NatGas - Might be a perfect time for longs
It's starting to be a textbook rally. We had a nice intermediate decline after 3 daily cycles.
We tagged the 200 SMA and turned up from there. We had the 50% pullback of the previous ICL (FIBO 50). And we broke out from the down channel.
MACD crossed over and heading to the upside. RSI is entering into overbought territory but it can print an overbought zigzag for days (highlighted by green). TSI the same.
We stopped a few days at the 20 EMA and the Bollinger Band middle line. The next level is at 2.93 BB upper line.
The only thing I don't like that Natty is famous of its scary panic sellings at the end of the intermediate cycle (Highlighted by red) This time the decline was not so steep. Though we reached my original targets ( FIBO 50 and 200 SMA) I would have liked to see 2 more down days with a real panic as price breaks below the 200 SMA . So I hope it's not a trap and we don't get one more short daily cycle with a panic selling and with a break down below the 200 SMA.
That's the reason I was not adding at the follow through day.
If everything is right we are in the first daily cycle and price will not break below the 200 SMA. Usually the first daily cycle is not so strong. So don't be frustrated if UGAZ is not printing a 100% rally in December. The big UGAZ rally will come in the 2nd daily cycle (blue rectangle) . That is the point where I plan to enter heavily in this market.
The following weeks we are going to test the previous highs at 3.33 - maybe marginally break above it .
LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea : we are long already. I don't suggest to enter or add to the position here)
We tagged the 200 SMA and turned up from there. We had the 50% pullback of the previous ICL (FIBO 50). And we broke out from the down channel.
MACD crossed over and heading to the upside. RSI is entering into overbought territory but it can print an overbought zigzag for days (highlighted by green). TSI the same.
We stopped a few days at the 20 EMA and the Bollinger Band middle line. The next level is at 2.93 BB upper line.
The only thing I don't like that Natty is famous of its scary panic sellings at the end of the intermediate cycle (Highlighted by red) This time the decline was not so steep. Though we reached my original targets ( FIBO 50 and 200 SMA) I would have liked to see 2 more down days with a real panic as price breaks below the 200 SMA . So I hope it's not a trap and we don't get one more short daily cycle with a panic selling and with a break down below the 200 SMA.
That's the reason I was not adding at the follow through day.
If everything is right we are in the first daily cycle and price will not break below the 200 SMA. Usually the first daily cycle is not so strong. So don't be frustrated if UGAZ is not printing a 100% rally in December. The big UGAZ rally will come in the 2nd daily cycle (blue rectangle) . That is the point where I plan to enter heavily in this market.
The following weeks we are going to test the previous highs at 3.33 - maybe marginally break above it .
LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea : we are long already. I don't suggest to enter or add to the position here)
1. No shorts from here
2.No new long entry.
I think we will run to new highs in this daily cycle in the next 10 days, but there is no guarantee for that.
I suggest to hold longs all who missed the rally wait for the first daily cycle low.
I underestimated the first daily cycle rally : it's very powerful. Hopefully the second daily cycle will be strong as well...