Exchange Comparison [Diabolicus]This script helps you compare bitcoin prices across different currency pairs and exchanges. Quickly judge at a glance if "your" exhange currently trades above or below the rest of the market.
Each colored line represents an exchange pair of your choice. Exchange pairs must be entered normalized to USD, so for BTCEUR or XBTEUR multiply by EURUSD, for BTCCNY divide by USDCNH respectively.
Komut dosyalarını "bitcoin" için ara
Exchange Comparison [Diabolicus]This script helps you compare bitcoin prices across different currency pairs and exchanges. Quickly judge at a glance if "your" exhange currently trades above or below the rest of the market.
Each colored line represents an exchange pair of your choice. Exchange pairs must be entered normalized to USD, so for BTCEUR or XBTEUR multiply by EURUSD, for BTCCNY divide by USDCNH respectively.
Bitcoin: Mayer MultipleMayer Multiple Indicator
The Mayer Multiple is a powerful tool designed to help traders assess market conditions and identify optimal buying or selling opportunities. It calculates the ratio between the current price and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), visualizing key thresholds that indicate value zones, caution areas, and overheated markets.
Key Features:
Dynamic Market Zones: Clearly marked levels like "Smash Buy," "Boost DCA," and "Extreme Euphoria" to guide your trading decisions.
Customizable Input: Adjust the SMA length to fit your strategy.
Color-Coded Signals: Intuitive visualization of market sentiment for quick analysis.
Comprehensive Thresholds: Historical insights into price behavior with plotted reference levels based on probabilities.
This indicator is ideal for traders aiming to enhance their long-term strategies and improve decision-making in volatile markets. Use it to gain an edge in identifying potential turning points and managing risk effectively.
Bitcoin Impact AnalyzerSummary of the "Bitcoin Impact Analyzer" script, the adjustments users can make, and an explanation of what the chart and table represent:
Script Summary:
The "Bitcoin Impact Analyzer" script is designed to help traders and analysts understand the relationship between a chosen altcoin and Bitcoin (BTC). It does this by:
Fetching price data for the specified altcoin and Bitcoin.
Calculating several key comparative metrics:
Normalized Prices: Shows the percentage performance of both assets from a common starting point.
Price Correlation: Measures how similarly the two assets' prices move over a defined period.
Beta: Indicates the altcoin's volatility relative to Bitcoin.
Altcoin/BTC Ratio: Shows the altcoin's value expressed in Bitcoin.
Fetching and displaying Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) data.
Visualizing these metrics on the chart as distinct plots.
Displaying the current values of these key metrics in a data table on the chart for quick reference.
The script aims to provide insights into whether an altcoin is outperforming or underperforming Bitcoin, how closely its price movements are tied to Bitcoin's, and its relative volatility.
User Adjustments:
Users can customize the script's behavior through several input settings:
Symbol Inputs:
Altcoin Symbol: Users can enter the ticker symbol for any altcoin they wish to analyze (e.g., BINANCE:ETHUSDT, KUCOIN:SOLUSDT).
Bitcoin Reference Symbol: Users can specify the Bitcoin pair to use as a reference, though BINANCE:BTCUSDT is a common default.
Lookback for Correlation/Beta:
Lookback Period: This integer value (default 50 periods) determines how many past candles are used to calculate the price correlation and beta.
A shorter lookback makes the metrics more sensitive to recent price action.
A longer lookback provides a smoother, more stable indication of the longer-term relationship.
Plot Visibility Options:
Users can toggle on or off the display of each individual plot on the chart:
Normalized BTC & Altcoin Prices
Altcoin/BTC Ratio
Correlation Plot
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
Beta Plot
This allows users to focus on specific metrics and reduce chart clutter.
What the Chart Represents:
The chart visually displays the historical trends and relationships of the selected metrics:
Normalized Prices Plot: Two lines (typically orange for BTC, blue for the altcoin) show the percentage growth of each asset from the start of the loaded chart data (or the first available data point for each symbol). This makes it easy to see which asset has performed better over time on a relative basis.
Correlation Plot: A single line (purple) oscillates between -1 and +1.
Values near +1 indicate a strong positive correlation (altcoin and BTC prices tend to move in the same direction).
Values near -1 indicate a strong negative correlation (they tend to move in opposite directions).
Values near 0 indicate little to no linear relationship.
Lines at +0.7 and -0.7 are often plotted as thresholds for "strong" correlation.
Beta Plot (if enabled): A single line (teal) shows the altcoin's volatility relative to BTC.
A Beta of 1 (often marked by a dashed line) means the altcoin has, on average, the same volatility as BTC.
Beta > 1 suggests the altcoin is more volatile than BTC (moves by a larger percentage for a given BTC move).
Beta < 1 suggests the altcoin is less volatile than BTC.
Bitcoin Dominance Plot: An area plot (gray) shows the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin holds. This helps understand broader market sentiment and capital flows.
Altcoin/BTC Ratio Plot: A line (fuchsia) shows the price of the altcoin denominated in BTC.
An upward trend means the altcoin is gaining value against Bitcoin (outperforming).
A downward trend means the altcoin is losing value against Bitcoin (underperforming).
What the Table Represents:
The data table, typically located in the bottom-right corner of the chart, provides a snapshot of the current values for the most important calculated metrics. It includes:
Altcoin: The ticker symbol of the analyzed altcoin.
Bitcoin Ref: The ticker symbol of the Bitcoin reference.
Correlation (lookback): The current correlation coefficient between the altcoin and BTC, based on the specified lookback period. The value is color-coded (e.g., green for strong positive, red for strong negative).
Beta (lookback): The current beta value of the altcoin relative to BTC, based on the specified lookback period. The value may be color-coded to highlight significantly high or low volatility.
BTC.D Current: The current Bitcoin Dominance percentage.
ALT/BTC Ratio: The current price of the altcoin expressed in Bitcoin.
The table offers a quick, at-a-glance summary of the present market dynamics between the two assets without needing to interpret the lines on the chart for their exact current values.
Bitcoin Cycle Master [InvestorUnknown]The "Bitcoin Cycle Master" indicator is designed for in-depth, long-term analysis of Bitcoin's price cycles, using several key metrics to track market behavior and forecast potential price tops and bottoms. The indicator integrates multiple moving averages and on-chain metrics, offering a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s historical and projected performance. Each of its components plays a crucial role in identifying critical cycle points:
Top Cap: This is a multiple of the Average Cap, which is calculated as the cumulative sum of Bitcoin’s price (price has a longer history than Market Cap) divided by its age in days. Top Cap serves as an upper boundary for speculative price peaks, multiplied by a factor of 35.
Time_dif() =>
date = ta.valuewhen(bar_index == 0, time, 0)
sec_r = math.floor(date / 1000)
min_r = math.floor(sec_r / 60)
h_r = math.floor(min_r / 60)
d_r = math.floor(h_r / 24)
// Launch of BTC
start = timestamp(2009, 1, 3, 00, 00)
sec_rb = math.floor(start / 1000)
min_rb = math.floor(sec_rb / 60)
h_rb = math.floor(min_rb / 60)
d_rb = math.floor(h_rb / 24)
difference = d_r - d_rb
AverageCap() =>
ta.cum(btc_price) / (Time_dif() + btc_age)
TopCap() =>
// To calculate Top Cap, it is first necessary to calculate Average Cap, which is the cumulative sum of Market Cap divided by the age of the market in days.
// This creates a constant time-based moving average of market cap.
// Once Average cap is calculated, those values are multiplied by 35. The result is Top Cap.
// For AverageCap the BTC price was used instead of the MC because it has more history
// (the result should have minimal if any deviation since MC would have to be divided by Supply)
AverageCap() * 35
Delta Top: Defined as the difference between the Realized Cap and the Average Cap, this metric is further multiplied by a factor of 7. Delta Top provides a historically reliable signal for Bitcoin market cycle tops.
DeltaTop() =>
// Delta Cap = Realized Cap - Average Cap
// Average Cap is explained in the Top Cap section above.
// Once Delta Cap is calculated, its values over time are then multiplied by 7. The result is Delta Top.
(RealizedPrice() - AverageCap()) * 7
Terminal Price: Derived from Coin Days Destroyed, Terminal Price normalizes Bitcoin’s historical price behavior by its finite supply (21 million bitcoins), offering an adjusted price forecast as all bitcoins approach being mined. The original formula for Terminal Price didn’t produce expected results, hence the calculation was adjusted slightly.
CVDD() =>
// CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed.
// Coin Days Destroyed is a term used for bitcoin to identify a value of sorts to UTXO’s (unspent transaction outputs). They can be thought of as coins moving between wallets.
(MCR - TV) / 21000000
TerminalPrice() =>
// Theory:
// Before Terminal price is calculated, it is first necessary to calculate Transferred Price.
// Transferred price takes the sum of > Coin Days Destroyed and divides it by the existing supply of bitcoin and the time it has been in circulation.
// The value of Transferred Price is then multiplied by 21. Remember that there can only ever be 21 million bitcoin mined.
// This creates a 'terminal' value as the supply is all mined, a kind of reverse supply adjustment.
// Instead of heavily weighting later behavior, it normalizes historical behavior to today. By normalizing by 21, a terminal value is created
// Unfortunately the theoretical calculation didn't produce results it should, in pinescript.
// Therefore the calculation was slightly adjusted/improvised
TransferredPrice = CVDD() / (Supply * math.log(btc_age))
tp = TransferredPrice * 210000000 * 3
Realized Price: Calculated as the Market Cap Realized divided by the current supply of Bitcoin, this metric shows the average value of Bitcoin based on the price at which coins last moved, giving a market consensus price for long-term holders.
CVDD (Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed): This on-chain metric analyzes Bitcoin’s UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) and the velocity of coins moving between wallets. It highlights key market dynamics during prolonged accumulation or distribution phases.
Balanced Price: The Balanced Price is the difference between the Realized Price and the Terminal Price, adjusted by Bitcoin's supply constraints. This metric provides a useful signal for identifying oversold market conditions during bear markets.
BalancedPrice() =>
// It is calculated by subtracting Transferred Price from Realized Price
RealizedPrice() - (TerminalPrice() / (21 * 3))
Each component can be toggled individually, allowing users to focus on specific aspects of Bitcoin’s price cycle and derive meaningful insights from its long-term behavior. The combination of these models provides a well-rounded view of both speculative peaks and long-term value trends.
Important consideration:
Top Cap did historically provide reliable signals for cycle peaks, however it may not be a relevant indication of peaks in the future.
Bitcoin Wave RainbowThis Bitcoin Wave Rainbow model is a powerful tool designed to help traders of all levels understand and navigate the Bitcoin market. It works only with BTC in any timeframe, but better looks in dayly or weekly timeframes. It provides valuable insights into historical price behavior and offers forecasts for the next decade, making it an essential asset for both short-term and long-term strategies.
How the Model Works
The model is built on a logarithmic trend, also known as a power law, represented by the green line on the chart. This line illustrates the expected price trajectory of Bitcoin over time. The model also incorporates a range of price fluctuations around this trend, represented by colored bands.
The width of these bands narrows over time, indicating that the model becomes increasingly accurate as it progresses. This is due to the exponential decrease in the range of price fluctuations, making the model a reliable tool for predicting future price movements.
Understanding the Zones
Blue Zone: This zone signifies that the price is below its trend, making it a recommended area for buying Bitcoin. It represents a level where the price is unlikely to fall further, providing a potential opportunity for accumulation.
Green Zone: This zone represents a fair price range, where the price is relatively close to its trend. In this zone, the price may continue to go up or down, depending on the halving season. ransiting up around any halving and transiting down around 2 years after each halving.
Yellow Zone: This zone indicates that the price is somewhat overheated, often due to the hype following a halving event. While there may still be room for the price to rise, traders should exercise caution in this zone, as a price correction could occur.
Red Zone: This zone represents a strong overbought condition, where the price is significantly above its trend. Traders should be extremely cautious in this zone and consider reducing their positions, as the price is likely to revert back towards the trend or even lower.
Using the Model in Your Trading Strategy
This indicator can be used in conjunction with the Bitcoin Wave Model, which complements it by showing harmonic price fluctuations associated with halving events. Together, these indicators provide a comprehensive view of the Bitcoin market, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on both historical data and future projections.
Benefits for Traders
This Bitcoin price model offers numerous benefits for traders, including:
Clear Visualization: The model provides a clear and concise visual representation of Bitcoin's price behavior, making it easy to understand and interpret.
Accurate Forecasting: The model's accuracy increases over time, providing reliable forecasts for future price movements.
Risk Management: The model helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions, allowing them to manage their risk more effectively.
Strategic Decision-Making: By understanding the different zones and their implications, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy, sell, or hold Bitcoin.
By incorporating this Bitcoin price model into your trading strategy, you can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and improve your chances of success.
Bitcoin S2F(X)This indicator shows the BTCUSD price based on the S2F Model by PlanB.
We can see not only the S2F(Stock-to-Flow) but also the S2FX(Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset) model announced in 2020.
█ Overview
In this model, bitcoin is treated as comparable to commodities such as gold .
These commodities are known as "store of value" commodities because they retain their value over time due to their relative scarcity.
Bitcoins are scarce.
The number of coins in existence is limited, and the rate of supply is at an all-time low because mining the 2.2 million outstanding coins that have yet to be mined requires a lot of power and computing power.
The Stock-to-flow ratio is used to evaluate the current stock of a commodity (the total amount currently available) versus the flow of new production (the amount mined in a given year).
The higher this ratio, the more scarce the commodity is and the more valuable it is as a store of value.
█ How To View
On the above chart price is overlaid on top of the S2F(X) line. We can see that price has continued to follow the stock-to-flow of Bitcoin over time. By observing the S2F(X) line, we can expect to be able to predict where the price will go.
The coloured circles on the price line of this chart show the number of days until the next Bitcoin halving event. This is an event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur every 210,000 blocks until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network. That makes stock-to-flow ratio (scarcity) higher so in theory price should go up.
The stock-to-flow line on this chart incorporates a 463-day average into the model to smooth out the changes caused in the market by the halving events.
I recommend using this indicator on a weekly or monthly basis for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD .
█ Reference Script
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Multiple by yomofoV
Bitcoin Risk Indicator v2Based on the work of Ben Cowen on Youtube. I can't link to the video due to TradingView promotion rules.
Bitcoin Total VolumeThis Pine Script indicator, titled "Bitcoin Top 16 Volume," is designed to provide traders with an aggregate view of Bitcoin (BTC) spot trading volume across leading cryptocurrency exchanges. Unlike traditional volume indicators that focus on a single exchange, this tool compiles data from a selection of the top exchanges as ranked by CoinMarketCap, offering a broader perspective on overall market activity.
The indicator works by fetching real-time volume data for specific BTC trading pairs on various exchanges. It currently incorporates data from prominent platforms such as Binance (BTCUSDT), Coinbase (BTCUSD), OKX (BTCUSDT), Bybit (BTCUSDT), Kraken (BTCUSD), Bitfinex (BTCUSD), Bitstamp (BTCUSD), Gemini (BTCUSD), Upbit (BTCKRW), Bithumb (BTCKRW), KuCoin (BTCUSDT), Gate.io (BTCUSDT), MEXC (BTCUSDT), Crypto.com (BTCUSD), Poloniex (BTCUSDT), and BitMart (BTCUSDT). It's important to note that while the indicator aims to represent the "Top 16" exchanges, the actual number included may vary due to data availability within TradingView and the dynamic nature of exchange rankings.
The script then calculates the total volume by summing up the volume data retrieved from each of these exchanges. This aggregated volume is visually represented as a histogram directly on your TradingView chart, displayed in white by default. By observing the height of the histogram bars, traders can quickly assess the total trading volume for Bitcoin spot markets over different time periods, corresponding to the chart's timeframe.
This indicator is valuable for traders seeking to understand the overall market depth and liquidity of Bitcoin. Increased total volume can often signal heightened market interest and potential trend strength or reversals. Conversely, low volume might suggest consolidation or reduced market participation. Traders can use this indicator to confirm trends, identify potential breakouts, and gauge the general level of activity in the Bitcoin spot market across major exchanges. Keep in mind that the list of exchanges included may need periodic updates to accurately reflect the top exchanges as rankings on CoinMarketCap evolve.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression BandsOverview
This indicator displays logarithmic regression bands for Bitcoin. Logarithmic regression is a statistical method used to model data where growth slows down over time. I initially created these bands in 2019 using a spreadsheet, and later coded them in TradingView in 2021. Over time, the bands proved effective at capturing Bitcoin's bull market peaks and bear market lows. In 2024, I decided to share this indicator because I believe these logarithmic regression bands offer the best fit for the Bitcoin chart.
How It Works
The logarithmic regression lines are fitted to the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). The two lines in the upper and lower bands share the same 'a' factor, but I adjust the 'b' factor by 0.2 to more accurately capture the bull market peaks and bear market lows. The formula for logaritmic regression is 10^((a * ln) - b).
How to Use the Logarithmic Regression Bands
1. Lower Band (Support Band):
The two lines in the lower band create a potential support area for Bitcoin’s price. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has always found its lows within this band during past market cycles. When the price is within the lower band, it suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued and could be set for a rebound.
2. Upper Band (Resistance Band):
The two lines in the upper band create a potential resistance area for Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin has consistently reached its highs in this band during previous market cycles. If the price is within the upper band, it indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued, and a potential price correction may be imminent.
Use Cases
- Price Bottoming:
Bitcoin tends to bottom out at the lower band before entering a prolonged bull market or a period of sideways movement.
- Price Topping:
In reverse, Bitcoin tends to top out at the upper band before entering a bear market phase.
- Profitable Strategy:
Buying at the lower band and selling at the upper band can be a profitable trading strategy, as these bands often indicate key price levels for Bitcoin’s market cycles.
Bitcoin Exponential Profit Strategy### Strategy Description:
The **Bitcoin Trading Strategy** is an **Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover strategy** designed to identify bullish trends for Bitcoin.
1. **Indicators**:
- **Fast EMA (default 9 periods)**: Represents the short-term trend.
- **Slow EMA (default 21 periods)**: Represents the longer-term trend.
2. **Entry Condition**:
- A **bullish crossover** occurs when the Fast EMA crosses above the Slow EMA.
- The strategy enters a **long position** with a user-defined order size (default 0.01 BTC).
3. **Exit Conditions**:
- **Take Profit**: Closes the position when the profit target is reached (default $100).
- **Stop Loss**: Closes the position when the price drops below the stop loss level (default $50).
- **Bearish Crossunder**: Closes the position when the Fast EMA crosses below the Slow EMA.
4. **Visual Signals**:
- **BUY signals**: Displayed when a bullish crossover occurs.
- **SELL signals**: Displayed when a bearish crossunder occurs.
This strategy is optimized for trend-following behavior, ensuring positions are aligned with upward-moving trends while managing risk through clear stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Bitcoin Macro Trend Map [Ox_kali]
## Introduction
__________________________________________________________________________________
The “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” script is designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s macroeconomic trends. By leveraging a unique combination of Bitcoin-specific macroeconomic indicators, this script helps traders identify potential market peaks and troughs with greater accuracy. It synthesizes data from multiple sources to offer a probabilistic view of market excesses, whether overbought or oversold conditions.
This script offers significant value for the following reasons:
1. Holistic Market Analysis : It integrates a diverse set of indicators that cover various aspects of the Bitcoin market, from investor sentiment and market liquidity to mining profitability and network health. This multi-faceted approach provides a more complete picture of the market than relying on a single indicator.
2. Customization and Flexibility : Users can customize the script to suit their specific trading strategies and preferences. The script offers configurable parameters for each indicator, allowing traders to adjust settings based on their analysis needs.
3. Visual Clarity : The script plots all indicators on a single chart with clear visual cues. This includes color-coded indicators and background changes based on market conditions, making it easy for traders to quickly interpret complex data.
4. Proven Indicators : The script utilizes well-established indicators like the EMA, NUPL, PUELL Multiple, and Hash Ribbons, which are widely recognized in the trading community for their effectiveness in predicting market movements.
5. A New Comprehensive Indicator : By integrating background color changes based on the aggregate signals of various indicators, this script essentially creates a new, comprehensive indicator tailored specifically for Bitcoin. This visual representation provides an immediate overview of market conditions, enhancing the ability to spot potential market reversals.
Optimal for use on timeframes ranging from 1 day to 1 week , the “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” provides traders with actionable insights, enhancing their ability to make informed decisions in the highly volatile Bitcoin market. By combining these indicators, the script delivers a robust tool for identifying market extremes and potential reversal points.
## Key Indicators
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macroeconomic Data: The script combines several relevant macroeconomic indicators for Bitcoin, such as the 10-month EMA, M2 money supply, CVDD, Pi Cycle, NUPL, PUELL, MRVR Z-Scores, and Hash Ribbons (Full description bellow).
Open Source Sources: Most of the scripts used are sourced from open-source projects that I have modified to meet the specific needs of this script.
Recommended Timeframes: For optimal performance, it is recommended to use this script on timeframes ranging from 1 day to 1 week.
Objective: The primary goal is to provide a probabilistic solution to identify market excesses, whether overbought or oversold points.
## Originality and Purpose
__________________________________________________________________________________
This script stands out by integrating multiple macroeconomic indicators into a single comprehensive tool. Each indicator is carefully selected and customized to provide insights into different aspects of the Bitcoin market. By combining these indicators, the script offers a holistic view of market conditions, helping traders identify potential tops and bottoms with greater accuracy. This is the first version of the script, and additional macroeconomic indicators will be added in the future based on user feedback and other inputs.
## How It Works
__________________________________________________________________________________
The script works by plotting each macroeconomic indicator on a single chart, allowing users to visualize and interpret the data easily. Here’s a detailed look at how each indicator contributes to the analysis:
EMA 10 Monthly: Uses an exponential moving average over 10 monthly periods to signal bullish and bearish trends. This indicator helps identify long-term trends in the Bitcoin market by smoothing out price fluctuations to reveal the underlying trend direction.Moving Averages w/ 18 day/week/month.
Credit to @ryanman0
M2 Money Supply: Analyzes the evolution of global money supply, indicating market liquidity conditions. This indicator tracks the changes in the total amount of money available in the economy, which can impact Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against inflation or economic instability.
Credit to @dylanleclair
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed): An indicator based on the cumulative value of days destroyed, useful for identifying market turning points. This metric helps assess the Bitcoin market’s health by evaluating the age and value of coins that are moved, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment.
Credit to @Da_Prof
Pi Cycle: Uses simple and exponential moving averages to detect potential sell points. This indicator aims to identify cyclical peaks in Bitcoin’s price, providing signals for potential market tops.
Credit to @NoCreditsLeft
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Measures investors’ unrealized profit or loss to signal extreme market levels. This indicator shows the net profit or loss of Bitcoin holders as a percentage of the market cap, helping to identify periods of significant market optimism or pessimism.
Credit to @Da_Prof
PUELL Multiple: Assesses mining profitability relative to historical averages to indicate buying or selling opportunities. This indicator compares the daily issuance value of Bitcoin to its yearly average, providing insights into when the market is overbought or oversold based on miner behavior.
Credit to @Da_Prof
MRVR Z-Scores: Compares market value to realized value to identify overbought or oversold conditions. This metric helps gauge the overall market sentiment by comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, identifying potential reversal points.
Credit to @Pinnacle_Investor
Hash Ribbons: Uses hash rate variations to signal buying opportunities based on miner capitulation and recovery. This indicator tracks the health of the Bitcoin network by analyzing hash rate trends, helping to identify periods of miner capitulation and subsequent recoveries as potential buying opportunities.
Credit to @ROBO_Trading
## Indicator Visualization and Interpretation
__________________________________________________________________________________
For each horizontal line representing an indicator, a legend is displayed on the right side of the chart. If the conditions are positive for an indicator, it will turn green, indicating the end of a bearish trend. Conversely, if the conditions are negative, the indicator will turn red, signaling the end of a bullish trend.
The background color of the chart changes based on the average of green or red indicators. This parameter is configurable, allowing adjustment of the threshold at which the background color changes, providing a clear visual indication of overall market conditions.
## Script Parameters
__________________________________________________________________________________
The script includes several configurable parameters to customize the display and behavior of the indicators:
Color Style:
Normal: Default colors.
Modern: Modern color style.
Monochrome: Monochrome style.
User: User-customized colors.
Custom color settings for up trends (Up Trend Color), down trends (Down Trend Color), and NaN (NaN Color)
Background Color Thresholds:
Thresholds: Settings to define the thresholds for background color change.
Low/High Red Threshold: Low and high thresholds for bearish trends.
Low/High Green Threshold: Low and high thresholds for bullish trends.
Indicator Display:
Options to show or hide specific indicators such as EMA 10 Monthly, CVDD, Pi Cycle, M2 Money, NUPL, PUELL, MRVR Z-Scores, and Hash Ribbons.
Specific Indicator Settings:
EMA 10 Monthly: Options to customize the period for the exponential moving average calculation.
M2 Money: Aggregation of global money supply data.
CVDD: Adjustments for value normalization.
Pi Cycle: Settings for simple and exponential moving averages.
NUPL: Thresholds for unrealized profit/loss values.
PUELL: Adjustments for mining profitability multiples.
MRVR Z-Scores: Settings for overbought/oversold values.
Hash Ribbons: Options for hash rate moving averages and capitulation/recovery signals.
## Conclusion
__________________________________________________________________________________
The “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” by Ox_kali is a tool designed to analyze the Bitcoin market. By combining several macroeconomic indicators, this script helps identify market peaks and troughs. It is recommended to use it on timeframes from 1 day to 1 week for optimal trend analysis. The scripts used are sourced from open-source projects, modified to suit the specific needs of this analysis.
## Notes
__________________________________________________________________________________
This is the first version of the script and it is still in development. More indicators will likely be added in the future. Feedback and comments are welcome to improve this tool.
## Disclaimer:
__________________________________________________________________________________
Please note that the Open Interest liquidation map is not a guarantee of future market performance and should be used in conjunction with proper risk management. Always ensure that you have a thorough understanding of the indicator’s methodology and its limitations before making any investment decisions. Additionally, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
This indicator displays logarithmic regression channels for Bitcoin. A logarithmic regression is a function that increases or decreases rapidly at first, but then steadily slows as time moves. The original version of this indicator/model was created as an open source script by a user called Owain but is not available on TradingView anymore. So I decided to update the code to the latest version of pinescript and fine tune some of the parameters.
How to read and use the logarithmic regression:
There are 3 different regression lines or channels visible:
Green Channel: These lines represent different levels of support derived from the logarithmic regression model.
Purpose: The green channel is used to identify potential support levels where the price might find a bottom or bounce back upwards.
Interpretation:
If the price is approaching or touching the lower green lines, it might indicate a buying opportunity or an area where the price is considered undervalued.
------------------------------------------------
Red Channel: These lines represent different levels of resistance derived from the logarithmic regression model.
Purpose: The red channel is used to identify potential resistance levels where the price might encounter selling pressure or face difficulty moving higher.
Interpretation:
If the price is approaching or touching the upper red lines, it might indicate a selling opportunity or an area where the price is considered overvalued.
-------------------------------------------------
Purple Line This line represents to so-called "fair price" of Bitcoin according to the regression model.
Purpose: The purple line can be used to identify if the current price of Bitcoin is under- or overvalued.
Interpretation: A simple interpretation here would be that over time the price will have the tendency to always return to its "fair price", so starting to DCA more when price is under the line and less when it is over the line could be a suitable investment strategy.
----------------------------------------------------
Practical Application:
You can use this regression channel to build your own, long term, trading strategies. Notice how Bitcoin seems to always act in kind of the same 4 year cycle:
- Price likes to trade around the purple line at the time of the halvings
- After the halvings we see an extended sideways range for up to 300 days
- After the sideways range Bitcoin goes into a bull market frenzy (the area between the green and red channel)
- The price tops out at the upper red channel and then enters a prolonged bear market.
Buying around the purple line or lower line of the green channel and selling once the price reaches the red channel can be a suitable and very profitable strategy.
Bitcoin Halving Dates + CountdownBitcoin Halving Dates + Countdown Indicator
This unique TradingView Indicator is designed to provide traders and cryptocurrency enthusiasts with critical information about the Bitcoin halving events directly on their charts. Bitcoin halving is a significant event that reduces the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions by half, an occurrence that happens approximately every four years and is known to impact Bitcoin's price significantly.
Features:
▪ Halving Date Lines: The indicator plots vertical lines on the chart at the dates of past and the upcoming Bitcoin halving events.
Customizable Appearance: Users can personalize the look of the indicator with options to change the color of the halving lines, label background, and text for better visibility against their chart theme.
▪ Halving Event Labels: Each halving event is marked with a label indicating its sequence (e.g., 1st Halving) and the exact date it occurred or is expected to occur.
Countdown to Next Halving: For the upcoming halving event, the indicator displays a countdown in days, hours, minutes, and seconds, helping users anticipate the event with precise timing.
▪ User-friendly Options: Toggle the visibility of labels for a cleaner chart appearance and customize color schemes to match personal preferences or chart themes.
Usage:
This indicator is invaluable for those looking to understand Bitcoin's historical halving events and their timing in relation to price movements. It's also perfect for preparing for the next halving event, as the countdown feature provides a clear and timely reminder.
Customization Options:
▪ Show Labels: Toggle on/off the visibility of halving event labels.
Line Color: Choose the color of the vertical lines marking each halving event.
Label Background Color & Text Color: Customize the background and text color of the labels for better readability.
▪ Countdown Label Colors: Separate customization options for the countdown label's background and text colors, allowing for clear visibility and distinction from other chart elements.
Enhance your chart with this indicator and trade with more context and anticipation towards the future of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's Logarithmic ChannelLogarithmic growth is a reasonable way to describe the long term growth of bitcoin's market value: for a network that is experiencing growing adoption and is powered by an asset with a finite and disinflationary supply, it’s natural to expect a more explosive growth of its market capitalization early on, followed by diminishing returns as the network and the asset mature.
I used publicly available data to model the market capitalization of bitcoin, deriving thereform a set of three curves forming a logarithmic growth channel for the market capitalization of bitcoin. Using the time series for the circulating supply, we derive a logarithmic growth channel for the bitcoin price.
Model uses publicly available data from July 17, 2010 to December 31, 2022. Everything since the beginning of 2023 is a prediction.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Bitcoin Price Based On ElectricityThis script Calculates the price of Bitcoin solely on the hashrate and the cost of electricity.
The calculation is quite conservative considering its based on the average cost of electricity globally and we are assuming that everyone is running the latest mining hardware, which is the most efficient and cost effective.
Under both of these assumptions the calculation for bitcoins price is almost identical to the price we are seeing now.
If we change the reward rate to 3.125 (Aprils reward amount) then the price of one bitcoin per cost of work will be around 100k.
I am sure I am missing some important numbers in this calculation, fees, start up costs etc. However, it is very interesting to see that the price of Bitcoin can be calculated almost perfectly based on the hashrate and cost of electricity.
PROOF OF WORK
BDC - Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance Change [Logue]Bitcoin Dominance Change. Interesting things tend to happen when the Bitcoin dominance increases or decreases rapidly. Perhaps because there is overexuberance in the market in either BTC or the alts. In back testing, I found a rapid 13-day change in dominance indicates interesting switches in the BTC trends. Prior to 2019, the indicator doesn't work as well to signal trend shifts (i.e., local tops and bottoms) likely based on very few coins making up the crypto market.
The BTC dominance change is calculated as a percentage change of the daily dominance. You are able to change the upper bound, lower bound, and the period (daily) of the indicator to your own preferences. The indicator going above the upper bound or below the lower bound will trigger a different background color.
Use this indicator at your own risk. I make no claims as to its accuracy in forecasting future trend changes of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Cycles IndicatorBitcoin Cycles Indicator
The "Bitcoin Cycles Indicator" is designed to provide insights into the current market cycle of Bitcoin. It utilizes a combination of market cap real and total volume transfer to generate a visual representation of the market cycle.
Indicator Phases:
Cycle Lows (Green): Indicates potential low points in the cycle.
Under Valued (Aqua): Represents phases where Bitcoin might be undervalued.
Fair Market Value (Purple): Reflects periods considered to be at fair market value.
Aggressively Valued (Orange): Marks phases where Bitcoin might be aggressively valued.
Over Valued (Red): Suggests potential overvaluation of Bitcoin in the cycle.
Bitcoin Cycles can identify periods of increased risk when transaction behavior on-chain is indicative of major cycle highs. It also identifies areas of value opportunity where on-chain transaction behavior signals major cycle lows.
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited cyclical behavior roughly every four years, coinciding with significant events known as "halvings."
While the historical correlation between Bitcoin's cycles and halving events is compelling, market dynamics are subject to change. Traders and investors should approach the market with a comprehensive strategy, incorporating multiple indicators and risk management techniques to navigate Bitcoin's evolving landscape.
Bitcoin Market Cap wave model weeklyThis Bitcoin Market Cap wave model indicator is rooted in the foundation of my previously developed tool, the : Bitcoin wave model
To derive the Total Market Cap from the Bitcoin wave price model, I employed a straightforward estimation for the Total Market Supply (TMS). This estimation relies on the formula:
TMS <= (1 - 2^(-h)) for any h.This equation holds true for any value of h, which will be elaborated upon shortly. It is important to note that this inequality becomes the equality at the dates of halvings, diverging only slightly during other periods.
Bitcoin wave model is based on the logarithmic regression model and the sinusoidal waves, induced by the halving events.
This chart presents the outcome of an in-depth analysis of the complete set of Bitcoin price data available from October 2009 to August 2023.
The central concept is that the logarithm of the Bitcoin price closely adheres to the logarithmic regression model. If we plot the logarithm of the price against the logarithm of time, it forms a nearly straight line.
The parameters of this model are provided in the script as follows: log(BTCUSD) = 1.48 + 5.44log(h).
The secondary concept involves employing the inherent time unit of Bitcoin instead of days:
'h' denotes a slightly adjusted time measurement intrinsic to the Bitcoin blockchain. It can be approximated as (days since the genesis block) * 0.0007. Precisely, 'h' is defined as follows: h = 0 at the genesis block, h = 1 at the first halving block, and so forth. In general, h = block height / 210,000.
Adjustments are made to account for variations in block creation time.
The third concept revolves around investigating halving waves triggered by supply shock events resulting from the halvings. These halvings occur at regular intervals in Bitcoin's native time 'h'. All halvings transpire when 'h' is an integer. These events induce waves with intervals denoted as h = 1.
Consequently, we can model these waves using a sin(2pih - a) function. The parameter determining the time shift is assessed as 'a = 0.4', aligning with earlier expectations for halving events and their subsequent outcomes.
The fourth concept introduces the notion that the waves gradually diminish in amplitude over the progression of "time h," diminishing at a rate of 0.7^h.
Lastly, we can create bands around the modeled sinusoidal waves. The upper band is derived by multiplying the sine wave by a factor of 3.1*(1-0.16)^h, while the lower band is obtained by dividing the sine wave by the same factor, 3.1*(1-0.16)^h.
The current bandwidth is 2.5x. That means that the upper band is 2.5 times the lower band. These bands are forming an exceptionally narrow predictive channel for Bitcoin. Consequently, a highly accurate estimation of the peak of the next cycle can be derived.
The prediction indicates that the zenith past the fourth halving, expected around the summer of 2025, could result in Total Bitcoin Market Cap ranging between 4B and 5B USD.
The projections to the future works well only for weekly timeframe.
Enjoy the mathematical insights!
BITCOIN Miners Revenue VS Price Correlation OscillatorUse 3D(3-day candle) as timeframe for best reading.
------
original template for Correlation indicator was created by obaranova. credit goes to her.
GetTrendStrategy 370 30 minModificación de la estrategia “GetTrendStrategy” optimizada para Bitcoin.
Exponential Bollinger BandsThese Bollinger Bands are exponential because the variance is calculated using the exponential moving average, rather than just adding the normal standard deviation to the ema. This may be more useful because the exponential standard deviation should be more sensitive to near term increases or decreases in volatility.
Please do not forget that Bollinger Bands should always be combined with another method of analysis. Bollinger Bands just provide an easy way to gauge where the price could range in. At 2 standard deviations of a continuously random variable, more than 98% of data points are in this range. I am however going to test this in excel to get the average number of data points that stay in the range for Bitcoin. I will upload my findings when I complete that. Please monitor this description if your interested.
Bitcoin NUPL IndicatorThe Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) Indicator is a powerful metric that shows the difference between Bitcoin's market cap and realized cap as a percentage of market cap. This indicator helps identify different market cycle phases, from capitulation to euphoria.
// How It Works
NUPL measures the aggregate profit or loss held by Bitcoin investors, calculated as:
```
NUPL = ((Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap) * 100
```
// Market Cycle Phases
The indicator automatically color-codes different market phases:
• **Deep Red (< 0%)**: Capitulation Phase - Most coins held at a loss, historically excellent buying opportunities
• **Orange (0-25%)**: Hope & Fear Phase - Early accumulation, price uncertainty and consolidation
• **Yellow (25-50%)**: Optimism & Anxiety Phase - Emerging bull market, increasing confidence
• **Light Green (50-75%)**: Belief & Denial Phase - Strong bull market, high conviction
• **Bright Green (> 75%)**: Euphoria & Greed Phase - Potential market top, historically good profit-taking zone
// Features
• Real-time NUPL calculation with customizable smoothing
• RSI indicator for additional momentum confirmation
• Color-coded background reflecting current market phase
• Reference lines marking key transition zones
• Detailed metrics table showing NUPL value, market sentiment, market cap, realized cap, and RSI
// Strategy Applications
• **Long-term investors**: Use extreme negative NUPL values (deep red) to identify potential bottoms for accumulation
• **Swing traders**: Look for transitions between phases for potential trend changes
• **Risk management**: Consider taking profits when entering the "Euphoria & Greed" phase (bright green)
• **Mean reversion**: Watch for overbought/oversold conditions when NUPL reaches historical extremes
// Settings
• **RSI Length**: Adjusts the period for RSI calculation
• **NUPL Smoothing Length**: Applies moving average smoothing to reduce noise
// Notes
• Premium TradingView subscription required for Glassnode and Coin Metrics data
• Best viewed on daily timeframes for macro analysis
• Historical NUPL extremes have often marked cycle bottoms and tops
• Use in conjunction with other indicators for confirmation
