PO3 ExotradesPO3 Exotrades Indicator
The PO3 Exotrades indicator is designed to provide an advanced and customizable way to visualize market trends on higher timeframes. It displays scaled and color-coded candles with precise wick and body structures for better chart analysis. This indicator is ideal for traders who want to analyze and monitor higher timeframe (HTF) market data directly on lower timeframe charts.
Key Features:
Scaled and Customizable Candles: The indicator allows for adjustable candle size and spacing, making it suitable for different trading styles and preferences. You can scale up or down the candle body width while maintaining the original height to ensure accurate visual representation.
Color-Coding for Market Direction: The indicator automatically colors the body of the candles based on the market's trend. Green represents a bullish candle, while red represents a bearish candle, giving quick visual cues for price movement direction.
Wicks Visualization: The indicator also visualizes the wicks of the candles, providing detailed insight into price action and volatility. Wicks can be color-customized for both bullish and bearish movements.
Timeframe Customization: You can set the timeframe (TF) to your preferred value, allowing for flexibility in analyzing high timeframe candles on lower timeframe charts.
Chart Trading (CRT) Friendly: Ideal for Chart Trading (CRT), the indicator's clean and clear visuals help traders spot key market signals more effectively, making it a perfect tool for those who engage in intra-day or long-term chart trading.
User-Friendly Adjustments: Customize the appearance of the candles, wicks, and their spacing to suit your preferences, enhancing your chart analysis and trading strategy.
How to Use:
Apply the PO3 Exotrades indicator to your chart.
Adjust the scale to increase or decrease the candle width for better visual clarity.
Use the indicator's color-coded candles to identify bullish and bearish market conditions quickly.
Analyze the wick structures to understand volatility and price action during key market movements.
Leverage the HTF data on lower timeframes to align your trading strategies with higher timeframe trends, optimizing your entries and exits.
Whether you're a scalper, day trader, or swing trader, the PO3 Exotrades indicator enhances your technical analysis and provides an edge in your trading decisions by visualizing HTF data in a clear and actionable way.
Forecasting
Cumulative volume analysisAfter user define the ragion area. While break out the region area, you can try this indicator to notice when the power is ended and maybe reverse the trend.
1. The user enters the start time, and end time
2. The indicator will record the highest, lowest price, and cumulative amount during this period.
The cumulative amount is calculated by adding up the amount of each K bar, regardless of whether it rises or falls.
3. When the cumulative amount is reduced to less than or equal to 0, make a plotshape arrow
4.There are two diferent method to record the volume. Try the better way to different product.
Pivot Highs/Lows with Bar CountsWhat does the indicator do?
This indicator adds labels to a chart at swing (a.k.a., "pivot") highs and lows. Each label may contain a date, the closing price at the swing, the number of bars since the last swing in the same direction, and the number of bars from the last swing in the opposite direction. A table is also added to the chart that shows the average, min, and max number of bars between swings.
OK, but how do I use it?
Many markets -- especially sideways-moving ones -- commonly cycle between swing highs and lows at regular time intervals. By measuring the number of bars between highs and lows -- both same-sided swings (i.e., H-H and L-L) and opposite-sided swings (i.e., H-L and L-H) -- you can then project the averages of those bar counts from the last high or low swing to make predictions about where the next swing high or low should occur. Note that this indicator does not make the projection for you. You have to determine which swing you want to project from and then use the bar counts from the indicator to draw a line, place a label, etc.
Example: Chart of BTC/USD
The indicator shows pivot highs and lows with bar counts, and it displays a table of stats on those pivots.
If you focus on the center section of the chart, you can see that prices were moving in a sideways channel with very regular highs and lows. This indicator counts the bars between these pivots, and you could have used those counts to predict when the next high or low may have occurred.
The bar counts do not work as well on the more recent section of the chart because there are no regularly time swings.
Mean Reversion IndicatorSMA with Deviation and Z-Score Indicator
Overview:
This indicator combines the Simple Moving Average (SMA) with statistical measures of price deviation to identify potential buy and sell signals based on mean reversion principles. It calculates the Z-Score, which quantifies how far the current price is from its moving average in terms of standard deviations, helping traders spot when an asset might be overbought or oversold.
Key Features:
SMA Calculation: Uses a user-defined period to compute a Simple Moving Average, providing a baseline for price movement.
Z-Score: Measures the number of standard deviations the current price is from the SMA. This is crucial for identifying extreme price movements.
Formula: Z-Score = (Current Price - SMA) / Standard Deviation
Signal Generation:
Buy Signal: Generated when the Z-Score falls below a predefined threshold, suggesting the price is significantly below its mean and potentially undervalued.
Sell Signal: Triggered when the Z-Score exceeds another threshold, indicating the price is significantly above its mean and possibly overvalued.
Visual Indicators:
SMA Line: Plotted in blue on the chart for easy reference.
Z-Score Line: Available but hidden by default, can be shown if needed for deeper analysis.
Buy/Sell Signals: Represented by green up-arrows for buy signals and red down-arrows for sell signals.
Background Color: Changes to green or red subtly to indicate buy or sell zones based on Z-Score thresholds.
Z-Score Label: Provides the numerical Z-Score for each bar, aiding in precise decision-making.
Customizable Parameters:
SMA Length: Adjust the period over which the SMA is calculated.
Lookback Period: Set the number of periods for calculating the standard deviation and Z-Score.
Buy/Sell Z-Scores: Thresholds for generating buy and sell signals can be tailored to your strategy or market conditions. FX:EURUSD FX:EURUSD
Usage Tips:
This indicator is best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis for confirmation. Mean reversion does not always hold in trending markets.
Adjust the Z-Score thresholds based on asset volatility for more or less frequent signals.
Backtest with historical data to optimize settings for your specific trading approach.
Note: While this indicator can help identify potential trading opportunities based on statistical anomalies, it does not guarantee success and should be part of a broader trading strategy that includes risk management and market context understanding.
AHR999X IndexAHR999X Index - A Tool to Watch BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin Tops
The AHR999X Index is designed as an extension of the well-known AHR999 Index, specifically to help identify Bitcoin's market tops. This index combines two critical components:
200-Day Fixed Investment Cost:
The average cost if you invested a fixed amount into Bitcoin every day over the last 200 days (using a geometric mean).
Growth Estimate:
A price estimate derived from a logarithmic regression model based on Bitcoin's age.
The formula for AHR999X is:
AHR999X = (Bitcoin Price ÷ 200-Day Fixed Investment Cost) × (Bitcoin Price ÷ Growth Estimate) × 3
How to Interpret AHR999X
Above 8: Accumulation Zone – Bitcoin is historically undervalued.
Between 0.45 and 8: Neutral Zone – Bitcoin is within a reasonable price range.
Below 0.45: Exit Zone – Historically signals market tops and high-risk areas.
A Cycle Observation
One important point to note:
The bottom value of AHR999X increases with every Bitcoin market cycle.
This reflects Bitcoin's long-term price appreciation and diminishing volatility over time.
Market Open Levels v3This indicator "Market Open Levels v3" allows a chart user to automatically display up to 20 previous price levels at the open price of up to 8 different markets simultaneously on one indicator.
The user can specify custom labels for each market's price level, as well as adjust the GMT Offset to allow for market open times in a different timezone than the chart's displayed time.
Displays price level at specified market open times. For instance, if a user specifies a market opens at 08:00, then a price level (horizontal line) will be drawn at the most recent 08:00 candle's open price (if GMT Offset is set to 0).
See tooltips for more information on specific inputs.
Three Step Future-Trend [BigBeluga]Three Step Future-Trend by BigBeluga is a forward-looking trend analysis tool designed to project potential future price direction based on historical periods. This indicator aggregates data from three consecutive periods, using price averages and delta volume analysis to forecast trend movement and visualize it on the chart with a projected trend line and volume metrics.
🔵 Key Features:
Three Period Analysis: Calculates price averages and delta volumes from three specified periods, creating a consolidated view of historical price movement.
Future Trend Line Projection: Plots a forward trend line based on the calculated averag of three periods, helping traders visualize potential future price movement.
Avg Delta Volume and Future Price Label: Shows a delta average Volume a long with a Future Price label at the end of the projected trend line, indicating the possible future delta volume and future Price.
Volume Data Table: Displays a detailed table showing delta and total volume for each of the three periods, allowing quick volume comparison to support the projected trend.
This indicator provides a dynamic way to anticipate market direction by blending price and volume data, giving traders insights into both volume and trend strength in upcoming periods.
DCA Order Info PlannerDescription :
This script is a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) order planner designed for SPOT, LONG, and SHORT markets. It automatically calculates the optimal price levels for your orders based on configurable parameters, while also considering leverage and liquidation price.
🔹 Key Features:
1. Automatic Order Planning:
- The script calculates price levels for your orders based on an adjustable scaling coefficient (default: 1.5).
- You can set the percentage interval between each order (default: 2%).
- Displays the number of units to buy/sell at each level.
2.Leverage Management:
- Integrates a configurable leverage and computes the liquidation price for LONG and SHORT positions.
3.Clear Visual Display:
- Markers on the chart indicating order levels with customizable labels.
- A summary table shows price levels and corresponding quantities.
- Visualizes Stop Loss and Take Profit levels if defined.
4.Automatic Alerts:
- Sends alerts when the price reaches an order level.
🔹 Customizable Parameters:
- Starting Price: Initial price for calculating orders.
- Budget: Total budget for DCA orders.
- Leverage: Multiplier for LONG/SHORT positions.
- Scaling Coefficient: Adjusts the spacing between order levels.
- Maximum DCA Levels: Limits the number of generated orders.
🔹 How to Use:
1. Configure the parameters according to your strategy.
2. The script displays order levels and quantities on the chart.
3. Use the summary table to manually input orders on your favorite trading platform.
This script is particularly useful in volatile market conditions to average your entry or exit price and manage risk effectively.
Quantify [Entry Model] | FractalystWhat’s the indicator’s purpose and functionality?
Quantify is a machine learning entry model designed to help traders identify high-probability setups to refine their strategies.
➙ Simply pick your bias, select your entry timeframes, and let Quantify handle the rest for you.
Can the indicator be applied to any market approach/trading strategy?
Absolutely, all trading strategies share one fundamental element: Directional Bias
Once you’ve determined the market bias using your own personal approach, whether it’s through technical analysis or fundamental analysis, select the trend direction in the Quantify user inputs.
The algorithm will then adjust its calculations to provide optimal entry levels aligned with your chosen bias. This involves analyzing historical patterns to identify setups with the highest potential expected values, ensuring your setups are aligned with the selected direction.
Can the indicator be used for different timeframes or trading styles?
Yes, regardless of the timeframe you’d like to take your entries, the indicator adapts to your trading style.
Whether you’re a swing trader, scalper, or even a position trader, the algorithm dynamically evaluates market conditions across your chosen timeframe.
How can this indicator help me to refine my trading strategy?
1. Focus on Positive Expected Value
• The indicator evaluates every setup to ensure it has a positive expected value, helping you focus only on trades that statistically favor long-term profitability.
2. Adapt to Market Conditions
• By analyzing real-time market behavior and historical patterns, the algorithm adjusts its calculations to match current conditions, keeping your strategy relevant and adaptable.
3. Eliminate Emotional Bias
• With clear probabilities, expected values, and data-driven insights, the indicator removes guesswork and helps you avoid emotional decisions that can damage your edge.
4. Optimize Entry Levels
• The indicator identifies optimal entry levels based on your selected bias and timeframes, improving robustness in your trades.
5. Enhance Risk Management
• Using tools like the Kelly Criterion, the indicator suggests optimal position sizes and risk levels, ensuring that your strategy maintains consistency and discipline.
6. Avoid Overtrading
• By highlighting only high-potential setups, the indicator keeps you focused on quality over quantity, helping you refine your strategy and avoid unnecessary losses.
How can I get started to use the indicator for my entries?
1. Set Your Market Bias
• Determine whether the market trend is Bullish or Bearish using your own approach.
• Select the corresponding bias in the indicator’s user inputs to align it with your analysis.
2. Choose Your Entry Timeframes
• Specify the timeframes you want to focus on for trade entries.
• The indicator will dynamically analyze these timeframes to provide optimal setups.
3. Let the Algorithm Analyze
• Quantify evaluates historical data and real-time price action to calculate probabilities and expected values.
• It highlights setups with the highest potential based on your selected bias and timeframes.
4. Refine Your Entries
• Use the insights provided—entry levels, probabilities, and risk calculations—to align your trades with a math-driven edge.
• Avoid overtrading by focusing only on setups with positive expected value.
5. Adapt to Market Conditions
• The indicator continuously adapts to real-time market behavior, ensuring its recommendations stay relevant and precise as conditions change.
How does the indicator calculate the current range?
The indicator calculates the current range by analyzing swing points from the very first bar on your charts to the latest available bar it identifies external liquidity levels, also known as BSLQ (buy-side liquidity levels) and SSLQ (sell-side liquidity levels).
What's the purpose of these levels? What are the underlying calculations?
1. Understanding Swing highs and Swing Lows
Swing High: A Swing High is formed when there is a high with 2 lower highs to the left and right.
Swing Low: A Swing Low is formed when there is a low with 2 higher lows to the left and right.
2. Understanding the purpose and the underlying calculations behind Buyside, Sellside and Pivot levels.
3. Identifying Discount and Premium Zones.
4. Importance of Risk-Reward in Premium and Discount Ranges
How does the script calculate probabilities?
The script calculates the probability of each liquidity level individually. Here's the breakdown:
1. Upon the formation of a new range, the script waits for the price to reach and tap into pivot level level. Status: "■" - Inactive
2. Once pivot level is tapped into, the pivot status becomes activated and it waits for either liquidity side to be hit. Status: "▶" - Active
3. If the buyside liquidity is hit, the script adds to the count of successful buyside liquidity occurrences. Similarly, if the sellside is tapped, it records successful sellside liquidity occurrences.
4. Finally, the number of successful occurrences for each side is divided by the overall count individually to calculate the range probabilities.
Note: The calculations are performed independently for each directional range. A range is considered bearish if the previous breakout was through a sellside liquidity. Conversely, a range is considered bullish if the most recent breakout was through a buyside liquidity.
What does the multi-timeframe functionality offer?
You can incorporate up to 4 higher timeframe probabilities directly into the table.
This feature allows you to analyze the probabilities of buyside and sellside liquidity across multiple timeframes, without the need to manually switch between them.
By viewing these higher timeframe probabilities in one place, traders can spot larger market trends and refine their entries and exits with a better understanding of the overall market context.
What are the multi-timeframe underlying calculations?
The script uses the same calculations (mentioned above) and uses security function to request the data such as price levels, bar time, probabilities and booleans from the user-input timeframe.
How does the Indicator Identifies Positive Expected Values?
Quantify instantly calculates whether a trade setup has the potential to generate positive expected value (EV).
To determine a positive EV setup, the indicator uses the formula:
EV = ( P(Win) × R(Win) ) − ( P(Loss) × R(Loss))
where:
- P(Win) is the probability of a winning trade.
- R(Win) is the reward or return for a winning trade, determined by the current risk-to-reward ratio (RR).
- P(Loss) is the probability of a losing trade.
- R(Loss) is the loss incurred per losing trade, typically assumed to be -1.
By calculating these values based on historical data and the current trading setup, the indicator helps you understand whether your trade has a positive expected value.
How can I know that the setup I'm going to trade with has a positive EV?
If the indicator detects that the adjusted pivot and buy/sell side probabilities have generated positive expected value (EV) in historical data, the risk-to-reward (RR) label within the range box will be colored blue and red .
If the setup does not produce positive EV, the RR label will appear gray.
This indicates that even the risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:1, the setup is not likely to yield a positive EV because, according to historical data, the number of losses outweighs the number of wins relative to the RR gain per winning trade.
What is the confidence level in the indicator, and how is it determined?
The confidence level in the indicator reflects the reliability of the probabilities calculated based on historical data. It is determined by the sample size of the probabilities used in the calculations. A larger sample size generally increases the confidence level, indicating that the probabilities are more reliable and consistent with past performance.
How does the confidence level affect the risk-to-reward (RR) label?
The confidence level (★) is visually represented alongside the probability label. A higher confidence level indicates that the probabilities used to determine the RR label are based on a larger and more reliable sample size.
How can traders use the confidence level to make better trading decisions?
Traders can use the confidence level to gauge the reliability of the probabilities and expected value (EV) calculations provided by the indicator. A confidence level above 95% is considered statistically significant and indicates that the historical data supporting the probabilities is robust. This high confidence level suggests that the probabilities are reliable and that the indicator’s recommendations are more likely to be accurate.
In data science and statistics, a confidence level above 95% generally means that there is less than a 5% chance that the observed results are due to random variation. This threshold is widely accepted in research and industry as a marker of statistical significance. Studies such as those published in the Journal of Statistical Software and the American Statistical Association support this threshold, emphasizing that a confidence level above 95% provides a strong assurance of data reliability and validity.
Conversely, a confidence level below 95% indicates that the sample size may be insufficient and that the data might be less reliable. In such cases, traders should approach the indicator’s recommendations with caution and consider additional factors or further analysis before making trading decisions.
How does the sample size affect the confidence level, and how does it relate to my TradingView plan?
The sample size for calculating the confidence level is directly influenced by the amount of historical data available on your charts. A larger sample size typically leads to more reliable probabilities and higher confidence levels.
Here’s how the TradingView plans affect your data access:
Essential Plan
The Essential Plan provides basic data access with a limited amount of historical data. This can lead to smaller sample sizes and lower confidence levels, which may weaken the robustness of your probability calculations. Suitable for casual traders who do not require extensive historical analysis.
Plus Plan
The Plus Plan offers more historical data than the Essential Plan, allowing for larger sample sizes and more accurate confidence levels. This enhancement improves the reliability of indicator calculations. This plan is ideal for more active traders looking to refine their strategies with better data.
Premium Plan
The Premium Plan grants access to extensive historical data, enabling the largest sample sizes and the highest confidence levels. This plan provides the most reliable data for accurate calculations, with up to 20,000 historical bars available for analysis. It is designed for serious traders who need comprehensive data for in-depth market analysis.
PRO+ Plans
The PRO+ Plans offer the most extensive historical data, allowing for the largest sample sizes and the highest confidence levels. These plans are tailored for professional traders who require advanced features and significant historical data to support their trading strategies effectively.
For many traders, the Premium Plan offers a good balance of affordability and sufficient sample size for accurate confidence levels.
What is the HTF probability table and how does it work?
The HTF (Higher Time Frame) probability table is a feature that allows you to view buy and sellside probabilities and their status from timeframes higher than your current chart timeframe.
Here’s how it works:
Data Request: The table requests and retrieves data from user-defined higher timeframes (HTFs) that you select.
Probability Display: It displays the buy and sellside probabilities for each of these HTFs, providing insights into the likelihood of price movements based on higher timeframe data.
Detailed Tooltips: The table includes detailed tooltips for each timeframe, offering additional context and explanations to help you understand the data better.
What do the different colors in the HTF probability table indicate?
The colors in the HTF probability table provide visual cues about the expected value (EV) of trading setups based on higher timeframe probabilities:
Blue: Suggests that entering a long position from the HTF user-defined pivot point, targeting buyside liquidity, is likely to result in a positive expected value (EV) based on historical data and sample size.
Red: Indicates that entering a short position from the HTF user-defined pivot point, targeting sellside liquidity, is likely to result in a positive expected value (EV) based on historical data and sample size.
Gray: Shows that neither long nor short trades from the HTF user-defined pivot point are expected to generate positive EV, suggesting that trading these setups may not be favorable.
What machine learning techniques are used in Quantify?
Quantify offers two main machine learning approaches:
1. Adaptive Learning (Fixed Sample Size): The algorithm learns from the entire dataset without resampling, maintaining a stable model that adapts to the latest market conditions.
2. Bootstrap Resampling: This method creates multiple subsets of the historical data, allowing the model to train on varying sample sizes. This technique enhances the robustness of predictions by ensuring that the model is not overfitting to a single dataset.
How does machine learning affect the expected value calculations in Quantify?
Machine learning plays a key role in improving the accuracy of expected value (EV) calculations. By analyzing historical price action, liquidity hits, and market bias patterns, the model continuously adjusts its understanding of risk and reward, allowing the expected value to reflect the most likely market movements. This results in more precise EV predictions, helping traders focus on setups that maximize profitability.
What is the Kelly Criterion, and how does it work in Quantify?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal position size for each trade, maximizing long-term growth while minimizing the risk of large drawdowns. It calculates the percentage of your portfolio to risk on a trade based on the probability of winning and the expected payoff.
Quantify integrates this with user-defined inputs to dynamically calculate the most effective position size in percentage, aligning with the trader’s risk tolerance and desired exposure.
How does Quantify use the Kelly Criterion in practice?
Quantify uses the Kelly Criterion to optimize position sizing based on the following factors:
1. Confidence Level: The model assesses the confidence level in the trade setup based on historical data and sample size. A higher confidence level increases the suggested position size because the trade has a higher probability of success.
2. Max Allowed Drawdown (User-Defined): Traders can set their preferred maximum allowed drawdown, which dictates how much loss is acceptable before reducing position size or stopping trading. Quantify uses this input to ensure that risk exposure aligns with the trader’s risk tolerance.
3. Probabilities: Quantify calculates the probabilities of success for each trade setup. The higher the probability of a successful trade (based on historical price action and liquidity levels), the larger the position size suggested by the Kelly Criterion.
What is a trailing stoploss, and how does it work in Quantify?
A trailing stoploss is a dynamic risk management tool that moves with the price as the market trend continues in the trader’s favor. Unlike a fixed take profit, which stays at a set level, the trailing stoploss automatically adjusts itself as the market moves, locking in profits as the price advances.
In Quantify, the trailing stoploss is enhanced by incorporating market structure liquidity levels (explain above). This ensures that the stoploss adjusts intelligently based on key price levels, allowing the trader to stay in the trade as long as the trend remains intact, while also protecting profits if the market reverses.
Why would a trader prefer a trailing stoploss based on liquidity levels instead of a fixed take-profit level?
Traders who use trailing stoplosses based on liquidity levels prefer this method because:
1. Market-Driven Flexibility: The stoploss follows the market structure rather than being static at a pre-defined level. This means the stoploss is less likely to be hit by small market fluctuations or false reversals. The stoploss remains adaptive, moving as the market moves.
2. Riding the Trend: Traders can capture more profit during a sustained trend because the trailing stop will adjust only when the trend starts to reverse significantly, based on key liquidity levels. This allows them to hold positions longer without prematurely locking in profits.
3. Avoiding Premature Exits: Fixed stoploss levels may exit a trade too early in volatile markets, while liquidity-based trailing stoploss levels respect the natural flow of price action, preventing the trader from exiting too soon during pullbacks or minor retracements.
🎲 Becoming the House: Gaining an Edge Over the Market
In American roulette, the casino has a 5.26% edge due to the presence of the 0 and 00 pockets. On even-money bets, players face a 47.37% chance of winning, while true 50/50 odds would require a 50% chance. This edge—the gap between the payout odds and the true probabilities—ensures that, statistically, the casino will always win over time, even if individual players win occasionally.
From a Trader’s Perspective
In trading, your edge comes from identifying and executing setups with a positive expected value (EV). For example:
• If you identify a setup with a 55.48% chance of winning and a 1:1 risk-to-reward (RR) ratio, your trade has a statistical advantage over a neutral (50/50) probability.
This edge works in your favor when applied consistently across a series of trades, just as the casino’s edge ensures profitability across thousands of spins.
🎰 Applying the Concept to Trading
Like casinos leverage their mathematical edge in games of chance, you can achieve long-term success in trading by focusing on setups with positive EV and managing your trades systematically. Here’s how:
1. Probability Advantage: Prioritize trades where the probability of success (win rate) exceeds the breakeven rate for your chosen risk-to-reward ratio.
• Example: With a 1:1 RR, you need a win rate above 50% to achieve positive EV.
2. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): Even with a win rate below 50%, you can gain an edge by increasing your RR (e.g., a 40% win rate with a 2:1 RR still has positive EV).
3. Consistency and Discipline: Just as casinos profit by sticking to their mathematical advantage over thousands of spins, traders must rely on their edge across many trades, avoiding emotional decisions or overleveraging.
By targeting favorable probabilities and managing trades effectively, you “become the house” in your trading. This approach allows you to leverage statistical advantages to enhance your overall performance and achieve sustainable profitability.
What Makes the Quantify Indicator Original?
1. Data-Driven Edge
Unlike traditional indicators that rely on static formulas, Quantify leverages probability-based analysis and machine learning. It calculates expected value (EV) and confidence levels to help traders identify setups with a true statistical edge.
2. Integration of Market Structure
Quantify uses market structure liquidity levels to dynamically adapt. It identifies key zones like swing highs/lows and liquidity traps, enabling users to align entries and exits with where the market is most likely to react. This bridges the gap between price action analysis and quantitative trading.
3. Sophisticated Risk Management
The Kelly Criterion implementation is unique. Quantify allows traders to input their maximum allowed drawdown, dynamically adjusting risk exposure to maintain optimal position sizing. This ensures risk is scientifically controlled while maximizing potential growth.
4. Multi-Timeframe and Liquidity-Based Trailing Stops
The indicator doesn’t just suggest fixed profit-taking levels. It offers market structure-based trailing stop-loss functionality, letting traders ride trends as long as liquidity and probabilities favor the position, which is rare in most tools.
5. Customizable Bias and Adaptive Learning
• Directional Bias: Traders can set a bullish or bearish bias, and the indicator recalculates probabilities to align with the trader’s market outlook.
• Adaptive Learning: The machine learning model adapts to changes in data (via resampling or bootstrap methods), ensuring that predictions stay relevant in evolving markets.
6. Positive EV Focus
The focus on positive EV setups differentiates it from reactive indicators. It shifts trading from chasing signals to acting on setups that statistically favor profitability, akin to how professional quant funds operate.
7. User Empowerment
Through features like customizable timeframes, real-time probability updates, and visualization tools, Quantify empowers users to make data-informed decisions.
Terms and Conditions | Disclaimer
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. They are not intended to forecast market movements or offer specific recommendations. Users should understand that past performance does not guarantee future results and should not base financial decisions solely on historical data.
Built-in components, features, and functionalities of our charting tools are the intellectual property of @Fractalyst use, reproduction, or distribution of these proprietary elements is prohibited.
By continuing to use our charting tools, the user acknowledges and accepts the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer and agrees to respect our intellectual property rights and comply with all applicable laws and regulations.
Supertrend with Correct Y-axis Scaling OLEG_SLSThe functionality of the script:
1. Supertrend Calculation:
-The trend (Supertrend line) is updated dynamically:
-If the price is above the previous trend, the line follows the upper limit.
-If the price is lower, the line follows the lower boundary.
2. Calculation of the Supertrend for the higher timeframe:
-The function is used to calculate the Supertrend for the hourly, regardless of the current timeframe on the chart.
3. Buy and Sell Signals:
-Buy signal: When the price crosses the Supertrend line up and is above the Supertrend line.
-A sales signal: When the price crosses the Supertrend line down and is below the Supertrend line.
4. Display on the chart
-The Supertrend line is displayed:
-Green if the price is above the Supertrend line.
-Red if the price is below the Supertrend line.
-The Supertrend line for the hourly timeframe is displayed in blue.
5. Alerts
Two types of alerts are created:
-Buy Alert: When there is a buy signal.
-Sell Alert: When there is a sell signal.
Features and recommendations:
-Supertrend works best in trending markets. In a sideways movement, it can give false signals.
-Check the signals on multiple timeframes for confirmation.
-Add additional indicators (for example, RSI or MACD) to filter the signals.
-Test the strategy on historical data before using it in real trading.
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Функционал скрипта:
1. Расчет Supertrend:
-Тренд (линия Supertrend) обновляется динамически:
-Если цена выше предыдущего тренда, линия следует за верхней границей.
-Если цена ниже, линия следует за нижней границей.
2. Расчет Supertrend для старшего таймфрейма:
-Используется функция чтобы рассчитать Supertrend для часового,независимо от текущего таймфрейма на графике.
3. Сигналы покупки и продажи:
-Сигнал покупки: Когда цена пересекает линию Supertrend вверх и находится выше линии Supertrend.
-Сигнал продажи: Когда цена пересекает линию Supertrend вниз и находится ниже линии Supertrend.
4. Отображение на графике
-Линия Supertrend отображается:
-Зеленым, если цена выше линии Supertrend.
-Красным, если цена ниже линии Supertrend.
-Линия Supertrend для часового таймфрейма отображается синим цветом.
5. Оповещения
Создаются два типа оповещений:
-Buy Alert: Когда возникает сигнал на покупку.
-Sell Alert: Когда возникает сигнал на продажу.
Особенности и рекомендации:
-Supertrend лучше всего работает в трендовых рынках. В боковом движении может давать ложные сигналы.
-Проверяйте сигналы на нескольких таймфреймах для подтверждения.
-Добавьте дополнительные индикаторы (например, RSI или MACD) для фильтрации сигналов.
-Тестируйте стратегию на исторических данных перед использованием в реальной торговле.
The Dragons Maw [inspired by Kioseff Trading]The Dragon's Maw is a playful visualization tool that uses Monte Carlo simulation to create a dragon-like pattern on your chart. Although primarily intended for entertainment, it is also suitable for testing or falsifying the utility of this method's predictions.
What It Does:
- Generates multiple price path simulations that form the shape of a "fire-breathing" effect
- Shows upper and lower boundaries of all simulations as the dragon's "maw"
- Displays the dragon's "eye" and "ear" as a visual indicator of the historical data used
How It Works:
1. The indicator calculates returns from historical price data
2. Using Monte Carlo simulation with either normal distribution or bootstrap sampling, it generates multiple potential price paths
3. These paths are rendered with high transparency to create a fire/smoke effect showing the higher probability regions as denser color
4. It can be observed that the direction of the "fire" is influenced by recent price movement especially when set in relation to the "eye" position which indicates the limit of historical data used for the simulation
Educational Value:
Use the 'Move to the Left' parameter to position the dragon's head at different points in historical data. This feature serves as an excellent demonstration of the limitations of statistical price projections – you'll quickly see how the simulated paths diverge from what actually happened, highlighting why such projections should not be relied upon for trading decisions.
You might find, that it's not at all capable of 'predicting' sudden price movements but rather 'predicts' a continuation of the recent trend.
Features:
- Adjustable number of simulations (affects detail of the "fire" effect)
- Moveable dragon head (can be positioned at different points in price history)
- Customizable colors for the maw boundaries and fire effect
- Optional scale display for price levels
Note: This indicator is inspired by KioseffTrading's original work, with added features for visualization and positioning. While it uses statistical methods, it should be viewed as an artistic interpretation of price movement rather than a predictive tool.
Settings Guide:
- Upper/Lower Limit: Colors for the dragon's maw boundaries
- Fire Color: Color and transparency of the simulation paths
- Look Back: How far back to calculate the dragon's eye position
- Much Fire: Controls the density of simulation paths
- Length: Determines how far forward the simulation extends
The chart shows a clean view of the indicator's output, with the dragon's eye (o), ear, maw boundaries, and fire effect clearly visible on the right side of the chart by default.
Resistance & SupportThis indicator combines multiple analytical methods to calculate potential support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading day, leveraging historical price data. The calculations are based on three key areas:
Pivot Points: These are calculated using the previous day's high, low, and close values to provide central price levels, along with first and second-level support and resistance (S1, S2, R1, R2). These levels are commonly used in technical analysis and can serve as reference points for market entries and exits.
3-Day Price Average (3DBP): This value provides a short-term trend signal by averaging the high, low, and close prices over the past three days. The indicator helps identify whether the market has been trading at higher or lower levels recently, which can signal bullish or bearish trends.
Trend Detection: The script also includes a short-term and long-term trend analysis:
Short-Term Trend: The prior day’s 3DBP is compared to the previous day’s 3DBP to gauge the market's short-term direction.
Long-Term Trend: The prior close is compared to the open from 50 days ago, offering an indication of the overall market trend.
These components work together to provide actionable insights on potential entry points. For example:
In a bullish market, support levels may act as potential entry points for long trades when the price retraces.
In a bearish market, resistance levels may act as potential entry points for short trades upon price rejection.
The Trend Table at the top right of the chart displays the short-term and long-term trend information for quick reference. It shows whether the trends are bullish or bearish based on the calculations above.
While originally optimized for the EUR/USD currency pair, this indicator can be applied to other forex pairs. However, results may vary depending on the instrument, and further testing is recommended for non-EUR/USD pairs.
Usage Notes:
Pivot points can often act as both support and resistance. While they provide useful reference levels, in volatile markets, these levels may not always hold. Tight stop-losses are recommended if trading near these levels.
The 3DBP offers insight into past market behavior, and although it’s not guaranteed to act as support or resistance, it can help identify zones of interest in the short term.
This indicator is designed to provide a structured approach to price action analysis, incorporating widely-recognized methods like pivot points and trend detection, while adding unique elements like the 3DBP to enhance its utility.
Multi TimelinesMulti Timeline Indicator
The Customizable Multi-Line Indicator is a versatile tool designed to help traders mark specific dates and times directly on their charts with visually distinct vertical lines. This indicator provides three fully customizable lines, each equipped with its own unique settings for visibility, color, style, and width. It is ideal for traders who want to highlight key events, track important price levels, or organize their charts around time-based triggers.
Features:
Three Customizable Lines:
Each line can be toggled on or off independently, allowing for a clutter-free chart.
Fully configurable settings for each line:
Date and Time: Specify the exact timestamp for the line placement.
Color: Choose any color to distinguish between the lines.
Line Width: Adjustable line thickness for better visibility.
Line Style: Options include solid, dashed, and dotted lines.
User-Friendly Inputs:
Intuitive input settings enable quick customization without needing to modify the script.
Simple checkboxes to control line visibility.
Clean and Efficient Design:
No labels or annotations clutter the chart.
The indicator ensures all lines are drawn precisely at the specified timestamps.
Lightweight and Optimized:
Designed to run efficiently without slowing down your chart, even with multiple lines.
Use Cases:
Mark Key Events: Highlight earnings dates, news events, or market open/close times.
Track Important Price Levels: Align lines with specific price action triggers for enhanced analysis.
Organize Trading Sessions: Define the start and end of trading sessions with visual markers.
Reminders for Strategy Execution: Use lines as visual reminders for executing trading strategies at predefined times.
How to Use:
Add the indicator to your chart.
Use the input panel to configure each line:
Toggle visibility with the checkbox.
Set the desired timestamp for each line.
Customize the color, style, and width.
Adjust your chart view to align with your analysis.
Compliance with TradingView Guidelines:
This indicator:
Does not include proprietary calculations or intellectual property from other indicators.
Avoids misleading titles or claims of guaranteed performance.
Does not use or reference any external data feeds or signals.
Focuses solely on providing charting tools for visual organization and analysis.
Disclaimer:
This tool is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Murad Picks Target MCThe Murad Picks Target Market Cap Indicator is a custom TradingView tool designed for crypto traders and enthusiasts tracking tokens in the Murad Picks list. This indicator dynamically calculates and visualizes the price targets based on Murad Mahmudov's projected market capitalizations, allowing you to gauge each token's growth potential directly on your charts.
Indicator support tokens:
- SPX6900
- GIGA
- MOG
- POPCAT
- APU
- BITCOIN
- RETARDIO
- LOCKIN
Key Features :
Dynamic Target Price Lines:
- Displays horizontal lines representing the price when the token reaches its projected market cap.
- Automatically adjusts for the active chart symbol (e.g., SPX, MOG, APU, etc.).
X Multiplier Calculation:
- Shows how many times the current price must multiply to achieve the target price.
- Perfect for understanding relative growth potential.
Customizable Inputs:
- Easily update target market caps and circulating supply for each token.
- Adjust visuals such as line colors and styles.
Seamless Integration:
- Automatically adapts to the token you’re viewing (e.g., SPX, MOG, APU).
- Clean and visually intuitive, with labels marking targets.
FuTech : Earnings (All 269 Fundamental Metrics of Tradingview)FuTech : Earnings Indicator
The FuTech : Earnings Indicator is a revolutionary tool, offering the most comprehensive integration of all 269 fundamental financial metrics available from the TradingView platform.
This groundbreaking indicator is designed to empower financial researchers, traders, investors, and analysts with an unmatched depth of data, enabling superior analysis and decision-making.
Overview
"FuTech : Earnings Indicator" is the first-ever indicator to provide a holistic comparison of fundamental financial metrics for any stock, covering quarterly, yearly, and trailing twelve months (TTM) periods.
This tool brings together key financial data from income statements, balance sheets, cash flows, and other critical metrics found in company annual reports.
It also incorporates additional unique features like per-employee data, R&D expenses, and capital expenditures (CapEx), which are typically hidden within dense financial statements of Annual Reports.
---
Key Features and Capabilities
1. Comprehensive Financial Metrics
- "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" offers access to all 269 fundamental metrics available on TradingView platform. This includes widely used data such as revenue, profit margins, and EPS, alongside more niche metrics like R&D expenditure, employee efficiency, and financial scores developed by renowned analysts.
- Users can explore income statement data (e.g., net income, gross profit), balance sheet items (e.g., total assets, liabilities), cash flow metrics, and other financial statistics such as Altman Score, per employee expenses etc. in unparalleled detail.
2. Comparison Across Time Periods
- "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" allows users to analyze data for:
- Quarterly periods (e.g., Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4).
- Yearly comparisons for a broad historical view.
- TTM analysis to observe the most recent trends and developments.
- Users can select a minimum of 4 periods up to an unlimited range for detailed comparisons in both quarter.
3. Dynamic Data Display
- Users can select up to 5 key metrics alongside the stock price column to focus their analysis on the most relevant data points.
- Highlighting with green and red symbols offers an intuitive and visual representation:
- Green : Positive trends or improvements.
- Red : Negative trends or deteriorations.
4. Automated Averages
- "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" automatically calculates averages of selected metrics across the chosen periods. This feature helps users quickly identify performance trends and smooth out anomalies, enabling faster and more reliable research.
5. Designed for Research Excellence
- FuTech serves a wide audience, including:
- Corporate finance professionals who need a deep dive into financial metrics.
- Individual investors seeking robust tools for investment analysis.
- Broking companies and equity research analysts performing stock analysis.
- Traders looking to incorporate fundamental metrics into their strategies.
- Technical analysts seeking a better understanding of price behavior in relation to fundamentals.
- Fundamental research aspirants who want an edge in their learning process.
6. Unmatched Detail for Deeper Insights
- By pulling all 269 Financial metrics from the TradingView, "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" enables:
- Cross-comparison of a stock’s performance with its historical benchmarks.
- Evaluation of rare data like R&D expenses, CapEx trends, and employee efficiency ratios for enhanced investment insights.
- This ensures users can study stocks in greater depth than ever before.
7. Enhanced Usability
- Simple to use and visually appealing, "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" is designed with researchers in mind.
- Its intuitive interface ensures even novice users can navigate the wealth of data without feeling overwhelmed.
Applications of FuTech : Earnings Indicator
FuTech : Earnings Indicator is incredibly versatile and has applications in diverse fields of financial research and trading:
1. Corporate Finance
- Professionals in corporate finance can leverage "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" to benchmark company performance, study efficiency ratios, and evaluate financial health across various metrics.
2. Investors and Traders
- Long-term investors can use the tool to study the fundamental strengths of a stock before making buy-and-hold decisions.
- Traders can incorporate "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" into their analysis to align comprehensive fundamental trends with their targeted technical signals.
3. Equity Research Analysts
- Analysts can streamline their workflows by quickly identifying trends, outliers, and averages across large datasets.
4. Education and Research
- "FuTech : Earnings Indicator" is ideal for students and aspiring financial analysts who want a practical tool for understanding real-world data.
How FuTech : Earnings Indicator Stands Out
1. First-Ever Integration of All Financial Metrics
- It's an exclusive tool which offers the ability to explore all 269 financial metrics available on TradingView for a single stock research in-depth for quarters, years or TTM periods.
2. Period Customization
- Users have complete flexibility to select and analyze data across any range of time periods, allowing for customized insights tailored to specific research goals.
3. Data Visualization
- The intuitive use of color-coded symbols (green for positive trends, red for negative) makes complex data easy to interpret at a glance.
4. Actionable Insights
- The automated average calculations provide actionable insights for making informed decisions without manual computations.
5. Unique Metrics
- Metrics such as research and development costs, CapEx, and per-employee efficiency data offer unique angles that aren’t typically available in traditional analysis tools.
Why to Use FuTech : Earnings Indicator ?
1. Boost Your Research Power
- With FuTech, you can unlock a world of data that gives you the edge in analyzing stocks. Whether you’re a seasoned analyst or a beginner, this tool offers something for everyone.
2. Save Time and Effort
- The automated features and intuitive interface eliminate the need for time-consuming manual calculations and formatting.
3. Make Better Decisions
- "FuTech : Earnings Indicator's" detailed comparison capabilities and insightful visual aids allow for more accurate assessments of a stock’s performance and potential.
4. Broad Appeal
- From individual investors to financial institutions, FuTech is a valuable tool for anyone in the world of finance.
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Conclusion
- The FuTech : Earnings Indicator is a must-have for anyone serious about financial analysis.
- It combines the depth of all 269 fundamental metrics with intuitive tools for comparison, visualization, and calculation.
- Designed for ease of use and powerful insights, FuTech : Earnings Indicator is set to transform the way financial data is analyzed and understood.
Thank you !
Jai Swaminarayan Dasna Das !
He Hari ! Bas Ek Tu Raji Tha !
Kalman PredictorThe **Kalman Predictor** indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders looking to enhance their market analysis by smoothing price data and projecting future price movements. This script implements a Kalman filter, a statistical method for noise reduction, to dynamically estimate price trends and velocity. Combined with ATR-based confidence bands, it provides actionable insights into potential price movement, while offering clear trend and momentum visualization.
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#### **Key Features**:
1. **Kalman Filter Smoothing**:
- Dynamically estimates the current price state and velocity to filter out market noise.
- Projects three future price levels (`Next Bar`, `Next +2`, `Next +3`) based on velocity.
2. **Dynamic Confidence Bands**:
- Confidence bands are calculated using ATR (Average True Range) to reflect market volatility.
- Visualizes potential price deviation from projected levels.
3. **Trend Visualization**:
- Color-coded prediction dots:
- **Green**: Indicates an upward trend (positive velocity).
- **Red**: Indicates a downward trend (negative velocity).
- Dynamically updated label displaying the current trend and velocity value.
4. **User Customization**:
- Inputs to adjust the process and measurement noise for the Kalman filter (`q` and `r`).
- Configurable ATR multiplier for confidence bands.
- Toggleable trend label with adjustable positioning.
---
#### **How It Works**:
1. **Kalman Filter Core**:
- The Kalman filter continuously updates the estimated price state and velocity based on real-time price changes.
- Projections are based on the current price trend (velocity) and extend into the future (Next Bar, +2, +3).
2. **Confidence Bands**:
- Calculated using ATR to provide a dynamic range around the projected future prices.
- Indicates potential volatility and helps traders assess risk-reward scenarios.
3. **Trend Label**:
- Updates dynamically on the last bar to show:
- Current trend direction (Up/Down).
- Velocity value, providing insight into the expected magnitude of the price movement.
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#### **How to Use**:
- **Trend Analysis**:
- Observe the direction and spacing of the prediction dots relative to current candles.
- Larger spacing indicates a potential strong move, while clustering suggests consolidation.
- **Risk Management**:
- Use the confidence bands to gauge potential price volatility and set stop-loss or take-profit levels accordingly.
- **Pullback Detection**:
- Look for flattening or clustering of dots during trends as a signal of potential pullbacks or reversals.
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#### **Customizable Inputs**:
- **Kalman Filter Parameters**:
- `lookback`: Adjusts the smoothing window.
- `q`: Process noise (higher values make the filter more reactive to changes).
- `r`: Measurement noise (controls sensitivity to price deviations).
- **Confidence Bands**:
- `band_multiplier`: Multiplies ATR to define the range of confidence bands.
- **Visualization**:
- `show_label`: Option to toggle the trend label.
- `label_offset`: Adjusts the label’s distance from the price for better visibility.
---
#### **Examples of Use**:
- **Scalping**: Use on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute) to detect short-term price trends and reversals.
- **Swing Trading**: Identify pullbacks or continuations on higher timeframes (e.g., 4-hour, daily) by observing the prediction dots and confidence bands.
- **Risk Assessment**: Confidence bands help visualize potential price volatility, aiding in the placement of stops and targets.
---
#### **Notes for Traders**:
- The **Kalman Predictor** does not predict the future with certainty but provides a statistically informed estimate of price movement.
- Confidence bands are based on historical volatility and should be used as guidelines, not guarantees.
- Always combine this tool with other analysis techniques for optimal results.
---
This script is open-source, and the Kalman filter logic has been implemented uniquely to integrate noise reduction with dynamic confidence band visualization. If you find this indicator useful, feel free to share your feedback and experiences!
---
#### **Credits**:
This script was developed leveraging the statistical principles of Kalman filtering and is entirely original. It incorporates ATR for dynamic confidence band calculations to enhance trader usability and market adaptability.
SMT Divergence ICT 01 [TradingFinder] Smart Money Technique🔵 Introduction
SMT Divergence (short for Smart Money Technique Divergence) is a trading technique in the ICT Concepts methodology that focuses on identifying divergences between two positively correlated assets in financial markets.
These divergences occur when two assets that should move in the same direction move in opposite directions. Identifying these divergences can help traders spot potential reversal points and trend changes.
Bullish and Bearish divergences are clearly visible when an asset forms a new high or low, and the correlated asset fails to do so. This technique is applicable in markets like Forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies, and can be used as a valid signal for deciding when to enter or exit trades.
Bullish SMT Divergence : This type of divergence occurs when one asset forms a higher low while the correlated asset forms a lower low. This divergence is typically a sign of weakness in the downtrend and can act as a signal for a trend reversal to the upside.
Bearish SMT Divergence : This type of divergence occurs when one asset forms a higher high while the correlated asset forms a lower high. This divergence usually indicates weakness in the uptrend and can act as a signal for a trend reversal to the downside.
🔵 How to Use
SMT Divergence is an analytical technique that identifies divergences between two correlated assets in financial markets.
This technique is used when two assets that should move in the same direction move in opposite directions.
Identifying these divergences can help you pinpoint reversal points and trend changes in the market.
🟣 Bullish SMT Divergence
This divergence occurs when one asset forms a higher low while the correlated asset forms a lower low. This divergence indicates weakness in the downtrend and can signal a potential price reversal to the upside.
In this case, when the correlated asset is forming a lower low, and the main asset is moving lower but the correlated asset fails to continue the downward trend, there is a high probability of a trend reversal to the upside.
🟣 Bearish SMT Divergence
Bearish divergence occurs when one asset forms a higher high while the correlated asset forms a lower high. This type of divergence indicates weakness in the uptrend and can signal a potential trend reversal to the downside.
When the correlated asset fails to make a new high, this divergence may be a sign of a trend reversal to the downside.
🟣 Confirming Signals with Correlation
To improve the accuracy of the signals, use assets with strong correlation. Forex pairs like OANDA:EURUSD and OANDA:GBPUSD , or cryptocurrencies like COINBASE:BTCUSD and COINBASE:ETHUSD , or commodities such as gold ( FX:XAUUSD ) and silver ( FX:XAGUSD ) typically have significant correlation. Identifying divergences between these assets can provide a strong signal for a trend change.
🔵 Settings
Second Symbol : This setting allows you to select another asset for comparison with the primary asset. By default, "XAUUSD" (Gold) is set as the second symbol, but you can change it to any currency pair, stock, or cryptocurrency. For example, you can choose currency pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD to identify divergences between these two assets.
Divergence Fractal Periods : This parameter defines the number of past candles to consider when identifying divergences. The default value is 2, but you can change it to suit your preferences. This setting allows you to detect divergences more accurately by selecting a greater number of candles.
Bullish Divergence Line : Displays a line showing bullish divergence from the lows.
Bearish Divergence Line : Displays a line showing bearish divergence from the highs.
Bullish Divergence Label : Displays the "+SMT" label for bullish divergences.
Bearish Divergence Label : Displays the "-SMT" label for bearish divergences.
🔵 Conclusion
SMT Divergence is an effective tool for identifying trend changes and reversal points in financial markets based on identifying divergences between two correlated assets. This technique helps traders receive more accurate signals for market entry and exit by analyzing bullish and bearish divergences.
Identifying these divergences can provide opportunities to capitalize on trend changes in Forex, stocks, and cryptocurrency markets. Using SMT Divergence along with risk management and confirming signals with other technical analysis tools can improve the accuracy of trading decisions and reduce risks from sudden market changes.
Icaro [VekiSeba]
Icaro Indicator: Monitoring Price Extensions
Overview
The Icarus Indicator is a tool designed to help traders identify critical points in the price movements of financial assets. Inspired by the Greek myth of Icarus , this indicator alerts on potential exhaustions in bullish movements or significant price extensions. It is ideal for traders looking to optimize profitability and make strategic decisions on when to exit a position, thereby minimizing the risk of dramatic price reversals.
How the Indicator Works: The Icarus Indicator combines various volatility and trend metrics to provide signals:
ATR (Average True Range): Measures the asset’s volatility, providing insight into the intensity of price movements. This component is crucial for understanding the strength behind the asset’s fluctuations.
Gain from Average Trend: This metric calculates how much the current price has deviated from an average trend line. It helps identify how extended or overvalued the price might be in relation to its overall trend.
ATR Acceleration: Assesses how the pace of volatility change compares to its recent average, indicating rapid changes in volatility that might suggest an increase in momentum or an early warning of overextension.
Visual Signals:
Wing Momentum (Purple Cross): Indicates a significant increase in volatility acceleration, suggesting that the price may be entering a phase of unusual momentum. There is also the potential that this signal could lead to a correction.
Solar Roof (Red Circle): Activates when the price reaches an exhaustion level as defined by the user’s threshold, indicating a possible turning point or correction.
NASDAQ:SMCI
Configuration and Use: Users can customize the "Flight Threshold" to adjust the sensitivity of the indicator to their specific trading strategies. Modifying this threshold allows the indicator to be less or more reactive to the asset’s fluctuations.
Originality and Utility of the Indicator: Icarus stands out from other indicators with its unique focus on measuring volatility, offering a dynamic perspective on the asset's conditions. A notable feature of Icarus is its ability to reduce the number of false signals through its specialized formula, which prioritizes accuracy over the frequency of alerts. Although this may mean that the indicator does not react to all price extensions and might occasionally overlook some, it is intentionally designed to provide a higher percentage of correct signals when it does issue an alert. This "lower frequency, higher accuracy" approach is particularly valuable for traders who prefer the quality of signals over quantity, thus minimizing reactions to incorrect market movements and optimizing trading decisions based on highly reliable indicators. However, it is important to note that no indicator, including Icarus, can guarantee 100% effectiveness. Indeed, we cannot quantify the exact success rate of Icarus, as its performance can vary widely depending on the volatility of each asset and the market context at any given time.
M2 Money Shift for Bitcoin [SAKANE]M2 Money Shift for Bitcoin was developed to visualize the impact of M2 Money, a macroeconomic indicator, on the Bitcoin market and to support trade analysis.
Bitcoin price fluctuations have a certain correlation with cycles in M2 money supply.In particular, it has been noted that changes in M2 supply can affect the bitcoin price 70 days in advance.Very high correlations have been observed in recent years in particular, making it useful as a supplemental analytical tool for trading.
Support for M2 data from multiple countries
M2 supply data from the U.S., Europe, China, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, and India are integrated and all are displayed in U.S. dollar equivalents.
Slide function
Using the "Slide Days Forward" setting, M2 data can be slid up to 500 days, allowing for flexible analysis that takes into account the time difference from the bitcoin price.
Plotting Total Liquidity
Plot total liquidity (in trillions of dollars) by summing the M2 supply of multiple countries.
How to use
After applying the indicator to the chart, activate the M2 data for the required country from the settings screen. 2.
2. adjust "Slide Days Forward" to analyze the relationship between changes in M2 supply and bitcoin price
3. refer to the Gross Liquidity plot to build a trading strategy that takes into account macroeconomic influences.
Notes.
This indicator is an auxiliary tool for trade analysis and does not guarantee future price trends.
The relationship between M2 supply and bitcoin price depends on many factors and should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods.
Simple Decesion Matrix Classification Algorithm [SS]Hello everyone,
It has been a while since I posted an indicator, so thought I would share this project I did for fun.
This indicator is an attempt to develop a pseudo Random Forest classification decision matrix model for Pinescript.
This is not a full, robust Random Forest model by any stretch of the imagination, but it is a good way to showcase how decision matrices can be applied to trading and within Pinescript.
As to not market this as something it is not, I am simply calling it the "Simple Decision Matrix Classification Algorithm". However, I have stolen most of the aspects of this machine learning algo from concepts of Random Forest modelling.
How it works:
With models like Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Machine Learning (GBM), which are commonly used in Machine Learning Classification Tasks (MLCTs), this model operates similarity to the basic concepts shared amongst those modelling types. While it is not very similar to SVM, it is very similar to RF and GBM, in that it uses a "voting" system.
What do I mean by voting system?
How most classification MLAs work is by feeding an input dataset to an algorithm. The algorithm sorts this data, categorizes it, then introduces something called a confusion matrix (essentially sorting the data in no apparently order as to prevent over-fitting and introduce "confusion" to the algorithm to ensure that it is not just following a trend).
From there, the data is called upon based on current data inputs (so say we are using RSI and Z-Score, the current RSI and Z-Score is compared against other RSI's and Z-Scores that the model has saved). The model will process this information and each "tree" or "node" will vote. Then a cumulative overall vote is casted.
How does this MLA work?
This model accepts 2 independent variables. In order to keep things simple, this model was kept as a three node model. This means that there are 3 separate votes that go in to get the result. A vote is casted for each of the two independent variables and then a cumulative vote is casted for the overall verdict (the result of the model's prediction).
The model actually displays this system diagrammatically and it will likely be easier to understand if we look at the diagram to ground the example:
In the diagram, at the very top we have the classification variable that we are trying to predict. In this case, we are trying to predict whether there will be a breakout/breakdown outside of the normal ATR range (this is either yes or no question, hence a classification task).
So the question forms the basis of the input. The model will track at which points the ATR range is exceeded to the upside or downside, as well as the other variables that we wish to use to predict these exceedences. The ATR range forms the basis of all the data flowing into the model.
Then, at the second level, you will see we are using Z-Score and RSI to predict these breaks. The circle will change colour according to "feature importance". Feature importance basically just means that the indicator has a strong impact on the outcome. The stronger the importance, the more green it will be, the weaker, the more red it will be.
We can see both RSI and Z-Score are green and thus we can say they are strong options for predicting a breakout/breakdown.
So then we move down to the actual voting mechanisms. You will see the 2 pink boxes. These are the first lines of voting. What is happening here is the model is identifying the instances that are most similar and whether the classification task we have assigned (remember out ATR exceedance classifier) was either true or false based on RSI and Z-Score.
These are our 2 nodes. They both cast an individual vote. You will see in this case, both cast a vote of 1. The options are either 1 or 0. A vote of 1 means "Yes" or "Breakout likely".
However, this is not the only voting the model does. The model does one final vote based on the 2 votes. This is shown in the purple box. We can see the final vote and result at the end with the orange circle. It is 1 which means a range exceedance is anticipated and the most likely outcome.
The Data Table Component
The model has many moving parts. I have tried to represent the pivotal functions diagrammatically, but some other important aspects and background information must be obtained from the companion data table.
If we bring back our diagram from above:
We can see the data table to the left.
The data table contains 2 sections, one for each independent variable. In this case, our independent variables are RSI and Z-Score.
The data table will provide you with specifics about the independent variables, as well as about the model accuracy and outcome.
If we take a look at the first row, it simply indicates which independent variable it is looking at. If we go down to the next row where it reads "Weighted Impact", we can see a corresponding percent. The "weighted impact" is the amount of representation each independent variable has within the voting scheme. So in this case, we can see its pretty equal, 45% and 55%, This tells us that there is a slight higher representation of z-score than RSI but nothing to worry about.
If there was a major over-respresentation of greater than 30 or 40%, then the model would risk being skewed and voting too heavily in favour of 1 variable over the other.
If we move down from there we will see the next row reads "independent accuracy". The voting of each independent variable's accuracy is considered separately. This is one way we can determine feature importance, by seeing how well one feature augments the accuracy. In this case, we can see that RSI has the greatest importance, with an accuracy of around 87% at predicting breakouts. That makes sense as RSI is a momentum based oscillator.
Then if we move down one more, we will see what each independent feature (node) has voted for. In this case, both RSI and Z-Score voted for 1 (Breakout in our case).
You can weigh these in collaboration, but its always important to look at the final verdict of the model, which if we move down, we can see the "Model prediction" which is "Bullish".
If you are using the ATR breakout, the model cannot distinguish between "Bullish" or "Bearish", must that a "Breakout" is likely, either bearish or bullish. However, for the other classification tasks this model can do, the results are either Bullish or Bearish.
Using the Function:
Okay so now that all that technical stuff is out of the way, let's get into using the function. First of all this function innately provides you with 3 possible classification tasks. These include:
1. Predicting Red or Green Candle
2. Predicting Bullish / Bearish ATR
3. Predicting a Breakout from the ATR range
The possible independent variables include:
1. Stochastics,
2. MFI,
3. RSI,
4. Z-Score,
5. EMAs,
6. SMAs,
7. Volume
The model can only accept 2 independent variables, to operate within the computation time limits for pine execution.
Let's quickly go over what the numbers in the diagram mean:
The numbers being pointed at with the yellow arrows represent the cases the model is sorting and voting on. These are the most identical cases and are serving as the voting foundation for the model.
The numbers being pointed at with the pink candle is the voting results.
Extrapolating the functions (For Pine Developers:
So this is more of a feature application, so feel free to customize it to your liking and add additional inputs. But here are some key important considerations if you wish to apply this within your own code:
1. This is a BINARY classification task. The prediction must either be 0 or 1.
2. The function consists of 3 separate functions, the 2 first functions serve to build the confusion matrix and then the final "random_forest" function serves to perform the computations. You will need all 3 functions for implementation.
3. The model can only accept 2 independent variables.
I believe that is the function. Hopefully this wasn't too confusing, it is very statsy, but its a fun function for me! I use Random Forest excessively in R and always like to try to convert R things to Pinescript.
Hope you enjoy!
Safe trades everyone!
Weekly Bullish Pattern DetectorThis script is a TradingView Pine Script designed to detect a specific bullish candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. Below is a detailed breakdown of its components:
1. Purpose
The script identifies a four-candle bullish pattern where:
The first candle is a long green (bullish) candlestick.
The second and third candles are small-bodied candles, signifying consolidation or indecision.
The fourth candle is another long green (bullish) candlestick.
When this pattern is detected, the script:
Marks the chart with a visual label.
Optionally triggers an alert to notify the trader.
2. Key Features
Overlay on Chart:
indicator("Weekly Bullish Pattern Detector", overlay=true) ensures the indicator draws directly on the price chart.
Customizable Inputs:
length (Body Size Threshold):
Defines the minimum percentage of the total range that qualifies as a "long" candle body (default: 14%).
smallCandleThreshold (Small Candle Body Threshold):
Defines the maximum percentage of the total range that qualifies as a "small" candle body (default: 10%).
Candlestick Property Calculations:
bodySize: Measures the absolute size of the candle body (close - open).
totalRange: Measures the total high-to-low range of the candle.
bodyPercentage: Calculates the proportion of the body size relative to the total range ((bodySize / totalRange) * 100).
isGreen and isRed: Identify bullish (green) or bearish (red) candles based on their open and close prices.
Pattern Conditions:
longGreenCandle:
Checks if the candle is bullish (isGreen) and its body percentage exceeds the defined length threshold.
smallCandle:
Identifies small-bodied candles where the body percentage is below the smallCandleThreshold.
consolidation:
Confirms the second and third candles are both small-bodied (smallCandle and smallCandle ).
Bullish Pattern Detection:
bullishPattern:
Detects the full four-candle sequence:
The first candle (longGreenCandle ) is a long green candle.
The second and third candles (consolidation) are small-bodied.
The fourth candle (longGreenCandle) is another long green candle.
Visualization:
plotshape(bullishPattern):
Draws a green label ("Pattern") below the price chart whenever the pattern is detected.
Alert Notification:
alertcondition(bullishPattern):
Sends an alert with the message "Bullish Pattern Detected on Weekly Chart" whenever the pattern is found.
3. How It Works
Evaluates Candle Properties:
For each weekly candle, the script calculates its size, range, and body percentage.
Identifies Each Component of the Pattern:
Checks for a long green candle (first and fourth).
Verifies the presence of two small-bodied candles (second and third).
Detects and Marks the Pattern:
Confirms the sequence and marks the chart with a label if the pattern is complete.
Sends Alerts:
Notifies the trader when the pattern is detected.
4. Use Cases
This script is ideal for:
Swing Traders:
Spotting weekly patterns that indicate potential bullish continuations.
Breakout Traders:
Identifying consolidation zones followed by upward momentum.
Pattern Recognition:
Automatically detecting a commonly used bullish formation.
5. Key Considerations
Timeframe: Works best on weekly charts.
Customization: The thresholds for "long" and "small" candles can be adjusted to suit different markets or volatility levels.
Limitations:
It doesn't confirm the pattern's success; further analysis (e.g., volume, support/resistance levels) may be required for validation
ATR% Multiple from Key Moving AverageThis script gives signal when the ATR% multiple from any chosen moving average is beyond the configurable threshold value. This indicator quantifies how extended the stock is from a given key moving average.
A lot of traders use ATR% multiple from 10DMA, 21EMA, 50SMA or 200SMA to determine how extended a stock is and accordingly sell partials or exit. By default the indicator takes 50SMA and when the ATR% multiple is greater than 7 then it gives the signal to take partials. You can back test this indicator with previous trades and determine the ideal threshold for the signal. For small and midcaps a threshold of 7 to 10 ATR% multiples from 50SMA is where partials can be taken while large caps can revert to mean even earlier at 3 to 5 ATR% multiples from 50SMA.
You can modify this script and use it anyway you please as long as you make it opensource on TradingView.
Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 TV, I present you HTES aka Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing, designed by Holt & Winters in the US, assembled by me in Saint P. I apply exponential smoothing individually to the data itself, then to residuals from the fitted values, and lastly to one-point forecast (OPF) errors, hence 'hybrid'. At the same time, the method is a closed-form solution and purely online, no need to make any recalculations & optimize anything, so the method is O(1).
^^ historical OPFs and one-point forecasting interval plotted instead of fitted values and prediction interval
Before the How-to, first let me tell you some non-obvious things about Triple Exponential smoothing (and about Exponential Smoothing in general) that not many catch. Expo smoothing seems very straightforward and obvious, but if you look deeper...
1) The whole point of exponential smoothing is its incremental/online nature, and its O(1) algorithm complexity, making it dope for high-frequency streaming data that is also univariate and has no weights. Consequently:
- Any hybrid models that involve expo smoothing and any type of ML models like gradient boosting applied to residuals rarely make much sense business-wise: if you have resources to boost the residuals, you prolly have resources to use something instead of expo smoothing;
- It also concerns the fashion of using optimizers to pick smoothing parameters; honestly, if you use this approach, you have to retrain on each datapoint, which is crazy in a streaming context. If you're not in a streaming context, why expo smoothing? What makes more sense is either picking smoothing parameters once, guided by exogenous info, or using dynamic ones calculated in a minimalistic and elegant way (more on that in further drops).
2) No matter how 'right' you choose the smoothing parameters, all the resulting components (level, trend, seasonal) are not pure; each of them contains a bit of info from the other components, this is just how non-sequential expo smoothing works. You gotta know this if you wanna use expo smoothing to decompose your time series into separate components. The only pure component there, lol, is the residuals;
3) Given what I've just said, treating the level (that does contain trend and seasonal components partially) as the resulting fit is a mistake. The resulting fit is level (l) + trend (b) + seasonal (s). And from this fit, you calculate residuals;
4) The residuals component is not some kind of bad thing; it is simply the component that contains info you consciously decide not to include in your model for whatever reason;
5) Forecasting Errors and Residuals from fitted values are 2 different things. The former are deltas between the forecasts you've made and actual values you've observed, the latter are simply differences between actual datapoints and in-sample fitted values;
6) Residuals are used for in-sample prediction intervals, errors for out-of-sample forecasting intervals;
7) Choosing between single, double, or triple expo smoothing should not be based exclusively on the nature of your data, but on what you need to do as well. For example:
- If you have trending seasonal data and you wanna do forecasting exclusively within the expo smoothing framework, then yes, you need Triple Exponential Smoothing;
- If you wanna use prediction intervals for generating trend-trading signals and you disregard seasonality, then you need single (simple) expo smoothing, even on trending data. Otherwise, the trend component will be included in your model's fitted values → prediction intervals.
8) Kind of not non-obvious, but when you put one smoothing parameter to zero, you basically disregard this component. E.g., in triple expo smoothing, when you put gamma and beta to zero, you basically end up with single exponential smoothing.
^^ data smoothing, beta and gamma zeroed out, forecasting steps = 0
About the implementation
* I use a simple power transform that results in a log transform with lambda = 0 instead of the mainstream-used transformers (if you put lambda on 2 in Box-Cox, you won't get a power of 2 transform)
* Separate set of smoothing parameters for data, residuals, and errors smoothing
* Separate band multipliers for residuals and errors
* Both typical error and typical residuals get multiplied by math.sqrt(math.pi / 2) in order to approach standard deviation so you can ~use Z values and get more or less corresponding probabilities
* In script settings → style, you can switch on/off plotting of many things that get calculated internally:
- You can visualize separate components (just remember they are not pure);
- You can switch off fit and switch on OPF plotting;
- You can plot residuals and their exponentially smoothed typical value to pick the smoothing parameters for both data and residuals;
- Or you might plot errors and play with data smoothing parameters to minimize them (consult SAE aka Sum of Absolute Errors plot);
^^ nuff said
More ideas on how to use the thing
1) Use Double Exponential Smoothing (data gamma = 0) to detrend your time series for further processing (Fourier likes at least weakly stationary data);
2) Put single expo smoothing on your strategy/subaccount equity chart (data alpha = data beta = 0), set prediction interval deviation multiplier to 1, run your strat live on simulator, start executing on real market when equity on simulator hits upper deviation (prediction interval), stop trading if equity hits lower deviation on simulator. Basically, let the strat always run on simulator, but send real orders to a real market when the strat is successful on your simulator;
3) Set up the model to minimize one-point forecasting errors, put error forecasting steps to 1, now you're doing nowcasting;
4) Forecast noisy trending sine waves for fun.
^^ nuff said 2
All Good TV ∞
