Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
Consensio: Fully Bullish
Patterns: Start of a 4h bear channel
Horizontals: R: $11,636 | S: $11,341
Trendline: Parallel Channel
Parabolic SAR: In a recent podcast Tyler and I analyzed the way that Trading View is calculating the SAR. We have referred to original Welles Wilder documentation and determined that Trading View is not calculating it correctly based on the original formula. Therefore I am using the original calculation which puts the Weekly SAR at $13,880 instead of $10,452 which is where Trading View puts it.To learn more about the Parabolic SAR calculation click here and stay tuned for our solution. We plan to provide an alternative script and make it available for free on TV within the next week.
Futures Curve: Contango with 3.96% spread
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0259%
BTCUSDSHORTS: I am no longer going to track the BTCUSDSHORT ticker which gathers data from Bitfinex. That is due to the ability to claim a position on that exchange opposed to closing. This has huge effects on how the long:short ratio is calculated. So much so that I no longer think it is a good metric to track. Click here to learn more about claiming vs closing and how it affects long:short date.
TD’ Sequential: Just got a weekly combo 13 and aggressive 13. Weekly A13 called the bottom.
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly wicked off the top of the cloud perfectly.
Daily bearish TK cross above the cloud. 4h no trade zone.
Relative Strength Index:
Average Directional Index: Weekly is testing major resistance which indicates an exhausted trend.
Daily rolled over, if it can roll back up > 20 then it would be a strong sign of continuation. Until then it is a strong indicator of continued consolidation / correction.
Price Action: 24h: +2.32% | 2w: +6.28% | 1m: +50.33%
Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA
Stochastic Oscillator: First weekly sell signal since December 2017
Summary: The most important technical to me right now is the weekly high volume shooting star that we got last Sunday. Shooting star and dragonfly dojis are generally my single most important indicator or a short - medium term reversal. That is especially true when on high volume.
Last week’s bearish wick and above average selling volume are the main reasons why I am expecting a major correction over the following weeks - months.
That being said right now is the time to pay very close attention. If we can breakthrough the top of the bear channel and then get back above $12,000 then all signs would be a go for continuation.
I am not expecting that but I am preparing for it. I have a strong bearish bias due to the high volume shooting star and therefore I have been selling spot and opening shorts over the past week. If the current market structure breaks to the upside then it is essential I am prepared to close shorts and reopen longs. Again I do not expect that but I do want to prepare for it.
As it stands I am confident that we will get another leg down to retest four figures and I have been positioning myself accordingly. That being said I am diligently preparing for alternative outcomes.
Strong opinions loosely held
Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
Consensio: Fully Bullish
Patterns: Start of a 4h bear channel
Horizontals: R: $11,636 | S: $11,341
Trendline: Parallel Channel
Parabolic SAR: In a recent podcast Tyler and I analyzed the way that Trading View is calculating the SAR. We have referred to original Welles Wilder documentation and determined that Trading View is not calculating it correctly based on the original formula. Therefore I am using the original calculation which puts the Weekly SAR at $13,880 instead of $10,452 which is where Trading View puts it.To learn more about the Parabolic SAR calculation click here and stay tuned for our solution. We plan to provide an alternative script and make it available for free on TV within the next week.
Futures Curve: Contango with 3.96% spread
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0259%
BTCUSDSHORTS: I am no longer going to track the BTCUSDSHORT ticker which gathers data from Bitfinex. That is due to the ability to claim a position on that exchange opposed to closing. This has huge effects on how the long:short ratio is calculated. So much so that I no longer think it is a good metric to track. Click here to learn more about claiming vs closing and how it affects long:short date.
TD’ Sequential: Just got a weekly combo 13 and aggressive 13. Weekly A13 called the bottom.
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly wicked off the top of the cloud perfectly.
Relative Strength Index:
Average Directional Index: Weekly is testing major resistance which indicates an exhausted trend.
Price Action: 24h: +2.32% | 2w: +6.28% | 1m: +50.33%
Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA
Stochastic Oscillator: First weekly sell signal since December 2017
Summary: The most important technical to me right now is the weekly high volume shooting star that we got last Sunday. Shooting star and dragonfly dojis are generally my single most important indicator or a short - medium term reversal. That is especially true when on high volume.
Last week’s bearish wick and above average selling volume are the main reasons why I am expecting a major correction over the following weeks - months.
That being said right now is the time to pay very close attention. If we can breakthrough the top of the bear channel and then get back above $12,000 then all signs would be a go for continuation.
I am not expecting that but I am preparing for it. I have a strong bearish bias due to the high volume shooting star and therefore I have been selling spot and opening shorts over the past week. If the current market structure breaks to the upside then it is essential I am prepared to close shorts and reopen longs. Again I do not expect that but I do want to prepare for it.
As it stands I am confident that we will get another leg down to retest four figures and I have been positioning myself accordingly. That being said I am diligently preparing for alternative outcomes.
Strong opinions loosely held
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