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Discounted Price ProbabilityHere is an attempt to understand the probability of discounted price of a stock by comparing it to historical price and fundamental correlation. Have made use of some of the new features of pine in developing this script (Such as matrix and new features of tables such as cell merge and tooltip). Script makes use of the library written on matrix matrix 🎲 Process Probability is measured in two angles 🎯 Absolute : Measure the percentile of price and fundamentals with respect to all time high. The difference between the two is measure of probability of stock being undervalued. 🎯 Drawdown : Measure the percentile of distance from all time high for both price and fundamentals. The difference between the two is used for depicting the probability of stock being undervalued. 🎲 Components In short, the definitions of stats presented are as below 🎲 Settings Settings are pretty straightforward 🎲 How to look at these stats To Start with Are most of the fundamental values coloured in green? If yes, it means that they are near all time high in terms of percentile. If drawdowns of fundamental values coloured in green? If yes, it means, the stock has not suffered much drawdowns of fundamentals from its peak. Are the percentile values of drawdowns in green? If yes, it means, that drop in fundamentals are not high compared to its previous values. If all the above are greener, then it means, company is in strong growth space. Example: TSLA Even though the financial ratios of TSLA are not in par with most of the fundamentally strong stocks, it is indeed growing steadily and at its near all time high. Lets take another example of NKLA Here the base columns regarding fundamentals are mostly red. This means, company has suffered setback with respect to their financials and the company is not where it used to be. But, if you see the differential probabilities, it says 92% of being undervalued? Well, this is due to the fact that NKLA's fundamentals suffered most of the time and they are always below par when compared to price. Hence, such kind of cases may interpret the stocks as undervalued. Hence, even if the probability of being undervalued is more, it does not guarantee the quality of the stock. We need to be mindful overall financials of the company and how they fare with general standards. Moving forward To understand value of trending stock, use Absolute Probability (marked with P). Ex. GOOG, MSFT, BRK.B etc. To understand value of stock which has been recently suffered huge price drop, look at drawdown based probability (marked with D). Ex. BABA, FB, PYPL, SQ, ROKU etc. Some examples of high flyers: Some for deep pullbacks: And the meme stocks:
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Trendoscope tarafından
22
BTC HASHRATE DROP: OnchainWhy is the drop of hashrate important? Drop of hashrate usually occurs because some miners in the mining network stop for working. There are several possible reasons for this. Such as new anti-mining regulations in some countries or a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin, which makes mining no longer affordable for some miners. So they turn off their devices This reduces the supply of bitcoin in the market and according to the law of supply and demand can eventually lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin. This oscillator is designed to detect hashrate drop. for this, we use the data of glassnode . Maroon color indicates decrease in hashrate and Red color indicates excessive hash rate drop. As can be seen on the chart, usually after this drop, we see an increase in the price of bitcoin
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cryptoonchain tarafından
Earnings Price Move Cheat Sheet [KT]Hello! This script looks to distinguish replicable sequences and correlations between earnings releases and price. The indicator calculates the average 1-session to 20-session performance of an asset prior to an earnings release, and the 1-session to 20-session performance of an asset subsequent an earnings release. You can select the number of sessions the script calculates for asset performance. In the image above the script calculates the average 1-session performance following an earnings surprise, earnings miss, and in general. 20 sessions is the maximum value! Also measured is the average performance of an asset before and after earnings, in addition to the average performance following an earnings surprise "green earnings" and the average performance following an earnings miss "red earnings". I included VaR and CVaR calculations - using the historical method - in the script. For those of you unfamiliar with the metrics, both look to quantify the risk of financial loss for a portfolio, or even a particular position. The script also calculates the 1st - 5th percentile for earnings losses. A more comprehensive explanation of the metrics is stored in tooltips in the user input tab. The script also calculates the highest high and lowest low following an earnings release, up to 20 sessions, and calculates the difference between the two. Keep in mind that a company might not have a significant number of earnings misses, or may have only traded publicly for a short while. If true, the resulting earnings/price calculations *will* be misleading - there is an insufficient sample size; no correlations are ascertainable. I will be working on this script more, so let me know if there is anything you would like included!
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KioseffTrading tarafından
16
Valuation TableHey folks, I hope you are all doing well! This is an indicator that you can use to help you to evaluate companies. There are a few things I added to the valuation table that I personally use and I will explain what they are. I added Joel Greenblatt's ROC% because it takes Earnings before Interest and Taxes to reflect more closely what the company earns from its operations, while including the cost of depreciation/amortization of assets. A high double digit figure often means that the company has a defensible edge versus its competitors (e.g. a strong brand or a unique product). It's good for relative valuation (comparing two companies in the same industry). I also added Donald Yacktman's forward rate of return. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation . Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future. Yacktman’s Forward Rate of Return may or may not be a useful metric. However, it does present new ways to see and think about stocks we may want to buy. I added a box called "real price" and that is from Peter Lynch's book, "One Up on Wall Street," where he talked about how the real price of the stock is really the current price - Net Cash Per Share. I would also personally pair this script with TradingView's built in financial indicators that shows the revenue growth, net income, etc. Note: the script only works on the weekly timeframe and it will take some time to load because it has a lot of data.
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kenhuangsy2 tarafından
16
Bond Yeild CurveBond Yeild Curve A bond yeild curve is a line that plot the interest rate of bonds of each maturity dates. The slope of the curve give the future of economy cycle. if the slope could be normal (positive), flat or even inverted. This indicator aquired data of bond yeild provided by TradingView. How to use it. Select the country of the bond / another country to compare. Select the maturity of bond (this indicator set 2Y, 5Y, 10Y and 20Y as default). You can toggle to 3 different data set; Yeild, Spread (10Y-2Y) and Yeild Curve. In case that you select the "Yeild Curve", you can customize the desired past period to compare. How we can get the benefit. - If the current spread is greater than 1.0, it suppose that the economy of that country probably is ok. - if the current spread is between 0 - 1.0, it suppose to be flatted and probably turn to invert and the economy cound be in a recession soon. - if the current spread is below 0, it suppose to be inverted and economy is in recession. when knowing the state of economy, it would help us to manage our investment. When you select "Yeild" When you select "Spread" When you select "Yeild Curve" I'm new for this. if any idea, correction and suggestion, i do appreciate it.
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morzor61 tarafından
2
S&P 500 Earnings Yield SpreadThis indicator compares the attractiveness of equities relative to the risk-free rate of return, by comparing the earnings yields of S&P 500 companies to the 10Y treasury yields. "Earnings yield" refers to the net income attributable to shareholders divided by the stock's price - effectively the inverse of the PE ratio. The tangible meaning of this metric is "the annual income received by (attributable to) shareholders as a percent of the price paid to receive said income." Therefore, earnings yield is comparable to bond yields, which are "the annual income received by bond holders as a percent of the price paid to receive said income." This indicator subtracts the earnings yield of S&P 500 companies from the current 10-year treasury bond yield, creating a "spread" between the yields that determines whether equities are currently an attractive investment relative to bonds. That is, if the S&P 500 earnings yield exceeds the 10Y treasury yield, then equity investors are receiving more attributable income per dollar paid than bondholders, which could be an indication that equities are an attractive purchase relative to the risk-free rate. The same applies vice-versa; if the 10Y treasury yield exceeds that of the S&P 500 earnings yield, then equities may not be an attractive investment relative to the risk-free rate. Since data on S&P 500 companies' earnings yields are pulled on a monthly basis, this indicator should be used on a monthly timeframe or longer. Historical data has shown that the critical zones for the indicator are at -4% and +3%, i.e. when equities are trading with a 4% greater yield than 10Y T-bonds and when equities are trading with a 3% lower yield than 10Y T-bonds, respectively. In the "Oversold" case (-4%), equities are trading at a steep discount to the risk-free rate and has often represented a strong buying opportunity. In the "Overbought" case (+3%), equities are trading at a premium to the risk-free rate, which may be an indication that caution should be exercised within the stock market. When the indicator first crosses into "Oversold" territory, this has historically been near a the bottom of a crash on the S&P 500. When the indicator first crosses into the "Overbought" territory, this has often precipitated a correction of 15% on the S&P 500. Some notable "misses," crashes that this indicator missed, include the 1973 stock market crash and the 2008 global recession. However, both of these cases were largely precipitated by unprecedented economic events, as opposed to stocks simply being "Overbought" relative to treasury yields. Nonetheless, this indicator should form only a small portion of your fundamental analysis, as there are many macroeconomic factors that could lead to major corrections besides the impact of treasury yields. Furthermore, it should also be noted that since markets are "forward looking," future earnings growth or interest rate hikes may become "priced into" both the stock and bond markets, affecting the outputs of this indicator. However, since both the stock and bond markets should account for these factors simultaneously, the impact has historically been minimized. I hope you find this indicator to be beneficial to your strategies. Stay safe, and happy trading.
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alexjnelson tarafından
2
J1 - Glassnode Metrics ToolkitTV announced that you can now pull data from Glassnode! Here you can find every metric available to compare blockchain data from different coins. How to use: - Select your Coin - Select your Metric Then you can enable another coin or the same one to compare data. As per TV's post: Coins: BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, ABT, AMPL, ANT, ARMOR, BADGER, BAL, BAND, BAT, BIX, BNT, BOND, BRD, BUSD, BZRX, CELR, CHSB, CND, COMP, CREAM, CRO, CRV, CVC, CVP, DAI, DDX, DENT, DGX, DHT, DMG, DODO, DOUGH, DRGN, ELF, ENG, ENJ, EURS, FET, FTT, FUN, GNO, GUSD, HEGIC, HOT, HPT, HT, HUSD, INDEX, KCS, LAMB, LBA, LDO, LEO, LINK, LOOM, LRC, MANA, MATIC, MCB, MCO, MFT, MIR, MKR, MLN, MTA, MTL, MX, NDX, NEXO, NFTX, NMR, Nsure, OCEAN, OKB, OMG, PAX, PAY, PERP, PICKLE, PNK, PNT, POLY, POWR, PPT, QASH, QKC, QNT, RDN, REN, REP, RLC, ROOK, RPL, RSR, SAI, SAN, SNT, SNX, STAKE, STORJ, sUSD, SUSHI, TEL, TOP, UBT, UMA, UNI, USDC, USDK, USDT, UTK, VERI, WaBi, WAX, WBTC, WETH, wNMX, WTC, YAM, YFI, ZRX. Metrics: ACTIVEADDRESSES — Number of Active Addresses SENDINGADDRESSES — Number of Sending Addresses RECEIVINGADDRESSES — Number of Receiving Addresses NEWADDRESSES — Number of New Addresses ADDRESSES — Number of Addresses BLOCKS — Block Height BLOCKSMINED — Number of Blocks Mined BLOCKMEANINTERVAL — Mean Block Interval BLOCKMEDIANINTERVAL — Median Block Interval TOTALBLOCKSIZE — Total Block Size MEANBLOCKSIZE — Mean Block Size TOTALTXFEES — Total Transaction Fees MEANTXFEES — Mean Transaction Fees MEDIANTXFEES — Median Transaction Fees TOTALTXFEESUSD — Total Transaction Fees in USD MEANTXFEESUSD — Mean Transaction Fees in USD MEDIANTXFEESUSD — Median Transaction Fees in USD TOTALGASUSED — Total Gas Used MEANGASUSED — Mean Gas Used MEDIANGASUSED — Median Gas Used MEANTXGASPRICE — Mean Transaction Gas Price in gwei MEDIANTXGASPRICE — Median Transaction Gas Price in gwei MEANTXGASPRICEUSD — Mean Transaction Gas Price in USD MEDIANTXGASPRICEUSD — Median Transaction Gas Price in USD MEANGASLIMIT — Mean Transaction Gas Limit MEDIANGASLIMIT — Median Transaction Gas Limit MARKETCAP — Market Cap DIFFICULTY — Mining Difficulty HASHRATE — Mean Hash Rate ATHDRAWDOWN — Price Drawdown from ATH SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) NEWDEPOSITS — Number of New Deposits NEWSTAKED — Amount of New Value Staked NEWSTAKEDUSD — Amount of New Value Staked in USD NEWVALIDATORS — Number of New Validators DEPOSITS — Total Number of Deposits STAKED — Total Value Staked STAKEDUSD — Total Value Staked in USD VALIDATORS — Total Number of Validators PHASE0GOAL — Phase 0 Staking Goal ACTIVE1Y — Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago TXS — Number of Transactions TXSPS — Number of Transactions per Second TFSPS — Number of Transfers per Second TOTALTXSIZE — Total Size of Transactions MEANTXSIZE — Mean Size of Transfers TOTALVOLUME — Total Transfer Volume TOTALVOLUMEUSD — Total Transfer Volume in USD MEANVOLUME — Mean Transfer Volume MEANVOLUMEUSD — Mean Transfer Volume in USD MEDIANVOLUME — Median Transfer Volume MEDIANVOLUMEUSD — Median Transfer Volume in USD UTXOCREATED — Number of Created UTXOs UTXOSPENT — Number of Spent UTXOs UTXOTOTAL — Total Numbers of UTXOs in the Network UTXOVALUETOTAL — Total Value of Created UTXOs UTXOVALUETOTALUSD — Total Value of Created UTXOs in USD UTXOVALUEMEAN — Mean Value of Created UTXOs UTXOVALUEMEANUSD — Mean Value of Created UTXOs in USD UTXOVALUEMEDIAN — Median Value of Created UTXOs UTXOVALUEMEDIANUSD — Median Value of Created UTXOs in USD UTXOVALUETOTALSPENT — Total Value of Spent UTXOs UTXOVALUETOTALSPENTUSD — Total Value of Spent UTXOs in USD UTXOVALUEMEANSPENT — Mean Value of Spent UTXOs UTXOVALUEMEANSPENTUSD — Mean Value of Spent UTXOs in USD UTXOVALUEMEDIANSPENT — Median Value of Spent UTXOs UTXOVALUEMEDIANSPENTUSD — Median Value of Spent UTXOs in USD UNISWAPTXS — Number of Transactions on Uniswap UNISWAPTOTALVOLUME — Total Volume Traded on Uniswap UNISWAPTOTALVOLUMEUSD — Total Volume Traded on Uniswap in USD UNISWAPLIQUIDITY — Total Liquidity on Uniswap UNISWAPLIQUIDITYUSD — Total Liquidity on Uniswap in USD
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Jmorgado89 tarafından
6
Financial GrowthThis indicator will acquire the financial data provided by Tradview. the data is compare between Quarter, Annual and TTM in term of percent of growth. YoY, QoQ and CAGR is also available by this script (The minimum is 4). in addition, ploting of data, label and table also available (you can check the mark to toggle on / off). Data : Revenue, Net Income, EBITDA, EPS, DVPS, Free Cash Flow and Forward PE . How to use it. just select the financial data, period and size of data to compare. you can check the box to toggle the plotting line, label and table. Enjoy.
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morzor61 tarafından
62
Stock Value - How Much Stock Should Worth?Stock Value © danny_peanuts There are many method of measuring value of stock. However I'm proposing most basic stock valuation based on Book Value, Earnings, Dividends and Money Supply: SV = (BVPS + EPS + DPS) * (M2/M0) BVPS = Book Value Per Share (Asset - Liability) EPS = Earnings Per Share DPS = Dividends Per Share M2 = M2 Money Supply (Money Market) M0 = M0 Money Supply (Base Money) Fundamental value of a stock should be determine by it's BV which means total asset of a company if were liquidated today and use some of it's asset to pay of the debt. So technically BVPS is the intrinsic value of a stock. However the company is generating an earning which is profit and loss that should be added on top of the fundamental value of company, so thus EPS should be added on top of Book Value Per Share. Aside from earnings, the stock that you purchase give you dividends as your return so DPS also can be included on top of that. So all in all BVPS, EPS and DPS are the primary valuation of the stock. However most of the stock are traded way higher than their fundamental valuation. The main reason of this is the market dynamics which is driven by central banks printing of base money supply M0. The banking credit system then lend out this money to money markets as loan so that peoples can invest and by the company stock. This money supply extension of credit is known as money market M2 which drive the stock inflated price. The ratio between M2 and M0 are the money multiplier effect that drives the stock price higher than it's valuation. So the Stock Value should be the total number of BVPS + EPS + DPS times the M2 money multiplier as shown by this indicator. If the stock are traded above their SV value, that means it's an overpriced bubble If the stock are traded below their SV value, that means it's an underpriced burst
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danny_peanuts tarafından
10
Close Combination Lock Style - Visual AppealThis creates a combination style closing price change on each tick. It has two theme options, one as silver dials for Dark Theme and the other as black dials for White Theme. We get fixated to watching closing prices on charts and it gets visually daunting. This creates a combination style price change which updates on each tick, which is quite pleasing to the eye. When new price is above current center line, it shift the above prices showing ▲ arrow, and if new price is lower, it will shift the bottom prices showing ▼ arrow. If there is no change in price between the ticks, it will show =.
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processingclouds tarafından
Market Risk IndicatorThere are many tools for swing traders. Position traders have not as much, perhaps because they live in the fringe zone between fundamental analysis and trend following. In order to bridge this gap between fundamental analysis and technical analysis on large timeframes, we decided to work on building a market indicator that assesses its risk and quantifies it on a single dimension number. The challenge is to consider as input different assets, that individually are themselves often market driving forces, and collectively, more often than not, are sufficient to determine the market status quo. We came up with DXY , US10Y , HYG and WTI. The latter, the bigger the better; the former, vice versa. Each asset is evaluated against its recent max/min range, percentually. The positive ones add up and vice versa. This is still ongoing work. the math and code are simple. the heart of the matter is selecting the proper assets and processing them even better. Thank you.
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greenfield_br tarafından
8
Silen's Financials Fair ValueIt is finally here! 🔥 My 3rd and most important script in my Financial series! 🚀 Ever imagined to see all fundamentals (or many that is) combined into one indicator that is right on your chart, showing you how your favorite stock is trading compared to its fundamentals? Well, here is your answer! 📡 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ This script shows you my own personal interpretation of fair value, based solely on the financial fundamentals of a company compared to market averages. I don't believe that certain sectors of the market should be priced higher than others. If you look at historical data you'll see that favored sectors always rotate - placing insanely high P/E multiples on some sectors. Once they are "out" and people rotate away from those sectors you're left with nothing but the naked fundamentals that matter. So, you'll see many companies, that have been doing well on paper, see their share price decline by 70-90% for no other reasons than people favoring other sectors. That's why it's even more important to focus on fair value that is solely fundamentals-based. Know when your stock gets to expensive. 🤯 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ To give you some examples: - Most Megacaps trade at historically high valuations, several times my fair value. Those include AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, JPM, TSM, V and so on. And no, in the past they partially traded below (my) fair value. - Most Cybersecurity / Cloud companies are trading at truly massive multiples of my fair value. (NET, DDOG, etc) - Many Smallcaps & Midcaps are trading several multiples (OESX, CODX, QFIN) below my fair value. And no, in the past they partially traded above (my) fair value. Ok, so much about the market. You ultimately decide how much you want to orientate on fair value. 👨‍🏫 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ This fair value indicator (purple line): Takes the P/E rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight) Takes the P/S rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight) Then adds boni and mali f or debt/equity rates and debt and equity itself Also looks at past growth and calculates future P/E and P/S rates which adds , in some cases, value to the fair value (green line) Also compares how historical valuations have behaved compared to fair value and simulates a fair value guideline (dark blue line) ____________________________________________________________________________________________ This script is part 3️⃣ of a series of indicators that work well together. Script 1️⃣ of the series is: P/E & P/S Rates Script 2️⃣ of the series is: Debt & Equity If you use all 3 scripts together it will look like this, giving you truly deep and simple information about the fundamentals of a company: Example 1 - AMD Example 2 - HZO Example 3 - APPS I hope this script makes your investing and stock picks a lot easier! 🔆💹🕗 Disclaimer: Fair value is always subjective. There are many different approaches to fair value. This one is only my personal interpretation. Disclaimer 2: This script works only for the Day-Timeframe. Disclaimer 3: This script uses 17,5 P/E and 3,0 P/S as market averages. The actual average keeps changing but, historically speaking, these seemed to be good numbers. Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback! 🙃
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The_Silen tarafından
18
FX Profit CalculatorWith this indicator, you will be able to see how much you earn in forex in dollar terms. It asks you 3 things when adding the indicator. TP point SL point Position Entry point If you have selected the TP point above, the entry zone below it, and the SL point below it, the indicator will automatically understand that there is a BUY order and will make the calculations accordingly. The same is true for the opposite. When you use the indicator in any parity, you will have problems switching to other parities. So either use it only in one parity, or update your targets from the indicator settings at every parity change. You will get the same error if: Your trading entry point should be between your TP and SL points. If you do not set it this way, the indicator will warn that please fix it. If you are in the trade, tick the settings and show the dollar-based profit of your position according to the instant closing price. The percentage variable works like this: When you adjust for one parity, shifts occur in the chart when you switch to the other parity. When switching to non-circulating graphics at the same prices, the user is prompted to re-enter so that the graphic does not deteriorate. BONUS : You can move these lines up and down with your mouse on the graphic :)
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only_fibonacci tarafından
5