80% drop into the abyss for Solana? - July 2025

** The months ahead **

Examination of the 3-week chart for SOLANA reveals several compelling technical signals that suggest a potential bearish trend reversal. This analysis highlights crucial patterns traders and investors of Solana should consider.


1. Formation of a 3-Week Death Cross:

A notable bearish signal prints on the chart: a ‘3-week death cross’. This follows a ‘2-week death cross’ that preceded a significant downward movement, just as in early 2022. The death cross, where a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, is a strong indicator of a shift towards a bearish trend, especially on higher timeframes like this 3-week chart.

2. Broken Market Structure:

The chart clearly indicates a “broken market structure.” This typically occurs when the price fails to create higher highs and higher lows during an uptrend, or in this case, breaks below a significant support level that had previously held. It is absolutely possible price action backtests past support for a resistance confirmation, however on looking left, such a test never occurred on the last death cross.

3. Resistance from Previous Peaks (Head and Shoulders Pattern):

Price action leading up to the recent highs resembles a potential ‘Head and Shoulders’ pattern. The three distinct peaks, with the middle peak being the highest, suggest a classic reversal pattern. A subsequent break below the ‘neckline’ (implied support level below the peaks) would confirm the bearish outlook.

4. RSI Oscillator (bottom of chart) resistance

The lower panel of the chart displays an RSI oscillator indicator, which shows a clear pattern of "resistance." following a period of support since 2023. The RSI has clearly confirmed resistance from almost 3 years of support.

5. Solana vs Bitcoin

All the bearish observations made on the SOL-USD trading pair can be observed on the same 3 week time frame for the SOLANA - BITCOIN trading pair:

6. Potential for Significant Downside Target:

Based on the measured move from the previous death cross and breakdown and Fibonacci extension, the chart illustrates a potential downside target of approximately -70% from current levels toward the $30-40 area. While this is a projected target and not guaranteed, the historical precedent following similar bearish signals provides a context for the potential severity of the downturn if the bearish momentum continues.

Conclusion:
Considering the confluence of a 3-week death cross, broken market structure, resistance from previous peaks (suggesting a potential Head and Shoulders pattern), and the confirmation of RSI resistance, the outlook for SOLANA on the 3-week timeframe appears distinctly bearish.

Is it possible price action continues upwards after a 3200% rally? Sure.

Is it probable? No

Ww