Bitcoin Daily Update (day 250)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

250 days of the Daily Update, whooohooo! Thank you to all of the loyal readers who take the time to upvote and leave comments <3


Previous analysis / position: "Now it looks like the bears are taking over and everything I’m looking at points at a reversal within the next two days" / Short ETH:USD from $212.77 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968
Patterns: Retesting bear trendline
Horizontal support and resistance: Weakening S: $6,400 - $6,411 | R: $6,420 - $6,432
BTCUSDSHORTS: Failed to bounce from 9 as was expected
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Close below 3 MA = Short entry triggered
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Price is currently testing for support. Close below would signal adding to position
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Price above but it is still angled down indicating overall bear trend. Close below would signal final entry.
Overall trend: Turning bearish
Volume: Selling volume today outmatched buying volume on breakout, strong bearish indicator
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis:Today fully retraced prior two days
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily held as resistance. 12h closed below cloud signaling short entry
TD’ Sequential: 12h r2 = r1 after g8. Daily price flipped.
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish . Breaking down below $6,154 would be very bearish (hopefully didn’t need VPVR to tell you that)
Price action: 24h: -1.32% | 2w: +0.15% | 1m: -2.92%
Bollinger Bands: Daily tested MA and found support
Trendline: At $6,346
Daily Trend: Bear
Fractals: Quickly retraced below up fractals, down fractal is at $6,216
RSI: Lower low on daily, forming h&s
Stochastic: Daily sell signal. Incoming 4h buy

Summary: The price of Bitcoin is currently at a very crucial crossroads. Can it find support above $6,350 and go on to create a higher high? I remain confident that won’t happen, mainly due to the volume. The buyers were unimpressive on the breakout and the selling volume appears to be overwhelming at these prices.

I am closely watching the low that was established at $6,373 (Bitmex). Breaking down below that area would be a very strong indication of bearish momentum picking up. Support has held strong all year from $6,000 - $6,300. However I do not think there would be nearly as many buyers this time around due to the fake breakout of the bear trendline (if that happens). Furthermore I think there would be many more scared sellers.

The daily candle closed below the 3 MA and that is my first signal to start building a position. The 12h Ichimoku cloud, TD’ Sequential and daily Stochastic provided great confirmation. Next step will be a close below the 8 MA followed by a bearish cross with the 3 MA.

If that all happens then I plan to be in a large short position. On the other hand I will also be very quick to close out if it turns against me. A close back above the 3 MA would signal a full exit and potential long entry (would pass on that one).