BTCUSD UPDATE: BAU (ie, Business As Usual)
(PLEASE LIKE AND LEAVE COMMENTS - THANKS!) Late last week when BTC was at around 9600 I published an update here in Trading View saying that absolutely nothing had changed and that this was just a correction and we were still in a parabolic uptrend, and that - unless BTC was going to reverse the trend from here, we should expect a big green candle next (see idea referenced below).
We got our big green candle and now BTC is pushing up against the top of the down-sloping channel it's been in since Feb. 13. I am not expecting BTC to break out of this channel today or tomorrow, although it's certainly possible. I think it's more likely, though - especially since this big green candle came over a weekend - that we wick back down to retest the breakout area at around 9750 first, as BTC loves to test support. Once that confirms as support, then we would have our real breakout move, probably mid to late next week. If you aren't already in a long from 7ks or lower 8ks or 9ks, a buy at around 9750, assuming we go back down there, would be a good buy IMHO.
Once again, and as in every single correction we've had thus far in this uptrend, people started to get really bearish and started calling for a trend reversal and going back to 8.5k or even 7k. I believe this is a really common mistake among retail traders - to assume that every correction is a trend reversal, and instead of waiting to buy the dip, they short it but end up with a massive green candle shoved in their face. Likewise in bear markets/downtrends -- instead of waiting to short the price spike, they buy it, thinking that the move is a trend reversal, and end up with a big red candle shoved in their face.
Anyway - that's my two cents to take or leave as you wish. Ple
Cheers and happy trading!
We got our big green candle and now BTC is pushing up against the top of the down-sloping channel it's been in since Feb. 13. I am not expecting BTC to break out of this channel today or tomorrow, although it's certainly possible. I think it's more likely, though - especially since this big green candle came over a weekend - that we wick back down to retest the breakout area at around 9750 first, as BTC loves to test support. Once that confirms as support, then we would have our real breakout move, probably mid to late next week. If you aren't already in a long from 7ks or lower 8ks or 9ks, a buy at around 9750, assuming we go back down there, would be a good buy IMHO.
Once again, and as in every single correction we've had thus far in this uptrend, people started to get really bearish and started calling for a trend reversal and going back to 8.5k or even 7k. I believe this is a really common mistake among retail traders - to assume that every correction is a trend reversal, and instead of waiting to buy the dip, they short it but end up with a massive green candle shoved in their face. Likewise in bear markets/downtrends -- instead of waiting to short the price spike, they buy it, thinking that the move is a trend reversal, and end up with a big red candle shoved in their face.
Anyway - that's my two cents to take or leave as you wish. Ple
Cheers and happy trading!
Yorum:
Hmmm... I may have been wrong about us not breaking out of the channel today or tomorrow. We'll see. I really would expect at least a wick down to the 9750-9800 area before we keep going, but maybe not :)
