PRICE ACTION
The 1W chart may be the most important of the 4 charts to watch here; with last week closing above the 52W Moving Average. As we saw with LTCUSD in recent weeks; the break above this resistance is a significant signal of overall sentiment. However, in contrast, the price action has direct overhead resistance – in the shape of the $6000 price range that acted as support for much of the 2018 timeline. 13W MA has crossed above the 26W; which signals a level of price confidence – though $5000 remains critical as support before the reality of a deep retrace.
Comparatively, the other 4 charts are flashing at least orange warning signals...
The 5M chart has an exponential curvature to its movement; with highs extending higher and faster than the lows – which suggests that there is low liquidity on both sides of the market (bulls are breaking up; bears can push back down). Volume is mixed; with some big volume spikes but no follow through action – again suggesting that liquidity is thin.
Moving to the 4H chart; we are potentially seeing a wedge forming. A clean break of $6000 would invalidate this; and for bullish traders the ideal would be to push the highs into forming a rising channel setup. The risk here though; is that RSI is forming a lower high which is diverging against the price action.
Finally, the 1D chart has looked very strong since faking out a drop below the 28D Moving Average. In the previous BTCUSD update; the key takeaway was:
“If the bulls manage to find a way to break out of this position; that is surely a strong setup for the rest of the year...”
That was 15% below the current price. That is a strong bullish statement. However, my position remains that of a neutral bear until a clean break of $6000 occurs. To be clear; there is vastly more profit opportunity on the bullish cycle – so we should hope for a breakout – but we do not trade on hopes and dreams!
RSI on the 1D is showing a third lower high against continued higher highs on the price action. Statistically, this suggests there is – at least a short term – a swing coming. Margin shorters agree; as they are up 1.7x long positions. This is important to watch.
OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX)
Long: 1.93 Days
Short: 3.28 Days
RELATIVE STRENGTHS
ON BALANCE VOLUME
KEY PRICE AREAS
Resistance: 6000, 6800, 7500
Support: 5490 (52W MA), 5327 (28D MA), 5000
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
The 1W chart may be the most important of the 4 charts to watch here; with last week closing above the 52W Moving Average. As we saw with LTCUSD in recent weeks; the break above this resistance is a significant signal of overall sentiment. However, in contrast, the price action has direct overhead resistance – in the shape of the $6000 price range that acted as support for much of the 2018 timeline. 13W MA has crossed above the 26W; which signals a level of price confidence – though $5000 remains critical as support before the reality of a deep retrace.
Comparatively, the other 4 charts are flashing at least orange warning signals...
The 5M chart has an exponential curvature to its movement; with highs extending higher and faster than the lows – which suggests that there is low liquidity on both sides of the market (bulls are breaking up; bears can push back down). Volume is mixed; with some big volume spikes but no follow through action – again suggesting that liquidity is thin.
Moving to the 4H chart; we are potentially seeing a wedge forming. A clean break of $6000 would invalidate this; and for bullish traders the ideal would be to push the highs into forming a rising channel setup. The risk here though; is that RSI is forming a lower high which is diverging against the price action.
Finally, the 1D chart has looked very strong since faking out a drop below the 28D Moving Average. In the previous BTCUSD update; the key takeaway was:
“If the bulls manage to find a way to break out of this position; that is surely a strong setup for the rest of the year...”
That was 15% below the current price. That is a strong bullish statement. However, my position remains that of a neutral bear until a clean break of $6000 occurs. To be clear; there is vastly more profit opportunity on the bullish cycle – so we should hope for a breakout – but we do not trade on hopes and dreams!
RSI on the 1D is showing a third lower high against continued higher highs on the price action. Statistically, this suggests there is – at least a short term – a swing coming. Margin shorters agree; as they are up 1.7x long positions. This is important to watch.
OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX)
Long: 1.93 Days
Short: 3.28 Days
RELATIVE STRENGTHS
- Micro (5m): Lower High/Possible Bearish Divergence
- Short Term (4h): Bearish Divergence
- Mid Term (1D): Bearish Divergence
- Macro (1W): Hidden Bearish
ON BALANCE VOLUME
- Mid Term (1D): Falling
- Macro (1W): Falling
KEY PRICE AREAS
Resistance: 6000, 6800, 7500
Support: 5490 (52W MA), 5327 (28D MA), 5000
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS