NatGas - Key reversal

It's going to be a short term trade. Maybe one day maybe 2-3 days...
Today we tested back an important breakdown level from 2014 Q4 (highlighted by blue). After the testback and a new high price started to fall immediately and printed a key reversal on the daily chart . I take the key reversals very seriously : when price making a new high and closing below the previous day's minimum is an important sign for the traders that we have no business on the long side. At the same time the key reversal very often has a strong follow through for at least one or 2 days.
As we are early in the new intermediate cycle we have to use a stop above 3,62$.

TSI crossover gave an early sign of a possible top today that's why I closed 25% of the longs.
RSI also leaving overbought...

This daily cycle might have topped here and after 2-3 days of falling we will be ranging for weeks before the next leg up can start.

So after riding this terrible rally I'm going to scalp Natty with a maximum respect and a tight stop above the key reversal.

NEW SHORT ENTRY - Short term trade.
Stop : 3.62$

Yorum:

This one is a risky short term trade . Don't go all in because my Natty calls was working well in the past. We might get stopped out tomorrow morning.
We just try to steal a little money from the Natty Bull

İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi:

Key reversal erased. We are out of this trade.

Yorum:

Now you know why I hate stops...
I think we will enter into a range before we break down into the DCL, so I'M planning to reenter very soon near to the tops. Maybe this week maybe next.

Yorum:

It seems we had a half cycle low a few days ago (at 3.19) , but now we are heading to the daily cycle top. It's too early to short now. I think we can enter a short next week . But the real good entry will be the long entry at the DCL at the end of January... I will shot a new idea when I enter short again.
Nothing to do right now here.