I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “The 1h chart looks toppy af’ with a very bearish wick from 12 hours ago currently being re explored. Nevertheless support continues to move up. This has been a common theme over the past couple weeks” / $6,400 - $6,700 = no trade zone
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,585 | R: $6,617
BTCUSDSHORTS: So far they have failed to make a new local high after creating a higher low.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0477%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Both currently acting as support and trying to make a bullish crossover.
50 & 128 MA’s: Price is back below 50 MA. A close below it could initiate some bearish momentum | 128: -0.7%
Volume: Dwindling to 2 year lows
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,600 | 0.5 = $6,759 | 0.382 = $6,918
Candlestick analysis: Weekly dojis indicate that the range does not have much room left to tighten. Pulling back off 4 hour shooting star from yesterday.
Ichimoku Cloud: Attempting to make bullish TK’ cross on daily. Price is currently falling out of 12h cloud. 4h cloud remains fully bullish
TD’ Sequential: 1w: G2 | 1d: bearish price flip | 12h: G4 | 4h: R4 | 1h: 3 candle correction after a R9.
Visible Range: Gap in volume between $6,800 and $7,250 represents prime opportunity for a bull trap/fake breakout.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.37% | 24h: -0.6% | 1w: +1.44% | 2w: +2.43% | 1m: +7.12%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $6,600
Trendline: Has violated trend/triangle that connects 7/24 - 9/4. Next up is the top of the descending triangle which can be drawn anywhere from $6,900 - $7,000
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Broke up at $6,676, but failed to close above. New down should print at $6,514 later today.
On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s triangle and is testing it for resistance.
ADX: Yesterday it looked like the ADX was turning up, but now it looks like it is going to retest support / try to create a new low.
Chaikin Money Flow: Forming a triple top / possible c&h. Expect 0.2 to hold as resistance.
RSI (14 setting): Has broken out of it’s triangle to the upside and has supported a throwback.
Stoch: Will bullish re cross on daily turn into another lower high?
Summary: Nothing new to report so I will spend today discussing my process. One of the main reasons that I started doing the Bitcoin’ Daily Update was to help keep myself engaged without being attached.
When the market is this boring I would much prefer to take a week off and completely forget about the price action. That is what I have done in the past and it has cost me too much in opportunity.
In order to combat that I started entering into positions prematurely. I find it much easier to stay engaged with the price movements when I have an open position, however that is not an acceptable reason to enter a position. This ended up costing me capital and confidence.
The Daily Update forces me to stay engaged even when I am not in a position and/or when volatility has died down. This keeps me on my toes and prepares me for when the market decides to make a move.
I have an order set at $6,389 to open a short if/when the price falls below $6,400 support. Until then we wait.
How do you stay in touch with the markets while in a no trade zone and/or waiting for consolidation to end?
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “The 1h chart looks toppy af’ with a very bearish wick from 12 hours ago currently being re explored. Nevertheless support continues to move up. This has been a common theme over the past couple weeks” / $6,400 - $6,700 = no trade zone
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,585 | R: $6,617
BTCUSDSHORTS: So far they have failed to make a new local high after creating a higher low.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0477%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Both currently acting as support and trying to make a bullish crossover.
50 & 128 MA’s: Price is back below 50 MA. A close below it could initiate some bearish momentum | 128: -0.7%
Volume: Dwindling to 2 year lows
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,600 | 0.5 = $6,759 | 0.382 = $6,918
Candlestick analysis: Weekly dojis indicate that the range does not have much room left to tighten. Pulling back off 4 hour shooting star from yesterday.
Ichimoku Cloud: Attempting to make bullish TK’ cross on daily. Price is currently falling out of 12h cloud. 4h cloud remains fully bullish
TD’ Sequential: 1w: G2 | 1d: bearish price flip | 12h: G4 | 4h: R4 | 1h: 3 candle correction after a R9.
Visible Range: Gap in volume between $6,800 and $7,250 represents prime opportunity for a bull trap/fake breakout.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.37% | 24h: -0.6% | 1w: +1.44% | 2w: +2.43% | 1m: +7.12%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $6,600
Trendline: Has violated trend/triangle that connects 7/24 - 9/4. Next up is the top of the descending triangle which can be drawn anywhere from $6,900 - $7,000
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Broke up at $6,676, but failed to close above. New down should print at $6,514 later today.
On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s triangle and is testing it for resistance.
ADX: Yesterday it looked like the ADX was turning up, but now it looks like it is going to retest support / try to create a new low.
Chaikin Money Flow: Forming a triple top / possible c&h. Expect 0.2 to hold as resistance.
RSI (14 setting): Has broken out of it’s triangle to the upside and has supported a throwback.
Stoch: Will bullish re cross on daily turn into another lower high?
Summary: Nothing new to report so I will spend today discussing my process. One of the main reasons that I started doing the Bitcoin’ Daily Update was to help keep myself engaged without being attached.
When the market is this boring I would much prefer to take a week off and completely forget about the price action. That is what I have done in the past and it has cost me too much in opportunity.
In order to combat that I started entering into positions prematurely. I find it much easier to stay engaged with the price movements when I have an open position, however that is not an acceptable reason to enter a position. This ended up costing me capital and confidence.
The Daily Update forces me to stay engaged even when I am not in a position and/or when volatility has died down. This keeps me on my toes and prepares me for when the market decides to make a move.
I have an order set at $6,389 to open a short if/when the price falls below $6,400 support. Until then we wait.
How do you stay in touch with the markets while in a no trade zone and/or waiting for consolidation to end?
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/