Leonid's Bitcoin Macro & Liquidity Regime Tracker

4 May

🧠 Macro Overlay Score (Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker)

This indicator combines the most important macroeconomic and on-chain inputs into a single unified score to help investors identify Bitcoin’s long-term cycle phases. Each input is normalized into a 0–100 score and blended using configurable weights to generate a dynamic, forward-looking macro regime tracker.

✅ Best used on the **Bitcoin All Time History Index with Weekly resolution** (`INDEX:BTCUSD`) for maximum historical context and signal clarity.

---

📈 Why Macro?

Macro liquidity conditions — interest rates, monetary expansion, dollar strength, credit risk — drive Bitcoin cycles. Risk assets like BTC thrive during periods of:

• Monetary easing
  
• Liquidity injections
  
• Expansionary central bank policy
  

This overlay surfaces those periods *before* price follows. It captures cycle shifts in the business cycle, monetary policy, and investor sentiment — making it ideal for long-term allocators, macro-aligned investors, and cycle-focused BTC holders.

🔔 This is **not** designed for short-term or swing trading. It is optimized for **macro trend confirmation and regime awareness** — not fast entry/exit signals.

---

🔍 What It Tracks

Macro Inputs:

• - 🏭 ISM 3M Trend (Business Cycle)
  
• - 💹 CPI YoY (Inverted Inflation)
  
• - 💵 M2 YoY + M2 Acceleration
  
• - 🇨🇳 China M2 (Global Liquidity)
  
• - 💱 DXY 3M Trend (USD Strength)
  
• - 🏦 TGA & RRP YoY (Treasury / MMF Flows)
  
• - 🏛 Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
  
• - 💳 High Yield Spread (Credit Conditions)
  
• - 💧 Net Liquidity Composite = WALCL – TGA – RRP
  

On-Chain Inputs:

• - ⚠️ MVRV Ratio (Valuation Cycles)
  
• - 🚀 Mayer Multiple Acceleration (200DMA Momentum)
  

---

🧩 How It Works

Each input is:

• Normalized to a 0–100 score
  
• Weighted by importance (fully configurable)
  
• Combined into a **composite Macro Score**, then normalized across history
  

The chart will display:

• 🔷 A 0–100 **Macro Score Line**
  
• 🧭 **Cycle Phase classification**: Accumulation, Expansion, Distribution, Capitulation
  
• 📊 Optional **debug table** with all sub-scores
  

---

🧠 Interpreting the Signal

| Signal Type | Meaning |
|-------------------|---------------------------------------------|
| Macro Score ↑ | Liquidity improving → Bullish regime forming |
| Macro Score ↓ | Liquidity deteriorating → Caution warranted |
| Score < 40 & Rising | 🔵 Accumulation cycle likely beginning |
| Score > 70 & Falling | 🟡 Distribution / Macro exhaustion |
| Net Liquidity ↑ | Strong driver of BTC upside historically |

---

❓ FAQ

Q: Why did the Macro Score peak in March 2021, but Bitcoin topped in November?
> The indicator reflects **macro liquidity**, not price momentum. M2 growth slowed, DXY bottomed, and the Fed stopped expanding WALCL by Q1 2021 — all signs of macro exhaustion. BTC continued on **residual momentum**, but the smart money began exiting months earlier.

Q: What does the score range mean?
- 0–25: Tight liquidity, unfavorable conditions
- 50: Neutral environment
- 75–100: Strong easing, liquidity surge

Q: Is this good for short-term signals?
> No. This is a **macro-level overlay**, best used for 3–12 month context shifts, not day trades.

Q: Can I adjust the weights?
> Yes. You can tune the influence of each input to match your thesis (e.g., overweight on-chain, or global liquidity).

Q: Do I need special data access?
> No. All symbols are public TradingView datasets (FRED, CryptoCap, etc.). Just use this on a BTC chart like `BTCUSD`.

---

✅ How to Use

• - Load on **`INDEX:BTCUSD`**, set to **Weekly timeframe**
  
• - Confirm long-term bottoms when score is low and rising (Accumulation → Expansion)
  
• - Watch for tops when score is high and falling (Distribution → Capitulation)
  
• - Combine with price structure, realized profit/loss, and market sentiment
  

---

🚀 If you're serious about understanding Bitcoin's macro regime, this is your alpha map. Share it, clone it, and build on it.

24 May

Sürüm Notları

🧠 Macro Overlay Score (Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker)

This indicator combines the most important macroeconomic and on-chain inputs into a single unified score to help investors identify Bitcoin’s long-term cycle phases. Each input is normalized into a 0–100 score and blended using configurable weights to generate a dynamic, forward-looking macro regime tracker.

✅ Best used on the **Bitcoin All Time History Index with Weekly resolution** (`INDEX:BTCUSD`) for maximum historical context and signal clarity.

---

📈 Why Macro?

Macro liquidity conditions — interest rates, monetary expansion, dollar strength, credit risk — drive Bitcoin cycles. Risk assets like BTC thrive during periods of:

Monetary easing
Liquidity injections
Expansionary central bank policy


This overlay surfaces those periods *before* price follows. It captures cycle shifts in the business cycle, monetary policy, and investor sentiment — making it ideal for long-term allocators, macro-aligned investors, and cycle-focused BTC holders.

🔔 This is **not** designed for short-term or swing trading. It is optimized for **macro trend confirmation and regime awareness** — not fast entry/exit signals.

---

🔍 What It Tracks

Macro Inputs:
- 🏭 ISM 3M Trend (Business Cycle)
- 💹 CPI YoY (Inverted Inflation)
- 💵 M2 YoY + M2 Acceleration
- 🇨🇳 China M2 (Global Liquidity)
- 💱 DXY 3M Trend (USD Strength)
- 🏦 TGA & RRP YoY (Treasury / MMF Flows)
- 🏛 Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
- 💳 High Yield Spread (Credit Conditions)
- 💧 Net Liquidity Composite = WALCL – TGA – RRP


On-Chain Inputs:
- ⚠️ MVRV Ratio (Valuation Cycles)
- 🚀 Mayer Multiple Acceleration (200DMA Momentum)


---

🧩 How It Works

Each input is:
Normalized to a 0–100 score
Weighted by importance (fully configurable)
Combined into a **composite Macro Score**, then normalized across history


The chart will display:
🔷 A 0–100 **Macro Score Line**
🧭 **Cycle Phase classification**: Accumulation, Expansion, Distribution, Capitulation
📊 Optional **debug table** with all sub-scores


---

🧠 Interpreting the Signal

| Signal Type | Meaning |
|-------------------|---------------------------------------------|
| Macro Score ↑ | Liquidity improving → Bullish regime forming |
| Macro Score ↓ | Liquidity deteriorating → Caution warranted |
| Score < 40 & Rising | 🔵 Accumulation cycle likely beginning |
| Score > 70 & Falling | 🟡 Distribution / Macro exhaustion |
| Net Liquidity ↑ | Strong driver of BTC upside historically |

---

❓ FAQ

Q: Why did the Macro Score peak in March 2021, but Bitcoin topped in November?
> The indicator reflects **macro liquidity**, not price momentum. M2 growth slowed, DXY bottomed, and the Fed stopped expanding WALCL by Q1 2021 — all signs of macro exhaustion. BTC continued on **residual momentum**, but the smart money began exiting months earlier.

Q: What does the score range mean?
- 0–25: Tight liquidity, unfavorable conditions
- 50: Neutral environment
- 75–100: Strong easing, liquidity surge

Q: Is this good for short-term signals?
> No. This is a **macro-level overlay**, best used for 3–12 month context shifts, not day trades.

Q: Can I adjust the weights?
> Yes. You can tune the influence of each input to match your thesis (e.g., overweight on-chain, or global liquidity).

Q: Do I need special data access?
> No. All symbols are public TradingView datasets (FRED, CryptoCap, etc.). Just use this on a BTC chart like `BTCUSD`.

---

✅ How to Use

- Load on **`INDEX:BTCUSD`**, set to **Weekly timeframe**
- Confirm long-term bottoms when score is low and rising (Accumulation → Expansion)
- Watch for tops when score is high and falling (Distribution → Capitulation)
- Combine with price structure, realized profit/loss, and market sentiment

---

🚀 If you're serious about understanding Bitcoin's macro regime, this is your alpha map. Share it, clone it, and build on it.

---

Changelog
May 24, 2025
- Added `Lead/Lag Offset` feature to shift the macro score forward/backward in time
- Improved normalization of macro inputs
- Minor plot styling adjustments