Crude Oil Forecast: How deep Oil Prices may fall?
The shortened version of our Crude Oil Forecast:
We have started to sell Crude Oil at 65 $ and reached our target at 52.80 $.
What is next?
What were the reasons for the sell-off? What is driving the market?
1. The supply and demand balance strongly indicates that oversupply will last for some time to come.
2. Global Growth concerns. I have mentioned several times that WTO and IMF reduced their global growth projections. Parallel to this, both IEA, WTO and OPEC lowered their global oil demand estimates.
3. Trade Wars.
4. OPEC+ supply cut, Venezuela and Iran Sanctions did not help Crude Oil prices to enter into a bullish market. ( Closing above 68 $ ). Note the sanction waivers. Now Crude Oil prices have reached a critical level. We have to scenarios ahead. OPEC is to maintain cuts or face a world of much lower crude prices ( Then comes a war between OPEC and US Drilling Companies with 42 $ production cost).OPEC postponed their meeting for the supply decision. OPEC may wait for “right on time” action. ( 40 $ – 45 $ per barrel )
5.Brent/ WTI spread may widen intermediate term.
As I have been writing for three months, Crude oil is fundamentally and technically bearish. Supply is surpassing demand and stocks are rising at a time when they should be falling.
Please pay attention to The US Commodity Index. The double top pattern’s completed and the pattern suggests further fall.
Daily Chart:
Potential Golden Cut of MAs indicates a bearish move intermediate term.
A Bullish Bat Pattern and oversold RSI indicate a technical correction towards 57 $ near term. Potential pullbacks can be used as a selling opportunity.
On the downside 51.50 ( Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest bullish move ) and 50.00 $ (psychological level) will be our main focus.
On the upside, 56.25, 58.10 are the potential pullback levels to be used for selling opportunity.
Intraday trade opportunity will be published later for the members.
We have started to sell Crude Oil at 65 $ and reached our target at 52.80 $.
What is next?
What were the reasons for the sell-off? What is driving the market?
1. The supply and demand balance strongly indicates that oversupply will last for some time to come.
2. Global Growth concerns. I have mentioned several times that WTO and IMF reduced their global growth projections. Parallel to this, both IEA, WTO and OPEC lowered their global oil demand estimates.
3. Trade Wars.
4. OPEC+ supply cut, Venezuela and Iran Sanctions did not help Crude Oil prices to enter into a bullish market. ( Closing above 68 $ ). Note the sanction waivers. Now Crude Oil prices have reached a critical level. We have to scenarios ahead. OPEC is to maintain cuts or face a world of much lower crude prices ( Then comes a war between OPEC and US Drilling Companies with 42 $ production cost).OPEC postponed their meeting for the supply decision. OPEC may wait for “right on time” action. ( 40 $ – 45 $ per barrel )
5.Brent/ WTI spread may widen intermediate term.
As I have been writing for three months, Crude oil is fundamentally and technically bearish. Supply is surpassing demand and stocks are rising at a time when they should be falling.
Please pay attention to The US Commodity Index. The double top pattern’s completed and the pattern suggests further fall.
Daily Chart:
Potential Golden Cut of MAs indicates a bearish move intermediate term.
A Bullish Bat Pattern and oversold RSI indicate a technical correction towards 57 $ near term. Potential pullbacks can be used as a selling opportunity.
On the downside 51.50 ( Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest bullish move ) and 50.00 $ (psychological level) will be our main focus.
On the upside, 56.25, 58.10 are the potential pullback levels to be used for selling opportunity.
Intraday trade opportunity will be published later for the members.
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