Elliott Wave Favors More Downside in GBPJPY

Decline from 2.28.2023 is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 2.28 high, wave 1 ended at 160.02 and rally in wave 2 ended at 164.14. Pair resumes lower in wave 3 towards 159.19, and wave 4 ended at 160.49. Last leg lower wave 5 ended at 158.51 which completed wave (1). Wave (2) corrective rally ended at 163.34 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave W ended at 162.18, and pullback in wave X ended at 158.94. Wave Y higher ended at 163.34 which completed wave (2).

Pair resumes lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 160.67 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 161.86. Pair has resumed lower in wave ((iii)) and broken below wave ((i)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 159.91 and wave (ii) rally ended at 161.01. Expect pair to continue lower within wave (iii) of ((iii)). A break below wave (1) at 158.51 would confirm the bearish view and rule out a double correction. Near term, as far as the pivot at 163.34 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swings for further downside.