XPDUSD: Bullish Trend SustainedTechnical Analysis
Trend Structure: Palladium continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel. After a massive 90% rally over the past year, the price has successfully breached the psychological $2,000 mark.
Moving Averages: The price remains positioned well above the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). We are seeing a "Golden Cross" environment that confirms long-term bullish momentum.
Support & Resistance: * Immediate Support: $1,880–$1,920 (former resistance turned support).
Key Resistance: $2,100 (local high) and $2,425 (Fibonacci extension target).
Momentum (RSI): The 14-day RSI is currently hovering around 58–62, suggesting the asset is in a healthy "Buy" zone without being severely overbought yet.
Fundamental Outlook
Supply Deficits: Ongoing trade tensions and potential tariffs on Russian palladium imports (which account for roughly 40% of US supply) are creating a "fear premium" in the market.
Industrial Demand: While EVs are a long-term threat, the slower-than-expected transition and the rise of hybrid vehicles have kept demand for catalytic converters higher than analysts previously forecasted.
Institutional Sentiment: Large banks (like BofA) have recently revised their 2026 price targets upward, citing tight mine supply and "just-in-case" inventory building by industrial users.
Trade Idea: Look for long entries on pullbacks to the $1,920 level. A sustained daily close above $2,100 would open the door for a move toward $2,400.
