GBP/USD on the monthly time frame as you can see the 5 distinctively large candlesticks are from the 2008 recession where price dropped 6000 pipis in 7 months since then we have been trying to recover. The last 10 months have seen a massive decline in price as US Dollar begins to gain in strength. GBP looks as though it is set to reach 2008 lows of 1.4925 - 1.3948 Hence the indication of a possible recession occurring within the next few years. I wouldn't expect a recovery until price breaks above 1.5600..