Reflation Proxy: (QQQ/GSG) vs QQQ (Base-100)This indicator builds a single “reflation impulse” line by standardizing the QQQ/GSG ratio (growth equities vs commodities) and comparing it to QQQ over the same Base-100 lookback window. The result highlights when commodities are catching up to or outperforming growth (reflation/broadening impulse) versus when growth is dominating real assets (disinflation/duration regime). The main line is smoothed with a user-defined EMA and includes three configurable control EMAs (21/50/100 by default). Rising readings generally reflect growth leadership; a rollover into a sustained decline tends to mark reflation pressure building under the surface.
Dönemler
Sigmoid Allocation Indicator & DashboardTL;DR This sigmoid-based allocation indicator tells you percentage of your portfolio to invest based on how much the market has dropped.
Market at all-time high? → Stay defensive, invest less (e.g., 30%)
Market crashed hard? → Get aggressive, invest more (e.g., 100%)
The "sigmoid" part just means the transition between these two extremes follows a smooth S-shaped curve.
Description
This indicator is a sigmoid-based allocation system that dynamically adjusts a portfolio exposure based on market drawdown.
It compares multiple steepness curves (K values) to find your optimal risk profile for leveraged ETF strategies, but it can also be used to scale in-out from stocks, crypto and to understand whether to use leverage or not.
The Sigmoid Allocation Dashboard helps you to dynamically adjust a portfolio allocation based on how much a market has dropped from its all-time high.
I've implemented it using a sigmoid (S-curve) function, that dynamically calculates the optimal allocation percentages. Depending on the market conditions, the S curves transition between defensive and aggressive allocations.
The Math Behind It (if you are a geek like me)
This indicator uses the sigmoid function to create smooth S-curve transitions:
α(D) = α_min + (α_max - α_min) × σ(k × (D - D_mid))
Where:
σ(x) = 1 / (1 + e^(-x)) ← Standard sigmoid function
You can also check it here:
// Sigmoid function: σ(x) = 1 / (1 + e^(-x))
sigmoid(float x) =>
1.0 / (1.0 + math.exp(-x))
// Alpha calculation: α(D) = α_min + (α_max - α_min) × σ(k × (D - D_mid))
calcAlpha(float drawdown, float k, float a_min, float a_max, float d_midpoint) =>
sig_input = k * (drawdown - d_midpoint) / 100.0
a_min + (a_max - a_min) * sigmoid(sig_input)
User parameters (you can tweak this):
Allocation Min (%): Your baseline allocation when markets are at ATH (default: 30%)
Allocation Max (%): Your maximum allocation during deep drawdowns (default: 100%)
D_mid (%): The drawdown level where you want to be at the midpoint (default: 25%)
Why do I like sigmoid and not a linear line?
Unlike linear models, the sigmoid creates "floors" and "ceilings" for your allocation. It transitions smoothly, no sudden jumps, and you never exceed your defined min/max bounds.
Understand the K Values (Steepness)
The K parameter controls how quickly your allocation shifts from defensive to aggressive.
Lower K (for example K=5) will give you a gradual transition, but at 0% drawdown you are already at a 46% allocation.
A higher like (like K=40) will give you a sharp transition, but at 0% drawdown you are close to the minimum allocation. On the other hand, a higher K will give close to 100% allocation when the markets are at new lows.
The example below illustrates this well, then the S&P 500 reached new lows in October 2022:
Different K values will affect the sigmoid curves (and you allocations differently). The chart below illustrates well how K affects the sigmoid curves:
Read the Dashboard
The main dashboard shows:
Current drawdown from ATH
Allocation % for each K value
Suggested action (Defensive → MAX LONG)
Use the Reference Chart
The static reference panel shows what your allocation would be at various drawdown levels (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%), helping you plan ahead.
Identify Zones
The color-coded chart background shows:
- 🟢 Green Zone: Aggressive positioning - "Buy the Dip"
- 🟡 Yellow Zone: Transition zone - Scaling in/out
- 🔴 Red Zone: Defensive positioning - Protect ya gains
Use Cases
Use case 1: Leveraged ETF Portfolio Management (this is my main use case)
When holding leveraged ETFs like TQQQ or UPRO, volatility makes it important to:
- Reduce exposure near all-time highs (when crashes hurt most)
- Increase exposure during drawdowns (when recovery potential is highest)
Example Strategy:
- At ATH: Hold 30% TQQQ, 70% cash/bonds or other uncorrelated assets
- At 25% drawdown: Hold 65% TQQQ, 35% cash/bonds
- At 40%+ drawdown: Hold 100% TQQQ
Use case 2: Diversified Leveraged Portfolio
Compare different K values for different assets:
- Use K = 10 for broad market (QQQ/SPY exposure via TQQQ/UPRO)
- Use K = 25 for sector bets (TECL, SOXL, TMF) that you want to scale into faster
Use case 3: Systematic Rebalancing Signals
Use the alerts to trigger rebalancing:
- Alert when K3 allocation crosses above 90% (time to add)
- Alert when drawdown exceeds your D_mid threshold
- Alert when market returns to within 5% of ATH
Tips for Best Results
It works best in longer time frames
Adjust the ATR lookback window
Match your risk tolerance level
I use this for index investing and stocks and haven't tried with crypto
Thanks for using the indicator and let me know if you have any feedback :)
- Henrique Centieiro
EstongA* Bot Alerts ProV1*Here’s a consolidated list of warnings and advice for traders, whether you're just starting or are experienced:
⚠️ Critical Warnings
1. You can lose all your capital – Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme. Never trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
2. Avoid leverage until you fully understand it – Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Many traders get wiped out by over-leveraging.
3. Beware of "guaranteed profit" systems – If it sounds too good to be true, it is. No strategy works all the time.
4. Emotional trading is a career killer – Fear, greed, and revenge trading destroy accounts.
5. Don’t follow tips or "hot leads" blindly – Do your own analysis. Many influencers are secretly unloading positions onto followers.
📚 Essential Advice
Mindset & Psychology
• Treat trading like a business, not gambling. Have a plan for every trade.
• Develop patience – Wait for high-probability setups; don’t force trades.
• Accept losses as part of the game – Even the best traders have losing streaks. The key is risk management.
• Keep a trading journal – Record every trade: entry/exit reasoning, emotional state, outcome. Review weekly.
Risk Management (Non-Negotiable)
• Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade – This protects you from ruin during a losing streak.
• Always use stop-losses – Decide your stop-loss BEFORE entering a trade.
• Never add to a losing position ("averaging down") – This is how small losses become catastrophes.
• Have a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:2 – Aim for potential profit to be at least double your potential loss.
Strategy & Education
• Master one market/strategy at a time – Don’t jump between forex, stocks, crypto, and options simultaneously.
• Backtest and forward-test any strategy before using real money.
• Understand market context – Are you in a trending or ranging market? Adjust your strategy accordingly.
• Continuously educate yourself – Markets evolve. Stay updated, but avoid constantly switching strategies.
Practical Habits
• Start with a demo account – Prove you can be consistently profitable before using real money.
• When moving to real money, start small – The psychology changes with real money on the line.
• Set trading hours and stick to them – Avoid overtrading and burnout.
• Regularly withdraw profits – Secure gains and reinforce the reality of your earnings.
🚨 Red Flags in Yourself
• Chasing losses – Trying to immediately recoup a loss leads to bigger losses.
• Overconfidence after wins – Leads to taking oversized, reckless trades.
• Ignoring your trading plan – If you’re making exceptions, you don’t have a plan.
• Blaming the market or others – You are responsible for every trade. Take ownership.
🔍 Choosing a Broker/Platform
• Regulation is crucial – Ensure they are licensed by a reputable authority (FCA, SEC, ASIC, etc.).
• Understand all fees – Spreads, commissions, overnight financing, withdrawal fees.
• Test customer support – You need them in a crisis.
• Start with a well-known, established broker – Avoid obscure platforms with offers that seem too good.
💡 Final Wisdom
• Preservation of capital is more important than making profits. Survive to trade another day.
• The market will always be there – Missing an opportunity is better than taking a bad trade.
• Trading is a marathon of consistency, not a sprint for mega-returns.
• If you're consistently losing, stop, step back, and re-evaluate. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.
Remember, approximately 90% of retail traders lose money. To be in the successful 10%, you need discipline, continuous learning, and emotional control more than a "perfect" strategy. Good luck.
world market Zones (IST) + Prev Day S/R + Pivot🧠 PART 1 — SESSION VOLATILITY ENGINE (SCRIPT 1)
This part does time-based market behavior mapping, not price indicators.
✅ What it Detects
All times are locked to IST (Asia/Kolkata):
Zone Purpose Why it matters
London (13:00–17:30) EU money flow Trend initiations often start here
NY (18:30–23:30) US volatility Expansion + reversals
Overlap (17:30–21:30) Highest liquidity window Breakouts + fakeouts
EIA (Wed 20:30–21:30) Crude inventory release Explosive oil moves
IMPORTANT FOR ANALYSING session START SHOCK POINTS.
🧠 What this section REALLY gives you
You now see:
When liquidity enters
When algos reset
When news shock candles form
Where false breakouts happen (often at session flips)
This is behavioral timing, not lagging math.
Not suitable for:
1D+ charts (session logic loses meaning)
Assets without clear London/NY behavior
🏆 What type of trader this script is for
This is NOT indicator trading.
This is for traders who:
✔ Trade liquidity sweeps
✔ Watch session opens
✔ Understand dealer positioning
✔ Trade crude, indices, forex
It’s basically a smart money timing + institutional level combo.
HAPPY TRADING
Clean EMA VWAP Trend Pullback - SrPyeA clean, confirmation-based trend pullback indicator using EMA and VWAP alignment.
Designed to reduce noise and highlight high-probability continuation setups.
Best used on 1–2 minute charts during high-liquidity sessions.
This indicator is designed as a confirmation tool, not a standalone trading system.
Good For NY Session 9:30am - 11:00am - After Lunch 1:00pm- 3:00pm
OR Optional Alerts
- Sr.Pye
polymarket 15 min markerHere is a professional and catchy description you can use when publishing this script on TradingView. It highlights the "pro" features we added (MTF capability, custom fonts, and bug fixes).
Title: Current 15m Open – Pro Anchored Level
Description:
What it does: This indicator is a precision tool for intraday traders. It automatically identifies and draws a horizontal line at the opening price of the current 15-minute candle. This level serves as a key pivot for intraday bias—price above is often bullish, price below is often bearish.
Unlike standard indicators, this script is engineered to be Multi-Timeframe (MTF) stable. This means you can view the 15m Open level while scalping on a 1-minute, 5-minute, or even 1-second chart, and the line will remain locked to the correct price without repainting or jumping.
Key Features:
🎯 Precision Anchor: Uses time-based coordinates to ensure the line starts exactly at the 15m candle open, regardless of your current timeframe.
⚡ Zero-Lag MTF: Instantly updates the moment a new 15-minute session begins.
💎 Luxury Visuals: Features a "Fancy Font" hack that uses special Unicode characters to display the label in a bold, professional serif style (customizable in settings).
📐 Smart Positioning: The label floats clearly on the right side of the chart (margin area), ensuring it never obstructs your view of the candles.
🛠 Stability Fixes: Includes custom logic to prevent the "disappearing line" bug that often occurs when viewing the same timeframe as the indicator source.
Settings:
Theme Color: Customize the line and text color to match your chart theme.
Font Style: Choose between "Luxury" (Serif), "Hacker" (Monospace), or "Modern" (Standard).
Text Offset: Adjust how far to the right the label sits.
How to use:
Add to your chart.
Use it as a bias filter: Look for longs above the blue line and shorts below it.
Perfect for scalpers who need to keep the higher-timeframe context visible at all times.
Dual MA Trendline with Angle Lock"Dual MA Trendline with Angle Lock + Multiplier Bands" is a trend-following overlay indicator that combines two moving averages (MAs), each with a special "angle lock" mechanism.
Key mechanics: Instead of plotting the raw MA directly as the main trend line, it creates a piecewise-linear trendline for each MA.
The trendline locks its slope (angle) and starting value whenever the MA's recent slope changes significantly (more than the user-defined angleThreshold).
Between these "slope reset" points, the trendline continues with constant slope (straight line segments), producing flatter, more persistent trend representations than a curving MA.
Around the locked trendline, it draws symmetric bands:Base band (1×) — always shown
Optional multiplier bands (2×, 4×, 8×) — configurable
Bands can be in percentage (volatility-adaptive) or fixed points (useful for forex/crypto with small price units or tick-based instruments).
It also plots fills between the two MAs' bands/trendlines → visually highlights:Upper zone (greenish fill)
Middle zone (blueish fill)
Lower zone (reddish fill)
In short: two independent "locked-angle trend ribbons" with multiplier deviation bands + inter-ribbon fills.
Main Use Cases
Trend direction & strength visualization
The locked-slope trendlines stay straighter and change direction less frequently than normal MAs → clearer visual read of the prevailing trend (especially useful on noisy charts).
Dynamic support/resistance zones
1× bands act as near-term dynamic S/R.
2× / 4× / 8× bands serve as progressively stronger support/resistance or "overextended" levels.
→ Many traders watch for price rejection, bounces, or acceleration once price reaches 2×–4× bands.
Mean-reversion / pullback entries (especially in ranging or mildly trending markets)
Price touching or exceeding outer multiplier bands + returning toward the trendline often signals good mean-reversion setups.
Trend-continuation / breakout filtering Price riding above the upper bands in uptrend → strong momentum continuation. Price breaking and closing outside 4×–8× bands → potential acceleration or trend exhaustion signal.
Dual-timeframe / dual-speed MA comparison MA 1 is usually longer/slower (default 128), MA 2 is shorter/faster (default 14).
The fills between them act like a "trend tunnel" — wide middle fill = strong trend, narrowing = consolidation, color changes = possible reversal.
Clean chart alternative to channels / regression / envelopes
The angle-locking creates straighter, less whipsaw-prone lines than typical Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, or regression channels, while still adapting to price.
Typical settings example MA1: longer period (50–200), small angle threshold → persistent major trend
MA2: shorter period (9–34), larger angle threshold → more responsive minor trend
Use percentage bands on stocks/indices, fixed points on forex/crypto with small pip values.
Overall → very popular style among traders who like clean, low-repaint trend + deviation band systems (similar spirit to SuperTrend + envelopes, but with custom slope-locking logic).
EMA Crossover Candle Color - 9/21A simple visual trend highlighter for intraday/day trading. This overlay indicator plots a fast 9-period EMA (orange) and a slower 21-period EMA (blue). Candles turn green on the exact bar where the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA (bullish momentum shift), and red when the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA (bearish shift). Otherwise, candles remain default. Great for spotting quick trend changes, momentum entries, or filtering chop on 5-min charts (or any timeframe). Pairs well with VWAP, volume, or price action for confluence.
Gap Boxes extended_customizableSimple indicator denoting gaps on the chart, along with option to have labels according to the percentage of the gap up or gap down. Enjoy
Candle Close CounterThis indicator counts how many candles have closed above, below, or exactly at a user-defined price level
starting from a specified time. It provides real-time statistics to help traders analyze price behavior
around key levels.
HOW IT WORKS:
The indicator begins counting at your chosen start time and tracks each candle's closing price relative
to your specified price level. It maintains running totals of candles that close above, below, and at
the price level, displaying this information both in a chart label and a statistics table.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS:
1. CONSOLIDATION ANALYSIS:
Use this tool to identify and measure consolidation patterns by placing the price level at the midpoint
of a trading range. A balanced count of candles closing above and below the midpoint suggests genuine
consolidation with no directional bias.
2. RANGE MIDPOINT MONITORING:
During consolidation phases, set the price level to the 50% retracement of the range midpoint between
the high and low. Monitor how price interacts with this level over time.
3. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE VALIDATION:
Place the price level at a key support or resistance zone and start counting from a significant market
event (news release, session open, etc.). The distribution of closes helps validate whether the level
is holding or weakening.
4. SESSION ANALYSIS:
Set the start time to the beginning of a trading session (e.g., 9:30 AM ET for regular hours) and place
the level at the opening price or previous day's close.
N Option Selling 2
---
## 📌 Script Description
**NIFTY Weekly Option Seller – Regime-Based Risk-Controlled System**
This indicator is designed for **systematic weekly option selling on NIFTY**, using a **rule-based regime and scoring framework** to decide **what to sell, how aggressively to sell, and when to defend or harvest**.
The script does **not generate buy/sell signals**.
Instead, it acts as a **decision and risk-management engine** for option sellers.
---
## 🔹 Core Idea
The market is always in one of three regimes:
1. **Iron Condor (IC)** → Range / mean-reverting market
2. **Put Credit Spread (PCS)** → Bullish trending market
3. **Call Credit Spread (CCS)** → Bearish trending market
This script **scores all three regimes (0–5)** on the current chart timeframe and automatically selects the **dominant regime**.
---
## 🔹 How Scoring Works (High Level)
Each regime score is built using **price structure + volatility + momentum context**:
### PCS (Bullish bias)
* EMA alignment (8 > 13 > 34)
* ADX trend strength
* Price above VWAP
* CPR breakout
* RSI sanity checks (size is reduced in extremes)
* Daily trend confirmation
### CCS (Bearish bias)
* EMA alignment (8 < 13 < 34)
* ADX trend strength
* Price below VWAP
* CPR breakdown
* RSI sanity checks (size is reduced in extremes)
* Daily trend confirmation
### IC (Range bias)
* Low ADX (both intraday & daily)
* Price inside CPR
* Price near VWAP
* Price inside Camarilla H3–L3
* RSI near equilibrium (45–55)
A **cross-penalty system** ensures that strong trends suppress IC scores and vice-versa, preventing conflicting signals.
Scores are **smoothed** to reduce noise and avoid over-trading.
---
## 🔹 Regime Selection Logic
* The regime with the **highest score** is selected.
* If scores tie:
* **Trending markets → PCS / CCS**
* **Non-trending markets → IC**
This ensures **trend takes priority over range** when volatility expands.
---
## 🔹 Strike Selection (ATR-Based)
The script suggests **volatility-adjusted strike distances** using ATR:
* **Iron Condor:** ±1.0 × ATR
* **PCS / CCS:** ±1.25 × ATR
This adapts automatically to changing volatility instead of using fixed point distances.
---
## 🔹 Risk-First Trade Management
The script provides **three actionable alerts only**:
### 🔴 DEFEND
Triggered when:
* Price approaches short strike
* Trend breaks beyond Camarilla levels
* Volatility expansion threatens the position
→ Signals the need to **roll, widen, or convert**
### 🟢 HARVEST
Triggered when:
* Adequate price cushion exists
* Market remains range-bound or stable
→ Signals opportunity to **book profits or roll closer**
### 🔵 REGIME CHANGE
Triggered when:
* Market structure flips decisively
→ Signals need to **switch strategy bias**
A **cooldown system** prevents alert spam.
---
## 🔹 Position Sizing Philosophy
* Scores determine **directional conviction**
* RSI-based **size multiplier** automatically reduces exposure in extreme momentum conditions
* Optional **minimum lot floor** ensures participation without over-risking
* Designed to support **Risk:Reward frameworks (1:2 or 1:3)** through premium-based stop discipline
---
## 🔹 Visual & UX Features
* Background color reflects active regime and conviction
* On-chart panel displays:
* Active strategy
* Scores (IC / PCS / CCS)
* ADX & RSI
* VWAP, CPR, Camarilla levels
* Clean, non-repainting levels (previous day data)
---
## 🔹 Intended Use
* Weekly option selling (IC / PCS / CCS)
* Works best on **30m–1h charts**
* Designed for **rule-based traders**, not discretionary scalpers
* Focused on **capital preservation, consistency, and disciplined adjustments**
---
## ⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is **not financial advice**.
It is a **decision-support and risk-management tool** for experienced option sellers who already understand spreads, adjustments, and margin dynamics.
Auto Supply and Demand and ICT ExecutionsAuto Supply and Demand and ICT Executions is a professional-grade technical analysis suite designed to automate the visualization of institutional market structure and "Smart Money" execution signals. By combining automated Supply/Demand zoning with key ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, this indicator provides a complete roadmap for identifying high-probability reversal and continuation setups on any timeframe.
Core Features:
Auto Supply & Demand Zones:
Automatically identifies and plots active Supply (Red) and Demand (Green) zones based on significant market structure pivots.
Persistent Logic: Zones remain active on the chart until price "mitigates" (closes beyond) them, ensuring you never miss a retest of a key level.
ATR Clutter Filter: Uses an Average True Range (ATR) algorithm to prevent zones from overlapping, keeping your chart clean and readable.
ICT Execution Signals (MSS):
Market Structure Shifts (MSS): Automatically detects valid shifts in market structure when price breaks a key structural high or low following a liquidity sweep.
Instant Signal Labels: clearly labels breakout points with "MSS ↑" (Bullish) or "MSS ↓" (Bearish) tags.
Auto Risk/Reward Projections:
Upon detecting an MSS signal, the indicator instantly projects a Risk/Reward (R:R) Box (default 1:2) anchored to the breakout candle.
This provides immediate, visual Take Profit (Green) and Stop Loss (Red) targets, allowing for instant trade assessment without manual measuring.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Confluence:
Projects Higher Timeframe (HTF) Zones (default: 15-minute) directly onto your current chart.
This allows you to align your lower-timeframe entries (e.g., 1-minute) with the dominant institutional trend without switching screens.
Institutional Concepts:
Liquidity Sweeps: Highlights "Stop Hunt" pivots where price briefly breaches a recent swing high/low to trap traders before reversing.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Visualizes historical price imbalances (gaps) where aggressive institutional buying or selling occurred.
Silver Bullet Session: Automatically highlights the high-probability 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM NY trading window.
How to Trade with This Indicator:
Identify Structure: Wait for price to approach a Supply or Demand Zone (especially if it overlaps with an MTF Zone).
Confirm the Sweep: Look for the "Sweep" label, indicating liquidity has been grabbed.
Execute on Signal: Enter the trade when the "MSS" label appears, confirming the reversal.
Manage the Trade: Use the automated R:R Box to set your Stop Loss and Take Profit levels.
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ADR from 50 SMA - Histogram & LabelMore inside the script
INDICATOR PURPOSE:
This indicator measures how far price has moved from the 50-period SMA
in terms of Average Daily Range (ADR). It helps identify:
- When stocks are overextended and may be due for pullback/consolidation
- Potential entry/exit points based on momentum extremes
- Position trimming opportunities when price is stretched
INTERPRETATION:
- Positive values = Price is ABOVE the 50 SMA
- Negative values = Price is BELOW the 50 SMA
- Higher absolute values = More extreme/stretched moves
- Values >2 or <-2 typically indicate overextended conditions
Macro Risk SentimentOverview
This indicator provides a simple traffic light for your trading: green means go, red means slow down.
The background color appears directly on your price chart and in the oscillator pane below. When green, macro conditions favor risk assets and you can trade with full conviction. When red, the indicator suggests reducing position sizes, tightening stops, or stepping aside entirely.
The oscillator pane shows the underlying calculation so you can see how close the market is to flipping regimes.
The Core Idea
Markets move in risk cycles. When institutional money is confident, it flows into equities, high-yield bonds, and away from safe havens. When fear takes over, money rotates into treasuries, the dollar strengthens, and volatility spikes.
This indicator reads those flows by monitoring four markets simultaneously:
Risk-On Signals (good for stocks when rising)
TLT - Long-term Treasury bonds
JNK - High-yield corporate credit
Risk-Off Signals (bad for stocks when rising)
DXY - US Dollar strength
VIX - Market volatility
When bonds and credit are strong relative to their recent history while the dollar and volatility are weak, the background turns green. You have a tailwind. When the opposite occurs, the background turns red. You are fighting the current.
How It Works
Step 1: Z-Score Normalization
Each input is converted to a z-score: how many standard deviations the current value is from its 252-day rolling average. This puts all four inputs on a comparable scale regardless of their absolute price levels.
Step 2: Composite Calculation
Macro Score = (TLT z-score + JNK z-score) minus (DXY z-score + VIX z-score)
Risk-on inputs contribute positively when elevated. Risk-off inputs subtract when elevated. The result is clamped between -1.5 and +1.5 and smoothed with EMAs.
Step 3: State Machine
The indicator uses crossover-based transitions with memory:
RISK ON triggers when the smoothed macro line crosses above its signal line.
RISK OFF triggers when the macro line crosses below its signal line, or when price breaks below its EMA while the macro value is negative (double confirmation exit).
How to Use It
Green Background - Full Steam Ahead
Macro conditions support risk-taking. This is when trend-following strategies tend to work best. Use normal position sizes, take breakout trades, and hold winners longer.
Red Background - Reduce Risk
The macro wind is against you. Consider smaller positions, quicker profit-taking, or sitting out entirely. Mean-reversion setups may work better than trend-following during these periods. Many major drawdowns occur during red regimes.
The Oscillator Pane
The colored line is the macro reading, the white line is its signal. When the colored line crosses above the signal, conditions turn bullish. When it crosses below, conditions turn bearish. The zero line represents neutral. Positive values mean macro conditions are better than the one-year average.
What Makes This Original
This implementation combines z-score normalization across multiple asset classes with a state machine approach that reduces whipsaws. The price filter acts as a circuit breaker but only triggers exits when macro conditions are also deteriorating, preventing premature exits during temporary price weakness.
Settings Guide
Main Settings
Z-Score Lookback (default 252) - Period for calculating mean and standard deviation. 252 bars equals one trading year on daily charts.
Macro EMA (default 7) - Smoothing applied to the raw composite score.
Signal EMA (default 8) - Secondary smoothing for the crossover signal line.
Price Filter
Enable Price Filter (default On) - When enabled, price breaking below the EMA triggers an exit only if the macro value is also negative.
EMA Length (default 20) - The EMA period for the price filter.
Data Sources
Each source (TLT, JNK, DXY, VIX) can be enabled or disabled and weighted from 0 to 3. Default is equal weighting (1.0) for all sources.
Limitations
This is a daily-timeframe indicator. On intraday charts, signals reflect yesterday's macro reading until the day closes.
The z-score lookback creates recency bias. What was normal over the past year may not reflect longer-term historical norms.
Intermarket correlations can change. What worked in recent decades may shift in different monetary regimes.
Not all equity drawdowns come with macro warning. Flash crashes and idiosyncratic events can occur without macro deterioration.
The indicator identifies conditions, not predictions. Green does not guarantee gains. Red does not guarantee losses.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
Green background does not mean buy. Red background does not mean sell. These are environmental readings to help you calibrate your risk-taking, not trade signals.
Past intermarket relationships do not guarantee future behavior. Always conduct your own research. Consider your personal risk tolerance. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Crypto MACD SignalsUnlocking Enhanced Market Insights: A Next-Generation MACD Indicator for Cryptocurrency Trading
Introduction: Beyond Traditional MACD
In the vast landscape of technical analysis tools, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands as one of the most ubiquitous and trusted momentum indicators. However, its classic formulation often leaves traders sifting through frequent crossovers, struggling to distinguish high-probability signals from market noise, especially in the volatile cryptocurrency markets. This script represents a significant evolution of the classic MACD, transforming it from a standalone oscillator into a comprehensive, multi-layered signal detection system. Its core originality lies not in reinventing the MACD calculation, but in augmenting it with proprietary filtering mechanisms, quantitative signal scoring, and visual prioritization to enhance decision clarity and timing.
Core Functionality: What It Does and How It Achieves It
This indicator, titled "Crypto MACD Signals," is a dedicated, non-overlay oscillator built for clarity and actionability. It performs three primary functions simultaneously:
Enhanced MACD Visualization: It plots the traditional MACD line, Signal line, and Histogram with a refined color scheme. The histogram is dynamically colored (blue for bullish, orange for bearish) but introduces a key innovation: the identification of "Huge" or "Anomalous" Bars. A bar is highlighted in bright white when its size exceeds twice the 20-bar Simple Moving Average of the absolute histogram values. This instantly draws attention to moments of exceptional momentum surge or capitulation, which often precede significant trend accelerations or reversals.
Context-Aware Signal Generation: Instead of marking every MACD line crossover, the script applies a crucial logical filter. It only plots a "BUY" signal (green upward triangle) when a bullish crossover occurs while the histogram is below the zero line. Conversely, a "SELL" signal (red downward triangle) is plotted only when a bearish crossover occurs while the histogram is above the zero line. This filter ensures signals are generated in the context of a potential trend reversal from an oversold or overbought state, rather than during the middle of a strong trend, dramatically increasing the signal's statistical edge. This aligns with a classic "Oscillator Reversal from Extremes" methodology within trend-following systems.
Real-Time Performance Dashboard: A fixed table in the top-right corner serves as a live statistical dashboard. It tracks and displays the total count of:
Generated Buy Signals
Generated Sell Signals
Total "Huge" Histogram Bars (both bullish and bearish)
This provides traders with an at-a-glance understanding of recent market activity—whether it has been signal-rich or quiet, and the frequency of high-momentum events—aiding in assessing the current market regime (e.g., trending vs. consolidating).
Implementation and Practical Usage
The indicator is designed for tactical swing trading and momentum-based intraday positioning in crypto assets. Its primary use case is for identifying "Pullback Entries within a Trend" and "Early Trend Reversal Confirmations."
For Trend-Following: A trader in an established uptrend would wait for a pullback that drives the MACD histogram negative. A subsequent bullish crossover that triggers a "BUY" signal, especially if accompanied by a "Huge" bullish histogram bar, offers a high-confidence entry point to re-join the trend.
For Counter-Trend/Reversal Scenarios (Scalping): The script is highly effective for a specific scalping technique: "Fading Extreme Momentum Exhaustion." A cluster of "Huge" bearish bars followed by a diminishing histogram and a bullish crossover signal can indicate selling exhaustion, presenting a short-term long scalp opportunity. The inverse applies for short scalps. The labels ("🔥") and arrows provide clear visual cues for these setups directly on the chart.
Workflow: Traders are advised to first observe the statistical table to gauge recent activity. Then, they should look for convergence between a filtered arrow signal (BUY/SELL) and the appearance of a "Huge" bar or a cluster of them. This multi-factor confirmation is the cornerstone of the strategy.
Underlying Philosophy and Calculation Logic
The script's intelligence is built on a layered philosophy of "Momentum Quantification and Contextual Validation."
Dynamic Thresholding for Anomalies: The "Huge Bar" detection does not use a fixed threshold. By comparing the current histogram value to a recent average of absolute momentum (ta.sma(math.abs(hist_line), 20)), it creates an adaptive, market-responsive benchmark. A bar that is 200% larger than recent average momentum is statistically anomalous, suggesting institutional-sized order flow or a major shift in sentiment. This is a direct application of statistical volatility band principles to momentum, not price.
Signal Filtering for Phase Alignment: The conditional logic for plotting arrows (bullish_cross and hist_line < 0) ensures the MACD crossover signal is aligned with the correct momentum phase of the market cycle. A buy signal is only valid if momentum (histogram) is coming from a "recharging" or bearish area (below zero), not when it's already extended above zero. This prevents buying at a peak and selling at a trough, which is a common pitfall of the raw indicator. This embodies the trading axiom: "Trade the turn, not the continuation."
Quantitative Self-Awareness: The integrated counter and dashboard represent a meta-analysis layer. It allows the tool to provide feedback on its own performance density. A market generating many signals might be choppy and range-bound, while a market with few signals but several "Huge Bars" might be in a strong, steady trend. This helps the trader select the appropriate strategy (trend riding vs. reversal scalping) for the current environment.
In essence, this script synthesizes several respected trading concepts: the core trend/momentum logic of MACD, the anomaly detection common to volatility-based indicators like Keltner Channels, and the signal-verification philosophy of multi-indicator systems—all packaged into a single, coherent, and visually intuitive tool specifically tuned for the unique amplitude and speed of cryptocurrency markets.
FADE GIGA CANDLE STRAT# 🔥 FADE GIGA CANDLE STRATEGY
## Overview
The **Fade Giga Candle Strategy** is a contrarian trading indicator designed to identify extreme price movements (called "Giga Candles") and predict mean reversion opportunities. This strategy is specifically optimized for Polymarket's 15-minute crypto prediction markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) but can be applied to any timeframe.
**Core Concept:** When price makes an unusually large move with extreme RSI and high volume, it often reverses in the next period. This indicator detects those moments and signals to "fade" (bet against) the move.
---
## 📊 What Does It Do?
### Signal Generation
- **FADE BEARISH (📉)**: Detects massive green candles → Predicts price will go DOWN next
- **FADE BULLISH (📈)**: Detects massive red candles → Predicts price will go UP next
### Real-Time Stats
- Win Rate tracking
- Total Return calculation
- Expected Value (EV) analysis
- Breakeven threshold display (57.14% for 75% win / 100% loss structure)
### Visual Alerts
- Chart labels showing predictions
- Background highlighting on signal candles
- Stats table in top-right corner
- RSI indicator with overbought/oversold zones
---
## ⚙️ How It Works
### 1. Giga Candle Detection
The indicator analyzes the last 500 candles and identifies "Giga Candles" based on:
- **Body Size Percentile** (default 93rd): Only the top 7% largest candles qualify
- **Minimum Body %** (default 0.5%): Filters out noise on small moves
### 2. Confirmation Filters
Before generating a signal, the indicator checks:
**RSI Filter (Optional)**
- RSI must be ≥70 (overbought) OR ≤30 (oversold)
- Indicates price is at an extreme level
**Volume Filter (Optional)**
- Current volume must be ≥1.5x the 20-period average
- Confirms the move has conviction
### 3. Fade Logic
```
IF Giga Green Candle + RSI Extreme + High Volume
→ FADE BEARISH (predict DOWN)
IF Giga Red Candle + RSI Extreme + High Volume
→ FADE BULLISH (predict UP)
```
---
## 🎛️ Settings & Parameters
### Giga Candle Detection
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **Giga Candle Percentile** | 93.0 | 80-99 | Top X% of candles by body size. 93 = only top 7% qualify as "giga" |
| **Min Body % (Safety)** | 0.5 | 0.1-2.0 | Minimum body size as % of price. Prevents false signals on low volatility |
### RSI Filter
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **Use RSI Filter** | ON | ON/OFF | Require RSI to be extreme before signaling |
| **RSI Length** | 14 | 5-50 | Period for RSI calculation |
| **RSI Overbought** | 70 | 60-85 | Threshold for overbought condition |
| **RSI Oversold** | 30 | 15-40 | Threshold for oversold condition |
### Volume Filter
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **Use Volume Filter** | ON | ON/OFF | Require high volume before signaling |
| **Volume SMA Length** | 20 | 10-50 | Period for average volume calculation |
| **Volume Multiplier** | 1.5 | 1.0-3.0 | Current volume must be X times the average |
### Display Options
- **Show Signal Labels**: Display prediction labels on chart
- **Highlight Signal Candles**: Background color on signal bars
- **Show Stats Table**: Performance statistics in top-right
- **Enable Alerts**: Push notifications when signals occur
---
## 🚀 How to Use
### For Polymarket Trading (Recommended)
1. **Set timeframe to 15 minutes** (matches Polymarket market duration)
2. **Apply to BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP charts**
3. **Wait for signal:**
- 📉 FADE BEARISH → Buy "DOWN" on Polymarket
- 📈 FADE BULLISH → Buy "UP" on Polymarket
4. **Hold until market resolves** (15 minutes)
5. **Track your performance** using the stats table
### For Regular Trading
1. Use on any liquid crypto market
2. When signal appears, consider entering a mean-reversion trade
3. Set stop-loss at 100% of entry (built into expected value calculation)
4. Take profit at 75% gain (matches the 57.14% breakeven math)
### Understanding the Stats Table
**Win Rate**: Your prediction accuracy percentage
- **Target: >57.14%** (breakeven for 75% win / 100% loss structure)
- Green if profitable, red if unprofitable
**Expected Value (EV)**: Average % return per trade
- **Positive EV** = Strategy is profitable long-term
- **Negative EV** = Strategy is losing long-term
- Formula: `(WinRate% × 75) - (LossRate% × 100)`
**Total Return**: Cumulative % gain/loss across all signals
---
## 📈 Interpretation Guide
### Strong Signals
✅ Large giga candle (top 3-5%)
✅ RSI >75 or <25 (very extreme)
✅ Volume >2x average
✅ Signal appears after sustained trend
✅ Win rate >60% in recent trades
### Weak Signals (Consider Skipping)
⚠️ Borderline giga candle (barely above threshold)
⚠️ RSI only slightly extreme (71 or 29)
⚠️ Volume just meets minimum (1.5x)
⚠️ Signal appears during choppy/sideways market
⚠️ Win rate <50% in recent trades
---
## 💡 Pro Tips
### 1. Timeframe Matters
- **15-min**: Best for Polymarket, captures intraday exhaustion
- **1-hour**: Better for swing trading
- **5-min**: Too noisy, not recommended
### 2. Market Context
- Works best in **trending markets** that overextend
- Less effective in **tight ranges** (consolidation)
- Avoid during **low liquidity** hours (weekends, holidays)
### 3. Filter Tuning
**More Aggressive (More Signals)**
- Lower Giga Percentile (90th)
- Disable RSI filter
- Lower volume multiplier (1.2x)
**More Conservative (Fewer, Higher Quality)**
- Raise Giga Percentile (95th)
- Tighter RSI thresholds (75/25)
- Higher volume multiplier (2.0x)
### 4. Bankroll Management
- **Never bet >5% of capital** on a single signal
- Maintain 20+ bet bankroll minimum
- Use Kelly Criterion: `Bet% = (WinRate - LossRate) / 2`
- Example: 60% win rate → Bet ~10% of bankroll
### 5. Track Your Performance
- Monitor the stats table actively
- If win rate drops below 55% for 20+ trades, **stop trading**
- If EV goes negative, **reassess filters or market conditions**
- Keep a trading journal outside the indicator
---
## ⚠️ Risk Disclosure
### Important Warnings
1. **Past performance ≠ future results**: Backtested win rates may not hold in live trading
2. **Market conditions change**: Strategy may stop working if market dynamics shift
3. **Gambler's ruin risk**: Even profitable strategies can lose multiple trades in a row
4. **Polymarket specific**:
- Carries smart contract risk
- Subject to liquidity constraints
- Markets can resolve unexpectedly
5. **Not financial advice**: This is an educational tool, not a recommendation to trade
### Best Practices
- Start with **small position sizes** to test
- Track at least **50 signals** before evaluating performance
- Consider **paper trading** first (simulated trades)
- Never trade with money you can't afford to lose
- Understand the **57.14% breakeven** requirement
---
## 🔧 Troubleshooting
### "No signals appearing"
- Check if filters are too strict (try disabling RSI/Volume filters temporarily)
- Reduce Giga Percentile to 90th
- Ensure sufficient chart history loaded (>500 candles)
### "Too many signals"
- Increase Giga Percentile to 95th
- Enable both RSI and Volume filters
- Raise volume multiplier to 2.0x
### "Win rate seems low"
- Check if you're trading during low liquidity periods
- Verify you're using 15-min timeframe for Polymarket
- Consider market is in tight consolidation (strategy works best in trends)
---
## 📚 Technical Details
### Calculations
- **Body Size**: `|close - open|`
- **Body %**: `(bodySize / open) × 100`
- **Giga Threshold**: `percentile_nearest_rank(last 500 candles, 93rd)`
- **RSI**: Standard 14-period RSI
- **Volume Ratio**: `current_volume / SMA(volume, 20)`
### Performance Tracking
- Checks if previous signal was correct after 1 bar
- Win = +75% to total return
- Loss = -100% to total return
- Win Rate = `(correct_predictions / total_signals) × 100`
---
## 🎯 Ideal Use Cases
### ✅ Perfect For:
- Polymarket 15-minute crypto prediction markets
- Mean-reversion trading on liquid crypto pairs
- Contrarian traders who fade extremes
- Systematic traders who follow rules-based signals
### ❌ Not Ideal For:
- Trend-following strategies (this is contrarian)
- Low volatility assets (needs large moves)
- Illiquid markets (won't have "giga" candles)
- Sub-5-minute scalping (too much noise)
---
## 📞 Support & Updates
**Version**: 6.0
**Last Updated**: January 2025
**Compatible With**: TradingView Pine Script v6
### Feedback Welcome
If you find this indicator useful or have suggestions for improvement, please:
- ⭐ Leave a rating
- 💬 Comment with your results
- 🚀 Share your settings for different markets
**Good luck, and trade responsibly!** 🎯
---
## Quick Start Checklist
- Set timeframe to 15 minutes
- Load BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP chart
- Verify stats table shows in top-right
- Enable alerts for signal notifications
- Start with paper trading to validate
- Track at least 20 signals before going live
- Never bet more than 5% of bankroll per trade
- Monitor win rate and stop if <55%
**Remember: The goal is >57.14% win rate for profitability!**
Moon Declination & More [BlueprintResearch]🌒 MOON DECLINATION & MORE
A comprehensive lunar declination visualization showing Moon, Sun, and node declinations, with phase coloring, zodiac sign tracking, and future projections.
Part of the Blueprint Research open-source ephemeris project.
█ WHAT'S INCLUDED
• Moon Declination — The Moon's angular distance from the celestial equator, oscillating rapidly (~27 days)
• Sun Declination — Optional overlay showing the Sun's seasonal declination (±23.4°)
• Node Declinations — North (☊) and South (☋) node lines forming the Moon's orbital envelope
• Future Projections — Project all lines up to 500 bars into the future
• Zodiac Crossing Markers — Indicates when the North Node reaches a particular zodiac degree. Keep in mind, nodes move through the zodiac in reverse.
█ CONCEPTS
Declination measures how far north or south a celestial body appears from the celestial equator. The Moon's declination oscillates rapidly, while its maximum range shifts slowly over the 18.6-year nodal cycle.
Node Declination Envelope:
The North (☊) and South (☋) node lines mark the envelope of the Moon's orbit—the theoretical maximum northern and southern declinations the Moon can reach.
Lunar Standstills:
The 18.6-year nodal cycle determines when the Moon reaches its most extreme declinations. During a major standstill, the Moon can exceed ±28° declination. During a minor standstill, the Moon's range is limited to approximately ±18°.
Out-of-Bounds (OOB):
When the Moon moves beyond ±23.44° declination, it exceeds the Sun's maximum reach and is considered "Out of Bounds."
█ COLORING OPTIONS
Phase Coloring (Moon)
Color the Moon's declination line by lunar phase:
• New Moon (0-90°): Slate silver
• First Quarter (90-180°): Mint
• Full Moon (180-270°): Bright gold
• Last Quarter (270-360°): Soft violet
Zodiac Sign Coloring (Nodes)
Color the node lines by their zodiac sign. When enabled, a color legend appears at the top, showing all 12 signs for reference.
█ ZODIAC FEATURES
Zodiac Sign Coloring
Color the North and South Node lines according to their zodiac sign positions.
Zodiac Crossing
Marks when the North Node crosses a specific zodiac degree. Select any sign and degree (0-29) to track. The North Node moves retrograde through the zodiac over an 18.6-year cycle.
█ RESEARCH FEATURES
Standstill Thresholds
Horizontal reference lines at key declination levels:
• ±28.6° Major Standstill (peak of the 18.6-year cycle)
• ±18.3° Minor Standstill (trough of the cycle)
• ±23.4° Out-of-Bounds threshold
OOB Highlighting
Optional background shading when the Moon exceeds the OOB threshold.
Node Equatorial Crossings
Crosshair markers indicate when the node's declination crosses 0° (equatorial passage).
Reference Line Labels
Labels at projection endpoints with an adjustable offset for readability.
█ FEATURES
• Moon declination with optional lunar phase coloring
• Sun declination overlay
• North and South node declinations (☊ and ☋)
• Future projections up to 500 bars
• Zodiac sign coloring with a color legend
• Zodiac degree-crossing markers
• Node equatorial-crossing markers
• Out-of-Bounds background highlighting
• Reference line labels with offset control
• Customizable line widths and colors
• Informative tooltips for all settings
• Works on all timeframes
█ HOW TO USE
1 — Add the indicator to your chart
2 — Configure which elements to display (Moon, Sun, Nodes)
3 — Enable future projections to view upcoming declination values
4 — Enable Zodiac coloring to track node sign positions
5 — Set a Zodiac Crossing degree to mark when the North Node crosses that point
6 — Enable Standstill Thresholds to show reference lines
7 — Toggle phase coloring to visualize the lunar cycle
█ THEORY
Lunar Theory: ELP2000-82 by Chapront-Touzé & Chapront
Solar Theory: VSOP87 for Sun position and phase calculation
Reference: Meeus, "Astronomical Algorithms" (2nd Ed., 1998)
█ LIMITATIONS
• Truncated ELP2000-82 theory (~10 arcseconds precision)
• Future projections assume consistent bar timing
• Phase coloring uses 4 phases (not the 8 traditional phases)
• Mean nodes only (no perturbation corrections)
█ OPEN SOURCE
Blueprint Research Ephemeris Libraries:
• lib_elp2000_moon — Lunar position and mean node calculations
• lib_vsop_core — Solar position and coordinate utilities
• lib_ephemeris — Unified planetary API
Third-Party Libraries:
• hsvColor by @kaigouthro — HSV color utilities (MPL 2.0)
© 2025-2026 BlueprintResearch (Javonnii) • CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
[PAPI] TF-OBV-ATR-Weighted MACDThis is a MACD indicator with a few differences:
Multi-Timeframe: The indicator calculates the "MACD", the "Signal" and the "Histogram" for four user-defined timeframes.
Volume weighted: The three MACD variables calculated for each timeframe above are weight-averaged according to On Balance Volume (OBV).
Volatility weighted: The three MACD variables calculated for each time frame above are also weight-averaged according to Average True Range (ATR)
The MACD, Signal and Histogram are plotted.
I use the indicator twice. Once with the user defined Timeframes set to high TFs (Month/Week/Day/4h) - this is for directional bias. And once with lower TFs (1m/3m/15m/1h).
[PAPI] TF-OBV-ATR-Weighted MACDThis is a MACD indicator with a few differences:
Multi-Timeframe: The indicator calculates the "MACD", the "Signal" and the "Histogram" for four user-defined timeframes.
Volume weighted: The three MACD variables calculated for each timeframe above are weight-averaged according to On Balance Volume (OBV).
Volatility weighted: The three MACD variables calculated for each time frame above are also weight-averaged according to Average True Range (ATR)
The MACD, Signal and Histogram are plotted.
I use the indicator twice. Once with the user defined Timeframes set to high TFs (Month/Week/Day/4h) - this is for directional bias. And once with lower TFs (1m/3m/15m/1h).
