Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Forecasting
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
VIX Implied MovesKey Features:
Three Timeframe Bands:
Daily: Blue bands showing ±1σ expected move
Weekly: Green bands showing ±1σ expected move
30-Day: Red bands showing ±1σ expected move
Calculation Methodology:
Uses VIX's annualized volatility converted to specific timeframes using square root of time rule
Trading day convention (252 days/year)
Band width = Price × (VIX/100) ÷ √(number of periods)
Visual Features:
Colored semi-transparent backgrounds between bands
Progressive line thickness (thinner for shorter timeframes)
Real-time updates as VIX and ES prices change
Example Calculation (VIX=20, ES=5000):
Daily move = 5000 × (20/100)/√252 ≈ ±63 points
Weekly move = 5000 × (20/100)/√50 ≈ ±141 points
Monthly move = 5000 × (20/100)/√21 ≈ ±218 points
This indicator helps visualize expected price ranges based on current volatility conditions, with wider bands indicating higher market uncertainty. The probabilistic ranges represent 68% confidence levels (1 standard deviation) derived from options pricing.
Auto Gap DetectorThis indicator uses previous sessions open/close (whichever is closest) and the new sessions open to automatically detect both a gap up or gap down on any timeframe but is intended for use on on the daily timeframe ONLY. This is not the traditional definition of a gap but the one that i use for my strategy and has been more consistent and conservative than others.
We have also provided instructions on how to create alerts for these indicators below.
Happy Trading!
White Boxes: indicate an overnight gap up/down that is incomplete or not filled.
Green Boxes: When a gap fill is complete the white box will be changed to a green box so that it may still be used as a reference for support and resistance on following sessions.
*Color, transparency and borders of boxes can be customized in settings.
Set Up Alerts
Now, let’s make sure you get notified when a gap has occurred and when it has been filled happens:
Open the Alerts Menu
On the chart, click the bell icon (top right of the screen) to create an alert.
Configure the Auto Gap indicator
In the “Condition” dropdown, select “Auto Gap indicator".
Below that, select “Overnight Gap Detected or Overnight Gap Filled.”
*Note: if you want to detect when both a gap has been detected and when it has been filled you must create two separate alerts.
Set “Once Per Bar Close” in the next dropdown (this ensures it only triggers after the period ends, avoiding false signals mid-bar).
Choose how you want to be notified (e.g., popup, email, or phone app—set this under “Notifications”).
Configure the Auto Gap Alert
Click the bell icon again to create a second alert.
Feel free to leave comments requesting any upgrades or potential bugs. Thank you!
Coinbase Premium IndexThe Coinbase Premium Index is a measure of the percentage difference between the price of any coin on Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and the price on Binance (USDT trading pair). It helps differentiate between global and US-specific market sentiment
Major benefits:
Choose between USD or USDC for the Coinbase pair — they can behave differently in rare but actionable situations.
Apply it to any coin, not just BTC. Open any USDT-based chart on any exchange, and the script will automatically compare it with Coinbase’s USD or USDC price.
Highlight only active U.S. trading hours, cutting out irrelevant noise.
Display key thresholds that signal buying or selling pressure.
Internal BOS X FVG Algorithms - 1 Visi TraderInternal BOS X FVG Algorithms,
This strategy is based on 2 momentum combinations:
• Internal Break of Structure was formed together with Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Formula of Internal BOS X FVG Algorithms:
1. Break (Internal BOS) X Bullish FVG = Zone for BUY Setup
2. Break (Internal BOS) X Bearish FVG = Zone for SELL Setup
// ----------- Add-ons Setting ----------- //
Setting for Internal BOS X FVG Algorithms:
---------
#1: Internal Break of Structure Settings,
• Internal Swing:
The number of left and right Swing Intervals that are checked when searching for Swing Points. More Values = Less Swing Points plotted to be potential Internal BOS and Less Values = More Swing Points plotted to be potential Internal BOS.
• Internal BOS Color:
You can change the color of dotted line and text for Internal BOS ("Break") according to your favorites layout.
#2: Fair Value Gap Settings,
• FVG Min. Range (In Pips):
Input minimum range of Fair Value Gap in Pips, more value = less zone results.
• FVG Max. Range (In Pips):
Input maximum range of Fair Value Gap in Pips, less value = less zone results.
• Extended Right - FVG:
You can change the value of extended fair value gap zone according to your best preferences.
#3: FVG Color Settings,
• Bullish FVG:
Change color FVG for Bullish Fair Value Gap Zone.
• Bearish FVG:
Change color FVG for Bearish Fair Value Gap Zone.
#4: Mode FVG,
• FVG Variations:
- Global FVG = All Variations of Fair Value Gap Category
- Specific FVG = Variation based on last of 2 FVG's Candles in same color
#5: Trading Session,
• Session Hours:
You can adjust the trading hour according to the best session and volatility of pair assets that you want to trades.
---------
How to Entry (Instructions):
1. Buy Positions = Internal BOS ("Break") form together with Bullish FVG, wait for pullback on FVG Zone and then you can open positions. Set Stop Loss (SL) below FVG Zone and set Take Profit (TP) in minimum 1:2 RR - if price hit 1:1 RR you can set Breakeven for managing the trading risk.
2. Sell Positions = Internal BOS ("Break") form together with Bearish FVG, wait for pullback on FVG Zone and then you can open positions. Set Stop Loss (SL) above FVG Zone and set Take Profit (TP) in minimum 1:2 RR - if price hit 1:1 RR you can set Breakeven for managing the trading risk.
*Notes:
The best pair asset for this strategy is on Gold (XAU/USD) at NY Sessions (19.00 - 22.00 GMT+7) - Timeframe M1 (1 Minute).
--------
Best Regards,
- 1 VISI TRADER
Trading for Prosperity!
--------
DISCLAIMER: No reselling or any other forms of use are authorized for our documents, script / strategy, and the information published with them. This informational planning script / strategy is strictly for individual use and educational purposes only. This is not financial or investment advice. Investments are always made at your own risk and are based on your personal judgement. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur. Please invest wisely.*
ADR Checker - Breakouts📈 ADR Checker – Breakouts
Gain the edge by knowing when a stock has already made its move.
🚀 What It Does:
The ADR Checker - Breakouts is a powerful yet simple visual tool that helps traders instantly assess whether a stock has already exceeded its Average Daily Range (ADR) for the day — a critical piece of information for momentum traders, swing traders, and especially those following breakout, VCP, or CANSLIM strategies.
Using a customizable on-screen table that always stays in view (regardless of zoom or chart scaling), this script shows:
✅ Average ADR% – 20-day average range, calculated in %.
📊 Today’s Move – how much the stock has moved today.
🔥 % of Avg ADR – today's move relative to its historical average, with live color feedback:
🟥 Over 100% (Overextended – danger!)
🟧 70-100% (Caution zone)
🟩 Below 70% (Room to move)
💡 Why It Matters:
One of the most overlooked mistakes by breakout traders is entering a trade after the move has already happened. If a stock has already moved more than its typical daily range, the odds of further continuation sharply decrease, while the risk of pullback or chop increases.
With this tool, you can:
🚫 Avoid chasing extended breakouts
🎯 Time entries before the real move
⚠️ Quickly assess risk/reward potential intraday
🧠 Example Use Case:
Imagine you're watching a classic VCP setup or flat base breakout. The stock breaks out on volume—but when you check this indicator, you see:
Today’s Move: 7.2%
Avg ADR: 5.3%
% of ADR: 135% 🟥
This tells you the stock is already well beyond its average daily range. While it may continue higher, odds now favor a consolidation, shakeout, or pullback. This is your cue to wait for a better entry or pass entirely.
On the flip side, if the breakout just started and the % of ADR is still under 50%, you have confirmation that there’s room to run — giving you more confidence to enter early.
⚙️ Fully Customizable:
Choose position on screen (top/bottom left/right)
Customize text color, background, and size
🔧 Install This Tool and:
✅ Stop chasing extended moves
✅ Add discipline to your entries
✅ Improve your breakout win rate
Perfect for VCP, CANSLIM, and BREAKOUT traders who want a clean, edge-enhancing visual guide.
Dynamic CAGR LineIndicator: Dynamic CAGR Line
Overview
This Pine Script (version 6) creates a custom indicator called "Dynamic CAGR Moving Line," designed to calculate and display the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in percentage terms for a financial instrument, such as a stock or cryptocurrency, based on a user-defined lookback period (default: 5 years). Unlike traditional overlays that plot directly on the price chart, this indicator appears in a separate pane below the chart, providing a clear visual of how the CAGR evolves over time with each new candle.
Purpose
The indicator helps traders and investors analyze the annualized growth rate of an asset’s price over a specified historical period. By plotting the CAGR as a percentage in a separate pane, users can easily track how the growth rate changes as new price data is added, offering insights into long-term performance trends without cluttering the price chart.
How It Works
User Input:
The script begins with an input parameter, lookback_years, allowing users to define the number of years (e.g., 5) to look back for the CAGR calculation. This is a floating-point value with a minimum of 1 and a step of 0.5, adjustable via the indicator’s settings in TradingView.
Timeframe Conversion:
Assuming a daily chart, the script converts the lookback years into a number of bars using bars_per_year = 252 (the average number of trading days in a year). The total lookback period in bars is calculated as lookback_bars = math.round(lookback_years * bars_per_year). For example, 5 years equals approximately 1260 bars.
Price Data:
For each candle, the start_price is fetched from the closing price lookback_bars ago (e.g., the close price from 5 years prior), using close .
The end_price is the current candle’s closing price, accessed via close.
CAGR Calculation:
The total return is computed as (end_price - start_price) / start_price, measuring the percentage change from the start price to the current price.
To avoid division-by-zero errors, a conditional check ensures start_price != 0; if it is, the return defaults to 0.
The CAGR is then calculated using the formula: math.pow(1 + total_return, 1 / lookback_years) - 1, which annualizes the total return over the lookback period.
The result is converted to a percentage by multiplying by 100 (cagr_percent = cagr * 100).
Plotting:
The CAGR percentage is plotted as a blue line in a separate pane using plot(). The line only appears after enough data exists (bar_index >= lookback_bars), otherwise it plots na (not available).
A label is added for each candle, displaying the current CAGR percentage (e.g., "CAGR: 5.23%") near the plotted value, styled with a blue background and white text.
Usage
Chart Setup: Apply the indicator to a daily chart with sufficient historical data (e.g., more than 5 years for the default setting). It’s designed for daily timeframes but can be adapted for others by adjusting bars_per_year (e.g., 52 for weekly).
Interpretation: A positive CAGR (e.g., 5%) indicates annualized growth, while a negative value (e.g., -2%) shows an annualized decline. A flat line at 0% suggests no net change over the lookback period.
Customization: Adjust lookback_years in the settings to analyze different periods (e.g., 3 or 10 years).
Notes
Ensure your chart has enough data to cover the lookback period, or the line won’t appear until sufficient bars are available.
For debugging, you can temporarily plot start_price and end_price on the main chart to verify the calculation inputs.
Fibonacci Forecast IndicatorThis indicator projects potential price movements into the future based on user-defined Fibonacci-period moving averages. By default, it calculates Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for the 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21 bars (though you can customize these values). For each SMA, it measures the distance between the current closing price and that SMA, then extends the price forward by the same distance.
Key Features
1. Fibonacci MAs:
- Uses Fibonacci numbers (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) for SMA calculations by default.
- Fully customizable periods to fit different trading styles.
2. Forecast Projection:
- If the current price is above a given SMA, the forecast line extends higher (bullish bias).
- If the current price is below the SMA, the forecast line extends lower (bearish bias).
- Forecast lines are anchored at the current bar and project forward according to the same Fibonacci intervals.
3. Clean Visualization:
- Draws a series of connected line segments from the current bar’s close to each forecast point.
- This approach offers a clear, at-a-glance visual of potential future price paths.
How to Use
1. Add to Chart:
- Simply apply the indicator to any chart and timeframe.
- Adjust the Fibonacci periods and styling under the indicator settings.
2. Interpretation:
- Each forecast line shows where price could potentially head if the current momentum (distance from the SMA) continues.
- When multiple lines are consistently above (or below) the current price, it may reinforce a bullish (or bearish) outlook.
3. Customization:
- You can modify the number of forecast lines, their color, and line width in the inputs.
- Change or add your own Fibonacci periods to experiment with different intervals.
Notes and Best Practices
- Confirmation Tool: This indicator is best used alongside other forms of technical or fundamental analysis. It provides a “what-if” scenario based on current momentum, not a guaranteed prediction.
- Not Financial Advice: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management and consider multiple indicators or market factors before making trading decisions.
Give it a try, and see if these Fibonacci-based projections help visualize where price may be headed in your trading strategy!
TR FVG Finder 1.0TR FVG Finder 1.0 - Identify High-Probability Trading Zones
Unlock the power of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) with this advanced TradingView indicator! Designed for traders seeking high-probability setups, the Fair Value Gap Detector identifies key price imbalances on your chart, helping you spot potential reversal and continuation zones with precision.
Key Features:
Accurate FVG Detection: Automatically detects bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps based on a proven 3-candle pattern, highlighting areas where price is likely to return.
Customizable Display: Shows the most recent 3 FVGs by default (combined bullish and bearish), with an option to adjust the number of FVGs displayed.
Visual Clarity: Draws semi-transparent boxes (green for bullish FVGs, red for bearish FVGs) that extend 15 candles to the right, making it easy to track key levels.
Versatile for All Markets: Works on any timeframe and instrument—perfect for forex, stocks, crypto, and commodities like XAU/USD (gold).
User-Friendly: Simple to use with customizable settings, ideal for both beginner and experienced traders.
How It Works:
The indicator identifies FVGs by analyzing a 3-candle pattern:
- Bullish FVG: When the high of the candle two bars back is below the low of the current candle.
- Bearish FVG: When the low of the candle two bars back is above the high of the current candle. These gaps often act as magnets for price, making them powerful zones for trading strategies like breakouts, pullbacks, or reversals.
Why Use This Indicator?
- Enhance your technical analysis with a proven concept used by institutional traders.
- Spot high-probability trading opportunities with clear visual cues.
- Save time by automating FVG detection—no manual drawing required.
Best Practices:
- Use on lower timeframes (e.g., 15-minute or 1-hour) for more frequent FVGs, especially in volatile markets like forex or crypto.
- Combine with other indicators (e.g., support/resistance, volume) for confirmation.
- Ideal for strategies like ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, Smart Money trading, and price action analysis.
Regards,
Trader Riaz
Moon+Lunar Cycle Vertical Delineation & Projection
Automatically highlights the exact candle in which Moonphase shifts occur.
Optionally including shifts within the Microphases of the total Lunar Cycle.
This allow traders to pre-emptively identify time-based points of volatility,
focusing on mean-reversion; further simplified via the use of projections.
Projections are calculated via candle count, values displayed in "Debug";
these are useful in understanding the function & underlying mechanics.
Fibonacci RangeFibonacci Range 50 Indicator
The Fibonacci Range 50 indicator is designed to help traders identify potential price reversal zones and breakout levels by utilizing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as a key reference point. This indicator is particularly useful for traders who rely on technical analysis and price action to make informed trading decisions.
How It Works:
Identifies the Range – The indicator automatically detects a significant price range, typically based on the highest and lowest points of a given session (e.g., Asian session, previous day’s range, or a custom timeframe).
Plots Fibonacci Levels – The key 50% Fibonacci retracement level is calculated within this range, acting as a dynamic midpoint that often serves as a pivot zone for price movements.
Breakout & Reversal Signals –
If the price rejects the 50% level, it may indicate a trend continuation or range-bound movement.
If the price breaks above or below the range with momentum, it may signal a potential breakout trade opportunity.
Key Features:
✅ Automatic Fibonacci Level Calculation – No manual drawing required.
✅ Customizable Time Ranges – Allows traders to adjust the indicator based on their preferred trading session.
✅ Works Across Different Markets – Effective for Forex, Crypto, and Stock trading.
✅ Breakout & Reversal Strategy Integration – Can be used in conjunction with other indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, and MACD.
Ideal For:
Intraday traders looking for high-probability setups.
Swing traders identifying potential turning points.
Traders using breakout strategies based on price action.
This indicator provides traders with clear and actionable insights to improve their trade entries, stop-loss placements, and profit targets. 🚀
Multi-Timeframe Stochastic RSI ArrowsMulti-Timeframe Stochastic RSI Arrows Indicator by The Venetian
Dear Moderators before you torch me alive theres nothing groundbreaking just very handy indicator for some users.
This indicator provides traders with a jet fighter-style heads-up display for market momentum across multiple timeframes. By displaying Stochastic RSI directional arrows for 12 different timeframes simultaneously, it offers a comprehensive view of market conditions without requiring multiple chart windows.
How It Works
The indicator calculates the Stochastic RSI for each of 12 common timeframes (1m to 3M) and represents directional movements with intuitive arrows:
- ▲ Green up arrow = Rising momentum
- ▼ Red down arrow = Falling momentum
- ◄► Yellow horizontal arrows = Flat/sideways momentum
- ► Gray right arrow = Just peaked (crossed above overbought)
- ◄ Gray left arrow = Just bottomed (crossed below oversold)
Each timeframe's status appears with its label (e.g., "1m ▲") in a clean, vertically-stacked display using ATR-based spacing to maintain consistent visual appearance regardless of price scale.
Key Features
- ATR-Based Spacing : Uses Average True Range to maintain consistent distances between labels even as chart scale changes
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Easily spot divergences and confluences across timeframes (1m, 3m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 1D, 1W, 1M, 3M)
- Sensitivity Control: Adjust flat detection sensitivity to filter out noise
- Customisable Appearance: Modify arrow size, vertical spacing, and show/hide timeframe labels
- Overbought/Oversold Detection: Highlights when momentum has peaked or bottomed at extreme levels
- Trading Applications
- Trend Alignment: Quickly identify when multiple timeframes align in the same direction
- Divergence Detection: Spot when shorter timeframes begin to shift against longer ones
- Entry/Exit Timing: Use crossovers of significant timeframes as potential signals
- Market Context: Maintain awareness of the bigger picture while trading shorter timeframes
This indicator doesn't break new ground technically but excels in presenting complex multi-timeframe information in a clean, actionable format — much like a pilot's heads-up display provides critical information at a glance. The ATR-based positioning ensures consistent visibility across different instruments and market conditions.
Great effort has been made for this script to adhere to TradingView's Pine Script house rules and focuses on trader usability rather than introducing novel technical concepts.
Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/Poisson Prediction
---
# **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/ Poisson Prediction**
## **Introduction**
The **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence with Poisson Prediction** is a **statistically-driven trend-following oscillator** that provides traders with **a structured approach to identifying trend strength, persistence, and potential reversals**.
This indicator combines:
- **Hurst Exponent Analysis** (to measure how persistent or mean-reverting price action is).
- **Color-Coded Trend Detection** (to highlight bullish and bearish conditions).
- **Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability Projection** (to anticipate when a trend is likely to end based on statistical models).
By integrating **fractal market theory (Hurst exponent)** with **Poisson probability distributions**, this indicator gives traders a **probability-weighted view of trend duration** while dynamically adapting to market volatility.
---
## **Simplified Explanation (How to Read the Indicator at a Glance)**
1. **If the oscillator line is going up → The trend is strong.**
2. **If the oscillator line is going down → The trend is weakening.**
3. **If the color shifts from red to green (or vice versa), a trend shift has occurred.**
- **Strong trends can change color without weakening** (meaning a bullish or bearish move can remain powerful even as the trend shifts).
4. **A weakening trend does NOT necessarily mean a reversal is coming.**
- The trend may slow down but continue in the same direction.
5. **A strong trend does NOT guarantee it will last.**
- Even a powerful move can **suddenly reverse**, which is why the **Poisson-based background shading** helps anticipate probabilities of change.
---
## **How to Use the Indicator**
### **1. Understanding the Rolling Hurst-Based Trend Oscillator (Main Line)**
The **oscillator line** is based on the **Hurst exponent (H)**, which quantifies whether price movements are:
- **Trending** (values above 0 → momentum-driven, persistent trends).
- **Mean-reverting** (values below 0 → price action is choppy, likely to revert to the mean).
- **Neutral (Random Walk)** (values around 0 → price behaves like a purely stochastic process).
#### **Interpreting the Oscillator:**
- **H > 0.5 → Persistent Trends:**
- Price moves tend to sustain in one direction for longer periods.
- Example: Strong uptrends in bull markets.
- **H < 0.5 → Mean-Reverting Behavior:**
- Price has a tendency to revert back to its mean.
- Example: Sideways markets or fading momentum.
- **H ≈ 0.5 → Random Walk:**
- No clear trend; price is unpredictable.
A **gray dashed horizontal line at 0** serves as a **baseline**, helping traders quickly assess whether the market is **favoring trends or mean reversion**.
---
### **2. Color-Coded Trend Signal (Visual Confirmation of Trend Shifts)**
The oscillator **changes color** based on **price slope** over the lookback period:
- **🟢 Green → Uptrend (Price Increasing)**
- Price is rising relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bullish pressure.
- **🔴 Red → Downtrend (Price Decreasing)**
- Price is falling relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bearish pressure.
#### **How to Use This in Trading**
✔ **Stay in trends until a color change occurs.**
✔ **Use color changes as confirmation for trend reversals.**
✔ **Avoid counter-trend trades when the oscillator remains strongly colored.**
---
### **3. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Projection (Anticipating Future Shifts)**
The **shaded orange background** represents a **Poisson-based probability estimation** of when the trend is likely to reverse.
- **Darker Orange = Higher Probability of Trend Reversal**
- **Lighter Orange / No Shade = Low Probability of Immediate Reversal**
💡 **The idea behind this model:**
✔ Trends **don’t last forever**, and their duration follows **statistical patterns**.
✔ By calculating the **average historical trend duration**, the indicator predicts **how likely a trend shift is at any given time**.
✔ The **Poisson probability function** is applied to determine the **expected likelihood of a reversal as time progresses**.
---
## **Mathematical Foundations of the Indicator**
This indicator is based on **two primary statistical models**:
### **1. Hurst Exponent & Trend Persistence (Fractal Market Theory)**
- The **Hurst exponent (H)** measures **autocorrelation** in price movements.
- If past trends **persist**, H will be **above 0.5** (meaning trend-following strategies are favorable).
- If past trends tend to **mean-revert**, H will be **below 0.5** (meaning reversal strategies are more effective).
- The **Rolling Hurst Oscillator** calculates this exponent over a moving window to track real-time trend conditions.
#### **Formula Breakdown (Simplified for Traders)**
The Hurst exponent (H) is derived using the **Rescaled Range (R/S) Analysis**:
\
Where:
- **R** = **Range** (difference between max cumulative deviation and min cumulative deviation).
- **S** = **Standard deviation** of price fluctuations.
- **Lookback** = The number of periods analyzed.
---
### **2. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability (Stochastic Process Modeling)**
The **Poisson process** is a **probabilistic model used for estimating time-based events**, applied here to **predict trend reversals based on past trend durations**.
#### **How It Works**
- The indicator **tracks trend durations** (the time between color changes).
- A **Poisson rate parameter (λ)** is computed as:
\
- The **probability of a reversal at any given time (t)** is estimated using:
\
- **As t increases (trend continues), the probability of reversal rises**.
- The indicator **shades the background based on this probability**, visually displaying the likelihood of a **trend shift**.
---
## **Dynamic Adaptation to Market Conditions**
✔ **Volatility-Adjusted Trend Shifts:**
- A **custom volatility calculation** dynamically adjusts the **minimum trend duration** required before a trend shift is recognized.
- **Higher volatility → Requires longer confirmation before switching trend color.**
- **Lower volatility → Allows faster trend shifts.**
✔ **Adaptive Poisson Weighting:**
- **Recent trends are weighted more heavily** using an exponential decay function:
- **Decay Factor (0.618 by default)** prioritizes **recent intervals** while still considering historical trends.
- This ensures the model adapts to changing market conditions.
---
## **Key Takeaways for Traders**
✅ **Identify Persistent Trends vs. Mean Reversion:**
- Use the oscillator line to determine whether the market favors **trend-following or counter-trend strategies**.
✅ **Visual Trend Confirmation via Color Coding:**
- **Green = Uptrend**, **Red = Downtrend**.
- Trend changes help confirm **entry and exit points**.
✅ **Anticipate Trend Reversals Using Probability Models:**
- The **Poisson projection** provides a **statistical edge** in **timing exits before trends reverse**.
✅ **Adapt to Market Volatility Automatically:**
- Dynamic **volatility scaling** ensures the indicator remains effective in **both high and low volatility environments**.
Happy trading and enjoy!
day of Month | xilixMonthly Marker (1D Only)
The Monthly Marker indicator automatically highlights a specific day of the month on a daily (1D) chart by drawing a vertical line. Users can select their desired day of the month and customize the line color.
Features:
✅ Marks the chosen day of each month with a vertical line.
✅ Customizable line color (set in the indicator settings).
✅ Helps traders quickly identify key monthly dates.
Note: This indicator will not work on lower timeframes (e.g., 4H, 1H) and will show an error if applied outside the 1D timeframe.
Best Use Cases: Monthly trend tracking, economic event alignment, and custom date-based analysis. 🚀
Live SessionsLive sessions plots the highs and lows of the previous for sessions.
It also marks when these are broken by price.
Default Time Frames are:
London Session = "0000-0600", "UTC-4"
New York Session = "0830-1230", "UTC-4"
Asia Session = "1800-0000", "UTC-4"
New York Close Session = "1330-1630", "UTC-4"
Useful for highlighting when price has gone through a previous session high or low and quickly seeing where liquidity still lies.
EMADC - BoB📌 EMADC - BoB Indicator Description
🔹 Introduction
The EMADC - BoB (Exponential Moving Average & Donchian Channel - Buy or Bear) is an advanced technical indicator designed to help traders identify optimal buy and sell zones in the market. It combines the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the median of the Donchian Channel, two powerful indicators widely used by professional traders.
The main goal of EMADC - BoB is to provide a clear trend reading by coloring the area between the EMA and the Donchian median. This allows traders to easily visualize buying and selling opportunities based on market dynamics.
⸻
🔹 How the Indicator Works
📌 Components of the Indicator:
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): A reactive moving average that helps track short to medium-term trends.
• Median of the Donchian Channel (Donchian Median): Calculated as the average of the highest and lowest prices over the last X periods. It represents an equilibrium zone between supply and demand.
• Dynamic Colored Zone:
• 🟢 Green → Indicates a bullish phase → Look for buying opportunities.
• 🔴 Red → Indicates a bearish phase → Look for selling opportunities.
When the EMA is above the Donchian median, the market is in a bullish momentum, and it is preferable to focus on long positions (buys).
Conversely, when the EMA falls below the Donchian median, the market is under bearish pressure, and traders should look for short positions (sells).
⸻
🔹 Usage and Customization
The EMADC - BoB indicator is fully customizable to adapt to different trading strategies.
📌 Available Settings:
✅ EMA and Donchian Channel Periods → Adjustable to match your trading horizon (scalping, swing trading, long-term investing).
✅ EMA, Donchian, and Fill Area Colors → For improved readability based on your chart style.
✅ Line Thickness and Fill Transparency → To optimize visibility on your chart.
⸻
🔹 Trading Strategy
🔹 Buy Signal (Long): When the area turns green (EMA crosses above the Donchian median).
🔹 Sell Signal (Short): When the area turns red (EMA crosses below the Donchian median).
This indicator can be used on its own or combined with other technical tools such as RSI, MACD, Price Action for a more comprehensive decision-making process.
⸻
🔹 Why Use EMADC - BoB?
✅ Quick trend identification without cluttering the chart.
✅ Dynamic approach that adapts to market fluctuations.
✅ Easy interpretation for both beginner and advanced traders.
✅ Multi-timeframe usability (scalping, swing trading, long-term).
⸻
🚀 Add EMADC - BoB to your trading toolkit and make more informed decisions!
If you have any questions or suggestions for improvements, feel free to leave a comment. Happy trading! 📈🔥
Scalping Entry/Exit Indicator by DiGetImagine having a tool that not only spots high-probability entry signals but also visually marks them on your chart with color-coded cues and automated alerts. The Scalping Entry/Exit Indicator by DiGet does exactly that—by fusing a range of classic candlestick patterns (such as Bullish Hammers, Engulfing patterns, and Morning/Evening Stars) with dynamic risk management levels, this script empowers you to make swift and informed trading decisions. Whether you're an active trader or an algorithm enthusiast, this indicator offers both precision and clarity in identifying scalp opportunities, making your chart analysis more efficient and visually engaging.
Indicator Breakdown
Input Parameters:
The indicator accepts a customizable risk-reward ratio, an ATR period for volatility measurement, and a lookback period to scan for valid candlestick patterns.
ATR & Candle Calculations:
It computes the Average True Range (ATR) to dynamically set stop-loss and take-profit levels. Additionally, it determines the body and wick sizes of each candlestick to help identify key reversal patterns.
Pattern Detection:
Multiple bullish patterns (Hammer, Engulfing, Morning Star) and bearish patterns (Shooting Star, Engulfing, Evening Star) are detected. There’s also a simplified version of the Head & Shoulders pattern, offering further validation for reversal signals.
Signal Generation & Trade Levels:
The script consolidates the pattern signals into combined “buy” and “sell” triggers. It then calculates the respective stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels based on the current price and ATR, providing a robust risk management framework.
Visual Aids & Alerts:
To enhance usability, the indicator changes the chart’s background color to green for buy signals and red for sell signals. It also draws labels, lines (representing SL and TP), and markers directly on the chart, along with alert conditions to notify traders of actionable signals.
This indicator is an excellent addition to your TradingView toolkit—ideal for scalpers and short-term traders seeking clarity, precision, and automated signal generation on their charts.
Enjoy trading with confidence and precision!
ALMA 20, 50, 200The ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) crossover strategy uses two ALMA lines (fast and slow) to generate buy/sell signals, aiming to reduce lag and noise compared to traditional moving averages, and is often combined with volume filters for improved accuracy.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
What it is:
The ALMA indicator is a moving average (MA) variant designed to reduce lag and improve responsiveness while maintaining a smooth curve, using a Gaussian filter.
How it works:
ALMA calculates two moving averages, one from left to right and one from right to left, and then processes the output through a customizable formula for increased smoothness or responsiveness.
Crossover Strategy:
A common ALMA strategy involves using two ALMA lines with different lengths (fast and slow). A buy signal is generated when the fast ALMA crosses above the slow ALMA, and a sell signal when the fast ALMA crosses below the slow ALMA.
Benefits:
ALMA offers advantages like reduced lag, smoothness, and filtering capabilities, making it useful for identifying trends and potential reversals.
Potential Risks:
Like any indicator, ALMA can produce false signals, so it's crucial to combine it with other indicators and analyze price action.
Parameters:
ALMA has parameters like "Length" (number of periods), "Sigma" (filter's range, affecting responsiveness), and "Offset" (for accessing data of different candles).
Other uses:
ALMA can also be used for trend identification, dynamic support and resistance, and combined with other indicators to enhance trading strategies.
Zones Family TraderDescription in English:
This indicator is designed to automatically detect and draw support and resistance zones on your chart. It identifies key market levels based on the All-Time High (ATH) of the last 200 candles in the M15 timeframe, generating precise zones to improve your decision-making.
🔹 Features:
✅ Automatic ATH detection over the last 200 candles
✅ Semi-transparent zones for better visualization
✅ 3-hour forward projection of zones to anticipate price movements
✅ Predefined horizontal lines (12.5 and 50 points apart) for structured analysis
✅ Fixed levels once drawn to maintain chart clarity
🚀 Why use this indicator?
Removes subjectivity by displaying clear price reaction zones
Helps traders quickly identify market structure
Ideal for intraday traders and scalpers looking for precise entries
Price Levels by Market Cap (Manual)This indicator will forecast the price by marketcap. The crypto's current circulating supply should be inputted manually.
Reversal Precision Index Overview
The Reversal Precision Index (RPI) is designed to assist traders in identifying potential reversal zones and tracking market trends. This overlay indicator combines a set of dynamic price channels with a customizable trend-following band, offering a robust framework for spotting key turning points and monitoring price action. Ideal for traders seeking to enhance their decision-making process, RPI is versatile across various timeframes and asset types.
Key Features
Dynamic Price Channels: Visualizes multiple support and resistance levels based on a weighted average of price data, helping you identify areas where price reversals are likely to occur.
Trend-Following Band: Includes an adjustable band that follows price trends, providing insights into the overall market direction and potential breakout zones.
Customizable Alerts: Notifies you when price crosses key levels, allowing you to react promptly to significant market movements.
Price Labels: Displays current levels of the price channels on the chart, aiding in quick reference and analysis (optional).
Interpreting the Indicator
Reversal Zones: Look for price reactions near the channel levels, which often act as high-probability reversal points. These zones can signal potential entry or exit opportunities.
Trend Direction: The trend band provides a smoothed view of market direction. Use its position relative to price to gauge bullish or bearish momentum.
FOMC Meeting DatesFOMC Meeting Dates Indicator
This indicator visualizes Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates on your TradingView charts, allowing you to track market performance between monetary policy decisions. By clearly marking past and future FOMC meetings with vertical lines, this tool helps you analyze how the market reacts to Fed policy changes and identify potential trading patterns.
Key Features:
Visual Timeline: Displays all FOMC meetings from 2021 onward as vertical lines on your chart (black for past meetings, blue for future meetings)
Period Performance: Color-codes periods between FOMC meetings based on price returns (green for positive, red for negative)
Comprehensive Returns Table: Shows performance statistics for each FOMC-to-FOMC period, including the current period and historical average
Future Meeting Forecasting: Displays projected future FOMC meetings through 2027, helping with long-term planning
Customizable Appearance: Adjust colors, line width, shading transparency, and more to suit your chart setup
Market Type Setting: Special optimization for stock market trading hours vs. 24/7 markets like crypto
How to Use:
Track FOMC Impact: See at a glance how markets have historically performed between Fed meetings
Identify Patterns: Analyze if certain FOMC periods consistently show similar market behavior
Plan Around Meetings: Prepare trading strategies with awareness of upcoming Fed meetings
Compare Returns: Use the table to quantify and compare returns between different policy periods
Customization Options:
Appearance: Adjust line colors, width, and extension
Date Labels: Toggle date labels on/off for cleaner charts
Table Settings: Modify position, color, transparency, and number of rows
Shading Options: Change colors or disable period shading
Start Year: Select which year to begin showing FOMC meetings from
This indicator helps traders and investors understand market behavior around monetary policy decisions and can be a valuable addition to your technical analysis toolkit.
