NASDAQ a look ahead...

3 Şub

As the NASDAQ and other major U.S. Equity Indexes face the pressure of economic uncertainty, the price action between days show that investors are not quite convinced this bull run has seen its finish line. However, we shouldn't only be looking toward private investor sentiment, but also that of the Federal Reserve's presence in the market and how the bond market reflects the Fed's position moving forward.



As shown here, the all time high for the NDQ is $22,133.22. Our position is that the NASDAQ must reclaim, retest, and continue beyond the all time high in order for us to continue our confirmation on the bull run. The path described should look as shown below...



In this instance, we can assume the bull run should continue. However, we should also be prepared for an alternate scenario where investors leave risk assets behind to chase non-risk assets (bonds for example). This scenario would look as shown below.



All though these are not the only two possible scenarios, we can most likely expect the future to play out in a similar fashion as the examples.

As for the market metrics to keep an eye on, look to US10Y for any bond yield manipulation, RRPONTSYD for market liquidity metrics, and M1V for M1 money velocity. Furthermore, keep an eye on tariffs for consumer tech ( AAPL, NVDA, TSM) and military activity ( LMT , RTX , NOC ). Lastly, keep an eye on the banking and financial sector for more than likely banking deregulations withing the coming years.

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It looks like the thumbnail sort of spoke this one into existence. Although the NASDAQ did capture an all time high, it barley peeked over it before changing its mind. Now it's showing strength at the 200 EMA so we should see some buying pressure start to pick up.