Bitcoin Daily Update (day 238)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Full disclosure: I have been golfing, drinking and smoking all day long

Previous analysis / position: “Watching for a potential bearish hikkake on the 12h and 4h charts. If that happens it would also line up with a breakdown of the 12h cloud.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff Hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,395 | R: $6,415
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to support inside the triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed above (bullish)
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Neutral
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Chop
Volume: Lowest weekly volume in a year
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Daily and weekly doji
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows strong resistance at $6,411 | Still inside 12h cloud
TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 3
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: + / - 0 | 2w: -0.49% | 1m: -4.2%
Bollinger Bands: Two closes above MA, top band right in line with trend line
Trendline: Connect Sept 28th and Oct 8th
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals:Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Hidden bear div’ on the daily

Summary: This chart reminds me a lot of the movie inception. There is a triangle on the daily chart that everyone has been watching for months, but “we need to go deeper!”


Zooming into the 4h chart and we see a descending triangle that started with the high on September 28th, but “we need to go deeper!”


Zooming into the 1h chart and we see a symmetrical triangle that started on October 23rd.


The 1h triangle comes to a head in about 13 hours. I can’t imagine consolidating $6,400 any longer than that. I am just hoping that we don’t drop to $6,150 and then consolidate between there and $6,385 for another two weeks.