Macro - Global Inflation Expectations Rolling Over
Güncellendi
Speculation for Macro:
These are the underlying conditions:
- Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value?
- Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over results) misses expectations vs. the underlying conditions, what can you really do?
- AMZN missing expectations is a hint. Bonds and currencies lie less than stocks. Stocks are the last to get the message.
AMZN - This is a pattern prevalent globally right now. Look how it resolved in HSI, and now AMZN:
- Druckenmiller says that funds position for 18 months in advance. The sell-off in tech and lack of interest is a huge tell. In decelerating markets, sector losers will be sold off heavily.
- If you cant stimulate earnings & job growth by dumping money into stock buybacks, then you have failed. You will have price inflation ONLY, but it is not creating GDP growth nor lasting means to do so. Only raising DEBT, and then when you take away QE/negative rates you are left with nothing but high prices, and a big asset bubble. Now, we are to assume that investors will keep bidding up assets that are expected to depreciate in value? No they will just sell, and money managers see what is coming just from AMZN + GDP missing expectations.
- When you only have price inflation, but the population not accumulating capital, it will lead to consumers being priced out of discretionaries and demand will decrease. You will revert society back to demanding bare necessities, rather than creating innovation.
- You can keep pouring in money through QE, but rates cant go more negative... CBs will just eventually hold all of their own negative yielding debt and keep printing money when nobody is actually giving you money for the debt? How does it create GDP growth when the money they print is depreciating in value vs. existing debt which needs to eventually be financed?
- Debt is the deflationary force that money printing is fighting against. They need the economy such that it can eat away the debt without them pouring money into it, but if companies fail to produce increasing revenue while debt is increasing, they have failed.
- Then for the next crisis, your are left with no options except to lie down and take it.
- Institutional money will begin to sell off as they realize what is happening and data factors begin to confirm this trend.
Global Liquidity Providers with a red flag:
Softbank:
Evergrande:
Bitcoin/Blackrock - US equities have yet to factor in the selloff in Bitcoin (Bitcoin is the US liquidity provider/Shadow Bank IMO):
- What is the Trigger to actually sell the US equities though? How to action this global shift? Its very tricky obviously, but I am looking at the leaders (FAANG) which have upheld the bull run up till now as hard supports vs. the weakening market breadth. That's why AMZN is an important cue for me.
- Asia is the key. As we know, China is attempting to pop their asset bubble, and it is creating a deflationary wave which has reached HK and now Japan. It will spillover to EU and US without question.
- You can see the COVID and other fears being set up to be blamed as a 'catalyst' to blame, rather than CB's blatant failure to navigate the crisis.
- Of course, stocks aren't the economy... but when smart money realizes that revenue will decline, and no value will be created for them, of course they will sell. i.e. Its going to translate to revenue, innovation, dividends and stock buybacks.
I expect a correction at the very least in the near future in US equities, and a big one in the mid-long term. All I can do is short the setups and prepare for the big one.
But where will investors put their money then?
- Dollars, housing and bonds from the looks of it. Anything to escape the tail risk in equities. Even the junkiest of yields are below inflation as investors seek yield.
- It is a bit sinister, because the Fed is buying bonds and MBS's, and eventually it will be returned in theory. So they retain the ability to strike down the havens.
When new instruments which are riskier and riskier are created so that investors can obtain yield and institutions can sell their risk to them, it piles on more risk into the system, such that the threshold for a tail event is lowered. That is probably where the liquidity eventually flows to.
Just because there is an immense amount of money in the system doesn't mean investors won't sell that risk. When everyone is risk-on, wouldn't it create more yield to just flush risk assets first and then buy the dip?
The great Black Swan here is that inflation is indeed transitory. It would mean that even QE Infinity and negative rates cannot stimulate the economy.
How it Unfolds:
- While M Money Stock has increased, it has done little to reduce debt vs. money, nor increased GDP (growth YoY).
- The Credit Cycle is the beginning of liquidity flows. The global credit impulse is negative, meaning new inflationary credit is not created, and eventually, debt will be called instead. Inflation will be destroyed. Debt is at an all time high.
- For debt to be serviced, those institutions which have sold debt must now pull liquidity from assets in order to service the debt. While the assets have appreciated in monetary value, they have depreciated vs. debt, meaning that they will need to return more M Money than they borrowed. This means that at the end of it, there will be a money SHORTAGE!
GLHF
- DPT
These are the underlying conditions:
- Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value?
- Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over results) misses expectations vs. the underlying conditions, what can you really do?
- AMZN missing expectations is a hint. Bonds and currencies lie less than stocks. Stocks are the last to get the message.
AMZN - This is a pattern prevalent globally right now. Look how it resolved in HSI, and now AMZN:
- Druckenmiller says that funds position for 18 months in advance. The sell-off in tech and lack of interest is a huge tell. In decelerating markets, sector losers will be sold off heavily.
- If you cant stimulate earnings & job growth by dumping money into stock buybacks, then you have failed. You will have price inflation ONLY, but it is not creating GDP growth nor lasting means to do so. Only raising DEBT, and then when you take away QE/negative rates you are left with nothing but high prices, and a big asset bubble. Now, we are to assume that investors will keep bidding up assets that are expected to depreciate in value? No they will just sell, and money managers see what is coming just from AMZN + GDP missing expectations.
- When you only have price inflation, but the population not accumulating capital, it will lead to consumers being priced out of discretionaries and demand will decrease. You will revert society back to demanding bare necessities, rather than creating innovation.
- You can keep pouring in money through QE, but rates cant go more negative... CBs will just eventually hold all of their own negative yielding debt and keep printing money when nobody is actually giving you money for the debt? How does it create GDP growth when the money they print is depreciating in value vs. existing debt which needs to eventually be financed?
- Debt is the deflationary force that money printing is fighting against. They need the economy such that it can eat away the debt without them pouring money into it, but if companies fail to produce increasing revenue while debt is increasing, they have failed.
- Then for the next crisis, your are left with no options except to lie down and take it.
- Institutional money will begin to sell off as they realize what is happening and data factors begin to confirm this trend.
Global Liquidity Providers with a red flag:
Softbank:
Evergrande:
Bitcoin/Blackrock - US equities have yet to factor in the selloff in Bitcoin (Bitcoin is the US liquidity provider/Shadow Bank IMO):
- What is the Trigger to actually sell the US equities though? How to action this global shift? Its very tricky obviously, but I am looking at the leaders (FAANG) which have upheld the bull run up till now as hard supports vs. the weakening market breadth. That's why AMZN is an important cue for me.
- Asia is the key. As we know, China is attempting to pop their asset bubble, and it is creating a deflationary wave which has reached HK and now Japan. It will spillover to EU and US without question.
- You can see the COVID and other fears being set up to be blamed as a 'catalyst' to blame, rather than CB's blatant failure to navigate the crisis.
- Of course, stocks aren't the economy... but when smart money realizes that revenue will decline, and no value will be created for them, of course they will sell. i.e. Its going to translate to revenue, innovation, dividends and stock buybacks.
I expect a correction at the very least in the near future in US equities, and a big one in the mid-long term. All I can do is short the setups and prepare for the big one.
But where will investors put their money then?
- Dollars, housing and bonds from the looks of it. Anything to escape the tail risk in equities. Even the junkiest of yields are below inflation as investors seek yield.
- It is a bit sinister, because the Fed is buying bonds and MBS's, and eventually it will be returned in theory. So they retain the ability to strike down the havens.
When new instruments which are riskier and riskier are created so that investors can obtain yield and institutions can sell their risk to them, it piles on more risk into the system, such that the threshold for a tail event is lowered. That is probably where the liquidity eventually flows to.
Just because there is an immense amount of money in the system doesn't mean investors won't sell that risk. When everyone is risk-on, wouldn't it create more yield to just flush risk assets first and then buy the dip?
The great Black Swan here is that inflation is indeed transitory. It would mean that even QE Infinity and negative rates cannot stimulate the economy.
How it Unfolds:
- While M Money Stock has increased, it has done little to reduce debt vs. money, nor increased GDP (growth YoY).
- The Credit Cycle is the beginning of liquidity flows. The global credit impulse is negative, meaning new inflationary credit is not created, and eventually, debt will be called instead. Inflation will be destroyed. Debt is at an all time high.
- For debt to be serviced, those institutions which have sold debt must now pull liquidity from assets in order to service the debt. While the assets have appreciated in monetary value, they have depreciated vs. debt, meaning that they will need to return more M Money than they borrowed. This means that at the end of it, there will be a money SHORTAGE!
GLHF
- DPT
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Of course, debtors can just default, but if the US does this they will likely lose Reserve status. It seems very likely IMO. Not the end of the world, but will be like a Japan or Europe.Devaluation of USD > IMF SDR/CBDC paired Reserve currency.
IMO, It will be long term, but there will be a shift to Asia as defensives for international investors and Africa as next EM.
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US 10Y TIP reaches record low.GPIF (world's largest pension fund) cuts US Bond weight by 12%:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-01/world-s-biggest-pension-fund-cuts-u-s-bond-weighting-by-record
Yes pension funds are moving out of US.
Entire German bond yield curve is now negative.
China PMI Manufacturing and New export orders slowing. Where China goes, US follows. Global demand is falling.
Stocks are not the economy, but stocks are an expression of inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are going down. Therefore stocks will go down.
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US10Y forecast: 
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Container shipping costs from China are skyrocketing. container-news.com/scfi/
If it's impossible to ship materials from China, profit margins will be negatively impacted.
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And now Japan 10Y below 0 for first time this year: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/japan-10-year-bond-yield-falls-to-zero-for-first-time-this-year?sref=frV97TwVİşlem aktif
In my humble opinion, Nikkei and DAX are they weathervanes of the world:My observation is that Chinese Credit Impulse leads the global economy, lags 6-7 months after the Chinese economy, then yields respond to CCI immediately. So yields are an indicator of CCI.
The mechanism and liquidity flow is IMO:
Chinese economy > CCI > CN30Y > Eurodollars > Japan/Germany > US. There is currently a discrepancy:
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CN50 vs SP: İşlem aktif
At last, the TRIGGER has been decoded:CN economy > CCI > CN30Y > **CNYUSD** > Eurodollars > Global equities.
IMO Higher Yuan to USD means more share of business for US allies, but at the same time, if CN economy falls, the CCI will fall, causing global economy to fall. (speculation, more investigation needed for CNYUSD correlation)
CNYUSD is at top of range and rolling over.
Furthermore, check out the behavior of CNYUSD and Eurodollars right before the crash of 2020 and now - they are the same:
In this situation, a rapid uptick then reversal in CN yields would be the trigger of the day of the crash:
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One thing which brought to my attention the CNYUSD correlation is the US China Phase 1 trade deal, which expires in Jan 2022:reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF
This may indeed be the true Black Swan, should China withdraw from the trade deal.
This post goes into more detail:
IMO we are close to the Grand Slam.
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1/DXY similar conditions to 2020 before the crash:İşlem aktif
Overseas housing market the next leg to fall. Evergrande is the Lehman of the next crash:İşlem aktif
Also look at Gold/Crude behavior leading to 2020 crash:- runs up, distribution pattern
- failed cup and handle
- capitulate
- stocks follow
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Reliable signal for market reversals:İşlem aktif
Also looking for a gap down through 20DMA as yields reverses after a quick spike (like now). Looks eerily similar:İşlem aktif
and now, the TRIGGER has flashed. This is where I go short: İşlem aktif
VIX and UVXY selling off rapidly, as SRVIX, PCSPX shoot up. Good chance of turn 8/13 or 8/16:İşlem aktif
I dare say that the party is over.Fed Balance sheet Liabilities on the Treasury General Account has now returned to pre-COVID levels.
Private Margin debt rolling over.
over night RRP maintaining over 1T.
Indices still grinding up from gamma and vol shorting, yet barely squeezing up for each point of VIX / VX.
Some funny stats are Nasdaq lows at S&P ATH going back 30 years and UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell 13.5% MoM, with only 6 larger losses in this century (COVID economic shutdown and Great Recession GFC)
Judging from trend in yields, SRVIX and LIBOR tail risk big bets, it looks like a taper announcement is coming this year (They are already tapering via RRP, just haven't outright announced they are). MBS is the most likely target. However, It is a policy error to taper into economic slowdown, so it will quickly be reversed after the equity bubble is popped and we will have the next round of QE. Rates will go even lower, and IMO they will go negative within a few years.
You don't just fix exponential debt and magically "recover" with some money printing and a couple stimulus bills while debt is greater than gdp and debt to M stock (collateral)
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AUDJPY, an inflationary pair with a bearish 'M':İşlem aktif
The TRIGGER proved to be ACCURATE.Now CN yields:
Let us see if continuation.
I suspect "The Big One" will begin with a gapdown overnight through the 50 DMA on SPX:
Yields, DXY and VIX are moving with positive correlation today, which occurred before the Volmageddon in 2020.
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Interesting stat:"With the index down less than 1% as of yesterday 10% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 20% and 34.5% are off by 10%." - Andrew Thrasher
Selectivity (Breadth) at Major Market Tops by Paul Desmond IFTA presentation:
Top Day on Average: % Stocks @ New Highs: 5.98%, % at or <2% of New Highs: 16.88%, % Off 20% Or More: 21.97%, % Off 30% Or More: 10.54%
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BlackRock has sold 90% of their 
SPY position.Barclays - 27%
Morgan Stanley - 37%,
JP Morgan - 4.55%,
Goldman - 4.85%.
Bridgewater - 37%.
Everyone knows what's coming...
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M2 YoY % change has rolled over. This is a more relevant measure of liquidity than M2 stock, as reserves do not enter the economy but there is inflationary credit created based off of it.In order to have inflation and assets bid up, credit and M2 YoY % must be increasing, which is not the case.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=248494
The Fed balance sheet is a small small drop in the pool of global liquidity, and while tapering would be a nice headline, it's not necessary for the bubble to pop.
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So the underlying fundamentals which lead to this bubble have now faded.Each time the S&P gains 100% since 08, it has had a large correction, signaled by a drop in yields.
"It's a new paradigm".
"This time it's different!"
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Another is that in 30 years of monetary policy (1999-2000, 2008), each time excessive M3 creation occurred, it was followed by a great collapse. 2020's M3 creation eclipses the previous spikes.İşlem aktif
There are no bears left.Median S&P 500 stock short interest as % of market cap has reached 1.5%, the same as the height of the dotcom bubble in 2000.
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Buffet Indicator: Composite Market Value to GDP:
233% ratio of Market Value to GDP, 87% higher than long-term trendline, which and a historical exponential trendline which suggests a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued.
currentmarketvaluation.com/
There's a million reasons for the market to go down, and it is only a matter of when, not if, but still the options rule the shorter time frame.
We must wait and see if the short term Trigger was correct.
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Spread between High yield and Treasury bonds is a similar representation of economic health, like the yield curve:Again, similar conditions to before the 2020 correction.
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if crude is a headfake and continues lower it would be further confirmation. DXY actually sold off with the equities and US10Y also the same.As we know, Lumber has already crashed and DJT is showing divergences not confirming the ATHs, and we are at the +100% earnings resistance
Taking a look at this, it does seem like another Trigger is DXY reversing and selling off, as the very day it did that stocks crashed. Seems possible at this moment.
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Timeline of Risk-off beneath the index:İşlem aktif
Jackson Hole proved to be just a manufactured FUD to squeeze out a relief rally, as expected.The global macro is certainly weighing down on risk and I am certain about the direction, but at the end of the day, it's the monetary policy and options market which will dominate the short term timing.
US Black Monday Oct 1987. On May 1989, Japan began monetary tightening.
Japan's bubble economy shrugged off both the US crash and 3 rounds of tightening before crashing. This is a cruel reality that bears must keep in mind:
However, I think now US is the Japan to China's US. It's been some time since the bear market in China:
Now with China's easing, along with US tightening, CNYUSD should reverse and be conducive to a trend reversal in equities:
Everything is there. However, we must accept that a bitter, but valuable pill to swallow may be to short this momentum on the way down, rather than timing this top.
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After the Jackson Hole non-event, back to the regular program of indices floating up on gamma squeezes, while market breadth, yields, eurodollar, oil and gold continue to bleed.US Aug Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 9.0 from 27.3. Likely will continue to see fading economic data.
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Zoom was an early leader of the QE bubble. Observe how TSLA followed its movement with about 2-3 months lag.This would mean that TSLA will follow ZM's local top and drop at about the end of September, but I'd expect it to be sooner as people catch on to the correlation, and as the global trend of slowing growth manifests in analyst expectations:
AMZN lead even ZM.
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Slowing growth is already signaled by bonds, currencies, and economic data, but will now begin to be priced into equities through forward estimatesİşlem aktif
As yields and currencies foretold months ago, IEA and OPEC+ now see oil flipping from a deficit to a surplus in 2022.ADP private sector US jobs at 374k versus 625k expected and 330k prior. 2 misses in a row. Again, decelerating growth was already known long before the analysts.
9/15 VixEx
9/17 Quad Witching
9/22 FOMC
Short vol supply may not show up quickly enough due to FOMC to catch the expected 50 DMA test on SPX.
This is the window of weakness I am targeting, and hopefully we get deleveraging into this period.
I'm convinced of the directionality, but if that window closes, it would be best to wait for the next opportunity.
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We have some extremely fragile market conditions, and are most ready for the grand slam trade:According to Squeezemetrics, we are close to some of the most consistently bearish and volatile behavior in the S&P 500. The current combination of weak put flows and large customer vanna exposure are fragile.
As VGR approaches zero, SPX option customers are very exposed to changes in volatility—and as a result, it becomes more likely for sudden increases in volatility to occur. Right now, VGR is around -3.00. That's a lot of vanna.
We also need to know if folks are currently hedging against vol. I.e., are people buying puts right now or not? And that's a question for Net Put Delta (NPD).
NPD appears to be around -5, and approaching 0 will likely create a self-fulfilling prophecy of a volatility event.
- Source: Squeezemetrics
We have a combination of fading inflationary indicators, as described in this idea, fading economic data which is catching analysts by surprise, a couple catalysts on the horizon, being:
- Debt ceiling a la 2011, which McConnell and GOP members have vowed to vote against.
- Deflationary wave from China, since 08 US markets have always followed China in crises and there is a huge divergence now. It will be different this time.
- Monetary policy, where tightening signals are being given into a slowing economy.
Is it really going to be that simple? Sell before OpEx then buy at 50 DMA?
I noticed that on Feb 24, 2020, VIX flipped into backwardation when SPX 50 DMA support broke, and that was the ideal entry for UVXY if you wanted to be sure. This time won't be different:
It will most likely be an overnight gap down through 50 DMA that seals the deal like last time and VIX backwardation. It was (after) OpEx as well. Until then, you can be bold and position in advance, but save firepower for that event. There's a window this month, but it also may not be so.
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Economic data is consistently weaker than expected and COVID deaths are rising, it doesnt just go away if you pretend it doesnt exist.İşlem aktif
Sept 21 Mabon is a good dateİşlem aktif
It would mean that its likely Sept 21-22 FOMC would announce some form of tightening.İşlem aktif
Also keeping tabs on the Big Tech antitrust with FTC Lina Khan + DOJ.Dotcom bubble's catalyst was the Microsoft antitrust case and breakup.
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U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE BY 235,000 IN AUGUST; EST. 750,000, prev. 1053000.Huge miss. Who could have seen that?
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It's been obvious for a while as described here, but something is clearly very very broken.NY Fed Suspends Its GDP Tracking Model as Economic Growth:
zerohedge.com/markets/wheels-come-economic-growth-craters-ny-fed-suspends-its-gdp-tracking-model
Meanwhile, China will replace COMEX as the world’s commodities futures hub. We will be trading with e-CNY, the Chinese CBDC.
reuters.com/world/china/china-launch-more-futures-contracts-increase-foreign-investors-trading-cabinet-2021-09-03/
Optimists argue that if the economy crashes the Fed will just buy stocks directly... but isn't that effectively what is already happening, comparing the SPX to the Fed balance sheet?
US following Japan's playbook in the 80s and 90s. I wonder if the result will be different.
Japan's PM Suga announced his resignation today by the way, to take the fall for BOJ Kuroda's handling of the pandemic recovery, taking on even more debt than even the US or EU.
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NPD has flipped negative, translating to customers not hedging in puts.VGR is already negative, translating to customers being highly exposed to volatility.
DIX is low, translating to dark pool bearishness.
Source: Squeezemetrics
As we know, Median S&P 500 stock short interest as % of market cap has reached 1.5%, the same as the height of the dotcom bubble in 2000. Nobody is short.
Technically, we are at topping levels for all the indices as well.
Foresee a drop into mid September, as previously described, and starting even earlier than usual as the pattern has become blatantly obvious - perhaps even the coming week.
If it bounces once more from 50 DMA, we would have to revise our baseline to stagflation.
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Relevant economic data - ISM Manufacturing Index, which historically leads high beta/low beta (and Russell vs. Consumer Staples) may have peaked, creating some divergence with IWM, high beta:Not
Conditions changing to our favor:ECB 'not tapering' (they are tapering), while EU markets touch the support early, and lead in weakness:
marketwatch.com/story/european-central-bank-to-slow-pace-of-emergency-asset-purchases-11631190457
Bounce or die:
China selling oil reserves:
coppernews.io/2021/09/09/china-sells-oil-reserves-to-lower-prices-in-unprecedented-move/
The news does indeed follow the price, but the timing is just right, as crude is at a 40 year downtrend resistance, and ready for a bust:
Yields also at a critical area:
EU junk bond real rates turn negative for the first time. Investors are betting on zero defaults in the best case scenario, while supply chain disruptions continue and container rates continue to skyrocket. Investors betting on no businesses failing again, no matter how junky, as 100s million Evergrande + real estate groups collapse in China.
Not
FED'S KAPLAN TO SELL ALL HIS PERSONAL STOCK HOLDINGS BY SEPT 30 -CNBCWhat masterful timing! A true market whiz. How could he have predicted Fed's asset purchase tapering???
Not
Supply chain issues can be seen from Shipping Container rates from China to US, which isn't shown on TV, but DJT does reflect it.DJT working its way towards a death cross on the 200 DMA:
Dow Theory:
"The market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (i.e. industrials or transportation) advances above a previous important high and is accompanied or followed by a similar advance in the other average."
Industrials or Transportation aren't the biggest market components anymore, rather Fed asset purchases, options, tech, but they are the heart of the economy. Tech, innovation, growth, can only occur if you have the manufacturing to be able to drive it.
Not
I argue that price and consumer inflation do not influence equities as much as the dollar. Investors who are going all in stocks because of the inflationary narrative will be in for a shock. Economic slowdown and rising dollar will prove a stronger force.Not
*U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION RISES +0.3% IN AUGUST; EST. +0.4%*U.S. CORE CPI RISES +0.1% IN AUGUST; EST. +0.3%
US inflation is proving to be a global outlier. This strengthens our view.
Energy seems to be what is holding the inflation narrative together.
Not
Iron ore does a lumber as China's Industrial Production of Crude Steel YoY hits levels not seen since the global financial crisis:China manufactures 57% of the world's steel, and shrinking steel output is indicative of declining growth globally.
Not
It was worth it. Just the beginning?Not
"There are now 72 container ships at anchor waiting to unload at the port of LA-Long Beach. Carriers are cancelling upcoming sailings to allow the backlog to clear. Of course, that just means goods will pile up on loading docks at origin."Ships that are stuck in transit will inevitably reach shore. What do you think will happen when they do?
Bye bye "inflation"!
Not
The bullwhip effect was named by analogy with the way in which the amplitude of a whip increases down its length; the further from the originating signal, the greater the distortion of the wave pattern. In a similar manner, forecast accuracy decreases as one moves upstream along the supply chain. For example, many consumer goods have fairly consistent consumption at retail, but this signal becomes more chaotic and unpredictable as the focus moves away from consumer purchasing behavior. - Wikipedia'Forecast accuracy decreases'. Just understand that there is no inflation, but deflation, no matter what the media says.
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