FAKE NEWS N FEAR MONGERING WHILE PR.T "HOLDS CHINA FEET TO FIRE"
What I see is that too many people are bearish based on trade war. In my view the main reason to be bearish are high asset valuations. The twits are nothing but just jerk reactions of Pr.T. negotiating and can be used a buy-into-panic opportunity.
Negotiations go back and forth. Both sides use leverage etc.., but in the end they do come to an agreement.
The main trend of S&P 500 is UP and it is hard to fight it. As long as people have jobs, they plow money into mutual funds and the money managers are obligated to buy no matter what the news is or what the market is doing. This is the main force driving the index up -> "the dumb money". "The dumb money" is more powerful than all the technical traders and hedge funds combined with their small accounts compared to trillions of dollars in all sort of long term funds including pension, 401(k) and other long term investments. As long as people have jobs, they will buy on all dips and the withdrawals from funds will be smaller than money going in.
Sideways move over the past two years can be viewed as a consolidation and a correction since the index did not move up while corporations and civilization around the world has made progress. The longer the index goes sideways, the more probable it is that it will start going higher because the valuations are decreasing given that earnings and population growth is expanding and this is the main trend that lasted over 100 years. President Trump's twits and trade war with small tariffs can't stop that.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment only, it may be incorrect and should not be used for your investment decisions as you may lose all your money...and.. although my name says so, I am not from the future and don't know the future. I may or may not hold positions in symbols I talk about. I may change my mind and not tell you because posting stuff is not my priority. I just post things for fun based on what I learned and that may be incorrect.
Negotiations go back and forth. Both sides use leverage etc.., but in the end they do come to an agreement.
The main trend of S&P 500 is UP and it is hard to fight it. As long as people have jobs, they plow money into mutual funds and the money managers are obligated to buy no matter what the news is or what the market is doing. This is the main force driving the index up -> "the dumb money". "The dumb money" is more powerful than all the technical traders and hedge funds combined with their small accounts compared to trillions of dollars in all sort of long term funds including pension, 401(k) and other long term investments. As long as people have jobs, they will buy on all dips and the withdrawals from funds will be smaller than money going in.
Sideways move over the past two years can be viewed as a consolidation and a correction since the index did not move up while corporations and civilization around the world has made progress. The longer the index goes sideways, the more probable it is that it will start going higher because the valuations are decreasing given that earnings and population growth is expanding and this is the main trend that lasted over 100 years. President Trump's twits and trade war with small tariffs can't stop that.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment only, it may be incorrect and should not be used for your investment decisions as you may lose all your money...and.. although my name says so, I am not from the future and don't know the future. I may or may not hold positions in symbols I talk about. I may change my mind and not tell you because posting stuff is not my priority. I just post things for fun based on what I learned and that may be incorrect.
Yorum:
I am bearish on the market on medium time frame, but not on the short time frame. There can be a lot of movement up and down before the real bear market drops begin.