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SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years "A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market." assets.bwbx.io In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield. "His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below): In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history." Sources: papers.ssrn.com www.bloomberg.com The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com Best, JM
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JM tarafından
2
Outlier Detector with N-Sigma Confidence IntervalsA detrended series that oscilates around zero is obtained after first differencing a time series (i.e. subtracting the closing price for a candle from the one immediately before, for example). Hypothetically, assuming that every detrended closing price is independent of each other (what might not be true!), these values will follow a normal distribution with mean zero and unknown variance sigma squared (assuming equal variance, what is also probably not true as volatility changes over time for different pairs). After studentizing, they follow a Student's t-distribution, but as the sample size increases (back periods > 30, at least), they follow a standard normal distribution. This script was developed for personal use and the idea is spotting candles that are at least 99% bigger than average (using N = 3) as they will cross the upper and lower confidence interval limits. N = 2 would roughly provide a 95% confidence interval.
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tvjvzl tarafından
14
Value RangeHere is another attempt to chase value based on technical analysis. This is extended version of PE range script published earlier. Instead of just PE, this script contains several other factors which defines value. You can chose which factor to look at from input dialog: Possible value factors included in this script are: Price to Earnings Price to Sales Price to Book PE - Forwarding PS - Forwarding Price to Cashflow Enterprise Value to EBITDA Enterprise Value to Cashflow Some of these can be added to chart directly from financials. But, the script also calculate range based on donchian channel or bollinger bands. Instead of short periods, we are looking for periods in terms of years. Rest of things remain same.
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Trendoscope tarafından
1
Financial Highlights [Fundamentals]█ OVERVIEW This indicator plot basic key financial data to imitate the presentation format of several popular finance site, make it easier for a quick glance of overall company financial health without switching tabs for every single stocks. █ Financial Data Available: - Revenue & PAT (Profit after Tax) - Net Profit Margin (%) - Gross Profit Margin (%) - Earnings Per Share (EPS) - Dividend █ Features: - Toggle between Quarter/Annual Financial Data (Notes: For Dividends, it will always be plotted based on Annual data, at Financial Year ending period) - Options to plot at either at Quarter/Yearly ending period OR Financial Data published date █ Limitation - The accuracy of the data subject to Tradingview's source, but from my observation it's accurate 95% of the time - Recently published data might not be available immediately. e.g. MYX exchange tends to have 1-3 days lag - More information on Tradingview's financial data can be read here -> www.tradingview.com █ Disclaimer Past performance is not an indicator of future results. My opinions and research are my own and do not constitute financial advice in any way whatsoever. Nothing published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or Content published by me be relied upon for any investment/trading activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions. Any ideas to further improve this indicator are welcome :)
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fareidzulkifli tarafından
15
Stock Value Display//This study is designed to plot estimates for a stock's value: //1) the Price to earnings ratio (PE) value based on the trailing twelve months of data //2) the PE value based future data //3) the Benjamin Graham value based trailing data //4) the Dividend Discount value based on trailing data You can adjust the period of data used to calculate the value between Fiscal Quarter "FQ" and Fiscal Year "FY." The values displayed on the chart are subject to the financial information provided to TradingView. This is intended to be used as a quick reference and should be viewed in context with other analysis prior to making any transaction decisions. As always, happy trading!
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MakeMoneyCoESTB2020 tarafından
6
P1 FundamentalsP1 is because to me, this is a priority 1 indicator, so I have P1 and P2 indicators ordered on the favorite list. What can you check on the selection pane? On “period”, you can show the data related to: the fiscal quarters or the fiscal years. You can select a pack of financial data that I have organized in sections: Revenue & earnings EPS & DPS (EPS, EPS estimate, DPS and dividend payout ratio ) Debt (total debt, total equity and cash & equivalents) Returns (ROE, ROIC, ROA and R&D revenue to ratio) I recommend to just select one of them, in other case the chart is a mess. Any feedback on the code is welcome!!
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joapen tarafından
1
3 Weeks Tight - Price Consolidation [LevelUp]3 Weeks Tight - Introduction 3 weeks tight is a bullish continuation pattern discovered by IBD's founder, William O'Neil. The pattern can used as an opportunity to add to an existing position as it often occurs after a breakout above a cup with handle or other technical pattern. The 3 weeks tight pattern forms when a stock closes within approximately 1% to 1.5% of the prior week's close for at least two weeks. The reason for the bullishness is that it indciates that investors who moved the stock upward in price since the breakout are not taking profits, the price is holding steady. The buy point is just above the area of resistance formed at the highs of the three weeks plus 10 cents. The ten cent addition to the price is to ensure a push through the resistance at the high of the range. Key Points: It's preferred that closes for each week are in the upper half of the stock's range. Ideally, volume will increase significantly as the stocks moves past the buy point. This pattern generally performs best when the market is in an uptrend. Features: A configurable horizontal bar that spans the 3 week period. A vertical band that highlights the tightness pattern. A label to show the buy price after 3 week tight pattern. Optional alert when the 3 weeks tight pattern is recognized.
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LevelUpTools tarafından
43
Spitznagel Faustmann RatioThis is a rough version of the Faustmann Ratio metric that Mark Spitznagel presents in The Dao of Capital. The purpose is to conservatively calculate the price of the company (market cap) relative to net worth. Over a medium term horizon, the theory is that companies which have a high ROIC (see my other script) combined with a low Faustmann Ratio (color coded to give you a rough idea) should generally outperform. Please don't take this short summary as an excuse to not read the full book. It's well worth your time. (I am not affiliated with the author in any way.)
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ianthetechie tarafından
7
Spitznagel ROICThis is a rough version of the Return on Invested Capital metric that Mark Spitznagel presents in The Dao of Capital. The purpose is to calculate the return on real invested capital, conservatively calculated. Over a medium term horizon, the theory is that companies which have a high ROIC (presented here as a decimal value where 0.5 = 50%, 1 = 100%, etc., and color coded as a general guide) combined with a low Faustmann Ratio (see my other script) should generally outperform. Please don't take this short summary as an excuse to not read the full book. It's well worth your time. (I am not affiliated with the author in any way.)
Pine Script® göstergesi
ianthetechie tarafından
1