Dollar Index to Reach and Break its Sept 2022 High
Dollar index weekly chart still looks incredibly bullish long-term.
First, we have a basic falling wedge pattern with targets at 1x and 1.5x measured moves up from the breakout of its wedge.
As confluence, I've drawn an trend-based fib extension from the Sept 2022 High -> July 2023 low -> October 2023's high from the wedge break (inverted).
Items of Note:
For TP 1
Present resistance to a move up is the ~106-108 area around the last two sets of weekly highs from Oct 23' and those made last month, or the 0% fib on the chart at 107.348. Once we get above that we should see it head towards TP 1 and the Sept-Oct 2022 highs.
For TP 2
The final test will be breaking above TP 1 and the 50% fib (September 2022 high) before making a new high around TP 2.
Beyond TP 1 and 2
I expect it will continue above both targets once they've been reached, even with a decent possibility of seeing 1980s ATHs.
First, we have a basic falling wedge pattern with targets at 1x and 1.5x measured moves up from the breakout of its wedge.
As confluence, I've drawn an trend-based fib extension from the Sept 2022 High -> July 2023 low -> October 2023's high from the wedge break (inverted).
Items of Note:
- Very strong Wedge break back in August - October of 2023
- Very weak re-test attempt in December of 2023, making a higher low than the July 2023 low that led into the breakout, only wicked down to top of a long-term support level; failing to close at or below.
- Falling Wedge's measured targets TP 1 and 2 line up precisely with its 0.382 and 0.786 fibs from its trend-based fib.
For TP 1
Present resistance to a move up is the ~106-108 area around the last two sets of weekly highs from Oct 23' and those made last month, or the 0% fib on the chart at 107.348. Once we get above that we should see it head towards TP 1 and the Sept-Oct 2022 highs.
For TP 2
The final test will be breaking above TP 1 and the 50% fib (September 2022 high) before making a new high around TP 2.
Beyond TP 1 and 2
I expect it will continue above both targets once they've been reached, even with a decent possibility of seeing 1980s ATHs.
Links to earlier / related ideas below.
