NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May22-26)
Sorry for the late post. Busy enjoying our long weekend. Happy trading everyone.
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 3.52% gain last week after trading in a range of 605 points.
• NQ blew through the 886 Fib resistance at 13640
• 13640 is now first support support
• Aug 16th high is first upside target
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU & XLRE
• Aggressive sectors are leading as defensive sectors lag.
• Currently rally continues to be led by the MEGA cap tech stocks
• European markets and Japan are currently making new highs.
• Earnings this week include reports from NVDA, LOW, COST, ZM, DKS, SNOW & ALTA
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market already pricing in rate cuts
• Debt ceiling debate continues, but market has already priced in a resolution
• Fed Heads, FOMC minutes, PCE data & speech by Yellen are potential market movers.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Bullard, Daly, Bostic & Barkin speak
Tuesday US PMI Flash, US New Homes Sales & Fed’s Logan Speaks
Wednesday Yellen Speaks, EIA Crude Inventories, FOMC Minutes & Fed’s Walker speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP & US PCE Prelim
Friday US PCE, US Durable Goods, US Consumer Spending & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday GLBE, ZM
Tuesday A, BJ, DKS, INTU, LOW, PANW, TOL, VIPS, WSM
Wednesday BNS, ELF, FUTU, NVDA, PATH, SNOW, SPLK, XPEV
Thursday ADSK, BBY, COST, DECK, DLTR, RY, TD, ULTA, WB
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ broke through 13640 Resistance easily
NQ EMAs stacked
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
Potentially positive reaction to PCE data & FOMC minutes
European markets are making new highs
Potential debt ceiling resolution
Rate pause/cut hopes
Potential positive reaction to NVDA earnings
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is overbought
Daily RSI is overbought
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to PCE & FOMC minutes
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures ect)
Recession fears may outweigh Fed rate pause hopes
Debt ceiling talks fail
Potential spike in yield & USD
Potential negative reaction to NVDA earnings
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 3.52% gain last week after trading in a range of 605 points.
• NQ blew through the 886 Fib resistance at 13640
• 13640 is now first support support
• Aug 16th high is first upside target
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU & XLRE
• Aggressive sectors are leading as defensive sectors lag.
• Currently rally continues to be led by the MEGA cap tech stocks
• European markets and Japan are currently making new highs.
• Earnings this week include reports from NVDA, LOW, COST, ZM, DKS, SNOW & ALTA
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market already pricing in rate cuts
• Debt ceiling debate continues, but market has already priced in a resolution
• Fed Heads, FOMC minutes, PCE data & speech by Yellen are potential market movers.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Bullard, Daly, Bostic & Barkin speak
Tuesday US PMI Flash, US New Homes Sales & Fed’s Logan Speaks
Wednesday Yellen Speaks, EIA Crude Inventories, FOMC Minutes & Fed’s Walker speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP & US PCE Prelim
Friday US PCE, US Durable Goods, US Consumer Spending & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday GLBE, ZM
Tuesday A, BJ, DKS, INTU, LOW, PANW, TOL, VIPS, WSM
Wednesday BNS, ELF, FUTU, NVDA, PATH, SNOW, SPLK, XPEV
Thursday ADSK, BBY, COST, DECK, DLTR, RY, TD, ULTA, WB
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ broke through 13640 Resistance easily
NQ EMAs stacked
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
Potentially positive reaction to PCE data & FOMC minutes
European markets are making new highs
Potential debt ceiling resolution
Rate pause/cut hopes
Potential positive reaction to NVDA earnings
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is overbought
Daily RSI is overbought
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to PCE & FOMC minutes
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures ect)
Recession fears may outweigh Fed rate pause hopes
Debt ceiling talks fail
Potential spike in yield & USD
Potential negative reaction to NVDA earnings
Yorum:
After mostly sideway price action yesterday the $NQ_F showing a little weakness below the Aug 16th high which should be resistance. If price rolls over look to the green arrows as first downside targets.
Yorum:
$NQ_F eventually rolled over. 1st downside target was hit at 13640 support. Watching for a bounce off this level. If trend continues to the down side my next target would be the 21 ema on the daily.
Yorum:
$NQ flushed the top of the green box coming close to the 21 ema but then reversed hard helped by positive earnings from $NVDA. First upside target if the top of the green box holds is the Aug 16th high. Expect significant resistance at that level it price gets there.
Yorum:
$NQ_F just hit my Aug 16t target. Expecting resistance in this zone so will be watching for a lower time frame reversal pattern. Explosive short covering rally into the 1.13 fib extension is possible.
