The COT report this week from the CME showed that Long USDJPY positions have actually gone up for the past 4 consecutive weeks. In those weeks UJ has been trading higher than the current price - substantially higher for the last 2 weeks. What does that mean? There are lots and lots of people with long positions in draw down... They are trapped and many have probably been averaging their positions somewhere in the highs 111s. The break of 111.5 is significant. We are very close to a sharp down move because any small down move now can get amplified by the positioning situation described above.