Bitcoin: Waiting For Higher High.

Bitcoin is in the process of establishing a higher low formation around the 29,300 area on the daily chart. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. In this seasonally slow time of the year, a major catalyst will have to come along in order to create enough momentum for a higher high to be realized. In this context, a reasonable level to expect for a higher high is the 32 to 33K area. I have not made any adjustments to the swing trade signal that I shared from 29,600 recently. The adjustment I anticipate is moving the stop to break even at the appropriate reward/risk ratio.

As the month continues, I am anticipating the next two weeks to be the PEAK of SLOW season. Again this is a function of average volume. If you must trade in such an environment, it is imperative to follow a strict set of rules. Even this will not fully protect you from the noise, but if you can minimize mistakes or stop outs, you are more likely to preserve your capital and CONFIDENCE. This alone will put your in a better position to capitalize on the opportunities that will appear when the markets get back to normal volume.

Profit for the retail trader comes from the MISTAKES of other traders. The less experience, the more of a chance of mistakes. Who do you think you are up against in this current environment? Mistake making Tik Tok content consumers or pros/algos? Pro poker players know to avoid tight tables, and know that highest probability of profit comes from prime time (drunken tourists).

I realized a long time ago that sitting in front of a computer for hours WAITING for criteria to lines up is not productive. Human nature in terms of boredom, confirmation bias, and other psychological factors can hinder overall performance, ESPECIALLY in low volume environments. With the technology that is available today, I figured there had to be a better way and that is what lead to the development of my trade scanner. The thing is, if you don't know what specific market inefficiency you are looking for, a screener or automation won't help anyway.

The scanner waits for MY criteria to be met and then produces a raw idea. The more advanced version even generates stop loss and take profit prices at the time of notification. While it doesn't produce a 100% win rate (nothing can) it certainly helps me to be much more selective without having to spend time evaluating charts. Less trades is MORE in this game, especially for the next two weeks.

Like I wrote earlier, profit comes from mistakes. These mistakes are rooted in human nature. Human nature is our great obstacle to success in this game. If you can't get over yourself, you will only serve as a profit source for others. The first step is to stop consuming the information EVERYONE else consumes. Stop assigning value to the WRONG information as a consequence of conventional logic. Learn how the game works from a not so obvious level, like micro structure, price action, momentum, market efficiency, etc. If "news" is your source for decisions, let me know because I will be more than happy to do the opposite.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.