドウィズ」の3つを同時に表示した例です。
この場合、インジケーターを2回追加し、最初に追加した方ではOptionを「%B」に、次に追加した方では「Bandwidth」を選択します。
🟦 使い方:
🟠 ボラティリティを監視する:
バンドウィズの値を見ることで、価格変動の収縮（スクイーズ）や拡大（バルジ）を確認できます。
これらはしばしば強い値動きの前兆となります。
ジョン・ボリンジャー氏はスクイーズとバルジを次のように定義しています：
スクイーズ: 過去125期間の中で最も低いバンドウィズ→ 新しいトレンドが生まれる場所。
バルジ: 過去125期間の中で最も高いバンドウィズ → トレンドが終わりを迎える場所。
この「125期間」はどのタイムフレームでも利用可能とされています。
📈 チャート1
スクイーズの例
赤い三角のスクイーズの後に上昇トレンドが始まっているのが確認できます。
📈 チャート2
バルジの例
緑の三角のバルジの箇所で下降トレンドから上昇トレンドへの反転が見られます。
📈 チャート3
バルジが必ずしも反転を意味しない例
下記のチャート右側の緑の三角で示されたバルジの後も、上昇トレンドが継続しています。
この場合、バルジは反転ではなく「トレンド一時的な調整（レンジ入り）」を示しており、結果的に上昇トレンドが継続しています。
この場合、バルジは水色のボックスで示されたトレンドのフェーズの終わりを示しています。
※水色のボックスはインジケーターが描画したものではありません。
また、他のテクニカル分析と同様に、これらのセットアップは必ず新しいトレンドの発生やトレンド転換を保証するものではありません。トレーダーは他の要素も考慮し、慎重に意思決定する必要があります。
🟠 価格とボリンジャーバンドの位置関係を確認する:
%Bを利用すれば、価格がバンドのどこに位置しているかを簡単に把握できます。
%Bが1に近ければ価格はアッパーバンド付近、0に近ければロワーバンド付近にあります。
🟠 アラートを設定する:
バンドウィズが一定期間の最高値または最安値に到達した際にアラートを設定することで、ブレイクアウトやトレンド終了、反転の可能性に備えることができます。
🟠 他のツールと組み合わせる:
このインジケーターは、プライスアクション、トレンド分析、環境認識などと組み合わせて活用すると最も効果的です。
Liquidity Spectrum Visualizer [BigBeluga] [Optimized]This version of Liquidity Spectrum Visualizer (© BigBeluga) has been optimized to improve execution speed and reduce script load times without altering the visual output or analytical logic of the original indicator. The key improvements focus on reducing computational complexity, eliminating redundant calculations, and minimizing expensive function calls within loops.
Core Optimization Changes
Single-Pass Volume Binning (O(N) instead of O(N×M))
Original: For each bin (100) the script iterated through every bar (lookback), resulting in ~20,000 operations.
Optimized: Each bar is processed once to directly calculate its bin index. This reduces the loop complexity from O(N×M) to O(N), where N = lookback.
Precomputed Min/Max Values
Original: array.min() and array.max() were repeatedly called inside loops, re-scanning arrays hundreds of times.
Optimized: Min and max are computed once before all calculations and reused, reducing computational overhead.
Reduced Label Creation
Original: Labels were created in every iteration, potentially hundreds of times per update — a very expensive operation in Pine.
Optimized: Only two labels are created for significant high and low levels, cutting down label calls by ~99%.
Efficient Resource Management
All boxes and lines are cleared once before re-rendering instead of being deleted individually inside nested loops.
Optional gradient rendering and POC drawing remain, but only after binning is complete.
Performance Evaluation
The most important change is the reduction of loop complexity — instead of performing around 20,000 iterations per update, the optimized version now processes only about 200. This reduces execution time and makes the indicator much lighter.
Function calls such as min() and max() are now calculated only once instead of hundreds of times, which removes unnecessary overhead. Likewise, label creation has been reduced from hundreds of labels per refresh to just two, further improving performance.
As a result, the average loading time of the indicator dropped from roughly 1.5–3 seconds to about 0.05–0.2 seconds on typical datasets.
AutoDay MA (Session-Normalized)📊 AutoDay MA (Session-Normalized Moving Average)
⚡ Daily power, intraday precision.
AutoDay MA automatically converts any N-day moving average into the exact equivalent on your current intraday timeframe.
💡 Concept inspired by Brian Shannon (Alphatrends) – mapping daily MAs onto intraday charts by normalizing session minutes.
🛠 How it works
Set Days (N) (e.g., 5, 10, 20).
Define Session Minutes per Day (⏱ 390 = US RTH, 🌍 1440 = 24h).
The indicator detects your chart’s timeframe and computes:
Length = (Days × SessionMinutes) / BarMinutes
Applies your chosen MA type (📐 SMA / EMA / RMA / WMA) with rounding (nearest, up, down).
Displays all details in a clear corner info panel.
✅ Why use it
Consistency 🔄: Same 5-day smoothing across all intraday charts.
Session-aware 🕒: Works for equities, futures, FX, crypto.
Transparency 🔍: Always shows the math & final MA length.
Alerts built-in 🔔: Cross up/down vs. price.
📈 Examples
5-Day on 1m → 1950-period MA
5-Day on 15m → 130-period MA
5-Day on 65m → 30-period MA
10-Day on 24h/15m (crypto) → 960-period MA
VWAP / ORB / VP & POCThis is an all-in-one technical analysis tool designed to give you a comprehensive view of the market on a single chart. It combines three powerful indicators—VWAP, Opening Range, and Volume Profile—to help you identify key price levels, understand intraday trends, and spot areas of high liquidity.
What It Does
The indicator plots three distinct components on your chart:
Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): A benchmark that shows the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both price and volume. It's often used by institutional traders to gauge whether they are getting a good price. The script also plots standard deviation or percentage-based bands around the VWAP line, which can act as dynamic support and resistance.
Opening Range Breakout (ORB): A tool that highlights the high and low of the initial trading period of a session (e.g., the first 15 minutes). The script draws lines for the opening price, range high, and range low for the rest of the session. It also colors the chart with zones to visually separate price action above, below, and within this critical opening range.
Volume Profile (VP): A powerful study that shows trading activity over a set number of bars at specific price levels. Unlike traditional volume that is plotted over time, this is plotted on the price axis. It helps you instantly see where the most and least trading has occurred, identifying significant levels like the Point of Control (POC)—the single price with the most volume—and the Value Area (VA), where the majority of trading took place.
How to Use It for Trading
The real strength of this indicator comes from finding confluence, where two or more of its components signal the same key level.
Identifying Support & Resistance: The POC, VWAP bands, Opening Range high/low, and session open price are all powerful levels to watch. When price approaches one of these levels, you can anticipate a potential reaction (a bounce or a breakout).
Gauging Intraday Trend: A simple rule of thumb is to consider the intraday trend bullish when the price is trading above the VWAP and bearish when it is trading below the VWAP.
Finding High-Value Zones: The Volume Profile’s Value Area (VA) shows you where the market has accepted a price. Trading within the VA is considered "fair value," while prices outside of it are "unfair." Reversals often happen when the price tries to re-enter the Value Area from the outside.
Settings:
Here’s a breakdown of all the settings you can change to customize the indicator to your liking.
Volume Profile Settings:
Number of Bars: How many of the most recent bars to use for the calculation. A higher number gives a broader profile.
Row Size: The number of price levels (rows) in the profile. Higher numbers give a more detailed, granular view.
Value Area Volume %: The percentage of total volume to include in the Value Area (standard is 70%).
Horizontal Offset: Moves the Volume Profile further to the right to avoid overlapping with recent price action.
Colors & Styles: Customize the colors for the POC line, Value Area, and the up/down volume bars.
VWAP Settings:
Anchor Period: Resets the VWAP calculation at the start of a new Session, Week, Month, Year, etc. You can even anchor it to corporate events like Earnings or Splits.
Source: The price source used in the calculation (default is hlc3, the average of the high, low, and close).
Bands Calculation Mode:
Standard Deviation: The bands are based on statistical volatility.
Percentage: The bands are a fixed percentage away from the VWAP line.
Bands Multiplier: Sets the distance of the bands from the VWAP. You can enable and configure up to three sets of bands.
ORB Settings (Opening Range)
Opening Range Timeframe: The duration of the opening range (e.g., 15 for 15 minutes, 60 for the first hour).
Market Session & Time Zone: Crucial for ensuring the range is calculated at the correct time for the asset you're trading.
Line & Zone Styles: Full customization for the colors, thickness, and style (Solid, Dashed, Dotted) of the High, Low, and Opening Price lines, as well as the background colors for the zones above, below, and within the range.
Exhaustion Detector by exp3rtsThis advanced indicator is designed to spot buyer and seller exhaustion zones by combining candle structure, volume anomalies, momentum oscillators, and support/resistance context. Optimized for the 5-minute chart, it highlights potential turning points where momentum is likely fading.
Multi-factor detection – Uses RSI, Stochastic, volume spikes, wick-to-body ratios, and ATR context to identify exhaustion.
Smart filtering – Optional trend filter (EMA) and support/resistance proximity filter refine signals.
Cooldown logic – Prevents repeated signals in rapid succession to reduce noise.
Confidence scoring – Each exhaustion signal is graded for strength, so you can gauge conviction.
Visual clarity – Clear arrows mark exhaustion signals, background zones highlight pressure areas, and debug labels show score breakdowns (toggleable).
Use this tool to:
Anticipate potential reversals before price turns
Spot exhaustion at key support/resistance zones
Add a contrarian signal filter to your trading system
Volume Based Sampling [BackQuant]Volume Based Sampling
What this does
This indicator converts the usual time-based stream of candles into an event-based stream of “synthetic” bars that are created only when enough trading activity has occurred . You choose the activity definition:
Volume bars : create a new synthetic bar whenever the cumulative number of shares/contracts traded reaches a threshold.
Dollar bars : create a new synthetic bar whenever the cumulative traded dollar value (price × volume) reaches a threshold.
The script then keeps an internal ledger of these synthetic opens, highs, lows, closes, and volumes, and can display them as candles, plot a moving average calculated over the synthetic closes, mark each time a new sample is formed, and optionally overlay the native time-bars for comparison.
Why event-based sampling matters
Markets do not release information on a clock: activity clusters during news, opens/closes, and liquidity shocks. Event-based bars normalize for that heteroskedastic arrival of information: during active periods you get more bars (finer resolution); during quiet periods you get fewer bars (coarser resolution). Research shows this can reduce microstructure pathologies and produce series that are closer to i.i.d. and more suitable for statistical modeling and ML. In particular:
Volume and dollar bars are a common event-time alternative to time bars in quantitative research and are discussed extensively in Advances in Financial Machine Learning (AFML). These bars aim to homogenize information flow by sampling on traded size or value rather than elapsed seconds.
The Volume Clock perspective models market activity in “volume time,” showing that many intraday phenomena (volatility, liquidity shocks) are better explained when time is measured by traded volume instead of seconds.
Related market microstructure work on flow toxicity and liquidity highlights that the risk dealers face is tied to information intensity of order flow, again arguing for activity-based clocks.
How the indicator works (plain English)
Choose your bucket type
Volume : accumulate volume until it meets a threshold.
Dollar Bars : accumulate close × volume until it meets a dollar threshold.
Pick the threshold rule
Dynamic threshold : by default, the script computes a rolling statistic (mean or median) of recent activity to set the next bucket size. This adapts bar size to changing conditions (e.g., busier sessions produce more frequent synthetic bars).
Fixed threshold : optionally override with a constant target (e.g., exactly 100,000 contracts per synthetic bar, or $5,000,000 per dollar bar).
Build the synthetic bar
While a bucket fills, the script tracks:
o_s: first price of the bucket (synthetic open)
h_s: running maximum price (synthetic high)
l_s: running minimum price (synthetic low)
c_s: last price seen (synthetic close)
v_s: cumulative native volume inside the bucket
d_samples: number of native bars consumed to complete the bucket (a proxy for “how fast” the threshold filled)
Emit a new sample
Once the bucket meets/exceeds the threshold, a new synthetic bar is finalized and stored. If overflow occurs (e.g., a single native bar pushes you past the threshold by a lot), the code will emit multiple synthetic samples to account for the extra activity.
Maintain a rolling history efficiently
A ring buffer can overwrite the oldest samples when you hit your Max Stored Samples cap, keeping memory usage stable.
Compute synthetic-space statistics
The script computes an SMA over the last N synthetic closes and basic descriptors like average bars per synthetic sample, mean and standard deviation of synthetic returns, and more. These are all in event time , not clock time.
Inputs and options you will actually use
Data Settings
Sampling Method : Volume or Dollar Bars.
Rolling Lookback : window used to estimate the dynamic threshold from recent activity.
Filter : Mean or Median for the dynamic threshold. Median is more robust to spikes.
Use Fixed? / Fixed Threshold : override dynamic sizing with a constant target.
Max Stored Samples : cap on synthetic history to keep performance snappy.
Use Ring Buffer : turn on to recycle storage when at capacity.
Indicator Settings
SMA over last N samples : moving average in synthetic space . Because its index is sample count, not minutes, it adapts naturally: more updates in busy regimes, fewer in quiet regimes.
Visuals
Show Synthetic Bars : plot the synthetic OHLC candles.
Candle Color Mode :
Green/Red: directional close vs open
Volume Intensity: opacity scales with synthetic size
Neutral: single color
Adaptive: graded by how large the bucket was relative to threshold
Mark new samples : drop a small marker whenever a new synthetic bar prints.
Comparison & Research
Show Time Bars : overlay the native time-based candles to visually compare how the two sampling schemes differ.
How to read it, step by step
Turn on “Synthetic Bars” and optionally overlay “Time Bars.” You will see that during high-activity bursts, synthetic bars print much faster than time bars.
Watch the synthetic SMA . Crosses in synthetic space can be more meaningful because each update represents a roughly comparable amount of traded information.
Use the “Avg Bars per Sample” in the info table as a regime signal. Falling average bars per sample means activity is clustering, often coincident with higher realized volatility.
Try Dollar Bars when price varies a lot but share count does not; they normalize by dollar risk taken in each sample. Volume Bars are ideal when share count is a better proxy for information flow in your instrument.
Quant finance background and citations
Event time vs. clock time : Easley, López de Prado, and O’Hara advocate measuring intraday phenomena on a volume clock to better align sampling with information arrival. This framing helps explain volatility bursts and liquidity droughts and motivates volume-based bars.
Flow toxicity and dealer risk : The same authors show how adverse selection risk changes with the intensity and informativeness of order flow, further supporting activity-based clocks for modeling and risk management.
AFML framework : In Advances in Financial Machine Learning , event-driven bars such as volume, dollar, and imbalance bars are presented as superior sampling units for many ML tasks, yielding more stationary features and fewer microstructure distortions than fixed time bars. ( Alpaca )
Practical use cases
1) Regime-aware moving averages
The synthetic SMA in event time is not fooled by quiet periods: if nothing of consequence trades, it barely updates. This can make trend filters less sensitive to calendar drift and more sensitive to true participation.
2) Breakout logic on “equal-information” samples
The script exposes simple alerts such as breakout above/below the synthetic SMA . Because each bar approximates a constant amount of activity, breakouts are conditioned on comparable informational mass, not arbitrary time buckets.
3) Volatility-adaptive backtests
If you use synthetic bars as your base data stream, most signal rules become self-paced : entry and exit opportunities accelerate in fast markets and slow down in quiet regimes, which often improves the realism of slippage and fill modeling in research pipelines (pair this indicator with strategy code downstream).
4) Regime diagnostics
Avg Bars per Sample trending down: activity is dense; expect larger realized ranges.
Return StdDev (synthetic) rising: noise or trend acceleration in event time; re-tune risk.
Interpreting the info panel
Method : your sampling choice and current threshold.
Total Samples : how many synthetic bars have been formed.
Current Vol/Dollar : how much of the next bucket is already filled.
Bars in Bucket : native bars consumed so far in the current bucket.
Avg Bars/Sample : lower means higher trading intensity.
Avg Return / Return StdDev : return stats computed over synthetic closes .
Research directions you can build from here
Imbalance and run bars
Extend beyond pure volume or dollar thresholds to imbalance bars that trigger on directional order flow imbalance (e.g., buy volume minus sell volume), as discussed in the AFML ecosystem. These often further homogenize distributional properties used in ML. alpaca.markets
Volume-time indicators
Re-compute classical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger) on the synthetic stream. The premise is that signals are updated by traded information , not seconds, which may stabilize indicator behavior in heteroskedastic regimes.
Liquidity and toxicity overlays
Combine synthetic bars with proxies of flow toxicity to anticipate spread widening or volatility clustering. For instance, tag synthetic bars that surpass multiples of the threshold and test whether subsequent realized volatility is elevated.
Dollar-risk parity sampling for portfolios
Use dollar bars to align samples across assets by notional risk, enabling cleaner cross-asset features and comparability in multi-asset models (e.g., correlation studies, regime clustering). AFML discusses the benefits of event-driven sampling for cross-sectional ML feature engineering.
Microstructure feature set
Compute duration in native bars per synthetic sample , range per sample , and volume multiple of threshold as inputs to state classifiers or regime HMMs . These features are inherently activity-aware and often predictive of short-horizon volatility and trend persistence per the event-time literature. ( Alpaca )
Tips for clean usage
Start with dynamic thresholds using Median over a sensible lookback to avoid outlier distortion, then move to Fixed thresholds when you know your instrument’s typical activity scale.
Compare time bars vs synthetic bars side by side to develop intuition for how your market “breathes” in activity time.
Keep Max Stored Samples reasonable for performance; the ring buffer avoids memory creep while preserving a rolling window of research-grade data.
Engulfing Pattern Scanner with RSI FilterEngulfing Pattern Scanner with RSI Filter
This indicator identifies high-probability engulfing patterns using multiple confirmation filters including candle stability, RSI divergence, and price momentum over a specified period.
═══ INDICATOR LOGIC ═══
BUY Signal Generated When:
• Bullish engulfing pattern forms
• Candle stability exceeds threshold (body/wick ratio)
• RSI is below oversold threshold
• Price has decreased over the delta period
• Bar is confirmed (no repainting)
SELL Signal Generated When:
• Bearish engulfing pattern forms
• Candle stability exceeds threshold
• RSI is above overbought threshold
• Price has increased over the delta period
• Bar is confirmed (no repainting)
═══ KEY FEATURES ═══
• Candle Stability Index (0-1): Filters out unstable/noisy candles
• RSI Index (0-100): Confirms momentum conditions
• Candle Delta Length: Defines lookback period for price movement
• Disable Repeating Signals: Removes consecutive same-direction signals
• Multiple visual styles: Text bubbles, triangles, or arrows
• Customizable colors and label sizes
• Built-in alert conditions
═══ INPUT PARAMETERS ═══
Candle Stability Index (0.5 default): Higher values require more decisive candles
RSI Index (50 default): Threshold for overbought/oversold conditions
Candle Delta Length (5 default): Bars to measure price change
Label customization: Size, style, and colors
═══ HOW TO USE ═══
1. Add indicator to chart
2. Adjust technical parameters based on market volatility
3. Set visual preferences for signal display
4. Create alerts using the built-in conditions
5. Higher Candle Stability = fewer but higher quality signals
6. Lower RSI Index = more conservative entry points
═══ BEST PRACTICES ═══
• Use on higher timeframes (4H+) for swing trading
• Combine with support/resistance for confluence
• Test parameters on historical data before live trading
• Consider market conditions when adjusting filters
═══ VERSION INFO ═══
Pine Script: v5
Repainting: No (uses barstate.isconfirmed)
Max Labels: 500
```
5MA Color Shift + Dual Fills + Cross Marks + Angle (JA/EN)
Thank you for visiting this page ^^
In short, this indicator simultaneously displays five MAs and has the following features:
- Color shifts are possible when the MAs are pointing up or down. The color shift can be canceled.
- The 1-2 and 3-4 intervals can be filled in. This can also be canceled, and the transparency can be adjusted.
- All MAs can be selected from SMA, EMA, and WMA.
- The angle of any MA can be displayed. In addition, the display can be moved to a certain extent.
- Marking is possible when MAs cross, and this function can also be canceled.
- Alerts can be set when a candle crosses any MA.
- Japanese language is also displayed so that Japanese users can use it.
###Reference###
- MA1 and MA2 are the same color and color shifts depending on whether they are moving up or down.
- MA3 is always displayed in the same color.
- MA4 is not displayed, but the gap between MA3 and MA4 is filled in.
- MA5 is color shifted by the 200MA.
- Marking is performed when MAs cross. This may not be necessary. Many people may feel that color shift is enough.
-Displays angle. It may be better to move this to Top or Bottom.
-Displays RSI and Heikin Ashi simultaneously. I mostly trade with just these settings and it works well.
You may be confused by the number of features, but if you feel that way, I recommend removing some features.
If you have any requests, please leave a comment ^^
RTH Bias by @traderprimezTired of guessing the intraday direction? The RTH Bias indicator provides a powerful, data-driven statistical edge by analyzing the behavior of price after the initial Regular Trading Hours (RTH) range is set.
It meticulously tracks historical outcomes to show you the most probable "story" for the rest of the trading day.
This tool is designed for day traders of US indices, stocks, and other assets most active during the New York session. It moves beyond simple "opening range breakout" strategies by classifying each day into one of six distinct scenarios, giving you a much deeper insight into the day's potential character.
Core Concept
The opening period of the RTH session (e.g., the first one, two, or three hours) is dominated by high volume and institutional activity. The high and low established during this time often act as a critical pivot or springboard for the remainder of the day.
This indicator captures that initial range and then analyzes thousands of historical days to answer the key question: "Once the opening range is set, what happens next?" Does price tend to break out and trend? Does it fake out in one direction and reverse? Or does it stay trapped? The dashboard provides these probabilities at a glance.
Key Features
Choose the range that best fits your trading style and the asset you're trading:
09:30 - 10:30 (Micro): The classic, volatile first hour.
09:30 - 11:30 (Major): A broader range capturing the morning momentum.
09:30 - 12:30 (Macro): The full morning session, often defining the entire day's extremes.
📊 The Statistical Dashboard
This is the heart of the indicator. It provides a complete statistical breakdown of historical price action:
Scenario: The name of the price action profile.
Distribution: A visual bar chart showing the relative frequency of each scenario.
Count: The raw number of times each scenario has occurred over the lookback period.
Contribution: The percentage probability of each scenario occurring.
🎲 The Six Scenarios Explained
The indicator classifies each day's price action into one of these profiles:
↑ High, then ↓ Low (XAMD): A classic "stop hunt high, then sell-off." Price breaks the range high first, luring in buyers, before reversing to take the range low.
↓ Low, then ↑ High (XAMD): A classic "stop hunt low, then rally." Price breaks the range low first, stopping out sellers, before reversing to take the range high.
One-Sided Breakout (AMDX): A strong trend day. Price breaks only one side of the range and continues in that direction without ever violating the other side.
Search & Destroy (S&D): A volatile, choppy day. Price takes one side, reverses to take the other, and then reverses again.
No Breakout (Inside Day): A consolidation day. Price fails to break either the high or the low of the opening range.
🟩 On-Chart Bias Box
A simple visual aid that tracks the session in real-time:
Neutral (Gray): During Session 1, as the range is forming.
Bullish (Green): The Session 1 high has been broken.
Bearish (Red): The Session 1 low has been broken.
Both (Orange): Both the high and low have been broken (XAMD or S&D profile).
🛡️ RTH Guard Logic
This is a crucial feature for accuracy. The indicator locks in the day's scenario at the RTH close (e.g., 4 PM ET). This ensures that post-market (ETH) price action does not corrupt the historical statistics, giving you clean, reliable data based purely on regular trading hours.
🔔 Custom Alerts
Enable the "First Breakout" alert to be notified the moment the opening range is breached, so you don't have to watch the chart all day.
How to Use in Your Trading
This indicator does not give buy/sell signals. It provides a statistical framework to build a high-probability trading hypothesis for the day.
Select Your Range: In the settings, choose the opening range (Micro, Major, or Macro) you want to analyze.
Wait for the Range to Form: Let the neutral box fully form on your chart.
Analyze the Dashboard: Once the range is set, look at the "Contribution" column. Identify the scenario with the highest probability.
Form a Hypothesis: Build your trade idea around the most likely scenario.
Execute and Manage: You would wait for the box to turn red (low is broken). Instead of shorting, you would look for bullish confirmation (e.g., a market structure shift on a lower timeframe) to enter a long position, with the opening range high as a logical target.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for analysis and probability assessment, not a standalone trading system. It should be used in conjunction with your own strategy and risk management. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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Smart Money Concept v1Smart Money Concept Indicator – Visual Interpretation Guide
What Happens When Liquidity Lines Are Broken
🟩 Green Line Broken (Buy-Side Liquidity Pool Swept)
- Indicates price has dipped below a previous swing low where sell stops are likely placed.
- Market Makers may be triggering these stops to accumulate long positions.
- Often followed by a bullish reversal.
- Trader Actions:
• Look for a bullish candle close after the sweep.
• Confirm with nearby Bullish Order Block or Fair Value Gap.
• Consider entering a Buy trade (SLH entry).
- If price continues falling: Indicates trend continuation and invalidation of the buy-side liquidity zone.
🟥 Red Line Broken (Sell-Side Liquidity Pool Swept)
- Indicates price has moved above a previous swing high where buy stops are likely placed.
- Market Makers may be triggering these stops to accumulate short positions.
- Often followed by a bearish reversal.
- Trader Actions:
• Look for a bearish candle close after the sweep.
• Confirm with nearby Bearish Order Block or Fair Value Gap.
• Consider entering a Sell trade (SLH entry).
- If price continues rising: Indicates trend continuation and invalidation of the sell-side liquidity zone.
Chart-Based Interpretation of Green Line Breaks
In the provided DOGE/USD 15-minute chart image:
- Green lines represent buy-side liquidity zones.
- If these lines are broken:
• It may be a stop hunt before a bullish continuation.
• Or a false Break of Structure (BOS) leading to deeper retracement.
- Confirmation is needed from candle structure and nearby OB/FVG zones.
Is the Pink Zone a Valid Bullish Order Block?
To validate the pink zone as a Bullish OB:
- It should be formed by a strong down-close candle followed by a bullish move.
- Price should have rallied from this zone previously.
- If price is now retesting it and showing bullish reaction, it confirms validity.
- If formed during low volume or price never rallied from it, it may not be valid.
Smart Money Concept - Liquidity Line Breaks Explained
This document explains how traders should interpret the breaking of green (buy-side) and red (sell-side) liquidity lines when using the Smart Money Concept indicator. These lines represent key liquidity pools where stop orders are likely placed.
🟩 Green Line Broken (Buy-Side Liquidity Pool Swept)
When the green line is broken, it indicates:
• - Price has dipped below a previous swing low where sell stops were likely placed.
• - Market Makers have triggered those stops to accumulate long positions.
• - This is often followed by a bullish reversal.
Trader Actions:
• - Look for a bullish candle close after the sweep.
• - Confirm with a nearby Bullish Order Block or Fair Value Gap.
• - Consider entering a Buy trade (SLH entry).
🟥 Red Line Broken (Sell-Side Liquidity Pool Swept)
When the red line is broken, it indicates:
• - Price has moved above a previous swing high where buy stops were likely placed.
• - Market Makers have triggered those stops to accumulate short positions.
• - This is often followed by a bearish reversal.
Trader Actions:
• - Look for a bearish candle close after the sweep.
• - Confirm with a nearby Bearish Order Block or Fair Value Gap.
• - Consider entering a Sell trade (SLH entry).
📌 Additional Notes
• - If price continues beyond the liquidity line without reversal, it may indicate a trend continuation rather than a stop hunt.
• - Always confirm with Higher Time Frame bias, Institutional Order Flow, and price reaction at the zone.
Pivot Triangles High/Low (anchored)“It is used to detect price action pivots. You can choose the number of candles before a pivot is marked. It is useful for identifying trends.”
Hummingbird Probability Mapping IndicatorHummingbird Probability Mapping Indicator - A nature inspired indicator that utilizes combinations of the following trend patterns and projects a probability mapping with greater than 70% accuracy based on real-time analysis.
EMA Trend
MACD
RSI
VWAP Spread
Burst
Squeeze
Volatility (ATRp)
Qi Dass
