USDJPY Channel

On the 4hr, UJ is on a downtrend, based on the larger channel, but on the 1hr, UJ has been respecting an uptrending channel. If UJ reaches the bottom of the small channel, i see either of 2 scenarios:
1. UJ goes back to the top of the bigger and smaller channel
2. UJ breaks the bottom of the small channel and reaches the bottom of the big channel

Note
A confirmation of either of the 2 scenarios is when price makes HH, HL to signal an uptrend or LH, LL to signal a downtrend