I touched on this currency pair last week and noted the following on the monthly timeframe (italics):
Longer-term price action on the monthly timeframe rejected a key area of resistance in July at $1.1233, a base accompanied by the 50-month simple moving average at $1.1164. Subsequent flow observed selling in August, followed by the beginning of September also echoing a bearish tone, down -1.7% MTD. You will note that the trend on the monthly scale has been lower since 2008, emphasising the pullback from the $0.9536 low (September 2022) and the recent rejection of $1.1233 resistance appears to have been enough to attract a sell-on-rally theme in the longer term. The test for sellers will come at monthly support from $1.0516; clearance of this level would help corroborate a downside bias and likely encourage follow-through selling.
The monthly chart’s downside bias was recently aided by price action on the daily timeframe, crossing through bids at support from $1.0689 and unearthing the monthly support level highlighted above at $1.0516. Ultimately, technicians will likely be anticipating $1.0689 to hold as resistance this week.
Meanwhile, across the page on the H1 chart, Friday completed an AB=CD bearish formation at $1.0682 (denoted by a 100% projection ratio) just south of the current daily resistance, accompanied by a H1 1.618% Fibonacci extension ratio at $1.0683. Assuming the H1 bearish formation holds steady at the underside of daily resistance, this could prompt further selling this week, zeroing in on Thursday’s lows around $1.0632, closely followed by the $1.06 handle and then H1 support coming in at $1.0572.
Longer-term price action on the monthly timeframe rejected a key area of resistance in July at $1.1233, a base accompanied by the 50-month simple moving average at $1.1164. Subsequent flow observed selling in August, followed by the beginning of September also echoing a bearish tone, down -1.7% MTD. You will note that the trend on the monthly scale has been lower since 2008, emphasising the pullback from the $0.9536 low (September 2022) and the recent rejection of $1.1233 resistance appears to have been enough to attract a sell-on-rally theme in the longer term. The test for sellers will come at monthly support from $1.0516; clearance of this level would help corroborate a downside bias and likely encourage follow-through selling.
The monthly chart’s downside bias was recently aided by price action on the daily timeframe, crossing through bids at support from $1.0689 and unearthing the monthly support level highlighted above at $1.0516. Ultimately, technicians will likely be anticipating $1.0689 to hold as resistance this week.
Meanwhile, across the page on the H1 chart, Friday completed an AB=CD bearish formation at $1.0682 (denoted by a 100% projection ratio) just south of the current daily resistance, accompanied by a H1 1.618% Fibonacci extension ratio at $1.0683. Assuming the H1 bearish formation holds steady at the underside of daily resistance, this could prompt further selling this week, zeroing in on Thursday’s lows around $1.0632, closely followed by the $1.06 handle and then H1 support coming in at $1.0572.