NQ Hourly Probability of PHH/PHL Break

NQ Hourly Probability of PHH/PHL Break
This indicator provides a statistical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) on an hourly timeframe. It displays the historical probability of the current hour's candle breaking above the previous hour's high (PHH) or below the previous hour's low (PHL). The probabilities are contextual, changing based on the current hour of the day and the price's position relative to key levels.
It's made for traders who want to incorporate a data-driven approach into their intraday strategy.
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SUMMARY
The core function of this tool is to display a real-time probability table on your chart. This table answers the question: "Based on historical data for this specific time of day and market context, what is the likelihood that price will break out of the previous hour's range?"
The indicator calculates these probabilities based on two key contextual conditions:
1. Is the current price above or below the Midnight Open price?
2. Is the current price above or below the midpoint of the previous hour's range?
By combining these conditions with the current hour, the indicator looks up the relevant historical statistics and presents them clearly.
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FEATURES
• Probability Table: The main feature of the indicator. It displays the probability of breaking the Previous Hour High (PHH), the probability of breaking the Previous Hour Low (PHL), and the probability of the price staying within the range (No Breakout). It also shows the sample size for each statistic.
• Dynamic Color Coding: The table automatically highlights the most probable outcome in green, the second most probable in orange, and the least probable in red, allowing for a quick and easy assessment.
• Previous Hour Levels: Automatically plots the previous hour's high and low at the start of each new hour, providing key intraday levels for reference.
• Customizable Display: You have full control over the appearance, including line colors, styles, widths, and the text size of the probability table.
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HOW TO USE
This indicator is designed for confluence, not as a standalone signal generator. It helps you frame your expectations for the current trading hour.
• Assessing Bias: If the table shows a high probability (e.g., >65%) of a breakout to the upside, you might have more confidence in looking for long opportunities or holding a long position through the PHH.
• Range-Bound Conditions: If the "No Breakout" probability is the highest, it suggests that a ranging or mean-reverting environment is more likely for that hour. You might be more cautious about chasing breakouts and instead look for trades within the previous hour's range.
• Context is Key: Always use this information in conjunction with your own analysis of market structure, order flow, and other factors.
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IMPORTANT NOTES
• Asset Specific: The statistical data within this indicator is specifically calculated for NQ1! (Nasdaq 100 Futures). It will not be accurate for other assets like ES, BTC, or Forex pairs.
• Historical Data: These are historical probabilities and are not a guarantee of future results. Market dynamics can and do change. This tool is for educational and informational purposes to show what has happened in the past under similar conditions.
• Not Financial Advice: This script does not constitute financial advice. All trading decisions are your own responsibility.
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USERINPUT
• Table Text Size: Adjust the size of the text in the probability table (Tiny, Small, Normal, Large).
• Show Midnight & PH Mid Lines: Toggle the visibility of the Midnight Open and Previous Hour Midpoint lines.
• Show Previous Hour High/Low Lines: Toggle the visibility of the PHH and PHL lines.
• Show Line Labels: Toggle the "phh" and "phl" text labels.
• Line Customization: Full control over the color, width, and style (Solid, Dotted, Dashed) for the high and low lines.