Silver Struggling at 100 Month SMA (quickpost)
Pretty simple post, since June 2014 silver has struggled to reach the 100M SMA and every attempt or approach so far has sent the price action ultimately to the black trend line. Most recent was in spectacular fashion.
The MACD histogram is becoming one of my favorite indicators because hidden bearish divergence helps to suggest that the MACD itself will have a cleaner break of the signal line or cross below zero (in the bearish scenario).
Perhaps it is my optimism and greed here, but I am hoping for a busted falling wedge pattern where the price action falls below the trendline. Bulkowski considers that a great profit opportunity for when one goes long. thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html
As I mentioned elsewhere I am looking for improvements to my system to help me reduce by time in a trade till it performs and also looking to steady my hands once I am in a trade so I can let my winners run. The blue shows where the Volatility stop (calculated at the Daily open,not close) signaled a potential consolidation and support because there were no candle closes below the VSTOP. Likewise the orange areas show that the VSTOP is acting as resistance and we could be in distribution before leg down. I have done plenty of posts on price action and volume action and my general order of precedence is price action, then volume action, then other indicators. I have been in my short ETF for a couple of week now, somewhat patiently holding waiting for this trade to perform. As it stands currently, i would have been using the 100M SMA & VSTOP combo as my entry and not the entry I had use earlier. There is the MACD, which if I am correct would be having a failed cross.
Looking for reversals is very high risk and I have the psychological scars to show for it. But there is also a great profit motive and I am getting really close to a workable system. If I am wrong I take my losses on a clear close above the VSTOP and 100M SMA and decide what to do then.
The MACD histogram is becoming one of my favorite indicators because hidden bearish divergence helps to suggest that the MACD itself will have a cleaner break of the signal line or cross below zero (in the bearish scenario).
Perhaps it is my optimism and greed here, but I am hoping for a busted falling wedge pattern where the price action falls below the trendline. Bulkowski considers that a great profit opportunity for when one goes long. thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html
As I mentioned elsewhere I am looking for improvements to my system to help me reduce by time in a trade till it performs and also looking to steady my hands once I am in a trade so I can let my winners run. The blue shows where the Volatility stop (calculated at the Daily open,not close) signaled a potential consolidation and support because there were no candle closes below the VSTOP. Likewise the orange areas show that the VSTOP is acting as resistance and we could be in distribution before leg down. I have done plenty of posts on price action and volume action and my general order of precedence is price action, then volume action, then other indicators. I have been in my short ETF for a couple of week now, somewhat patiently holding waiting for this trade to perform. As it stands currently, i would have been using the 100M SMA & VSTOP combo as my entry and not the entry I had use earlier. There is the MACD, which if I am correct would be having a failed cross.
Looking for reversals is very high risk and I have the psychological scars to show for it. But there is also a great profit motive and I am getting really close to a workable system. If I am wrong I take my losses on a clear close above the VSTOP and 100M SMA and decide what to do then.
Yorum:
The 100 Month SMA continues to hold. Kinda annoying this might chop sideways for another month. or just another week.
İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi:
Price action has crossed over the 100M SMA convincingly and at this point holding a short does not make sense.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
