MQP DEMOGRAPHICS THESIS DRAFT 1B
HEADER - This is super detailing for most likely route for spot gold price from 7/26 to 9/11, or next 7 weeks.
SUMMARY - From a due diligence point of view, this is my greatest work ever. By this, I mean next 1200 days of price action, from now to August 2025. You can view long term chart in notes in draft 1A, link below. This is focused specifically on all regressions under 3 years to forecast price in next seven weeks or to 9/13/22.
DETAILS - For background, I've included recent posts since the straddle around 7/08 in the links below.
NOTES -
1. This is my most completed work ever, from a fundamental/technical fusion point of view.
2. The extension lines are regression lines of five different sets of regression layering, combined to forecast price action.
3. The vertical lines are specific dates between now and 9/15.
4. Blue verticals are FOMC dates, July 27th and August 27th. The latter is Jackson Hole on a Saturday.
5. Yellow verticals are new moon and bolder ones full moon.
6. Grays are ADP reports.
7. Blacks are NFP reports.
8. Oranges are CPI reports and reds are PPI reports.
9. If there are Fed minutes days in this timeframe, I did not label them.
10. Blue hi-light forecast has minor adjustments w/ respect to catalysts dates.
11. Price should hit all boxes.
12. Ellipses are entry and exit dates for an almost perfect short situation.
13. Executing with GLD puts on 8/25 with 9/11 exit should be a 12X to 15X trade.
14. Executing with GC futures puts same time frame should be 10:1 trade or better.
15. I last checked and extrapolated GC options pricing 10 days ago, so I adjusted down just in case.
16. This forecast remains valid as long as price does not breach 1765 for more than 12 hours from now to 8/26, exactly 1 month from now.
17. In the situation that price remains above 1765 for more than 12 hours, then this forecast needs reconfirmation.
18. Odds of of this route playing all the way is a bit less than 7 in 10.
19. If FED does not surprise dovishly (in a major way that would produce a reaction to 1790 and higher by 8/4), odds would be 3 in 4.
20. If this chart is true to Friday, 8/26, odds would be almost 4 in 5.
21. If this chart is true THROUGH Sunday 8/28, odds would be 9 in 10.
SUMMARY - From a due diligence point of view, this is my greatest work ever. By this, I mean next 1200 days of price action, from now to August 2025. You can view long term chart in notes in draft 1A, link below. This is focused specifically on all regressions under 3 years to forecast price in next seven weeks or to 9/13/22.
DETAILS - For background, I've included recent posts since the straddle around 7/08 in the links below.
NOTES -
1. This is my most completed work ever, from a fundamental/technical fusion point of view.
2. The extension lines are regression lines of five different sets of regression layering, combined to forecast price action.
3. The vertical lines are specific dates between now and 9/15.
4. Blue verticals are FOMC dates, July 27th and August 27th. The latter is Jackson Hole on a Saturday.
5. Yellow verticals are new moon and bolder ones full moon.
6. Grays are ADP reports.
7. Blacks are NFP reports.
8. Oranges are CPI reports and reds are PPI reports.
9. If there are Fed minutes days in this timeframe, I did not label them.
10. Blue hi-light forecast has minor adjustments w/ respect to catalysts dates.
11. Price should hit all boxes.
12. Ellipses are entry and exit dates for an almost perfect short situation.
13. Executing with GLD puts on 8/25 with 9/11 exit should be a 12X to 15X trade.
14. Executing with GC futures puts same time frame should be 10:1 trade or better.
15. I last checked and extrapolated GC options pricing 10 days ago, so I adjusted down just in case.
16. This forecast remains valid as long as price does not breach 1765 for more than 12 hours from now to 8/26, exactly 1 month from now.
17. In the situation that price remains above 1765 for more than 12 hours, then this forecast needs reconfirmation.
18. Odds of of this route playing all the way is a bit less than 7 in 10.
19. If FED does not surprise dovishly (in a major way that would produce a reaction to 1790 and higher by 8/4), odds would be 3 in 4.
20. If this chart is true to Friday, 8/26, odds would be almost 4 in 5.
21. If this chart is true THROUGH Sunday 8/28, odds would be 9 in 10.
Yorum:
4. There may be a 1C draft update needed before 8/27.
5. That is unlikely at this time.
5. That is unlikely at this time.
Yorum:
NOTES 3 -
1. Fed minutes in August (from July meeting) is not scheduled, at least does not show on Fed calendar yet.
2. Historically it is a Wed that is 3 (or maybe 2?) weeks from FOMC meeting at 2PM ET.
3. So that means that it would be 8/17 (or possibly 8/10) at 2pm ET.
4. We should know this well ahead.
5. You can also check on Monday 8/8 on Marketwatch economics/finance calendar, usually list it at least 10 days in advance.
1. Fed minutes in August (from July meeting) is not scheduled, at least does not show on Fed calendar yet.
2. Historically it is a Wed that is 3 (or maybe 2?) weeks from FOMC meeting at 2PM ET.
3. So that means that it would be 8/17 (or possibly 8/10) at 2pm ET.
4. We should know this well ahead.
5. You can also check on Monday 8/8 on Marketwatch economics/finance calendar, usually list it at least 10 days in advance.
Yorum:
NOTES 4 - repost, previously posted wrong chart
1. Please view this first:
1. Please view this first:
Yorum:
2. Fractals search for realistic bull reversal now look like that.
3. First, there needs to be a run to 1790-1800-ish straight to 8/11.
4. Second, new low in following week to 1670-ish.
5. Slow sideways to up to 1920-1950 by end of year.
3. First, there needs to be a run to 1790-1800-ish straight to 8/11.
4. Second, new low in following week to 1670-ish.
5. Slow sideways to up to 1920-1950 by end of year.
Yorum:
NOTES 5 - 12:26 AM ET THURSDAY 7/28
1. No surprises from Jerome Powell today.
2. Reaction post FOMC was move to 1740 and stall.
3. No changes to odds and expectations at this time.
4. After new moon, it's ADP next Wednesday and NFP next Friday, 8/5.
'5. We should hit 1765-1780 before moving to second box.
1. No surprises from Jerome Powell today.
2. Reaction post FOMC was move to 1740 and stall.
3. No changes to odds and expectations at this time.
4. After new moon, it's ADP next Wednesday and NFP next Friday, 8/5.
'5. We should hit 1765-1780 before moving to second box.
Yorum:
NOTES 6 - 11:05 AM ET FRIDAY 7/29
1. Pushing 1770 earlier today.
2. As stated in notes way above, if it stays above 1765 for more than 12 hours, then this route needs reconfirmation.
3. I didn't put the first box higher bc I did not and still don't expect prices above 1765 to be sustainable from post FOMC to pre NFP (Wed afternoon to next Friday morning).
4. So we are in the gray area right now as I type this.
5. The price action from now to NFP matters a great deal.
6. I may add some notes prior to next Friday.
1. Pushing 1770 earlier today.
2. As stated in notes way above, if it stays above 1765 for more than 12 hours, then this route needs reconfirmation.
3. I didn't put the first box higher bc I did not and still don't expect prices above 1765 to be sustainable from post FOMC to pre NFP (Wed afternoon to next Friday morning).
4. So we are in the gray area right now as I type this.
5. The price action from now to NFP matters a great deal.
6. I may add some notes prior to next Friday.
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Benzer Fikirler
1. This is my absolute final attempt to make this dream reality.
2. I have now until End of May 2023 to deliver 3 legit (consecutive) forecasts to some important people that can open doors to next level development.
3. We are on forecast 1 draft B, hence 1B.