CRC.i Bollinger Bands ®This script is yet another variant of the famous Bollinger Bands® TA tool used to track price volatility as it deviates from the mean of a security using standard deviations (positive &negative). Built for my own personal preferences. But perhaps you might like it, too.
Includes
+ Chart Lines: price, upper and lower bands
+ User Options: SMA length, stdev value
+ Heads up Display (HUD) with TARGET's and other related stats
Bugs? Comments? Requests? Ping me @calmrat
Bitcoin (Kriptopara)
Average Total Price From BottomThis is an indicator to help determine where the bottom of the market is currently based on the average close of the previous cycle. This is an idea from @Jay_DCA on YouTube and I thought it would be fun to code. Enjoy!
How to use:
Specify the date at which the bottom of the markets occurred. I added two extra cycle inputs for future usability. So, when the current bottom is found of this bull cycle, make sure to change the date in Bottom 3.
ROC vs BTCThis is a modification of my Rate of Change Percentile script, used to compare the current ticker (e.g. Altcoins) to BTC.
Essentially we are looking at (Current Ticker ROC percentile) vs (Bitcoin ROC percentile).
In other words, we are using the ROC value of both the current ticker and BTC, and ranking each based on their previous ROC.
We compare the rankings to gauge the relative overperformance or underperformance of the current ticker vs BTC.
The blue line is BTC, the columns are the current ticker.
Green columns above the blue line indicate positive ROC and current ticker has higher ROC ranking than BTC.
Red columns below the blue line indicate negative ROC and current ticker has a higher ROC ranking than BTC.
*** PLEASE LEAVE A LIKE AND FOLLOW IF YOU ENJOY THE SCRIPT ***
Any questions, comments or feedback I'd love to hear from you below!
Glassnode BTC SOPR ToolkitSOPR stand for Spent Output Profit Ratio. It’s a Bitcoin on-chain metric that shows whether Bitcoin spent outputs (UTXO’s) are being realized in profit or loss. It’s calculated by dividing realized value by the value at creation (price sold / price paid).
The SOPR metric traditionally uses a baseline of 1 instead of 0. For the purposes of the script, I've changed the baseline to 0.
SOPR signals > 0 show the overall market is transaction at a profit.
SOPR signals < 0 show the overall market is transacting at a loss.
SOPR servers as a great short/mid-term indicator.
SOPR Toolkit Features
- Smoothed SOPR
- SOPR Spikes
Smoothed SOPR
By default, ‘Smoothed SOPR’ is shown which applies a smoothing function to SOPR. This helps to visualize the broader SOPR trend.
Smoothed SOPR is calculated by taking the difference between positive and negative SOPR values.
SOPR is split into separate arrays based on if it's above or below the baseline A moving average is then applied to each array, then subtracted to get the difference.
You can also change whether or not a SMA, EMA, or Volume Weighted Simple/Exponential moving average is used. The VWMA is calculated using Glassnode’s BTC Total Transfer Volume metric.
SOPR Spikes
Shows relevant SOPR spikes.
SOPR spikes is calculated by applying a Bollinger Band to SOPR. Only values spike outside the bands are shown.
Adjust the StdDev to show more/less relevant spikes.
Enjoy :)
Universal logarithmic growth curves, with support and resistanceLogarithmic regression is used to model data where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. This model is for the long term series data (such as 10 years time span).
The user can consider entering the market when the price below 25% or 5% confidence and consider take profit when the price goes above 75% or 95% confidence line.
This script is:
- Designed to be usable in all tickers. (not only for bitcoin now!)
- Logarithmic regression and shows support-resistance level
- Shape of lines are all linear adjustable
- Height difference of levels and zones are customizable
- Support and resistance levels are highlighted
Input panel:
- Steps of drawing: Won't change it unless there are display problems.
- Resistance, support, other level color: self-explanatory.
- Stdev multipliers: A constant variable to adjust regression boundaries.
- Fib level N: Base on the relative position of top line and base line. If you don't want all fib levels, you might set all fib levels = 0.5.
- Linear lift up: vertically lift up the whole set of lines. By linear multiplication.
- Curvature constant: It is the base value of the exponential transform before converting it back to the chart and plotting it. A bigger base value will make a more upward curvy line.
FAQ:
Q: How to use it?
A: Click "Fx" in your chart then search this script to get it into your chart. Then right click the price axis, then select "Logarithmic" scale to show the curves probably.
Q: Why release this script?
A: - This script is intended to to fix the current issues of bitcoins growth curve script, and to provide a better version of the logarithmic curve, which is not only for bitcoin , but for all kinds of tickers.
- In the public library there is a hardcoded logarithmic growth curve by @quantadelic . But unfortunately that curve was hardcoded by his manual inputs, which makes the curve stop updating its value since 2019 the date he publish that code. Many users of that script love using it but they realize it was stop updating, many users out there based on @quantadelic version of "bitcoin logarithmic growth curves" and they tried their best to update the coordinates with their own hardcode input values. Eventually, a lot of redundant hardcoded "Bitcoin growth curve" scripts was born in the public library. Which is not a good thing.
Q: What about looking at the regression result with a log scale price axis?
A: You can use this script that I published in a year ago. This script display the result in a log scale price axis.
BTC Golden Bottom with Adaptive Moving AverageIntroduction:
This study uses Adaptive Moving Average with 1 year of length to plot on all time history Index Calculated by Tradingview . All previous $BTC bear runs bottomed on this curve which makes it important enough. Use this only on " "
Default Values:
AMA length is 1 year
Minor length is 50
Major length is 100
BTC Puell Multiple with alert functionThe Puell Multiple examines the fundamentals of mining profitability and the way they shape market cycles. It is calculated by taking a ratio of daily coin issuance (in USD) and the 365 moving average of daily coin issuance (in USD).
Interpretation of the Puell Multiple can generally be considered in the following framework:
high values indicate that current miner profitability if high compared to the yearly average. As such, the incentive for miners to liquidate their treasuries is high and greater sell pressure may be expected.
Low values indicate that current miner profitability is low compared to the yearly average. As such, income stress may become a factor, and some miners may need to start reducing hash-power by switching off rigs. This increases the hash-share of remaining miners who can then sell fewer coins to cover their operations, reducing their impact on liquid supply.
Halving events will drop the current coin issuance by 50% relative to the preceding year creating an immediate halving of the Puell Multiple also. The effect on miner profitability will thus be as per the point on low values above.
GBTC PremiumCalculates the historical and current premium/discount for a share of Grayscale GBTC vs. Bitcoin spot price.
60-Day Accumulated Increasing RateIs this Bitcoin bull run still driven by new investors and new funds? Definitely. That’s why the 60-day accumulative increasing rate is so important and it can even determine everything. The only thing that can be trusted is the math. In history, each capital inflow uptrend bull run has ended once the 60-day accumulative increasing rate reached a high level and when the short-term euphoric investors push BTC price to rise at a fast speed and use up all kinds of leverages. At that point, there’s no time for new investors and new funds to flow in, thus the cryptocurrency market will crash from the global top.
In that sense, the crashes on 4th September, 2017 and 19th May, 2021 didn’t end the bull run, instead,they lengthened the bull run span.The last bull run cycle (2017) might have ended prematurely when BTC reached $10,000, recording 150% accumulated increase over 60 days. Then BTC won’t be pumped up to $20,000 if the course wasn’t interrupted by September 4th, 2017 incident.
Technical analysts(they are far from trustworthy, full of bollocks) call the correction of BTC: “consolidation or wipeout”, just like that diabetes is called as Liver Qi Stagnation, weight lossing, being thirsty and other symptoms. It’s quite fun to watch so many people explaining it in a false concept. Everyone knows what the maths is. That’s enough.
PS: This indicator can only be applied to Bitcoin daily chart!
Trendalix EntriesThis script is made to simplify the analysis of trends. It changes the mas based on whether you're looking at stocks or crypto. As these 2 markets currently move differently, they need a slightly different approach.
Crypto trends:
Can move much faster than stocks. Ideally the price should be bouncing above the williams alligators (about the 20-30 MAs).
Stocks:
These swing more than crypto so you need to get deep into these swing to be buying at the bottom of a move. The MAs are much larger, between the 50ma and 400ma. It's much more important here that the slower MAs are strong, i.e 200ma is above the 400ma, than it is that the faster MAs are okay.
For stocks an entry and stop line is drawn. These are only visible when the market is sufficiently in a pullback.
Aggregated BTC SpreadThis script is used to aggregate the bitcoin spread on futures contracts on different platforms.
It works by averaging the for every selected exchange, and apply an EMA of .
It is supporting
Binance (USD / USDT)
Okex
FTX
Huobi
Deribit
Ascendex
CME (BTC1!)
Dominion - Bitcoin Altcoin Dominance [mutantdog]A simple and easy reference tool displaying a plot of the market cap dominance values for several significant cryptocurrencies.
The most widely used of these is bitcoin dominance (the top indicator shown above) which calculates the total market cap of bitcoin in relation to the total cryptocurrency market cap, displayed as a percentage. This is commonly used by traders to assess the strength of bitcoin in relation to the broader crypto market; increasing values being indicative of larger bitcoin moves and decreasing values often indicative of potential altcoin cycles. Likewise, ethereum dominance (the bottom indicator shown above) is frequently used as a means to indicate the strength of ethereum in relation to the broader crypto market.
Included options for marketcap dominance values are:
Bitcoin : CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Ethereum : CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D
Total DeFi (a composite of multiple top defi tokens): CRYPTOCAP:TOTALDEFI.D
Stablecoins (shows the combined dominance values for usdt and usdc): CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D + CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D
Flippening (shows the difference between bitcoin and ethereum dominance values): CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D - CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D
When used in combination with each other, these can provide a good overview of the general flow of capital within the crypto market.
Additional functionality:
up to three optional moving averages with a choice of SMA, EMA, WMA and RMA for each.
multi timeframe selector
alert condition presets for various moving average crosses.
Please be aware that, while useful as reference, dominance calculations are known to repaint frequently. As such the use of this indicator and its alerts should require caution.
RECON ATR Volatility PercentageThe original Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a technical analysis indicator designed to measure volatility. The higher the ATR the higher the volatility.
The RECON ATR Volatility Percentage indicator calculates the Average True Range (ATR) as a percentage.
Suggested chart timeframes: 1h, 4h and 1D seem to produce the most useful intel but can be used on lower timeframes as well.
The Recon ATR Volatility Percentage can be utilized for identifying trading pairs with a desired amount of volatility, for example deploying a grid trading strategy on pairs that are trending up with a high amount of volatility (say over 50%) might produce desirable results.
It is important to note the ATR does not indicate price direction and can be high in both a rising or falling market.
The ATR Length, Period Look Back Length parameters as well as the color of the columns can be configured per your specifications.
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
SSR - Stablecoin Supply Ratio - Bitcoin - CryptocurrencyThe Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is the ratio between Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins, denominated in BTC.
When the SSR is low, the current stablecoin supply has more "buying power" to purchase BTC. It serves as a proxy for the supply/demand mechanics between BTC and USD.
Pi Cycle Top Ribbon [Mamo]This is a modification on the original Pi Cycle Top Indicator by Philip Swift.
It consists of 2 moving averages with one of them being multiplied by a chosen number. When the lower moving average crosses the higher (with multiple) moving average, the bull market top is indicated.
The original indicator showed bull market tops within a 3 day accuracy. This version shows the exact tops on the exact day for 2013 and 2017.
There are 7 different perfect solution shown as a band in this modified indicator. Each solution is a color pair and can be viewed separately by turning each combination off or on in the settings.
[DS]Bitcoin BTC ETH and others cryptos==DESCRIPTION - English version
The purpose of this script is to show information on graph that can help your decision to buy and sell cryptos.
The script is indicated for Position Trade (Long Term - Holder) and Swing Trade (Medium term).
Position Trade it is recommended to use the Weekly (W) and Daily (D) charts, Swing trade to use the 4H and 2H charts.
It is not advisable to use this indicator with graphic time frame less than 2 hours because the noise levels of information are very high.
An alert function has been inserted in the indicator and to activate this function you will need configure it in the Tradingview.
This alert will indicate the likely points of entry and exit of the asset.
**DESCRIÇÃO - Versão em Português
A proposta deste script é mostrar no gráfico informações que possam auxiliar a sua decisão de compra e venda de cryptos.
Este script é indicado para negociação Position Trade (Longo Prazo - Holders) e Swing Trade (Médio prazo).
Para Position Trade (Holders) é indicado utilizar os gráficos Semanal (W) e Diário (D), para Swing trade utilizar os gráficos 4H e 2H.
Não é aconselhável utilizar este indicador com tempos gráficos menores que 2hs pois os níveis de ruídos nas informação são muito altos.
Foi inserido no indicador uma função de alerta e para ativar esta função, você precisará configurá-la no seu Tradingview.
Este alerta irá indicar os provaveis pontos de entrada e saída do ativo.
====================================================================================================
** English Version
====================================================================================================
█ SETUP applied to Indicator
The setup is based on the average 8, 21 and 56 of the weekly chart (taught on youtube channel: Augusto Backes)
Price above the average 8 on the weekly, indicates that the market is UP trend, below the average 8 on the weekly that the market is DOWN trend
RSI greater than 60% the market is UP trend
RSI greater than 40% and lower 60% the market is in ACCUMULATION
RSI less than 40% the market DOWN trend
The weekly average 8 is represented in GREEN (Upward Trend) and RED (Downward Trend).
The weekly average 21 is represented in LIGHT ORANGE
The weekly average 56 is represented in LIGHT PURPLE
The crossing of weekly averages 8 and 21 is represented with a GREEN (HIGH trend) and RED (LOW trend) cross - this signal is disabled on the graph but you can enable it by clicking on the graph setup
█ FUNCTION USE
(1) Average 8, 21 and 56 on Weekly - show the average 8, 21, 56 weekly on graphic (Average 8 in color red and green, 21 - light orange, 56 light purple)
(2) Crossing of averages 8 and 21 Weekly - is not active but you can activate
(3) Calculation of RSI
(4) barcolor() - mark the candles with the green color (High market) and red color (Dow market)
(5) alertcondition() - you can active this alert on Tadingview
█ BUY AND SELL POINTS - likely points
The indication of the BUY position is shown by a green arrow pointing upwards and the sell position by a red arrow pointing downwards. Buy and sell indications are obtained from the divergence in the market trend.
█ THANK TO
PineCoders for everything they do, all the tools and help they provide, and their involvement in making a better community. All PineCoders, Pine Pros and Pine Wizards, people who share their work and knowledge because of it and helping others, I am so happy and so grateful.
█ NOTE
This indicator is not a buy and sell recommendation, it indicates the most likely buy and sell points. Every purchase and sale decision is your responsibility
*****************************************************************************************************
** Versão em Português
*****************************************************************************************************
█ SETUP aplicado no Indicador
O setup está baseado na média 8, 21, e 56 do gráfico semanal
Preço acima da média 8 no semanal indica que o mercado esta em tendência de ALTA, abaixo da média 8 no semanal que o mercado está em tendência de BAIXA
RSI maior que 60% o mercado está em ALTA
RSI maior que 40% e menor 60% o mercado está em ACUMULAÇÃO
RSI menor que 40% o mercado está em BAIXA
A média 8 semanal está representadas nas cores VERDE (Tendência de Alta) e VERMELHA (Tendência de Baixa).
A média 21 semanal está representada na cor laranja claro
A média 56 semanal está representada na cor roxa claro
O cruzamento das médias 8 e 21 semanal esta representado com uma cruz VERDE (Tendência de ALTA) e VERMELHA (Tendência de BAIXA) - este sinal esta desativado no gráfico mas você pode ativá-lo clicando no setup do gráfico
█ FUNÇÕES UTILIZADAS
(1) Média 8, 21 e 56 no Semanal - mostra a média 8, 21, e 56 no gráfico
(2) Cruzamento das médias 8 e 21 Semanal - não está ativo mas você pode ativá-lo
(3) Cálculo do RSI
(4) barcolor() - marca a vela (Candle) com a cor verde (Mercado em Alta) e a cor vermelha (Mercado em Baixa)
(5) alertcondition () - você pode ativar o alerta no Tradingview
█ PONTOS DE COMPRA E VENDA - prováveis pontos
A indicação da posição de COMPRA é apresentada por uma seta na cor verde apontada para cima e a posição de VENDA por uma seta na cor vermelha apontada para baixo. As indicações de compra e venda são obtidas a partir da divergência na tendência do mercado.
█ OBRIGADO PARA
PineCoders por tudo o que fazem, todas as ferramentas e ajuda que fornecem, e seu envolvimento em fazer uma comunidade melhor. Todos os PineCoders, Pine Pros e Pine Wizards, pessoas que compartilham seu trabalho e conhecimento por causa dele e ajudando os outros, estou muito feliz e muito grato.
█ NOTA
Este indicador não é uma recomendação de compra e venda ele indica os pontos mais prováveis de compra e venda. Toda decisão de compra e venda é de sua responsabilidade
Crypto Scannner for Traffic Lights StrategyI allways try to make trading easier. Developing Scripts for a quick backtest and improvement of a strategy, getting alerts for entry and exit a position. Loading data to a spreadsheet is also important and takes time.
In this case finding good parameters in different markets or assets to enter in a position, is a bit exhausting. It is something you have to do everyday, and sometimes in different moments of the day.
So I manage to develop a Screener, to take a quick look at specific hours, and tell if I have a buy or sell condition in an specific asset. Obviously this is not an alert to make a trade instantaneusly, but this help you filter a lot of information in matters of seconds. Then open those specific charts and make a better analisys.
A few weeks ago, I published a scrpipt called "Traffic Lights Strategy", that uses 4 emas to get a buy or a sell condition.
It is easy to understand and use, but if you don´t want to missed some opportunities, and don't want to be look at the screen in all the time looking for them, I have here a simple solution.
This script works plotting 2 labels. The first one plots all the assets in which the condition is true (fastema > medema > slowema > filterema or fastema < medema < slowema < filterema)
The second one plots the assets were the condition is true only if happened up to 5 candles back, so you can be in time to enter a trade.
You can take the script and customize it for a different strategy or assets. I coded like this because I backtested this strategy in this specific assets, and statistics suggest that it might be profitable.
I hope this works for you. In other time I'll try to code a script for the others strategies I published.
Bitcoin - CME Futures Friday Close
This indicator displays the weekly Friday closing price according to the CME trading hours (Friday 4pm CT).
A horizontal line is displayed until the CME opens again on Sunday 5pm CT.
This indicator is based on the thesis, that during the weekend the Bitcoin price tends to mean reverse to the CME closing price of the prior Friday. The level can also act as support/resistance. This indicator gives a visualization of this key level for the relevant time window.
Furthermore the indicator helps to easily identify, if there is an up or down gap in the CME Bitcoin contract.
Bitcoin Risk Indicator (Daily)This indicator calculates the risk of buying and selling BTC, if the risk is reaching the upper boundaries of 0.8 to 1 then BTC is either getting close to a market cycle top or is far over extended.
If BTC is below 0.4 then this inidicates the least amount of Risk to buy BTC.
Multiple Anchored VWAP [Morty]The Anchored VWAP (aVWAP) indicator ties VWAP calculations to a specific price bar chosen by the trader. Anchored VWAP allows you to specify the price bar where calculations begin, making it easy to see whether the bulls or bears have been in charge since a very specific point in time. The starting price bar that is chosen generally marks a shift in market psychology, such as a significant high or low, earnings, news, or other announcements. The Anchored VWAP line is charted using price and volume data from that significant event onward.
This indicator plots up to 4 aVWAP lines in the chart.
Features:
- plot up to 4 aVWAP lines
- custom start date of aVWAP
- custom line color
- optional label of starting price bar
- optional custom resolution
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锚定VWAP(aVWAP)指标将VWAP的计算与交易者选择的特定价格柱联系起来。锚定VWAP允许你指定计算开始的价格柱,使你很容易看到自一个非常具体的时间点以来,是牛市还是熊市在起作用。所选择的起始价格条通常标志着市场心理的转变,如一个重要的高点或低点、收益、新闻或其他公告。锚定VWAP线是使用从该重大事件开始的价格和成交量数据绘制的。
该指标在图表中最多绘制了4条aVWAP线。
特色:
- 绘制多达4条aVWAP线
- 自定义aVWAP的开始日期
- 自定义线的颜色
- 可选的起始价格条的标签
- 可选的自定义分辨率
Bitcoin Logarithmic Fractal Growth Model By ARUDDThis model, which I'm calling the Logarithmic Fractal Growth Mode (L.F.G) , uses Bitcoin's mathematical monetary policy to evaluate the future possible price valuation.
It takes into account fractal (and logarithmic) growth as well as how those who hold bitcoins might react to certain events such as changes in supply and demand. It also shows that it is mathematically logical that someday it must become stable.
The information gained from knowing this helps people make more informed decisions when buying bitcoin and thinking of its future possibilities.
The model can serve as some type of general guideline for determining how much bitcoins should be worth in the future if it follows a certain path from its current price.
Modeling Bitcoin's money supply mathematically, and knowing that there is a finite number of them, makes this whole process much more rational than just thinking about the possibilities in pure subjective terms.
Before going any further I want to say that no one can know with absolute certainty what will happen to bitcoins price in the future, but using mathematics gives us an idea of where things are headed.
The results presented here are based on very reasonable assumptions for how bitcoin might continue to grow (and then level out) once there are over 21 million bitcoins in existence.
The model shows that bitcoin's price can never go down to zero (thus creating the "death spiral" phenomenon), and as such, bitcoin has an extremely high probability of becoming stable as it approaches infinity.
Conversely, this model also shows that at some point there is a high probability that bitcoin will not continue to grow exponentially forever.
Credit goes to Quantadelic for the awesome original script.
ARUDD