Gold > Bitcoin both Fundamental and Technical!!!
Hi all,
I still have a bullish bias on Bitcoin (see my recent publications), but it's clear to me that Wall Street will influence things in favor for Gold much more vs. the Digital Gold Bitcoin. I DO NOT believe Van Eck when he says they had no recent meetings with the SEC since the Government shutdown. I do believe the SEC told them to withdraw their F'ing application for a BTC ETF or they'll just strike it down causing more delays to their hopes in bringing a product like this to market. How does someone like Van Eck explain their HUGE bullish stance only weeks ago on their ETF and then suddenly switch views. Either way this flip flop in behavior is not a great sign for Bitcoin's 2019 fundamental picture in going mainstream. They recognize and Van Eck states in the interview with CNBC that Bitcoin is a competitor to Gold. I'm very skeptical there isn't some backroom shadiness going on and we're not being told the whole story here.
Anyway,
Jan Van Eck the man behind the two main Gold ETFs (GDX, GDXJ) and also the company behind the most promising BTC ETF were on CNBC recently with positive message for Gold and not so much for Bitcoin.
Takeaways from CNBC interview:
-Van Eck expects Gold to outperform the greater market included Bitcoin
-Stated that Gold and Bitcoin are competitors
-Van Eck says Bitcoin prospective investors (based on a poll they conducted) are looking to get more exposure to Gold, not Bitcoin
-The company pulled their ETF application from the SEC mainly due to Government shutdown concerns and needing more evidence that the market is ready for such a product
-Van Eck acknowledges that Bitcoin in 2017 did pull some demand away from Gold that caused it to underperform during a period where the Dollar was underperforming, Brexit and Geo-Political risks throughout the world
-Van Eck says there have been no meetings with SEC recently and that their decision to pull was made as to their expectations of SEC turning down the proposal.
-CNBC correspondants are turning their backs on digital Gold. They specifically said market has lost all liquidity and losing argument to Gold as store of value.
Bitcoin Technical picture:
-Liquidity and volatility is back to November low's (The last time we were near these low's we broke down from 6k to 3k).
-Has fell below the support line of the bear pennant and trading sideways since Dec 14th low. This support line of the bear pennant is now resistance instead of support.
-On the shorter time frames stop hunters are at work on both sides (long wicks taking out stop's from bulls and bears).
-The 200 WMA is at $3,300 and the last support before retesting lows.
-The 200 DMA is at $5,600 (Green MA line). Bitcoin scales above this signals a long term trend direction.
-RSI is currently at 43 showing bears still have a strangle hold on the market. Also confirmed with BTC trading below it's 50 DMA.
-Bitcoin has potential to fall to $2500 range completing same % fall in 2014/2015 recession of 88%.
Gold Technical picture:
-Outperforming Bitcoin on several fronts.
-Gold has scaled above its 200 DMA on December 18th during a time when Bitcoin also jumped but failed to break through key resistance levels.
-There is a large IHS pattern with a target at $1800.
-Gold prices are being squeezed into a tighter range, which under the right fundamental and technical picture will mean a big breakout will occur (bullish bias) in 2019 - 2020 timeframe
-RSI has shown positive divergence since Aug 18' and currently at 63 (bulls are in control of market)
Why to be more bullish on Gold:
-Positive money inflows into this asset vs. Bitcoin that can be measured (less over the counter trading)
-Institutions to retail are much more comfortable and safe with Gold vs. Bitcoin.
-Brexit uncertainty remains
-US/China trade relations are still unknown
-Global growth is expected to be slower in the short to medium term picture
-Global debt is on the rise at around 250T to Global assets at 350T.
-Dollar views are split, but showing no real bullish signs on the technical picture
-FANG stocks are showing more weakness technically, which could hurt Bitcoin as these assets have been much more correlated recently
Best Regards,
Bobby
Don't hate the hair, hate the game
I still have a bullish bias on Bitcoin (see my recent publications), but it's clear to me that Wall Street will influence things in favor for Gold much more vs. the Digital Gold Bitcoin. I DO NOT believe Van Eck when he says they had no recent meetings with the SEC since the Government shutdown. I do believe the SEC told them to withdraw their F'ing application for a BTC ETF or they'll just strike it down causing more delays to their hopes in bringing a product like this to market. How does someone like Van Eck explain their HUGE bullish stance only weeks ago on their ETF and then suddenly switch views. Either way this flip flop in behavior is not a great sign for Bitcoin's 2019 fundamental picture in going mainstream. They recognize and Van Eck states in the interview with CNBC that Bitcoin is a competitor to Gold. I'm very skeptical there isn't some backroom shadiness going on and we're not being told the whole story here.
Anyway,
Jan Van Eck the man behind the two main Gold ETFs (GDX, GDXJ) and also the company behind the most promising BTC ETF were on CNBC recently with positive message for Gold and not so much for Bitcoin.
Takeaways from CNBC interview:
-Van Eck expects Gold to outperform the greater market included Bitcoin
-Stated that Gold and Bitcoin are competitors
-Van Eck says Bitcoin prospective investors (based on a poll they conducted) are looking to get more exposure to Gold, not Bitcoin
-The company pulled their ETF application from the SEC mainly due to Government shutdown concerns and needing more evidence that the market is ready for such a product
-Van Eck acknowledges that Bitcoin in 2017 did pull some demand away from Gold that caused it to underperform during a period where the Dollar was underperforming, Brexit and Geo-Political risks throughout the world
-Van Eck says there have been no meetings with SEC recently and that their decision to pull was made as to their expectations of SEC turning down the proposal.
-CNBC correspondants are turning their backs on digital Gold. They specifically said market has lost all liquidity and losing argument to Gold as store of value.
Bitcoin Technical picture:
-Liquidity and volatility is back to November low's (The last time we were near these low's we broke down from 6k to 3k).
-Has fell below the support line of the bear pennant and trading sideways since Dec 14th low. This support line of the bear pennant is now resistance instead of support.
-On the shorter time frames stop hunters are at work on both sides (long wicks taking out stop's from bulls and bears).
-The 200 WMA is at $3,300 and the last support before retesting lows.
-The 200 DMA is at $5,600 (Green MA line). Bitcoin scales above this signals a long term trend direction.
-RSI is currently at 43 showing bears still have a strangle hold on the market. Also confirmed with BTC trading below it's 50 DMA.
-Bitcoin has potential to fall to $2500 range completing same % fall in 2014/2015 recession of 88%.
Gold Technical picture:
-Outperforming Bitcoin on several fronts.
-Gold has scaled above its 200 DMA on December 18th during a time when Bitcoin also jumped but failed to break through key resistance levels.
-There is a large IHS pattern with a target at $1800.
-Gold prices are being squeezed into a tighter range, which under the right fundamental and technical picture will mean a big breakout will occur (bullish bias) in 2019 - 2020 timeframe
-RSI has shown positive divergence since Aug 18' and currently at 63 (bulls are in control of market)
Why to be more bullish on Gold:
-Positive money inflows into this asset vs. Bitcoin that can be measured (less over the counter trading)
-Institutions to retail are much more comfortable and safe with Gold vs. Bitcoin.
-Brexit uncertainty remains
-US/China trade relations are still unknown
-Global growth is expected to be slower in the short to medium term picture
-Global debt is on the rise at around 250T to Global assets at 350T.
-Dollar views are split, but showing no real bullish signs on the technical picture
-FANG stocks are showing more weakness technically, which could hurt Bitcoin as these assets have been much more correlated recently
Best Regards,
Bobby
Don't hate the hair, hate the game