If the US Treasury Spread Yield between 10 Year and 2 Year turns negative, SPX will fall AFTER the spread move to positive territory.
The spread is about to turn negative since the 10 year yield is about to break Resistance (from highest since Oct'18. The yield ended its Downtrend since middle of 2021. It's about to confirm Uptrend by breaking out Resistance at ~3%.
Once the yield confirm the Uptrend, I believe the spread will move into negative territory hence activating a Recession alert.
The spread is about to turn negative since the 10 year yield is about to break Resistance (from highest since Oct'18. The yield ended its Downtrend since middle of 2021. It's about to confirm Uptrend by breaking out Resistance at ~3%.
Once the yield confirm the Uptrend, I believe the spread will move into negative territory hence activating a Recession alert.