Linton Price Targets(R)

Linton Price Targets
A groundbreaking new way of projecting price targets and when they will be met in the future.

Point and figure charts have largely fallen out of favour in recent decades with the birth of personal computing and electronic data services. Few software systems calculate them correctly, and the technique is seen as outdated and difficult for the newcomer to technical analysis to understand. Linton Price Targets takes the point and figure methodology for producing vertical count targets and applies them to time-based charts that are much more widely used for technical analysis.

To place Point and figure price targets on a time-based chart, we first need to relate the conditions that produce the vertical count targets. Vertical Targets are only generated with uninterrupted moves off a high or a low point in prices. A pullback of at least 3 boxes locks the thrust column and therefore the price target. A move of at least one box above (in the case of an upside target off a low) or one box below (downside off a high) ‘activates’ the price target. Here the buyers and sellers respectively are confirmed. Conversely a move below the base of an upside target column, or above the top of a downside column ‘negates’ the vertical target. In this case, the buyers and sellers have been superseded by subsequent events.

Projecting Price
The price projection following the point and figure 3-Box method is relatively straightforward. The standard projection used is twice the original move from the top of the initial thrust level. This derives from the 3-Box construction devised by Cohen, whereby the initial thrust count is a third of the overall price count projection. But there is no reason to limit the Target Price Factor to the value to 2. A value of 1 could be used in the case of consolidation patten where the move out of the pattern is roughly equivalent to the move into the pattern. A value of 1.618 could be used for Fibonacci Retracements or Extensions or a value of 2 x log, can be used to deal with increasing box (unit) sizes as price changes.

Projecting Time
Projecting a potential price target with is relatively straight forward. Determining a time in the future when such a price target will be met is more of a challenge. This has been seen as one of the major drawbacks of point and figure charts for decades. Because there is no time axis on a Point and figure chart, there is no saying when a count projection target will be met.

For the Time to Target, we need to consider potential methodologies such as:
1. Price to Time Ratio – t units of price for every x units of time – ie $1 every 2 days
2. Thrust Angle Factor – a factor x the initial trust angle for the target angle
3. Time to Activation Factor – time to target is x the time taken for a target to activate
4. Follow the Price – track prices as the progress to target and adjust time to target accordingly
5. Historical Average Slope – historical average price time average for last n targets

Considering the Price to Time Ratio method, Chart 1 below shows a chart of the price targets for the US stock Applied Materials with a Unit size of $1. The targets are projected Log Scale 2x the initial thrust. From this chart we see that the target prices are reached later than the projection predicted. This means that we need to consider a lesser slope. Chart 2 below shows the same chart with the slope now adjusted to $1 every three days. This chart shows that recent targets for Applied Materials have been approximately met with this slope. Therefore, this is a better slope to use in this instance.

Chart 1 - Applied Materials (unit size $1) - target projection slope $1 every 2 days


Chart 2 - Applied Materials (unit size $1) - target projection slope $1 every 3 days


Chart 3 - Applied Materials (unit size $1) - target projection slope 1/2 initial thrust slope


The second method of projecting price targets assumes the time that a price target will be reached is directly related to the speed of the initial thrust, which generates the target. Chart 3 shows the same security as in the previous examples but using this method with an angle of slope which is half the initial thrust angle. The factor can also be altered with this method to best fit the data. In the previous examples (Charts 1 & 2) we see the slope of each of the targets is constant. Using the Thrust Angle Factor method, different buying and selling thrust angles produces different target slopes.

A third possible projection method assumes that the longer a price target takes to activate, the longer it takes for a target to be reached. The argument goes that the pullback from the initial thrust is more of a consolidation phase rather than a sharp reaction and therefore, the potential overall move will take longer. Chart 4 shows this method. Again, we see that, due to the varying times of price targets to activate, the slopes of the targets are not uniform as in Method 1 which uses a consistent price to time slope.

Chart 4: Applied Materials (unit size $1) – target projection x times the time taken for target to activate.


Chart 5: Applied Materials (unit size $1) – target projection readjusts with new price information


A fourth method for predicting when in the future that a price target might be met adjusts the slope of the targets from the activation point as new price information arrives. With multiple targets activated at different points on the chart, this method also produces price targets of different slopes. Because targets are readjusted with every new price, it is best to set this method to ignore the last x bars in order to spot any divergence from the targets. Chart 5 shows this methodology.

Chart 6 shows a method where the average slope of price over time is taken for the previous n targets that are achieved and used as the slope for projecting targets into the future. While the slopes for upward and downward targets can be separately adjusted with the previous methods mentioned, this method automatically calculates the different slope speeds of upside and downside targets.

Chart 6: Applied Materials (unit size $1) – target projection based on the average slope of the last x targets.


Multiple Price Targets

As with Point and figure count targets, multiple price targets point to the same price or price level increases the likelihood of price targets being met. This is known as ‘clustering’. Now with the ability to project price targets to a future date on a chart, it is not only possible to see clustering of the price of multiple targets, but also clustering of times targets may be met. This can lead to a ‘cluster zone’, an area of price and time in the future that multiple targets may be met. Chart 7 shows an example of this.

Chart 7: Applied Materials (unit size $1) – target zone of future price and time of multiple targets


Achievement and Non-Achievement of Price Targets and Prevailing Trend
Point and figure targets are approximate and are more often than not, not met precisely. They are regularly not achieved or exceeded, but this provides valuable information in itself. Upside price targets that are achieved or exceeded shows bullish confirmation, whereas these targets not being achieved indicates a degree of bearishness. Conversely, downside price targets achieved or exceeded is bearish confirmation and such targets not achieved is an indication of inherent bullishness.
Unsurprisingly, price targets are normally achieved or exceeded in line with the prevailing trend. Upside price targets should be given more weight in uptrends, while downside ones may only serve as a temporary moment for caution, because they are counter-trend. Downside Targets will carry more weight in downtrends. It is also often the case that the last target in line with the prevailing trend is never met as the trend changes and a new set of targets in the opposite direction are generated with the new reversal of trend. Active price targets in both directions are often an early sign of this. This is particularly true with multiple targets in the new trend direction verses one lone target in the previous trend direction. This lone target is likely to be negated, clearly signalling the new trend direction is taking hold.

Activation and Negation of Price Targets
An upside price target is only activated when prices rise a further than a full price unit above the top of the initial uninterrupted buying thrust in prices from a low. A low is defined by a price level at least one full price unit below a previous recent low. The pullback downwards of at least three price units ‘locks’ the initial thrust that generates the upside price target. Here the bulls buying from the bottom have been confirmed.

A downside price target is only activated when prices fall further than a full price unit below the bottom of the initial uninterrupted selling thrust in prices from a high. A high is defined by a price level at least one full price unit above a previous recent high. The pullback upwards of at least three price units ‘locks’ the initial thrust that generates the downside price target. Here the bears selling from the top have been confirmed.

A target is valid once the column is locked with the pullback of at least three units, but it should not be considered as active until the price breaks through the activation level. An unactivated target serves as advance notice that a target is in place and will become active once the activation price level is broken.

An upside price target is negated if prices fall below the bottom of the initial uninterrupted buying thrust in prices. In this instance the bulls have been beaten by the bears. Conversely, a downside price target is negated if prices rise above the top of the initial uninterrupted Selling thrust in prices. Here the bears selling from the top have been beaten by the bulls.

It is important to note the difference between a target that is activated first and then negated and a target that was never activated and negated first. Research shows that normally more than half of all negated targets were never activated and wouldn’t have been taken. Taking the prevailing trend into account further reduces the number of negated targets that would have been taken at the activation point.

Evaluating a Target as Price Progress
Because Linton Price targets can be evaluated with subsequent new price information with the passage of time, it becomes possible to see more easily, than on a point and figure chart, when a target might be failing. The ideas of activation, negation, and achievement of price targets are understood in point and figure charting and apply similarly here to time-based charts. But the ability to now see prices diverging from the target path presents us with some potential new states of a target. In the case of an upside target, if prices fall away or wander sideways from a target path this alerts us to the fact that the prices on their way to the target may be ‘exhausting’. If we fall or wander back below the target activation level, this implies the previous resistance level off the thrust high has not managed to become a new support level for the price. Consequently, we may consider that the target has been ‘de-activated’. If we fall further below the low of the pullback low point, this previous support level also failed to hold and this is providing us with an early warning that the target is quite possibly ‘failing.’ If prices are moving towards the target as expected, we can say the target is ‘in train.’ This is particularly appropriate for multiple targets that run parallel using the first price/time slope prediction method where the targets look like ‘train tracks.’

Improbable Targets
Occasionally an improbable target a long way from the price will be generated. This is particularly true using a log scale projection. Beware of a target that points to a very large change in price. This is especially true of a lone target. It is also quite likely that the unit size has been set too small where a bigger unit size may not produce a target at all.

Longer term charts
Point and figure charts have always meant to be constructed with tick data. The point and figure methodology reduces this down to just the ticks that create a new box on the chart. Long tick data price histories are typically expensive and hard to come by. This can also be an overwhelming amount data to store and analyse, particularly in the case of very liquid instruments such as a major currency pair. For intraday charts, one minute data will normally suffice. But these histories may not be long enough either and it may be necessary to use a 60-minute chart.

It is also possible to construct point and figure charts using high/low data or even open-high-low-close data making some assumptions based on a rising or falling candle, on which came first, the high or the low. The targets will be impacted accordingly.

When it comes to longer term charts such as weekly or monthly charts it is unlikely that these time frames would be used for point and figure charts. The construction method already filters the data. But when it comes to long-term time based charts it becomes necessary to look at weekly or monthly data.

You will also see that long term price upside targets are generated that are not on the daily chart. This is because daily the movements will not provide the same uninterrupted buying thrusts as with the monthly data. The daily pullbacks are effectively ignored when using monthly data. The other advantage is the unit size is now months so we can say that the target slope equates to 1% of price every month for a 1 to 1 slope for example. Using weekly or monthly data to construct the price targets is a significant departure from the traditional point and figure charting method.

Time-Based Charts Are Easier to Understand Than Point and Figure Charts
In recent years, the vast majority of people carrying out technical analysis of charts do not use the point and figure charts. This is partly because very few software systems draw them correctly and do not calculate the price targets. Newcomers to technical analysis find point and figure charts hard to understand.

Combining With Other Techniques
Using point and figure charts has also often meant the need to switch between different chart types for the same instrument. Time-based charts allow for a vast set of technical analysis time-series based techniques to be married with Linton Price Targets. Having different sets of analysis on the same chart can increase the power of the analysis without having to swap between different chart types.


Linton Price Targets builds on the technical analysis body of knowledge developed over the past 100 years by bringing an old, largely lost, technique into the modern age.

The main advantages of Linton Price Targets are:
• The ability to have price targets on time-based charts.
• It is now possible to ascertain when in the future a price target may be met.
• With the passage of time, it becomes clearer if a target track is being followed.
• The targets can be applied to longer-term time-based charts.
• Time-series based analysis techniques can be used on the same chart as the targets.
• The targets are much easier to understand for the newcomer to technical analysis.