Possible Scenario for Gold if GDP Surprises to the Upside

30 Nis

First, a warning: This is a hypothetical scenario in which gold has made its final top at 3500, and we explore the possible short-term effects of this outcome.

Today will be a busy day for gold, with both PCE and GDP data scheduled for release. The remainder of the week is also likely to be more volatile than recent days, with earnings reports from MSFT, META, AAPL, and AMZN, as well as a key jobs report on Friday.

Gold reached a top at 3500. Whether this is the final top of the current cycle remains uncertain, it’s notoriously difficult to time tops in a bull market. However, there are some strong signals suggesting gold may be at or near its peak. For more details, please refer to the following post:

Historically, gold tends to form a secondary top slightly below the peak before declining. It often retests (third time but seen as second at monthly chart) the high again, within 36 months before entering a bear cycle. If—and this is a big if—3500 is the top, another attempt toward that level is still possible. But first, today’s data will play a key role.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is projecting below -2.30%, and the gold-adjusted GDPNow is below -1%, indicating weak Q1 expectations. Market consensus has a median forecast of -0.2%, with most estimates ranging between -1% and 0.6%. Much of the expected downside stems from the pre-tariff trade deficit.

If GDP surprises to the upside with slightly positive growth and PCE slows as expected, this could put downward pressure on gold, possibly pushing prices down to the 3145–3170 zone. However, problematic China trade relations, continued war between Ukraine and Russia, and rising tensions along the India-Pakistan border could keep demand for gold elevated. This could lead to a recovery and a second, weaker top near 3450 or maybe even a breakout beyond that level.

Please keep in mind that this is just one potential scenario for gold.

15 May

İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi

The top and bottom may have ended up relatively close together, and the timing wasn’t perfect, but overall, the idea played out quite well. That was the easier part of the gold analysis. From here, things could get more challenging. Now that some of the excess has been priced out, gold bulls may attempt to regain control, and the battle between bulls and bears could become much tougher.