My previous idea had been calling for a long. However, in recent days I have been closely monitoring the market and getting the feel of it. Somehow, it doesn't feel right. There are a few reasons:
On the fundamental side:
1. Record earnings from companies and yet their share prices fell, especially in the tech sector.
2. Record numbers of retails have been flooding into the market, including gamers, celebrities, etc. In short, people who have no business in the financial markets.
3. A variant of the Covid that is very contagious and causing multiple economies to go into lock-down (they may not phrase it so).
4. An over-extended run on the market.
5. Other markets that are not as active in QE as US has already fell long ago.
On Elliott Waves side:
1. I had never like my previous counts. But they seemed reasonable. In fact, in the run since Mar 2020, there are too many possible counts available that don't break the Elliott Wave rules. However, I do have a preference on how waves 3,4, and 5 behaves. And in this count, they not only conform to the EW rules, they conform to my preference on the structure of the waves (as is also in the guidelines of EW principles).
2. There are still some flaws in this counts that I don't like, especially when they don't conform to Fibonacci extension levels (not shown in the chart so as to keep it clean), or when wave 3 forms in jagged ways. For Elliott Wavers, they will be able to spot what I meant in my counts. But the important thing is to all traders and Elliott Wavers here is not whether the counts are correct, nor whether they formed in the nicely... EW is a tool that gives us another set of glasses to look at the market and allows us to create an incredibly good risk-reward trade in the market. There are subjectivity involved here, and we could be wrong a lot, but we always have our alternate counts on hand so that we do not blindly stick to a trade when it goes against us.
So here is it... I am calling for a crash in S&P (and the US market in general) and a spike in volatility.
Good luck!
On the fundamental side:
1. Record earnings from companies and yet their share prices fell, especially in the tech sector.
2. Record numbers of retails have been flooding into the market, including gamers, celebrities, etc. In short, people who have no business in the financial markets.
3. A variant of the Covid that is very contagious and causing multiple economies to go into lock-down (they may not phrase it so).
4. An over-extended run on the market.
5. Other markets that are not as active in QE as US has already fell long ago.
On Elliott Waves side:
1. I had never like my previous counts. But they seemed reasonable. In fact, in the run since Mar 2020, there are too many possible counts available that don't break the Elliott Wave rules. However, I do have a preference on how waves 3,4, and 5 behaves. And in this count, they not only conform to the EW rules, they conform to my preference on the structure of the waves (as is also in the guidelines of EW principles).
2. There are still some flaws in this counts that I don't like, especially when they don't conform to Fibonacci extension levels (not shown in the chart so as to keep it clean), or when wave 3 forms in jagged ways. For Elliott Wavers, they will be able to spot what I meant in my counts. But the important thing is to all traders and Elliott Wavers here is not whether the counts are correct, nor whether they formed in the nicely... EW is a tool that gives us another set of glasses to look at the market and allows us to create an incredibly good risk-reward trade in the market. There are subjectivity involved here, and we could be wrong a lot, but we always have our alternate counts on hand so that we do not blindly stick to a trade when it goes against us.
So here is it... I am calling for a crash in S&P (and the US market in general) and a spike in volatility.
Good luck!
