The inescapable embargo; the coming bicycle world

What a time... It wasn't long ago that we could see a price war between Saudi and Russia, resulting in oil prices below $10 per barrel. Today, at least a partial – though the EU assumes a 90% opt-out by the end of 2022 – embargo on Russian oil is imminent.

Europe stands on the fragile ground of high inflation; the end of zero interest rates; stunted economic growth; war in Ukraine.
Recession is beginning to knock on the door, and a "soft landing" seems like a pipe dream to political and economic theorists. The higher price of oil only adds fuel to an already big fire.

Where do I see the price stopping?

Currently, there is nothing preventing the price from continuing the trend from a technical point of view. In April, the correction was completed, which was apparently accepted – the price is above all ichimoku lines on D1, W1 and MN1 intervals.

The biggest corrections allow me to determine the ranges that can be seen in the graphic above; the first (red) and second range (blue) have already been touched, when they are broken through, the first strongest level is at the price around $150. Additionally, this is the ATH point on oil, so you can expect at least a temporary stop.
The next stopping area is the $160-170 range.

Personally, I am waiting for a correction on D1 to the KIJUN line. If this does not happen, I will look for positions on lower intervals (H1/H4) with a wide SL.

What about after the oil price reaches its maximums?

When:

• the dust of war settles;
  
• the EU and the US settle their monetary policy;
  
• exporters agree on extraction;
  
• and demand is reduced or supply is increased,
  

then the price of oil will begin to slow and fall.

I believe that in a few years, maybe a dozen months, the price of oil will again be in the $100 to $70 range.

P.S.
If the price does not break through the current peak and news comes in that EU countries are crumbling from sanctions resolutions, oil embargoes; the war in Ukraine is over in the next several weeks or so, the price will most likely be at $70. Along with this, the price will break through the support on D1, which will give a sell signal.

"May you live in interesting times"; I wish you peaceful and safe times.