[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Predictive Average

Level: 2


John F. Ehlers introuced Predictive Average in his "Rocket Science for Traders" chapter 20 on 2001.


The concept of taking a difference of lagging line from the original function to produce a leading function suggests extending the concept to moving averages. There is no direct theory for this, but it seems to work pretty well. If taking a 7-bar WMA of prices, that average lags the prices by 2 bars. If taking a 7-bar WMA of the first average, this second average is delayed another 2 bars. If taking the difference between the two averages and add that difference to the first average, the result should be a smoothed line of the original price function with no lag. Sure, Dr . Ehlers tried to use more lag for the second moving average, which
should produce a better predictive curve. However, remember the lesson of Chapter 3 of the book. An analysis curve cannot precede an event. You cannot predict an event before it occurs. If then taking a 4-bar WMA of the smoothed line to create a 1-bar lag, this lagging line becomes a signal when the lines cross. This is as close to an ideal indicator as we can get.

Key Signal

Predict ---> moving average fast line
Trigger ---> moving average slow line

Pros and Cons

100% John F. Ehlers definition translation of original work, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book. If you had read his works, then you will be quite familiar with my code style.


The 17th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.


In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.

The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.

Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.

Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.

Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.

Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.

Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
Sürüm Notları: Correct label bar_index issue
Sürüm Notları: Correct a display error

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