LIFUI. O. LOR. $BTC #BTC $SPX $ES My Thoughts: BLACK SWAN EVENT?

Yes, I am very bullish on Bitcoin - with the exception of a black swan event. In my opinion, a reasonable black swan event would be the failure of SPX to hold the $4050 level. This is a level I have been observing for some time and have previously discussed. Currently, I believe that failure for SPX to hold $4050 would result in a crash or bear market. In this event, I do not believe that a sweep of the 2020 low on spx is out of the question. In my opinion, such an occurrence would have significant impact for risk in the cryptocurrency market. If that were to take place, I do believe it is probable for Bitcoin to retest the $4000 - $6000 region.

To summarize my strategy:

I am out of spot. I have long said that any bounces are for getting out of spot - not for buying. I believe the best risk-reward in crypto is at lower prices - as I’ve always said, crashes do happen. I have been day-trading the crypto market.
I am prepared to go all in @ $20,000. However, IF SPX fails to hold $4050 and I see siginficant sell-side pressure, I will take that as an indication of a bear market or crash brewing. In that event, I will be prepared to go into crypto at significantly lower prices with BTC @ $4000-$6000.

Trading is not a one sided game. We must consider the possibilities and manage risk and our expectations. The idea I have illustrated here is essentially what I deem a black-swan event. The only thing worse than this would be something comparable to a nuclear war, in my opinion.

This trade idea is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor of any kind.

Please do your own analysis, responsibly manage your risk, and stay safe.

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