BTC Physical Probability

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This indicator analyzes Bitcoin market regimes using a physical cost-based approach, not sentiment or news.

It models BTC as an energy-intensive system, where price behavior is constrained by:

A long-term cost proxy (200-week moving average),

Normalized volatility (stress vs normal conditions),

Drawdown pressure (structural damage).

The script outputs three probability curves:

Downside Probability (red): risk of continued downside due to physical and volatility stress.

Floor / Capitulation Probability (orange): likelihood that price is near a transitional or capitulation zone.

Upside Probability (green): probability of a sustainable upside regime, not a short-term bounce.

A single status label on the right summarizes the current regime:

BUY: upside probability dominates while downside risk is controlled.

SELL: downside probability dominates while upside is weak.

WAIT: no clear edge; transitional or high-noise conditions.

How to use

Best used on 1D or 1W timeframes.

Use BUY / SELL / WAIT as a regime filter, not as exact entries.

WAIT zones are intentionally frequent and represent periods of uncertainty where risk/reward is asymmetric.

Why this model

Bitcoin is not analyzed here as a traditional financial asset, but as a physical system constrained by cost, energy, and volatility.
The goal is to identify high-probability environments, not to predict exact tops or bottoms.

Educational use only.
This indicator does not predict future prices and is not financial advice.