$NFLX channel rejection. Likely to drop out of channel.

12 Mar 2019

NFLX has been trading sideways for the past month or so. Having fallen out of its bearish ascending wedge, many traders were anticipating a fast decline. However, NFLX after falling out of its bearish ascending wedge, has been placed into a new channel. Ping-ponging around the new channel, NFLX's path of least resistance is down.

Daily RSI, Money Flow is all pointed down, and at this point the fall out of the Bearish Wedge pattern is the prime indicator driving the stock price. Despite still being in its channel, at this point it's on extended life before it makes a sharp move lower.

Today, NFLX is testing the upper bounds of the channel and is being rejected. With AAPL's new streaming announcement and DIS soon launching their own service, NFLX's astronomical valuation is likely to be put under pressure. This is an old narrative, but is now being manifested in the price action of the stock.

I expect that over the coming two weeks NFLX will make its way toward the lower range of the channel and fall out of the channel. At this point, it's likely to have a temporary rise to test the top of the channel again, then a sharp decline lower. This event will likely happen over the next two weeks between now and April 1st, but may extend until April 15th.

Watch NFLX carefully as this stock is a mover. Once it gets going its not unusual for it to drop 20 or 30 dollars per share or more in a single trading day.

The move may already be beginning today.

14 Mar 2019

Not

Doji forming on today's print. This party could be getting started.

15 Mar 2019

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