Swing Trade Entry - Technical & Fundamental Setup
GBPCAD offers an attractive entry price at 2.00 even for a long term swing setup attempt for targets in the 2.20 area.
From a Fundamental perspective, The UK remains to be the most likely to be starting it's rate hike cycle next. At the moment, none of the other Major currencies have even given any slight indication of the same. The unemployment numbers are good, and Services sector, which comprises the majority of GDP remains strong and growing. Inflation continues to be a problem, however a global one, thus putting the UK ahead of the list of candidates for normalization.
The Canadian dollar, slightly bullish as of late, as a repercussion of a miss price due to an expected rate cut that didn't materialize, as well as a temporary rally in oil. However, with oil under pressure in the long term, the upside will be limited for CAD. Please see link to related ideas, where the Oil chart has still not been able to break it's down trendline from Nov 2015.
The Technical setup shows:
1. Long term channel dating several years
2. 2015 Low's - Major Support
3. Price near smaller term channel
4. Price bouncing from 88.6 % Fib level from 2015 lows to 2016 highs
5. 4H Hammer Candle in the making
This trade setup can be played as a range targeting the top of the smaller channel, or a swing setup targeting long term targets of 2.20
Risk to Reward very favorable from this area with stops below the 2015 spike low.
From a Fundamental perspective, The UK remains to be the most likely to be starting it's rate hike cycle next. At the moment, none of the other Major currencies have even given any slight indication of the same. The unemployment numbers are good, and Services sector, which comprises the majority of GDP remains strong and growing. Inflation continues to be a problem, however a global one, thus putting the UK ahead of the list of candidates for normalization.
The Canadian dollar, slightly bullish as of late, as a repercussion of a miss price due to an expected rate cut that didn't materialize, as well as a temporary rally in oil. However, with oil under pressure in the long term, the upside will be limited for CAD. Please see link to related ideas, where the Oil chart has still not been able to break it's down trendline from Nov 2015.
The Technical setup shows:
1. Long term channel dating several years
2. 2015 Low's - Major Support
3. Price near smaller term channel
4. Price bouncing from 88.6 % Fib level from 2015 lows to 2016 highs
5. 4H Hammer Candle in the making
This trade setup can be played as a range targeting the top of the smaller channel, or a swing setup targeting long term targets of 2.20
Risk to Reward very favorable from this area with stops below the 2015 spike low.
